Russia invades Georgia

[dudalb]

Capel Dodger sounds an awful lot like someone in the Uk in 1938 justifying selling the Czechs down the river though.

 

[Darth Rotor]

German Stuka pilots were making precision strikes 70 years ago. And if I recall correctly, the Georgian air force flies SU25's. Slow and sturdy, perfect for poorly trained pilots to hit small targets with.

That word, and the threshold for what precision means, does not mean what you think it means.

Also, poorly trained pilots can't hit much of anything.

Bombing tunnels? I'd need to dig into some planning products and a bunch of photography to see if bombing is a suitable way to close those tunnels, but I'm not working close air support or strike anymore, so I don't have access to the materials I'd need to give you a solid analysis.

Not convinced bombing would do what some suggest it would do, given the problem of loft, delivery angle, etcetera, and Russians having already demonstrated at least local command of the air previously. Recall the Georgian UAV shot down a few months back, by a Russian fighter?

Georgian military folk aren't stupid. I suspect a bombing mission for those tunnels was assessed, and rejected, based on Russian capability and likelihood of a counter.

Not sure.

@ dubalb: the Godwin cookie cutter is a tiresome device.

DR

 

[DanishDynamite]

The Russians invading Georgia is the last spasm of the Soviet Union played out.

Or so I hope.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The Russians invading Georgia is the last spasm of the Soviet Union played out.

Or so I hope.

The pendulum swings. Once the wall fell, the Soviet Union broke up, so nothing the Russians do is "the Soviet Union" or a spasm of it, since Yeltsin was in office.

As noted above by a number of posters, Putin's reaffirmation of Russia as a Power, or if you like, a new version of the czarist Russian Empire refashioned, is not likely to stop anytime soon.

Putin is in a very powerful political position in Russia, and is unlikely to back down any time soon from trying to improve Russia's position. Hell, it's his job, as PM, as much as it is Medvedev's job as president.

DR

 

[DanishDynamite]

The pendulum swings. Once the wall fell, the Soviet Union broke up, so nothing the Russians do is "the Soviet Union" or a spasm of it, since Yeltsin was in office.

As noted above by a number of posters, Putin's reaffirmation of Russia as a Power, or if you like, a new version of the czarist Russian Empire refashioned, is not likely to stop anytime soon.

Putin is in a very powerful political position in Russia, and is unlikely to back down any time soon from trying to improve Russia's position. Hell, it's his job, as PM, as much as it is Medvedev's job as president.

DR

Very interesting historical analyis, but hardly relevant.

The Russian economy, while big on differcification of wealth, is still low on overall wealth. Putin and his appointed president may sputter and spit, but they know they are no match to the West in a real confrontation.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Very interesting historical analyis, but hardly relevant.

Relevant given the assertion you made, that what is going on has anything to do with Soviet Union. It doesn't. Putin is smart enough to look into the future, not dwell on the past.

The Russian economy, while big on differcification of wealth, is still low on overall wealth. Putin and his appointed president may sputter and spit, but they know they are no match to the West in a real confrontation.

OK, let's add time to your analysis. Also, before we proceed, can you give me a sense of what you mean by " a real confrontation" between The West and Russia.

I'll ask that we both consider that neither the West nor Russia wants a nuclear exchange, lose lose, and go from there.

OK?

DR

 

[geni]

Very interesting historical analyis, but hardly relevant.

The Russian economy, while big on differcification of wealth, is still low on overall wealth. Putin and his appointed president may sputter and spit, but they know they are no match to the West in a real confrontation.

Yes and no. Sure head to head they lose but there is a lot of stuff short of that. Below the level of all out war how much force does the west have. With the US busy in Iraq and afganistan and the UK with simular issues about the only first class western forces with the capcity to act would be France, Germany and to an extent Italy and Japan. France was/is looking to cut back it's forces further and Germany doesn't like operateing outside it's boarders.

 

[gtc]

Perfect for getting shot out of the sky by Russian fighters, too. And Russian planes have been violating Georgian air space for quite some time - remember when a Russian fighter shot down a Georgian reconnaisance drone back in April?

Ssshh. You'll ruin their narrative.

 

[CapelDodger]

Capel Dodger sounds an awful lot like someone in the Uk in 1938 justifying selling the Czechs down the river though.

As I've mentioned before, had I been my current age in '38 I'd have been saying "Told you so". The Czech insistance on the Sudetenland as part of its "national territory" at the break-up of the Austrian and German Empires brought it nothing but trouble. It provided Hitler with a pretext to challenge the post-War settlement on the grounds of self-determination and humanitarian protection of an oppressed minority.

The Georgian insistence on their "national territory" has proven just as stupid. Actually more stupid, since the Russians have taught them their lesson twice already.

 

[CapelDodger]

Aye, well my starry eyed ideas about self-determination for anyone that wants may have some practical kinks that needs to be worked out. I suspect not everyone can have self-determination in the same geographic area...

