• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

I have a question about CO2

It sure is hard to keep up with you guys in the discussion. Its very complex for me as an amature in this subject. Though I hope I'm not gonna spoil the atmosphere :)

Not at all, your participation is most welcome. I'm sure you can understand why mhaze and David Rodale get on our tits something chronic; it's their behaviour that's the problem, their misrepresentations and adolescent sarcasm.

Something to bear in mind is that in the current, very short-term climate change most variables are fixed. Ice-ages are influenced by orbital cycles that operate over tens of thousands of years. Longer-term changes are caused by continental drift, which is exceedingly slow. Over the very long-term, solar ouput was about 30% less in the early days of the planet (which was significantly earlier in the life of the Sun). None of these influences are having an impact now.

Those are interesting in themselves, and do have a lot to tell us about how climate and the oceans behave in principle, of course. For instance, Panama only broke surface about four million years ago (IIRC), cutting off heat-flow between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and profoundly altering climate. Of course, nothing equivalent has occurred since the invention on the steam-engine. (The Panama Canal doesn't count :).)

When it comes to climate-change now we have to look for influences that are changing now. Of which CO2-load is the most obvious.
 
What mendacious drivel that is. Own up that you falsely accused CD of fictional claims.

Par for the course. David Rodale has no concept of "consistency", so he can't recognise it when he sees it - nor can he recognise the inconsistencies in the crank "theories" he parrots.

It bears repeating that those of us who understand and accept basic physics have not had to go through the gyrations that the cranks have had to go through over the last thirty years. Reality is panning-out pretty much as we expected. We haven't had to postulate new physics to explain it, nor will we have to postulate yet more to explain what's going to happen. Which is more of the same, of course.
 
The latest story to do the round of the blogs.

http://landshape.org/stats/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/article.pdf

Now, David Stockwell has an impeccable background in modeling.

http://landshape.org/enm/about/

So I was wondering, just what is this paper claiming? From what I can tell, he has no idea of what he is talking about, but his found his 15 minutes of fame with the climate audit crowd.

Well that's not difficult. What is difficult, I agree, is to work out just what he's claiming. It seems to be that that the drought projections aren't as sound as his financial market modelling has proved to be, but one's bound to wonder just how well that's been doing recently.

(It brings to mind a comment I came across "out there" that dismisses climate models because none of them predicted the twenty years of cooling that's coming right now. Yup, climate models didn't predict something that hasn't happened yet.)

This seems generic

"Initially concerned with the lack of statistical significance testing in the report, I requested the data to test the significance of their findings. When the data was not immediately forthcoming, a number of bloggers took up the story."

The data that isn't immediately forthcoming is, of course, what's going to actually happen over the next twenty to forty years. The implication is that this data is being concealed. Which I suppose it is, to those who believe in a god. No wonder bloggers took it up.

The bloggers include Steve McIntyre, of course.
 
The latest story to do the round of the blogs.

http://landshape.org/stats/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/article.pdf

Now, David Stockwell has an impeccable background in modeling.

http://landshape.org/enm/about/

So I was wondering, just what is this paper claiming? From what I can tell, he has no idea of what he is talking about, but his found his 15 minutes of fame with the climate audit crowd.

What is hard to understand?

His summary:
In a statistical re-analysis of the data from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, all climate models failed standard internal validation tests for regional droughted area in Australia over the last century. The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report. Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report. These results are consistent with other studies finding lack of adequate validation in global warming effects modeling, and lack of skill of climate models at the regional scale.
 
What is hard to understand?

His summary:
In a statistical re-analysis of the data from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, all climate models failed standard internal validation tests for regional droughted area in Australia over the last century. The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report. Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report. These results are consistent with other studies finding lack of adequate validation in global warming effects modeling, and lack of skill of climate models at the regional scale.

I know what he is claiming, he does not seem to do anything to demonstrate that.
 
.......you never explicitly and unambiguously stated that ONLY the far extreme argues that all recent warming is due to CO2 Unfortunately it is typical of denialist tactics to avoid explicitly saying anything so it simply looked to me like you were trying to engineer a conclusion in the readers mind without having pin down what it was that you were saying......now that I've explained the vital relevance of the word perhaps you can explain why you omitted the word even though you thought it was redundant....

