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Musharraf resigns

Gurdur said:
I just love armchair warrior chickenhawks all agog to volunteer others to do the fighting.
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Going to be worse, mark my words, going to be worse, much worse. Going to be all confused, instable, and with a government with no real control over the military -- and a military with no real control over the country. And elements of the ISI running wild giving a little help to their friends.

IOW: the USA is stuffed, because while the Pakistani govt will not be hostile, it will not be in control either.

BTW, anyone here insane enough to believe that the USA can afford a massive occupation of or even just big war in Pakistan as well as the current problems in Iraq and Afghanistan?
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I don't believe the present government will last a month. Bhutto may have been able to do it but she is no longer around.
 
Darat said:
They've had the same PM etc. since about March - why do you think this changes anything?
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It is just a gut feeling. Musharraf had the support from the military and it is now uncertain if the military will accept the new government:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...sharraf_19edi.ART.State.Edition1.4d9055d.html

The two governing coalition partners, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, are united only in their enmity toward Mr. Musharraf. With him gone, their coalition could face new strains. Military commanders, historically impatient with the niceties of civilian rule, will be hard-pressed to remain uninvolved.
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a_unique_person said:
The important point about all this is that it is the result of a legal process being followed, not military or illegal. That should help to ensure the result is more stable.
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I sure hope it is stable. I know I find the idea of Pakistan breaking down into anarchy highly unsettling.
 
Matteo Martini said:
Pakistanis has raised their heads and got rid of the American puppy, who got bribed with 10 billion dollars of Americans`s tax payers money
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Do you think, overall, that this will be a good thing or a bad thing for the average person in Pakistan?
 
Darat said:
They've had the same PM etc. since about March - why do you think this changes anything?
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Texas said:
It is just a gut feeling. Musharraf had the support from the military and it is now uncertain if the military will accept the new government:
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1) Because the civilian govt has already illustrated its impotence by very recently promising to put the ISI under civilian control -- only to be forced into a humiliating backdown by the army, who will now keep official control and unofficial more-or-less control over ISI.

2) The ISI is ever more a law unto itself. This has dramatic consequences regarding Al-Qaeda, Afghanistan and also terrorism directed against India.

3) The Pakistani army is already fighting in the Tribal Areas, and has lost a lot of soldiers recently doing so. This, plus the recent past storming of the Red Mosque, means the trust of the populace at large in the army has now disappeared. This has bad consequences for the cities, Islamabad etc., and also for conflict with India caused by the Islamist guerillas / terrorists slipping into Kashmir.

4) The populace at large has been very badly hit by big rises in the cost of living --- caused by oil, food and seed-grain prices rising rapidly and highly. Again, this means coming huge unrest in Islamabad etc., just at the time when the army are feeling put-upon, used & abused, and have lost the cooperation of the populace.

6) The present civilian govt, with no real control over spiraling prices, no control over the army, utterly no control over the ISI, is far more concerned with protecting its MP's from being pursued in court later for corruption, embezzlement and the like. The two parties in govt are quite corrupt. They will become more so.

7) Those thinking the USA can just then intervene as they will in the Tribal Areas forget that such foreign intervention will cause a potential massive rise
in terrorism, and not just from the Tribal Areas, or the Kashmir border, or even going into Afghanistan, but also big rises in Al-Qaida sympathy and so on from the cities, from Islamabad and so on.

8) Musharref is now a spent force. He personally has also lost the trust of the army. He is no longer a quantity to be reckoned with.

9) There is no politician or army person with anywhere near the support or talent necessary to really replace Musharref effectively. This means further breakdown, further corruption, further actions by factions (such as the ISI or the Islamist militias and terrorists).

Mene, mene, tekel upharsin.
 
RadioactiveMan said:
For the US, this can be a double-edged sword. If the new head of state is hostile to us, then we lose what little of an "ally" we had in Pakistan. However, if we don't have to worry about losing the support of a nation that hates us anyway, we can roll some thunder and take the fight to bin Laden again.
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Wow, you're really looking to live up to your name.

Quick quiz, how many of our tanks and mechanized infantry are hardened to survive a nuclear blast?
 
Looks like their new found freedom is coming with more taliban bombings. I wonder if they will capitulate to the taliban.
 
GreyICE said:
Wow, you're really looking to live up to your name.

Quick quiz, how many of our tanks and mechanized infantry are hardened to survive a nuclear blast?
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Is there something about this forum that attracts people with a genetic predisposition to putting words into other people's mouths?

When did I ever say anything about nuclear weapons?
 
Travis said:
Do you think, overall, that this will be a good thing or a bad thing for the average person in Pakistan?
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Average? It strikes me that Pakistan is incredibly divided, almost to the brink of civil war. If this defuses the prospects of civil war, then it will be a good thing for the average Pakistani, even if the new power is less able to serve the needs of the people than the old power. Sometimes it is better to abandon "principle" in order to prevent war. This is such a case. I credit Musharraf for recognizing that.

And he will be back. When things go bad with the new boss, people look back fondly at the old boss. I present Russia as exhibit A.
 
RadioactiveMan said:
Is there something about this forum that attracts people with a genetic predisposition to putting words into other people's mouths?

When did I ever say anything about nuclear weapons?
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That would be right about the time you suggested conducting military actions on foreign soil without the approval of the government in question, when said government has nukes.

Invading Pakistan to tag Bin Laden (if he's actually there) is a horrible idea if they're not cooperating.
 
GreyICE said:
That would be right about the time you suggested conducting military actions on foreign soil without the approval of the government in question, when said government has nukes.

Invading Pakistan to tag Bin Laden (if he's actually there) is a horrible idea if they're not cooperating.
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If that happened, Osama would be offering prayers of thanks to allah.
 
mrbaracuda said:
Maybe Oliver or Cheney. :p
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BS. Pakistan still has a US-obeying Government with the PPP in power. In my wildest dreams I wouldn't suspect the US taking military steps against Pakistan. Not to mention that Pakistan would wipe Invaders "off the pages of time" using their Nukes... :p

Anyway: Musharraf is trying to get his head out of the noose, that's all. So I suspect that you won't hear his name anymore in the near future ...
 
Pashtuna Irridenta, phase two, will commence within the next six months.

Odds that Pakistan breaks up: I'll call it a long shot, one chance in fifteen.

But it is a probability greater than zero.

It's happened before.

DR
 
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