My Predictions about Coming Debate

[dudalb]

Worthy of comment? Perhaps.

But I don't agree when folks try to extrapolate her pronunciation of this word to some interpretation of her depth of knowledge in this subject.

I agree that making a fuss because somebody uses a regional pronouciation of a word is stupid and silly. The Whole "Nooclear" fuss was embarassing.
Some Dems back in 2006 here in California made a big deal about how Arnie pronounces Califorinia with a definent German twinge. It backfired bigtime.

 

[dudalb]

I have also noted that the Right Wing Talk Show hosts are going crazy about how Ifill is a tool of the Obama campaign who will make Palin look bad delibertely. I guess the idea is that if Palin does poorly, it is because of Media Bias, but if she does well, it is because she is so smart that even the biased mod could not bring her down.
Funny, you heard nothing about this when the McCain Campaign approved the moderator.

 

[kallsop]

I wonder if the Obama groupie moderator, Ifill, will show her true colors or bite her tongue to prove she was a good choice. Put money on the former.

Change and hope and words.

 

[Dr Adequate]

I agree that making a fuss because somebody uses a regional pronouciation of a word is stupid and silly.

"Regional pronunciation"? Is The Simpsons set in Alaska, then?

It's not regional, it's just wrong.

This is why her handlers "made a fuss". If it was a regionalism, there wouldn't be a problem.

Still, maybe her speechwriters are elitists, what with their swanky college pronunciation and not eating raw moose blubber.

 

[DavidJames]

I don;t think the VP debate with have much impact on the race either way.

Ultimately I'm not sure it will either, I'm talking about those brief bumps we see from such events.

Why are you so convinced of a McCain victory when the economic issues seem to breaking for Obama in a big way?

I've followed presidential politics for most of my voting life. Most of the time, my lowest expectations, have come to pass. Regarding presidential elections, I'm very cynical. This one, I believe, will end up being won for McCain due to subtle race issues (from both Republicans and Democrats).

I had a conversation with my mother the other day. She never voted for a Republican in her life and will vote for Obama. She's lives above the Mason Dixon line, here was what she added after telling me about her choice. I know he will bring in a lot of his black friends, but that's okay.

Race is an issue. My cynicism says it will make the difference.

For a while now, I've expected McCain to start hammering Obama on terrorism. I think scaring the crap out of people and trying to show Obama doesn't have the guts to fight it would be effective to both energize the base and persuade those on the fence. So far that hasn't happened and I'm surprised.

 

[boloboffin]

Ifill Derangement Syndrome is a sad thing to witness.

 

[ProbeX]

I really doubt Palin will give that many idiotic responses; she will use Glitttering Genralaties as much as possible.

She continues to screw herself over with this tactic. When she gets general or vague or tangential, someone asks for clarification. That's when she either repeats herself again (which looks dense), and/or spins off into some stranger direction.

That's why I'm confident there will be at least a couple of good zingers at the debate that will generate nostalgia and get added to the Palin Youtube collection.

 

[ProbeX]

Ultimately I'm not sure it will either, I'm talking about those brief bumps we see from such events.I've followed presidential politics for most of my voting life. Most of the time, my lowest expectations, have come to pass. Regarding presidential elections, I'm very cynical. This one, I believe, will end up being won for McCain due to subtle race issues (from both Republicans and Democrats).

With all due respect, it could be that you haven't noticed just how much this country's racial politics has changed. Not sure how old you are, but I do recall just a few months ago, many folks belonging to the older generations were stating that Obama would not be able to win the primaries because of the color of his skin, much less the election.

In fact, I recall older relatives saying this at a family gathering during the contest in South Carolina. Ironically, the tv was on in the background, and the news commentator was announcing Obama's overwhelming victory there - one of a string of victories that he would go on to win.

 

[DavidJames]

With all due respect, it could be that you haven't noticed just how much this country's racial politics has changed. Not sure how old you are, but I do recall just a few months ago, many folks belonging to the older generations were stating that Obama would not be able to win the primaries because of the color of his skin, much less the election.

