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Randomness in Evolution: Valid and Invalid Usage

See, I understand that distinction you are trying to make here, but I don't find it of very much utility, to people who understand probability theory. Processes that contain random elements are by definition random. Where the idea of something being "entirely" random comes from seems to be the conflation of randomness with fairness (i.e., equiprobability).

#1 You still don't give any example of how the definition is any more useful. You just make some vague inference that people who disagree with you don't understand probability. Which incidentally, flies in the face of just about every mathematical example to try to bring into the discussion.

#2 Again the characterization of the definition of random as only equiprobable is missing the point. It is both uniformly distributed and uncorrelated.

#3 Imagining that this has anything to do with fairness demonstrates just how poorly you really do understand the subject matter at hand. This has nothing to do with fairness. It has to do with predictability. That is why the correlation constraint is just as important as uniformity. Several posts back I went through how with these two constraints you can guarantee a variable is unpredictable.

#4 An equivalent mis-characterization of your point would be something like "your confusion seems to come from conflation of randomness and politeness". Ie it is a complete non sequitur
 
Bingo!

His arguments are coming from his a**posterior.

He is a Brazil not conspiracist trying to say that scientists think the nuts just got there randomly... he knows that this makes the plot about" people purposefully putting the big nuts on top to make people believe there are more" is more believable if they think that scientists think... that the nuts just "randomly" end up on top and/or people just happen to "randomly" open nut cans where the Brazil nut happened to have "randomly" risen.

The point is to keep people from understanding why time and gravity are selection forces (NATURAL SELECTION) that will ensure that the little nuts fall through the holes while the big nuts stay afloat... thus making it extremely unlikely that you will ever have a canister of mixed nuts where the nuts look evenly mixed. The more "natural selection"--the more the uneven the distribution. Natural selection is a nonrandom filter that gives a weird impression of purposeful design or intent at times in the brains of those who evolved to notice design, meaning, patterns, and intent-- even when they aren't there.
 
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Bingo!

His arguments are coming from his a**posterior.

He is a Brazil not conspiracist trying to say that scientists think the nuts just got there randomly... he knows that this make the plot about people purposefully putting the big nuts on top to make people believe there are more is more believable if they think that scientists think... that the nuts just "randomly" end up on top and/or people just happen to randomly open nut cans where the Brazil nut happened to have randomly risen.

The point is to keep people from understanding why time and gravity are selection forces (NATURAL SELECTION) that will ensure that the little nuts fall through the holes while the big nuts stay afloat... thus making it extremely unlikely that you will ever have a canister of mixed nuts where the nuts look evenly mixed. The more "natural selection"--the more the uneven the distribution. Natural selection is a nonrandom filter that gives a weird impression of purposeful design or intent at times in the brains of those who evolved to notice design, meaning, patterns, and intent-- even when they aren't there.

You are ignoring the fact that the assuming that the nuts move about randomly does not preclude the infilling and close packing of the smaller nuts below the bigger ones biasing the movement of the bigger nuts to the top of the can. Simply saying that the process has orderly long-term result doesn't mean that any of the component processes are non-random.
 
I think all the smart folks know that understanding of natural selection is inversely related to belief in god. I am quite certain all the focus on randomness is to make sure that people do not understand natural selection. Whether it's why Brazil Nuts are on top or the way life seems to look amazingly well designed-- Natural Selection is by far the best, most satisfying, and most useful explanation... and it puts all woo to shame. Understanding it, helps us understand how our mind tricks itself... and it puts us on the look out for other naturalistic explanations we had become unaware of.
 
The only problem with articutett's attempt at a summary of our views* is that it doesn't even begin to come close to an accurate portrayal of out views. Our views are that even if the movements of the nuts are completely random, processes such as the infill and close packing of smaller particles behind the bigger particles would force them to the top. There is no room, even implicitly, for a guiding intelligence (supernatural or otherwise) to conspire to put the Brazil nuts at the top.

I would really like to know why articulett insists on misrepresent people's positions if her position is as strong as she says it is.

*jimbob and Walter Wayne, let me know if you don't agree with anything I said.


Actually the brazil nut fairys could do this, but the outcome wouldn't be random because a probabilistic tresatment shows a drift in one direction. This differes to evolution, where the direction of drift alters.

Articulett, do you accept that when evolutionary biologists describe "a selective pressure of as little as 0.1%" they are using a probabilistic treatment to describe natural selection?
 