Sorry, I don't play silly absurd games with grammer, and I do not respond to or get ticked off by insults, having a rather strong belief that those who use them have by doing so lost the argument.

Has your attempt at creating a little flame war squabble now failed?

.....More data means more certainty. The same is true of the IPCC's increasing certainty in subsequent iterations of their reports.......
May be of interest-
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/04/08/why-multiple-climate-model-agreement-is-not-that-exciting/


Last, I should note you chose to ignore in #42 among other items, this:
net radiative imbalance (1.60) = (almost exactly equals) = CO2 forcing (1.66).
To carry this further, calculate the warming that would occur from such and such a radiative imbalance and compare it with the actual warming of the planet over your choice of timeframe. Interesting results.
 
Last edited:
I know what he is claiming, he does not seem to do anything to demonstrate that.

I'm sure his results are repeatable by others, and he certainly does respond to email. The results are in the tables.

Perhaps Ocelot would care to take a look at this simple evaluation, he seems to want strongly to defend these sorts of modeling.

Looks like good news for Australia to me.
 
Well. been reading above posts and smart people told us to buy those quality blue chip shares? All the maths are pointless if based on incorrect data in the first place. The Vikings farmed Greenland then it got too cold, what warmed it up? Big business has smelt money in global warming and carbon credits and gov. see it as a way to control the dills that believe in this rubbish. Trees don't get rid of co2 they give and take like all living things, the oceans suck it up. I for one would be happy to see a clean up,but it may just save us from going into a little ice age. 23 000 scientists have stated warming is a crock.
 
Thanks alot for the information. I never knew that about the Devonian time frame.



Well I'm certainly is very interested in the subject. But only on a layman level.

First I was very negative on the whole GW thing. I accepted that there is a GW but I'm very unsure about how mankind is affecting it.

I'm trying to understand the concept and the question around this problem, by asking questions :rolleyes:

It sure is hard to keep up with you guys in the discussion. Its very complex for me as an amature in this subject. Though I hope I'm not gonna spoil the atmosphere :)

http://www.lulu.com/content/971066

free download of a decent skeptic book
 
Sorry, I don't play silly absurd games with grammer, and I do not respond to or get ticked off by insults, having a rather strong belief that those who use them have by doing so lost the argument.
Which is why you have lost every argument here the instant you opened your insulting, lying yap.

Funny guy.
 
Just as an exercise (and an amusement) consider these two hypotheses :

A. mhaze is a real human being.

B. mhaze is a sophisticated Turing Test Candidate.

Given the evidence (and there's no shortage of it), which seems to you more likely to be correct?

Myself, I'd go for Hypothesis B.

C. Mhaze is a troll, who contradicts themselves and uses cherry picked data.

D. Mhaze is paid to misrepresent things.

We will know in about twenty years.

Please remember Rule 11: Posts must be on topic to the thread subject. And Rule 12: “Attack the argument, not the arguer." Please cease and desist this behavior.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: LibraryLady
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The oceans look green at night and on over cast days because the algae plankton what ever raises, up in the water to take in CO2, more carbon more creatures eating it so it balances out. Carbon is food, be happy. The sun is in a quiet time now, no sun spots and we are cooling. This is a great big con the reason that arctic ice is melting is volcanic, a huge chain of volcano's are and have been erupting under the ice for years now, might be haarp. Chicken little syndrome, and if you can't see this huge con you are gullibull.

Bam bam bam, another driveby posting.
 
Sorry, I don't play silly absurd games with grammer, and I do not respond to or get ticked off by insults, having a rather strong belief that those who use them have by doing so lost the argument.

My goodness. Insults? I did express frustration with people who make straw man arguments, who evade pertinant questions with red herrings, rhetoric and sophistry but I bent over backwards to allow for the possibility that you weren't one of those people.

From the tone of your response affecting insult on behalf of those who lie, evade and distort the truth it seems that you even know that you're one of those people.

