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Possible June Shocker--Did McCain Outraise Obama?

Brainster

Penultimate Amazing
Brainster
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May 26, 2006
Messages
22,342
Yellow light on this story, but it will certainly come as a surprise if true. Remember when the media were reporting that Democratic fundraisers were projecting that Barack Obama might raise as much as $100 million in the month of June?

Well, a couple of conservative bloggers are revising that projection down.

There is a good chance Barack Obama’s fundraising total from June will be less than the $22 million he raised in May. No word on whether McCain’s fundraising total was up from then, but if you recall, Sen. McCain only came in $1 million behind Obama for the month.

Nothing is certain, but there is at least the possibility (remember-I said possibility) that John McCain outraised Barack Obama in June.
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And here:

I'd been saying for a while that we could expect a major drop-off in [Obama's] fundraising. People have been crowing about his small donor base, and how he could keep tapping that.

But it isn't necessarily true. When I was in law school, I gave GWB $300 online after he was the presumptive nominee but before he was the actual nominee. But it would be foolish to assume that you could keep coming back to me again and again up to $4600. Or even up to $400. On my law student budget, that was it. Add in the "shiny new toy" aspect to Obamania back in February, and I think you can see why his fundraising has dropped off.
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There is no hard explanation or sourcing given for why they speculate that fundraising did not significantly increase during June, which is one of the reasons I mentioned that the story deserves a yellow light for now. It is logical that the money tree might need extra shaking at this point in the campaign, now that the presumptive nominees have been identified and there are no more primaries to attract public interest. In addition, Barack has been raising money to help pay off Hillary's campaign debt (although there are complaints that perhaps he's being a little half-hearted in that endeavor).
 
Obama's small donor base is in summer mode. There's no reason to believe that the fundraising won't ramp back up dramatically when the GE season officially starts.
 
I've always been skeptical of the Obama fundraising estimates.

While theoretically small donors would be able to give a bunch of times, I don't think most will. Especially this early.
 
With the PACs collecting millions on their behalves, how can we tell who really raised more more money since so much is indirect?
 
Donors Asked To Give for Two
Clinton Debt Adds to Obama Burden
By Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, July 11, 2008; Page A04

The fundraising machine Sen. Barack Obama is relying on to overwhelm Sen. John McCain this fall has shown signs of wear in recent weeks, as Internet contributions have slowed and efforts to recruit top donors to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign have been beset by lingering tensions.

In a conference call Wednesday night, a top Obama adviser told members of the senator's national finance committee that "there's a huge amount of money we need to raise, and we have to be aware of that," according to one person on the call, who said the campaign, combined with the Democratic National Committee, hopes to have raised $450 million by Election Day.

Several of Obama's top fundraisers said yesterday that they don't think trend lines showing three straight months of declining donations to the candidate are cause for concern. But they said the campaign has recognized it will need to expand efforts to raise money from high-dollar donors in order to meet budget projections.

"It's one of the reasons why the Clinton people are so important," said Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida finance chairman. "Most of us have beaten our Rolodexes pretty badly."

To that end, Obama maintained a frenetic schedule of fundraising events this week, courting top Clinton bundlers and soaking up millions of dollars for the DNC.
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The fact that they are keeping quiet about their June numbers suggests that it's not a very impressive number (compared to his past performance).
 
McCain's number is on the board:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain raised more than $22 million in June, his best fundraising performance of the year, and ended the month with nearly $27 million cash on hand.
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I certainly hope Obama doesn't change his numbers just enough to beat McCain.

:D
 
Darth Rotor said:
What, they had a poker game instead of a town hall debate? :)
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That would definitely go in Obama's favor. If it were craps, on the other hand...
Candidates' Vices: Craps and Poker

wgamblers_0714.jpg
 
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Matt Yglesias ties the fundraising drop to Obama's mad dash to the center:

The combination of Obama mostly focusing on showing his more centrist side while also maintaining a stable lead in the polls seems to me to discourage activists from giving to the campaign. People are thinking to themselves, why not save that money and by a G3 iPhone or give it to progressive Senate candidate?
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Possible, I suppose. I like the clever take from one of the commenters:

indeed. taking money out of your wallet is a difficult task when you're using one hand to hold your nose.
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the hell kind of poker game is Obama playing? Looks like some kind of warped Omaha.
 
Today the WSJ reported that Obama raised $30 million in June. Obama campaign said "way off the mark," but didn't say how much they took in.

I'm intrigued. Way off by how much? On the high side or low side?
 
McCain's June shocker?
I think it's extremely inappropriate to report upon his sex life.
 
I have read it on a few more sites, but it may all be coming from the same source. Likely he will release the numbers late this week coming.

They are considering the $30 Million a disappointment. Compared to his past fund raising efforts, I guess it is.

TAM:)
 
They're not required to release the numbers until the 20th, I don't know why Friday became the unofficial deadline, maybe the campaign hinted that would be the day and didn't come through?

Either way, the motive doesn't appear to be to release it on a weekend and bury it in the news cycle, because obviously we still haven't seen it. I'm guessing they just didn't have their numbers together.
 
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