Rasmus
Philosopher
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2005
- Messages
- 6,372
Where am I losing you? Seriously.
If you, again and again, categorically state that X is so and so, without expressing any doubts at the time you are stating it, then you are sure that X is so and so. At that time. That means that you think you can tell the difference. At that time.
It might as well mean that I can't tell the difference (or, simply, that there isn't a difference!) and am unable to adjust my confidence to my history of hits and misses.
It is only when you learn the truth later that you admit to not being precise. And therein lies the rub: By admitting later that she cannot in reality distinguish, she also admits that she isn't psychic.
No. She admits that she is not a fully reliable psychic but rather one who should only be relied on 80% of the time. She certainly acts contrary to that!
Because, how can you be a psychic, if you cannot distinguish at the time you get the messages?
I don't know. But neither do you.
I don't know how the communication feels like or where the errors creep in. So I cannot claim that she ought to know the difference between a right and wrong prediction.
Yes, she should know the difference between a psychic prediction and making stuff up or guessing. But she doesn't claim that she guesses 20% of the time. She says that the psychic predictions are wrong 20% of the time.
How is that different from cold reading (in the case where you are aware of what you are doing) or insanity (in the case where you aren't aware, but merely listens to/imagines voices in your head)?
Maybe she does hear voices in her head, and those are right only 80% of the time?
If I was playing poker, and the voices in my head would tell me the cards of my opponents and get them right 80% of the time, how should I know when the voices have got it right?
Hell, I don't even need voices. I could play poker and cheat. I wear a little receiver in my ear and have a hidden camera behind my opponents. A computer evaluates the images and tells me what cards my opponents are most likely playing. The computer gets it right 80% of the time.
So, I will probably win a lot of money playing that way. But I can never tell you if my idea of what cards my opponent holds is right or wrong during any given game. I just know - from experience- that its right 80% of the time.
The moment Sylvia acknowledges that she is wrong some of the time but doesn't know it at the time, she also acknowledges that she is not psychic.
No. That simply doesn't follow.
In my example above, I am cheating. I am still cheating even if it only works in 80% of all games and even if i never know what type of game I play at any given time.