I mentioned my frustrations with such behaviours simply to make it clear how your actions could be construed as evidence of deliberate deceit. This was in order to motivate you towards offering an alternative explanation which I was eager to accept. I now understand that you identify yourself as one of these people I described as "mendacious onanists." Had I known you would so publicly identify yourself with that group obviously the membership agreement would have forbidden me from saying that about you. It's too late for me to go back and edit that but I now retract it. People who deliberately tell lies are simply that. If you're admitting to being one of them then it's enough for me to know that everybody witnessed that you're a self confessed liar. They can add their own private lewd epithets if they feel the same way about liars as I do.

From yet another missed opportunity for you to respond to repeated requests that you substantiate where you apparently read the argument that all warming is caused by CO2 it seems like you're tacitly admitting that this was a straw man argument that you made up rather than encountered anywhere.

It appears to me now that you know that what you did was dishonest, which is why you took offense when I berated dishonest people who make up arguments exagerating the claims of their opposition. If you were honest you could have simply demonstrated that such arguments are being made, that you didn't make them up. However if you were one of the dishonest people who make up arguments exagerating the claims of their opposition, that would not be an option for you. That makes you a liar. I mean no insult by that just a statement of fact relavent to the discussion at hand. We must take special care to be skeptical about statements made by a self confessed liar.

From this missed opportunity to explain why you mangled the IPCC's statement to missrepresent it's meaning along with subsequent further misrepresentations of the statement's meaning, it appears that you're tacitly admitting that this was a deliberate quote mine. If you were honest you could have simply explained what your motivation was in taking the extra effort to rearrange that quote. I might accept your interim excuse that you were ignorant of the word's meaning and unaware of the effect of removing it if you offered a reason motivating the extra effort required to re-edit what should have been a simple cut and paste job. If your motivation however was deceit then that would not be an option for you. That makes you a liar. I mean no insult by that just a statement of fact relavent to the discussion at hand. We must take special care to be skeptical about staements made by a self confessed liar.

As such I can't even take seriously your claim that you didn't understand the relavence of the word. Ignorance I can accpet and with your cooperation my efforts at education might have been of some benefit. Who knows with further discussion you might have opened my eyes to convincing evidence that migth have changed my mind. However there's no hope of constructive debate with a liar.

Has your attempt at creating a little flame war squabble now failed?

Not at all. I have no intention of creating a flame war and even if I did your admission that your initial agument was a straw man is marks an end to it.

That admission could have been as simple as "yes I did exagerate for rhetorical effect but..." and then we could have continued the discussion in a fair and civil manner.

I wanted honest debate if you persist in taking offense at barbs directed at liars then I must lose any hope that you'll engage is such debate with any degree of honesty.


Again why should it be of interest whislt you're identifying with the sort of liars who evade criticism when they're caught in a lie by throwing in Red Herrings? Is it even relavent to the conversation we're having?

Last, I should note you chose to ignore in #42 among other items, this:
net radiative imbalance (1.60) = (almost exactly equals) = CO2 forcing (1.66).
To carry this further, calculate the warming that would occur from such and such a radiative imbalance and compare it with the actual warming of the planet over your choice of timeframe. Interesting results.

Indeed I did, I wondered at the time if this might be a red herring. If you perhaps already knew that the following two statements are in no way incompatible with one another.

Modelling suggests that the overwhelming proportion of warming could come from the greenhouse effect.
Direct observation evidence leads us to a greater than 90% confidence level that >50% of today's warming comes from the greenhouse effect.

Neither however imply that all warming comes from CO2

Now that you've tacitly confessed to being a deceitful denialist obviously I was right not to bother with a detailled exposition on this. It seems you've no desire to learn this and every desire to deny it in the face of all logic and evidence.

Maybe if you turn over a new leaf and commit to honest pursual of truth forsaking the deliberate propagation of misrepresentations, evasiosn and lies then it might be worth further discussion but I can see that to do so now would be a waste of my time.
 
As such I can't even take seriously your claim that you didn't understand the relavence of the word. Ignorance I can accpet and with your cooperation my efforts at education might have been of some benefit. Who knows with further discussion you might have opened my eyes to convincing evidence that migth have changed....

Yada Yada Yada. You can babble all the drivel you like on the fine points of your understanding of grammer, but it will go unheard. But I got a laugh out of "my efforts at education", thanks. Nothing new in derails through minutae of grammer.

Capeldodger is way better at that ruse than you, by the way.

Here's what's good enough for me.

> 90% = mostly

Got it?
 