Georgia can easily ignore Ossetia and Akhazia as geographic areas. If Georgia's anywhere it's down in the valley, to the left of Azerbaijan.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Georgia can easily ignore Ossetia and Akhazia as geographic areas. If Georgia's anywhere it's down in the valley, to the left of Azerbaijan.

I keep getting the sense that you are familiar with a book I recently read, called "On Borrowed Time."

It was about the year leading up to the Sudetenland and the invasion of Poland, and how the Powers of Europe mucked about and let it happen. Meanwhile, the nationalists in Poland and Czech land carried on as though the Powers would restrain the German ambitions, all while numerous internal German political moves to put a leash on Adolf kept getting finessed by his success at making the Powers back down until the British drew a line in the sand, in Poland, and the French were euchered into doing the same thing, but neither mobilized and so could not strike while Adolf was face first into Poland. The book gave me a better understanding of the fascist/nationalist parties in Slovakia, Hungary, Czech land, Poland, and Austria and how the Third Reich harnessed those elements for their own purposes.

DR

 

[egslim]

Perfect for getting shot out of the sky by Russian fighters, too. And Russian planes have been violating Georgian air space for quite some time - remember when a Russian fighter shot down a Georgian reconnaisance drone back in April?

You're only making your claim that Georgia sent groundforces into South Ossetia with the purpose to head off the Russians sound more ridiculous. Without the tunnel destroyed that move would be certain and instantaneous defeat, both political and militarily.

 

[egslim]

The Russian economy, while big on differcification of wealth, is still low on overall wealth. Putin and his appointed president may sputter and spit, but they know they are no match to the West in a real confrontation.

It's economy is growing very fast, though.

And face it, any "real confrontation" between the West and Russia is suicide for both with all those nukes.

Also, while the West is much stronger in absolute figures, it is far more stretched - some would say overstretched - too.

 

[Wire]

On Soviet Union and Russia. You say Russia is not Soviet Union, perhaps but nowadays Russia does consider Soviet Union as a period of Russian Empire. Russians say Stalin and Lenin were great leaders and fiercely defend their atrocities (which can very well exceed those of Hitler) against Russians themselves and many other nations. Some even claim that the Soviet occupation in Eastern European countries was natural, because "they were just getting back the territories the West had stolen" them after WWI. Putin for example said Soviet Union ceded Baltics to Germany with the Brest-Litovsk treaty and got them "back" with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Also, look at this recently published map again: http://kribu.net/~loophole/map.jpg

Many of you also claim Putin is a rational smart leader who looks into future. But he has called the collaps of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastophe of the 20th century; this is what we see as a great liberation for multiple nations. He and many other Russian officials regularily accuse us being Nazi; apparently they don't know anything of Godwin. Last year Russian news portals floated a piece which described how Putin's father was killed by locals in Estonia during the war and how he now personally hates Estonia. IMHO he's just as mad as any other "great leader".

As I've mentioned before, had I been my current age in '38 I'd have been saying "Told you so". The Czech insistance on the Sudetenland as part of its "national territory" at the break-up of the Austrian and German Empires brought it nothing but trouble. It provided Hitler with a pretext to challenge the post-War settlement on the grounds of self-determination and humanitarian protection of an oppressed minority.

Imagine a few hundred Russians in Narva proclaiming autonomy, taking up some weapons, rounding up and expelling ethnic Estonians from the area. If the government tries to move in police and home guard units to restore "constitutional order" Russia will respond with air strikes and dessants to "protect it's compatriots". It can happen in a blink because there are Russian army bases within sight from Estonian border and they have been practising attacking Estonia. Would you also accuse Estonians being stupid and insisting Narva was an Estonian territory? And the opinion of the other 60000 Russians living there is irrelevant because they are not going to oppose invaders of the same ethnicity anyway.

 

[Darth Rotor]

On Soviet Union and Russia. You say Russia is not Soviet Union, perhaps but nowadays Russia does consider Soviet Union as a period of Russian Empire.

Agree.

Russians say Stalin and Lenin were great leaders and fiercely defend their atrocities (which can very well exceed those of Hitler) against Russians themselves and many other nations.

Of course they do, now. Seems Kruschev didn't seem so fond of Stalin, eh? Lenin and Stalin were two different sorts of leaders, however.

Some even claim that the Soviet occupation in Eastern European countries was natural, because "they were just getting back the territories the West had stolen" them after WWI.

Yes, and German maps of the 1960's still showed Eastern Prussia as German soil, and so on.

Putin for example said Soviet Union ceded Baltics to Germany with the Brest-Litovsk treaty and got them "back" with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

I can see where he takes that position. Pre UN, the Powers did a lot of horse trading of small nations/territories, simply because they could.

Also, look at this recently published map again: http://kribu.net/~loophole/map.jpg

No surprise there.

Many of you also claim Putin is a rational smart leader who looks into future. But he has called the collaps of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastophe of the 20th century; this is what we see as a great liberation for multiple nations.

He can both feel the fall of the Soviet Union was a bad thing, and he can look into the future.

Last year Russian news portals floated a piece which described how Putin's father was killed by locals in Estonia during the war and how he now personally hates Estonia. IMHO he's just as mad as any other "great leader".