In fact, I recall older relatives saying this at a family gathering during the contest in South Carolina. Ironically, the tv was on in the background, and the news commentator was announcing Obama's overwhelming victory there - one of a string of victories that he would go on to win.

I'm 55 and of course I've noticed that how much things have changed. They've changed a ton and for the better and I'm glad for it. That doesn't mean a significant portion of Americans are completely color blind.

Regarding the example I gave you of my mother, I doubt she would have voted for a black 30 years ago, even a black Democrat. But, her comment about "bringing in his black friends" is quite telling. Talk about backhanded color blindness.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do.

 

[Wangler]

Ifill Derangement Syndrome is a sad thing to witness.

Yeah, imagine it going on for, say, the last four weeks!

 

[ProbeX]

I'm 55 and of course I've noticed that how much things have changed. They've changed a ton and for the better and I'm glad for it.

Yeah, I'm glad too. Well, I had to ask because some people really don't seem to get how much things have changed.

That doesn't mean a significant portion of Americans are completely color blind.

Warning: This may sound pedantic. It's a subject I'm impassioned about.

This thing about "color blindness" sorta kills me. I should hope a significant number of Americans never do become "color blind". Attempts to ignore color (ethnicity) speaks more to discomfort w/difference, or even racist impulses IMO, then admitting to noticing differences. I've heard some ppl say that Obama "transcends color"/ "transcends race", for example ... as if his color/ethnicity is something to ignore so he can pass some viability test.

I'm pretty sure the people who voted for Obama during the primaries can plainly see Obama is Black. Many say they will vote for this Black man in the GE too.

Regarding the example I gave you of my mother, I doubt she would have voted for a black 30 years ago, even a black Democrat. But, her comment about "bringing in his black friends" is quite telling. Talk about backhanded color blindness.

I think there's a widespread perception that a person is, or should be, without racial bias if s/he intends to vote for Obama. I submit that isn't necessarily true. My guess is that most of us at times have some or other racist impulses toward various ethnic and cultural groups. Me? Guilty as charged. And I'm certainly voting for Obama.

 

[Pookster]

I've reached the conclusion that the less Biden interacts with Palin, the better. He can't completely ignore her, but he shouldn't try to engage her with his answers very much. Call it the prevent defense, which doesn't always work out so well. But it helps minimize many other risks that can make him look bad -- condescending, saying something patronizing, giving Palin an opening for cheap points, etc. Disagree with her, yes. Point out the flaws in the things she says. But don't open doors for her to score points with. She's shown she can be witty and folksy with her answers in prior debates. He shouldn't give her the chance to wag her finger at him.

Let Palin sink or swim on her own. Even if she gives a solid performance, it likely does little to the dynamics of the race. The first impressions have already been set.

 

[davefoc]

I think this is a case where the McCain camp would settle for a tie out of this thing.

They've gotten as much of a bounce out of the Palin selection as they are likely to get. They got the she's a woman bounce, they got the she's a fundamentalist Christian bounce, they got the we don't know who she is but she must be great bounce and they got the she's a pretty good public speaker bounce.

So there's not a lot more positive for the McCain camp possible to come out of this pick. But there is the potential for a substantial loss. Right now the problems that Palin have had have been somewhat isolated because the audience for the venues where she has had problems is much smaller than the audience for the debate will be. A performance at the level of her interviews with Katie Couric might eliminate any chances for McCain.

But the likely scenario is that both candidates do reasonably well and how the general public sees the results of the debate is determined by the views they held before the debate. The net effect of the debate on the election will be too small to detect.

The only big win for Palin possible is some kind of major Biden failure and while that is possible he has been doing this kind of stuff for a long time and a major failure seems unlikely although a few gaffes that will be written off by people leaning to Obama seems like a good possibility given Biden's history.