Perhaps Ocelot would care to take a look at this simple evaluation, he seems to want strongly to defend these sorts of modeling.

Do I? I thought I was simply explaining to you what the IPCC were saying since your description didn't tally with reality. I don't remember making any comments with regard to its validity. I'm not qualified to assess the validity of climate models, merely to try to understand them. Underatnding made more difficult by the prevalence of misrepresentations, evasions, sophistry, rhetoric and lies. Thankfully detecting such dishonesty is something I do have experience with. I'm sorry if you're upset at being found out as so decietful but I did try to offer you the benefit of the doubt.

The caught often do blame the catchers but nobday pays them much heed. The blame for them being caught clearly lies with their wrongdoing in the first place.

It's not a serious crime, making up straw men or quotemining poeple to distort the meaning of their statements. I don't need to make a big deal about it, just ensure that everyone knows which statements of yours are misrepresentations, evasions and lies.
 
Does any one have a link to the warming contribution % of non CO2 greenhouse gasses? Significant quantities of CH4, for instance, are being released from thawing tundra.
 
Yada Yada Yada. You can babble all the drivel you like on the fine points of your understanding of grammer, but it will go unheard.
No, it won't, and it hasn't been. Are you that deluded that you imagine that your lies and evasion aren't obvious to all?

But I got a laugh out of "my efforts at education", thanks. Nothing new in derails through minutae of grammer.
You attempt another derail via false claims about grammer (sic).

You might learn the difference between grammar and semantics.

Capeldodger is way better at that ruse than you, by the way.
You're the one who never ceases to use ruses.

Here's what's good enough for me.

> 90% = mostly

Got it?
Wrong in general and dishonest in context.

Truly shameless, aren't you?
 
Last edited:
Yada Yada Yada. You can babble all the drivel you like on the fine points of your understanding of grammer, but it will go unheard. But I got a laugh out of "my efforts at education", thanks. Nothing new in derails through minutae of grammer.

Capeldodger is way better at that ruse than you, by the way.

Yes I'm sure it amused you greatly to see someone take your lies seriously and make an effort to clarify the truth that you knew all along.

Though I don't see where grammar comes into it. Your errors were not ones of grammar but of fact.

You claimed that the far extreme argues that all warming is caused by CO2 this was not a grammatical error. It was just untrue. It now seems that this was deliberate on your part.

You implied that the IPCC said that all warming is caused by CO2 and you misquoted them in order to support your claim. This was not a gramatical error. It was just untrue. It now seems that this was deliberate on your part.

Finally your claim that I'm merely picking you up on trivial inconsequntial grammatical errors is yet another lie. I'm picking you up on serious distortions of the true cynically crafted to impede understanding.

Here's what's good enough for me.
> 90% = mostly

Got it?

I get that you're now not only deliberate misrepresting what the IPCC says but deliberately misrepresenting what I say.

I will clarify, though not in any hope that you'll understand. I know that you allready understand and are deliberately confusing the issue. My intent is to stifle you capacity for disguising the facts.

See the graph below, it represents the uncertainty about what percentage of contemporary warming is attributable to AGW.

The horizontal axis represents the possible percentage of warming that might be attributed to AGW

The area under the graph bounded by any two vertical lines, represents the probability that the true percentage of warming caused by AGW lies within the range defined by those vertical lines

The word "Most" in the IPCC statement refers to which segement of the graph we're considering. It means more than 50%. It defines the range as more than 50% (and less than 100%)

The 90% in the IPCC statement refers to the probability that the true percentage of warming attributable to AGW. It refers to the shaded area being 90% of the area under the whole graph.
 

Attachments

  • AGW Graph.jpg
    AGW Graph.jpg
    10.5 KB · Views: 1
Last edited:
C. Mhaze is a troll, who contradicts themselves and uses cherry picked data.

D. Mhaze is paid to misrepresent things.

E. Mhaze has a personality disorder.

I reckon B (Sophisticated Turing Test Candidate) is off the table. His deliberate misrepresentation of the IPCC by editing a quote would require a very sophisticated TTC, but is well within the bounds of an unsophisticated liar (with or without a personality disorder).

If D, well, he's not worth the money, however little it might be. He's just not up to the job.
 

Back
Top Bottom