2. The issue of the probability of collapse
Again I will quote your bullet point here for completeness
Originally Posted by thewholesoul
•the probabilty of three skyscrapers designed to withstand the damage they recieved all failing on same day is very low
A minor misunderstanding also needs to be corrected here, you say
quote]Originally Posted by thewholesoul
(i)How can you possibly be unconvinced that the towers were unable to handle the speeds of the jet impact when in fact they did handle the speeds of impact as seen by everyone on television?
Capable is not the same as designed. There is only one piece of evidence to suggest that the towers were designed with impacts of 600mph in mind, and this analysis has never been recovered. It's very hard to know for sure whether the building was designed for this impact, if it was it was done badly. It is obvious though that the building was capable of surviving the initial impact.[/quote]
So you concede that it was capable of surviving the impact but argue that it was not designed for the impact eventhough we have public comments from the people who actually designed the buildings stating that the buildings were designed for the impact of a jetliner?
http://911research.wtc7.net/wtc/analysis/design.html
The rest of this section is just completely pointless,
Not when my point is to establish the official hypothesis has a low probability of occurance.
you go on about all these features you feel are relevant, but never show how probability should play any part in this.
The role probabiltiy plays is nothing more than the estimated liklihood of something or event occuring. And you have not explained why probabiltiy does not play any part?
In actuality a simplistic attempt at probability analysis yields no useful information.
Really? What aspects are subject to analysis?
Scientific investigation is the correct method to determine what is likely and not.
When i place a bet on a horse i do not need scienific analysis to determine the probability of my horse winning? We use scientific analysis to prove whether something is possible or not. Probability analysis is used to determine or rather estimate whether the liklihood, for the occurance of a given possibility, is high or low.
So no, scientific analysis is not the correct method to estimate probability – it is however the correct method to determine the possibility of something being true or not.
Even the paper you linked just lists the author's speculations. Nothing else.
It is a fact, not speculation, that the official explanation requires that a sequence of events and suppositions to occur in order for their explanation to be true. This sequence of events can be read in their Final report. It is a fact, not speculation, that the CD explanation is a parallel explanation. The following is the reason why the author claims the official explanation has a lower probability than the CD explanation:
“If the explanation is in the form of a chain it is only necessary to prove one link wrong to destroy the case. In contrast, with a parallel set of explanations it is only necessary to prove one explanation correct to establish the case”
http://www.journalof911studies.com/volume/2008/911andProbabilityTheory17Legge.pdf
If you have any objections to this reason then let it be known because merely stating that his paper is just speculation is hardly a rebuttal.
Returning to my claim:
•the probabilty of three skyscrapers designed to withstand the damage they recieved all failing on same day is very low
The most logical counter argument to this claim would say that - the skyscrapers
were not designed to withstand the damage of a plane impact with a combustible fuel load. Given that people who designed the buildings did in fact design the buildings for such an event I cant see how you can establish this approach.
Perhaps you may argue that the probability of three skyscrapers all failing on the same day for reasons they were designed to withstand has a
high probabilty of occuring. If so, then you should make that case.
But what most debunkers tend to opt for is that
probability is irrelevant because regardless of how low the probability of 911 happening is, it happened nonetheless. This line of argument simply dismisses or ignores the fact that the official hypothesis has a low probability. This is the reason why you cannot provide a straightforward answer to a straightforward question, so lets try it again:
911 aside, would you agree that it is far more probable to totally destroy a steel framed skyscraper suddenly symetrically and in essentially freefall speed with explosives rather than an office fire and aysmetrical structural damage?
conclusion, the second claim you addressed remains.
peace