Mad I'd dispute. When you try to demonize someone by considering them insane, you may well be the one with issues in perspective. No question, however, Putin is hard case.

Imagine a few hundred Russians in Narva proclaiming autonomy, taking up some weapons, rounding up and expelling ethnic Estonians from the area. If the government tries to move in police and home guard units to restore "constitutional order" Russia will respond with air strikes and dessants to "protect it's compatriots". It can happen in a blink because there are Russian army bases within sight from Estonian border and they have been practising attacking Estonia. Would you also accuse Estonians being stupid and insisting Narva was an Estonian territory? And the opinion of the other 60000 Russians living there is irrelevant because they are not going to oppose invaders of the same ethnicity anyway.

Tribal fun and games is a very old story. Why should the present be any different?

DR

 

[Klimax]

@ dubalb: the Godwin cookie cutter is a tiresome device.

DR

Do you want to say,that Putin/Medvedev did not copied/improved Hitler plan???

Hell,this is perfect example of modern false-flag operation(correct term?).And invoking "godwining thread" is invalid as it is correct comparsion and future is unfortunately going to show truth(Putin's plan).

Very few people here trusts Russians and we regard what they say as propaganda and definitely would back Georgians.

Last words:Nobody should trust Putin,except that "Russina empire" might be around corner...

Klimax

 

[Childlike Empress]

OSCE report points finger at Georgia for S. Ossetia crisis

30/08/2008 17:07 BERLIN, August 30 (RIA Novosti) - The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has accumulated evidence pointing to "numerous wrong decisions" made by Georgian leaders that led to a military crisis with Russia, Der Spiegel said on Saturday.

In a report to be published in its Monday edition, OSCE military observers in the Caucasus described detailed planning by Georgia to move into South Ossetia which contributed to the crisis, the German magazine said.

The report also backed up Russian claims that the Georgian offensive was already in full swing by the time Russian troops and armored vehicles entered the Roksky Tunnel, on the border with Russia and South Ossetia, to protect its peacekeepers and the civilian population.

The OSCE report also contains suspected war crimes committed by Georgians, who ordered attacks on sleeping South Ossetian civilians.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080830/116412855.html

edit: useful: The 2008 Crisis in the Caucasus: A Unified Timeline, August 7-16.

 

[CapelDodger]

I keep getting the sense that you are familiar with a book I recently read, called "On Borrowed Time."

It was about the year leading up to the Sudetenland and the invasion of Poland, and how the Powers of Europe mucked about and let it happen. Meanwhile, the nationalists in Poland and Czech land carried on as though the Powers would restrain the German ambitions, all while numerous internal German political moves to put a leash on Adolf kept getting finessed by his success at making the Powers back down until the British drew a line in the sand, in Poland, and the French were euchered into doing the same thing, but neither mobilized and so could not strike while Adolf was face first into Poland. The book gave me a better understanding of the fascist/nationalist parties in Slovakia, Hungary, Czech land, Poland, and Austria and how the Third Reich harnessed those elements for their own purposes.

DR

I've not read that particular book, but I've read a great deal on the inter-war period (it was even on the History curriculum at school).

What you've got there is a flavour of what happened when four European Empires fell apart during or after the Great War - something which nobody had planned for, expected, or even intended in 1914. The Tsarist Empire had become a Socialist pariah in the throes of civil war, the French were in a murderously vindictive mood, the British were concentrating on the Middle East, and Woodrow Wilson was pushing national self-determination in a situation he was utterly ignorant of (something which he later congessed to). It wasn't going to end well unless a great deal of care was taken over the post-war settlement. A great deal more than was actually taken.

New countries sprang up that had no previous existence; old countries sprang up in new places; borders were drawn or re-drawn all over Eastern Europe with no regard to populations. Meanwhile the French insisted on rubbing Germany's nose in its defeat, guaranteeing German revanchism. The inevitable followed.

The parallels with the post-Soviet Eastern European settlement are obvious. If the readjustment stops at South Ossetia and Abkhazia we'll have dodged a bullet.

 

[CapelDodger]

Do you want to say,that Putin/Medvedev did not copied/improved Hitler plan???

I'm happy to say it. Hitler's intention was to dismantle and absorb Czechoslovakia prior to dismantling and absorbing Poland. There's no sign that Russia is intending to dismantle and absorb Georgia. They both used the excuse of protecting their own nationals or clients, but that's hardly new - the Romans were using it way back, the British Imperialists used it to absorb the Transvaal and Orange Free State, the US used it to justify its expansionary Indian Wars.

So there's no good reason for bringing Hitler into it.

 

[CapelDodger]

You're only making your claim that Georgia sent groundforces into South Ossetia with the purpose to head off the Russians sound more ridiculous. Without the tunnel destroyed that move would be certain and instantaneous defeat, both political and militarily.

Even with the tunnel destroyed, defeat would be swift and certain. The mountains are passable and occupied by friendlies. Mountains occupied by unfriendlies are the real bitch (cf. Afghanistan).