 

[chipmunk stew]

I've reached the conclusion that the less Biden interacts with Palin, the better. He can't completely ignore her, but he shouldn't try to engage her with his answers very much. Call it the prevent defense, which doesn't always work out so well. But it helps minimize many other risks that can make him look bad -- condescending, saying something patronizing, giving Palin an opening for cheap points, etc. Disagree with her, yes. Point out the flaws in the things she says. But don't open doors for her to score points with. She's shown she can be witty and folksy with her answers in prior debates. He shouldn't give her the chance to wag her finger at him.

Let Palin sink or swim on her own. Even if she gives a solid performance, it likely does little to the dynamics of the race. The first impressions have already been set.

Right. He shouldn't directly challenge her. He should just riff off her and talk directly to the camera about Obama and McCain. All attacks should be aimed at McCain; none at Palin.

 

[ProbeX]

Along those lines, I've been imagining that Biden will attack McCain a lot, and hope that Palin tries rushing to his defense. She tends to misrepresent McCain's agenda at times (see Couric interview).

Never thought I'd say this, but am starting to get a little nervous for Palin as the debate approaches. One part of me is all about the entertainment value of potential Palin or Biden gaffes. The other part of me doesn't want to watch people possibly embarrassing themselves. And something in me still says Palin - despite low expectations - might really flub up simply because it's almost certain that she'll be asked to clarify her talking points.

 

[Nogbad]

Is it a similar format to the last debate? There wasn't a huge amount of interaction between Obama and McCain it was primarily them setting their policy stalls out (or trying to kick the other stall over. If so then she will have to respond to the moderator and the exam questions more than Biden. If she goes for all sound bites it won't stack up the longer the piece goes on.

Of course if one or the other loses their cool then that should guarantee loads of you tube footage

 

[Pookster]

Is it a similar format to the last debate? There wasn't a huge amount of interaction between Obama and McCain it was primarily them setting their policy stalls out (or trying to kick the other stall over. If so then she will have to respond to the moderator and the exam questions more than Biden. If she goes for all sound bites it won't stack up the longer the piece goes on.

Of course if one or the other loses their cool then that should guarantee loads of you tube footage

There is supposed to be less time for interaction ... something like 2 minutes where it was 7 or 8 with the debate last week.

 

[davefoc]

Right. He shouldn't directly challenge her. He should just riff off her and talk directly to the camera about Obama and McCain. All attacks should be aimed at McCain; none at Palin.

This sounds exactly right to me. I'll bet that's what he does.

Interesting a tie makes Biden happy because they're ahead and a tie makes McCain supporters happy because the downside potential is so much higher than the upside potential.

Of course, McCain supporters would like major Biden gaffes that might help them get back in the game, but that just seems really unlikely to me. If Biden can't figure out that this his moment to make the safe plays maybe he doesn't deserve to be the VP.

barely related sports digression:
Many years ago there was an NFL game where one team was ahead and all they needed were simple quarter back kneel down plays to run out the clock (at this point eleven davefoc's could have won the game). The coach called some kind of handoff play. The ball was fumbled and the team lost. The next day they fired the coach. Biden might keep that in mind. Not that he'd be off the ticket, but this election is his to lose tonight. He can't win it, but he can sure lose it.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Worthy of comment? Perhaps.

But I don't agree when folks try to extrapolate her pronunciation of this word to some interpretation of her depth of knowledge in this subject.

I agree. After all, wasn't Jimmy Carter a "nucular" engineer?

I admit that almost any of these language things bug the heck out of me. (I just read a mis-transliteration of something Palin or McCain said that involved "reigning in" something.)

 

[Pookster]

No matter what happens tonight, I doubt the media focuses on it for very long. The House still has to vote on the revised bailout package tomorrow. The next Presidential debate is Tuesday. I read something over at fivethirtyone.com just a few moments ago that is still very appropriate ...


"A major caveat. The fact that the race can swing this dramatically in this short a time reflects the truth that a few days in presidential politics can be a lifetime. We are both close to the end and yet nowhere near."