I know... you got to love the irony in that one. The ones who imagine themselves experts at logical fallacies seem to be utterly blind to how much they rely on them (logical fallacies) --and really not much else -to support whatever points they imagine themselves to be making.

For fun, check out some of the Dover transcript...
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/dover/day12pm.html for example...

note Behe's usage and obfuscation of the word random...
Zosima, I suspect you will experience deja vu.
 
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See, I understand that distinction you are trying to make here, but I don't find it of very much utility, to people who understand probability theory.
Uh, wait a minute... weren't you the one trying to push the distinction?


Processes that contain random elements are by definition random.
And, I asked you how does that statement help us make more new discoveries about life, vs. accepting the process as "not entirely random"?

But, forget the word "entirely" since it seems to confuse us a bit. Evolutionary biologists more often refer to the process of Evolution as "non-random". Why do you think that is?

If we were to call the process random, in the way you describe, you have to describe how that would help us make more powerful discoveries about life, than the descriptions evolutionary biologists are currently using.

And, please, keep your description as clear-cut as possible.


Where the idea of something being "entirely" random comes from seems to be the conflation of randomness with fairness (i.e., equiprobability).
I did not mean to imply equiprobability in my use of the word "entirely". I meant it in the context you described: Calling a process with only some random elements as [entirely] random. Instead of non-random or partly-random or "not entirely random", etc.
 
Would chaotic be better than random in this sense?

Chaotic would be better, if evolution were chaotic. But whether or not chaos is important or necessary to evolution is certainly not to be taken for granted, and is an issue of much debate in this thread, as well as others.

So if you have evidence that evolution is chaotic please do present it. But just so we don't reiterate a lot of ground that has already been covered, you might want to reread the discussion that jimbob and I have had in this thread and the 'chaotic systems & repeatability' thread. 'Cause if you start talking about quantum mechanics and butterflies flapping their wings during hurricanes I'm going to facepalm so hard its not even funny.
http://kevinchiu.org/emote/facepalm.jpg
http://www.forumammo.com/cpg/albums/userpics/10071/picard-no-facepalm.jpg
 
Okay, so the motion of molecules are chaotic. But one can reasonably determine the motion the overall object.

Organisms are molecules, species are the fluids composed of them. But the Brownian motion overtime changes how these different 'fluids' interact, even though the individual motions are by themselves somewhat chaotic (indifferent). Over time, the individual nuances have form, though any particular...um...thingamajig and any point in time is seemingly, well, the R word.

Or something like that. Go with Psychohistory if you will. And don't step on butterflies, so philosophers and mathematicians won't be nondeterministically nudged to bother us about them.
 
Okay, so the motion of molecules are chaotic. But one can reasonably determine the motion the overall object.

Organisms are molecules, species are the fluids composed of them. But the Brownian motion overtime changes how these different 'fluids' interact, even though the individual motions are by themselves somewhat chaotic (indifferent). Over time, the individual nuances have form, though any particular...um...thingamajig and any point in time is seemingly, well, the R word.

Or something like that. Go with Psychohistory if you will. And don't step on butterflies, so philosophers and mathematicians won't be nondeterministically nudged to bother us about them.

We've talked about this pretty thoroughly already. So just scan through the tons of other posts, and you can role play that you were actually writing for whichever side you agree with.
 
Actually, that highlights one of the problems with this thread: There are tons of other posts on here, and no one, not even I who started this, is probably going to read and sort through every single one of them.

It might be best just to summarize the discussion, to answer new questions. And, perhaps provide links to more info: Either other posts or other web sites. Whatever.
 
Actually, that highlights one of the problems with this thread: There are tons of other posts on here, and no one, not even I who started this, is probably going to read and sort through every single one of them.

It might be best just to summarize the discussion, to answer new questions. And, perhaps provide links to more info: Either other posts or other web sites. Whatever.

Ya, It would be hard for me to fairly summarize the position, seeing as how I tend towards the deterministic extreme.

I think the issue of chaos was covered pretty well in the other thread that I referenced though. I think it got resolved in a somewhat more technical fashion.

With respect to both randomness & chaos no one is arguing that they don't exist and that they aren't important parts of all sorts of natural processes.

But any sort of the claim that evolution is uniquely random(or chaotic) needs to show either (1) that there is some macroscopic characteristic of evolutionary processes that makes it random or chaotic. or (2) that we have strong reason to believe that microscopic random or chaotic processes will actually have macroscopic random effects.

