How did you arrive at the 1 in 29 chance?
Merged Odds Standard for Preliminary Test
- Thread starter Rodney
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Nope, I get your number when I do it now. I might have grabbed the estimated value rather than the exact value by mistake.
Either way I was still way off
I always forget how harshly small changes rip odds around on coinflips.Does this mean you are opposed to any time constraint at all, or that you feel a single day of testing is too limiting? The JREF normally depends on volunteers to carry out the actual tests, and requesting weeks or months of their time would make it difficult to find willing parties.
This would be assuming that the final test uses the same protocol as the preliminary, which was mentioned by someone as the current plan (twice 1:1,000 for a combined 1:1,000,000). Succeeding twice in a row in something with a chance of 1 in 537, given 10,000 attempts, has odds of about 1 in 29.
Should the final test use a different protocol, the chance of course cannot be calculated without specifying that protocol.
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I think most testing can be carried out in a single day, but contingencies should be specified. For example, if Pavel were to obtain 26-29 hits in the initial 40 trials, I think the testing should be continued either that same day or in the near future. Bear in mind that the odds of obtaining between 26-29 hits by luck is only about 4%. So, if Pavel really doesn't have a paranormal ability, the volunteers won't likely have to put in any overtime.
Even I don't think the million dollar should be given away that easily. I was under the impression that the odds standard for the final test would be much higher -- on the order of 1 in a million.
But how would you know the ability was "paranormal" and not chance? Why can't Pavel (or any claimant) publicly perform what you're suggesting before taking up the JREF's time? Don't you think he would be raking in the dosh if he actually had the claimed ability?
As remirol has alread pointed out:
M.
To restate what others have repeatedly pointed out: The fundamental point that you are missing is that the JREF MDC is not designed to ferret out paranormal ability wherever it might exist, nor is it intended as a resource for individuals who think they might have a paranormal ability but who aren't sure or haven't refined it yet to conduct further research into their own ability. It is a challenge to demonstrate what you claim to be able to do. A prerequisite is that you actually know what you claim to be able to do.
pavel_do
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I have to brake my silence here...
Where and when?
I am ready.. If any one interested please let me know.Not necessarily. If, indeed, Pavel can perform at a 70% hit rate where 50% would be expected by chance, that wouldn't be much of a nightclub act.
Gr8wight
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No, but it'd be good enough to make a killing at the tables in Vegas. See, Rodney, nightclub acts are just that: acts. Applicants for the MDC are claiming their "abilities" are not acts. Yet, when those things that nightclub performers do in their acts are controlled for in an MDC challenge test, those "abilities" always - ALWAYS* - disappear. That is the whole point of the JREF One Million Dollar Challenge, and why having it presided over by an accomplished stage magician in the best possible scenario. It demonstrates that all these people* who claim paranormal abilities are really doing nothing more than a cheesy nightclub act. Even if they aren't aware of that fact for themselves.
*so far
How so?
Seeing what card is coming up next for you in Blackjack or Poker would be very useful.
Linda
Startz
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http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=3874502#post3874502
My memory is that the main reason for rejection was that the protocol was "too complicated."
Gr8wight
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Rodney didn't really need that spelled out for him, Linda. He only asked that question to allow him to conveniently ignore the the rest of my post. Standard Rodney tactics. He can't address the meat of my post, so he chooses to address the throw-away lead-in comment, and hopes everyone will miss the fact that he completely ignored the most salient point.
Coveredinbeeees
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Ah, but if you're distracted by strong odours, bright colours and similar images to the one on the card in question then you're out of luck. Also the dealer might not let you hold the shoe in your hand and write down guesses for 3 minutes before deciding whether to hit or stick.
Pavel's ability, as described, would be a bit of a chocolate teapot in the casino.
Rasmus
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Playing roulette gives you a 1:37 (or 1:38) chance of guessing the right number, and the payout is 1:36 (1:37).
Now imagine you could predict the number in 7 of 10 cases, i.e. about 26 times as good as chance! Walk into a casino with 1000$ -heck even 100 or 50 would make you rich pretty damned fast. Just bet 10% of what you came with on whichever number you think ought to come up first. On most days, you will lose 3 times and win 7 times, i.e. you'd reach 2560$ if you started off with 100. (And if I got the payouts right ...)
Of course, you could simply bet half or a third of your winnings on any subsequent bet. Let's go with a third, shall we?
You bet 10$ and earn 360$. Of these, you bet 120$ and get 4320$. (If you lose, just repeat the bet up to two times, or start over with your 10$ from the beginning...). If you win just one more game for 1440$ you get kicked out of the casino 51,840$ richer. After just three bets! (And that's just what you get in the last bet. There's a few thousand bucks in the previous ones, of course. I am too lazy to add those up.)
Now, chances of the first three bets working out at 0.7 each are just over 0.3. So it probably wouldn't be too hard to distribute the bets over a few days and several different casinos to max out your winnings before being banned, right?
I would quit my day jobs if I had odds like that, and Mr Randi and his cheapo challenge would be the least of my worries.
Jackalgirl
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I know that this has been pointed out before, but the ultimate point of the Challenge is to challenge people who claim regular and consistent paranormal ability. In other words, it's aimed squarely at the Sylvia Brownes and Uri Gellars of the world.
I know that the wording says that it's open to anyone who can demonstrate a paranormal power under controlled testing conditions. But as has also been pointed out, there's a limit. This isn't a long-term research vehicle. There's a limit on the amount of time that the JREF is willing to pour into a single individual (especially when they have other applicants to consider), and that time limit controls the amount of testing that is available in order to reach the 1:1000 chance bar.
This means that some individuals -- those individuals whose proported psychic power is very subtle or inconsistent and who therefore need a really long time in order to demonstrate that their abilities are functioning significantly above chance -- are not going to be suitable candidates for the JREF Challenge.
As for Pavel: I totally agree with you that Pavel should not accept a protocol he does not feel absolutely confident that he could pass -- if he cannot accept a protocol that is designed according to JREF's requirements in terms of time vs. probability, then he is not a good candidate for the JREF Challenge.
This doesn't mean, however, that he would be unsuitable for other skeptical societies' challenges, or that someone who is interested in the proper research (by this I mean "properly controlled) of these sorts of things should be discouraged from working with Pavel to test his abilities over the long term.
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As far as I know, Pavel hasn't claimed that he can see what card is coming up in Blackjack or Poker, nor has he claimed he can see where a Roulette wheel will land. Rather, he has claimed that, given two envelopes, one containing a photograph and one containing a blank sheet of photographic paper, he can identify the photograph significantly more often than half the time.
If you're right, the following sentence should be corrected:
"At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."
See http://www.randi.org/joom/content/view/38/31/