The Obama Win Will be Larger than the Polls Predict

[corplinx]

Aside from Acorn registering dead pets across the country, there is tons of legitimate registration going on. People working for the unions going to door to door as Nyar mentioned the other day.

Today, I found out that pro-Obama-orgs are also going into college classes and blanketing them for unregistered voters. A student I talked to said Obama-activists have come into his classroom three times this week trying to get people to register.

Folks, the win is going to be bigger than the polls. The GOP will claim its dead voters, but in truth it will be the result of the largest community organization exercise since WW2.

Maybe going from community organizer to president may not sound like the best resume for being a president, but it seems to be a great resume for getting elected.

 

[not_so_new]

You could be correct about the original thread title. I just posted this in another tread but I think it might also back up your point.

"Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say.."

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.

"The Bradley effect has mutated. We are seeing it in several states, but the reverse effect is much stronger," said Greenwald. "We didn't have a chance to look at these effects before on a national level. The prolonged Democratic primary process this year gave us a chance to look for this effect in 32 primaries in which the same two candidates faced each other."

 

[BenBurch]

I've been saying this for a while, corplinx. 375+ Obama and perhaps McCain as low as 50 EV. That is *if* the GOTV efforts hit the mark. Now, some of that is already baked in the cake as Obama's people are driving folks to early voting centers NOW.

 

[DavidJames]

I have no reason to believe this other then my personal cynicism about the general public, but I still think McCain will win. McCain is doing nothing positive to earn the votes, but he trying to hit most every hot button "joe six pack" has. I said months ago this would be an ugly election and I think the ugly has only started.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[geni]

Aside from Acorn registering dead pets across the country, there is tons of legitimate registration going on. People working for the unions going to door to door as Nyar mentioned the other day.

Today, I found out that pro-Obama-orgs are also going into college classes and blanketing them for unregistered voters. A student I talked to said Obama-activists have come into his classroom three times this week trying to get people to register.

Under 25s? You could drop them outside the polling both on a day where they had nothing else to do and you would still get a sub 50% turnout.

While Obama might be able to get the turnout amoung the young up a bit I doubt it will be that significant.

 

[Bikewer]

At home I've got a link to a website that was profiled on NPR's Science Friday. The guys have put together software that samples all available polls on a daily basis, and also runs thousands of simulated elections based on the results.
They claim much higher accuracy than the typical news-service polls, and save for the post-Republican-convention "bump", they have been showing Obama winning by a considerably larger margin than the typical national poll would indicate.
I'll post the link when I get home.

 

[madurobob]

At home I've got a link to a website that was profiled on NPR's Science Friday. The guys have put together software that samples all available polls on a daily basis, and also runs thousands of simulated elections based on the results.
They claim much higher accuracy than the typical news-service polls, and save for the post-Republican-convention "bump", they have been showing Obama winning by a considerably larger margin than the typical national poll would indicate.
I'll post the link when I get home.

MIght have been these guys?

 

[RPG Advocate]

At home I've got a link to a website that was profiled on NPR's Science Friday. The guys have put together software that samples all available polls on a daily basis, and also runs thousands of simulated elections based on the results.
They claim much higher accuracy than the typical news-service polls, and save for the post-Republican-convention "bump", they have been showing Obama winning by a considerably larger margin than the typical national poll would indicate.
I'll post the link when I get home.

im in ur elections, simulating ur outcomes

 

[corplinx]

Under 25s? You could drop them outside the polling both on a day where they had nothing else to do and you would still get a sub 50% turnout.

While Obama might be able to get the turnout amoung the young up a bit I doubt it will be that significant.

Where there's smoke there's fire. College drives and neighborhood canvassing could just be the most visible things. There are many organized efforts underway to make it an Obama nation.

McCain is trying to win votes. Obama is trying to win them but also creating them. 300 votes her or there mean electoral wins. Candidates who openly advocate corporate tax cuts, capital gains tax cuts, deregulations, or tax reform will be unelectable.

I think the GOP should be running scared. Obama isn't just setting up a win. He is setting up a legacy that is very anti-wealth and anti-markets.

 

[leftysergeant]

If the GOP can be prevented from purging enough voters, and if the machines are working in a lawful manner, and if recount laws are respected, this may be the most embarrassing loss the GOP has suffered in about seventy-odd years.

 

[MattusMaximus]

I agree with the OP - Obama will likely pwn McCain on Election Day. His GOTV machine is already cranking up in early voting states.

With the demographics of younger voters going to the Dems, Obama is helping to set up a lasting legacy of more liberal politics in the nation that could persist for a generation. It could be FDR all over again folks.

I think it's about time the pendulum swung the other way

 

[Upchurch]

MIght have been these guys?

That is awesome.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Under 25s? You could drop them outside the polling both on a day where they had nothing else to do and you would still get a sub 50% turnout.

While Obama might be able to get the turnout amoung the young up a bit I doubt it will be that significant.

The last candidate that excited under-25s as much as Obama was Reagan. We all know how that election turned out.

 

[joobz]

I think the GOP should be running scared. Obama isn't just setting up a win. He is setting up a legacy that is very anti-wealth and anti-markets.

I think the market is establishing that legacy.
What's the DOW right now?
8000,
no wait, 9000
no, it's 2,
no it's back to 12,bazillion.
no it's 8000 again...

 

[Peephole]

There might also be a 2-3% cellphone effect:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/estimating-cellphone-effect-22-points.html

And in early voting in Georgia the African-American share of the electorate is up to 40%. Probably won't hold on election day, but it bodes well.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/sh...008/10/01/has_the_obama_surge_begun_near.html

Under 25s? You could drop them outside the polling both on a day where they had nothing else to do and you would still get a sub 50% turnout.

While Obama might be able to get the turnout amoung the young up a bit I doubt it will be that significant.

 

[not_so_new]

The last candidate that excited under-25s as much as Obama was Reagan. We all know how that election turned out.

And carry that idea out a little further. I heard something a while back stating the statistical average that a young voter will say with the party they first voted for was very high (I don't want to quote an inaccurate % here).

The point is that this is probably true and if you look at the years since Reagan we see a strong shift to the GOP side. Even discounting Clinton's two terms the general slant in politics in the US has been to the right and that might be due in no small part to the young Reagan voters still siding with the GOP to this day.

IF this is the case (and I don't know how accurate the above is) then yes we could be witnessing a major shift in the political landscape of America which (if all my dreams come true) might include the marginalization of the far right religious control in the GOP.



That……



…… or…………….





McCain is really going to win on election day and I will have to take a dive from my office building

 

[Whiplash]

Obama is likely to win, obviously. But it won't be a landslide. This is wishful thinking folks. You'll see. But I agree he's very likely to win, and handily. But landslide? Wake up.

 

[chipmunk stew]

Obama is likely to win, obviously. But it won't be a landslide. This is wishful thinking folks. You'll see. But I agree he's very likely to win, and handily. But landslide? Wake up.

Perhaps it is wishful thinking. But if it is, it's wishful thinking based on numbers. Do you have numbers, or just a gut feeling, that it won't be a landslide?

 

[leftysergeant]

It gets better. How many of those young Reaganites entered the business world thinking themselves bullet-proof, only to find themselves, twenty-eight years later, bleeding to death as the fragile structure the Reagan built falls apart around them? That sort of thing will adjust a guy's attitude a bit.

The Obama youth voters will see a bleak future if the Reagan/Bush legacy survives. If Obama can even slightly better their prospects, he has them voting Democratic for life.

 

[Peephole]

Today's trackers have Obama ahead by an average of 7.8% and he's slated to win over 350 votes in the electoral college. That's coming pretty close to landslide territory.