So the claim that living things are made up of fluids which are governed by Brownian motion is, at this point, both unoriginal and insufficient.

I personally think, that people automatically assuming that these microscopic characteristics scale up to the macroscopic level, missed a fundamental point in their scientific education. If anything,study of Brownian motion in physics or chemistry, demonstrates exactly the opposite, that random microscopic behavior cancels and that the macroscopic behavior of these systems is incredibly regular.

Moreover, to characterize the cellular machinery of a cell as some sort of crapshoot is missing a fundamental point of biology. Cells perform specialized tasks for sometimes as long as hundred years without failure. During replication unwinding the DNA causes the molecules to experience significant torques as it occurs incredibly quickly, and yet these systems are still reliable for many generations within an organism and across generations.

So I guess I see waving ones hands and looking at it as all random as intellectually lazy, basically assuming we know as much as we can know, when the fact of the matter is that the longer we look the more we find rules and laws and regularities that govern living systems.
 
Metaphors are wonderful things only if everybody knows what they are.

And I was talking about the Brownian motion as an analogy. Why pick at an analogy at the wrong end?
 
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Actually, that highlights one of the problems with this thread: There are tons of other posts on here, and no one, not even I who started this, is probably going to read and sort through every single one of them.

A random sample would probably do.

:duck:
 
Ya, It would be hard for me to fairly summarize the position, seeing as how I tend towards the deterministic extreme.

I think the issue of chaos was covered pretty well in the other thread that I referenced though. I think it got resolved in a somewhat more technical fashion.

With respect to both randomness & chaos no one is arguing that they don't exist and that they aren't important parts of all sorts of natural processes.

But any sort of the claim that evolution is uniquely random(or chaotic) needs to show either (1) that there is some macroscopic characteristic of evolutionary processes that makes it random or chaotic. or (2) that we have strong reason to believe that microscopic random or chaotic processes will actually have macroscopic random effects.


Many (most) phsicists would argue that chaotic systems are influenced on the macrosocpic level by quantum effects:



It's OK to disagree with me! :) Sometimes I'm even wrong :jaw-dropp.

I think QM events can strongly affect chaotic systems after relatively short amounts of time. I'm pretty sure 99% of physicists would agree with me.

I don't think it's useful to distinguish between "random" and "unpredictable" when we're discussing physical processes. I'm not sure how many physicists would agree with me on that (although I think I could convince them).

But none of that prevents us from predicting with extremely high confidence that July in Saskatoon will be warmer than January in Saskatoon. As they say - "weather is chaotic, but climate is predictable" (or something along those lines). As for evolution, it has both weather-like and climate-like aspects.

And the important feature is that over long timescale the random factors become more not less important.

The most extreme example I can think of is that many Near Earth Objects have chaotic orbits. These are unpredictible over the long term, partly because far enough in the future the orbital path hasn't been determined.

An example that isn't a NEO is Pluto, where the orbit is unpredictible beyond 2-million years. Now if we increased our measurement resolution, this could be increased; but far enough in the future this is influenced by random factors.

The course of evolution, and the shape of ecosystems is heavily influenced by the history, and an asteroid impact tends to have a severe effect.

This is an extreme example, but still valid.

Over longer timescales, rare events are more likely.

At the other end of the scale, a slinght mutation in the influenza virus killed millions of people. The random mutation in the flu virus suddenly created a new selective pressure on humans for a short while.

Black squirrels seem to be the result of a mutation of grey squirrels, and semed to have been first reported in England in 1912.

This variant tends to be more successful than a grey squirrel, and so they have been spreading at the expense of grey squirrels. Now the numbers of black squirrels are sufficient that you could talk about a slective advantage, and ignore random factors. In 1912 this would not be the case, as the small popuolation (initially one individual) would have been vulnerable to chance* events. As the grey squirrel population is not increasing fourfold every year, we can be confident that most squirrels fail to reproduce. Even though the black squirrel had a higher chance of reproducing, the odds were still agianst that particular mutation spreading.


*I would argue that these truly are "chance" events, others might argue that they were actually somehow predetermined, however they are in principle unpredictible.
 
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Many (most) phsicists would argue that chaotic systems are influenced on the macrosocpic level by quantum effects:
1. Again, appeal to authority is not persuasive when the quotes you use do not include either the persons reasoning, and you cannot defend any reasoning the sensibly supports your claims.

2. This is not particularly persuasive at the point which you can't articulate why in the "chaos & repeatability" thread. In fact, you ran away when I demonstrated the huge contradiction that your claims entail. You are losing every battle, but somehow trying to claim you are winning the war.

3. Also note, that you are making inferences, that Sol does not claim. He does not say that every chaotic system is affected by QM. Nor does he claim that any system always will be. All he claims is that it is possible. Jumping from the possibility existing to the claim that all chaotic systems are influenced by QM all the time his a monumental stretch.

4. You've never shown that evolution is chaotic. In fact, I believe in my last post in the chaotic thread I showed that by your definition of chaotic ecology is definitely not chaotic. You never responded, so I have to assume you agree. At any rate, you are grasping at straws here.

And the important feature is that over long timescale the random factors become more not less important.

The most extreme example I can think of is that many Near Earth Objects have chaotic orbits. These are unpredictible over the long term, partly because far enough in the future the orbital path hasn't been determined.

An example that isn't a NEO is Pluto, where the orbit is unpredictible beyond 2-million years. Now if we increased our measurement resolution, this could be increased; but far enough in the future this is influenced by random factors.

1. Being specificity of the positioning of the planet and other large gravitational bodies, is not the same as being influenced by quarks. As far as I know, there is going to be just as much vacuum fluctuation on one side of Pluto as the other. Again. It is a huge stretch to go from solar sized bodies to the influence of single quarks and leptons.

2. If the effects were to be significant it would take longer than the life of the universe for them to be significant. We get 2 million years of accuracy with the predictions we can make now. Lets assume we get 1 meter of accuracy today(which is generous, it is probably much worse than that). Planc's length is: 1.616 252 × 10e-35 meters. Which means it would take 2e6/1.616 252e-35 meters. That is 2e41years. That is longer than even the longest estimates for how long it will take for heat death of the universe. Incidentally, the orbit will have decayed due to tidal forces long before then as well.

3. If other non-quantum events intervene prior to the 2e41 years it will take for quantum effects to be significant, then quantum effects will not be significant. For example the non-quantum effect of the andromeda galaxy colliding into ours will show up in only 2.5 billion years from now.

4. This is what I was talking about with respect to effective granularity. Whether randomness exists or not, it is not necessarily an input to a chaotic system. Assuming it is, justifying it with hand-waving, and failing to do even the simplest calculations to verify your claims, is what I mean by being 'intellectually lazy'


The course of evolution, and the shape of ecosystems is heavily influenced by the history, and an asteroid impact tends to have a severe effect.

This is an extreme example, but still valid.

Over longer timescales, rare events are more likely.

Again, more handwaving, more claims without justification. No reason to believe QM is significant. Also conflation of rare events and random events. Finally your claim reduces to the claim that history/prehistory is random, not that evolution is
random. That is fine if you want to characterize our limited knowledge as randomness, but as I said above, I just consider it lazy. The more we learn, the less 'random' things appear.

Black squirrels seem to be the result of a mutation of grey squirrels, and semed to have been first reported in England in 1912.

This variant tends to be more successful than a grey squirrel, and so they have been spreading at the expense of grey squirrels. Now the numbers of black squirrels are sufficient that you could talk about a slective advantage, and ignore random factors. In 1912 this would not be the case, as the small popuolation (initially one individual) would have been vulnerable to chance* events. As the grey squirrel population is not increasing fourfold every year, we can be confident that most squirrels fail to reproduce. Even though the black squirrel had a higher chance of reproducing, the odds were still agianst that particular mutation spreading.

That is a huge amount of extrapolation from a few sentences of pop-sci article. Do a little bit of research on black and grey squirrels and we learn that they did not develop from a single random mutation but are common to the Americas. Where they developed as part of a long evolutionary process. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Squirrel

Also from your article:
"At the time when grey squirrels were new to the UK, black squirrels started to be noticed on a Hertfordshire common. The first sighting is believed to be as early as 1912."
This quote seems to claim simultaneous introduction of black & grey squirrels. As the wikipedia article shows. Black & Grey squirrels have differential success depending on geography. So a population of black & grey squirrels was introduced to the UK, and the subtype that was most appropriate for the UK became dominant. So the only thing that you might characterize as random is the introduction, but that was probably by humans. So do want to call human behavior random? Do you want to call it directed? Either way it is not an issue that is particular to evolution in nature.
 

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