Merged Odds Standard for Preliminary Test

[Rodney]

Allow me to provide a response on their behalf, then.

Apply, or go away.

That's an interesting response, considering that we previously had this exchange:

Me: "Are you saying that the JREF would accept a time-consuming Ganzfeld protocol?"

You: "Probably not. The problem in this case isn't the the time so much as the opportunity for cheating (and the time spent by the JREF). If the researcher could propose an iron-clad protocol that was impossible to cheat (and bearing in mind that Randi does not know enough about cryptography to accept most of the standard cryptographic protocols that would commonly be used -- with good reason), there's no reason that he woudn't accept such a protocol." See http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3692057&postcount=31

So, what you seem to be saying is that a Ganzfeld proponent should file an application detailing how its protocol will be fraud-proof and hope that the JREF will condescend to accept it, knowing that no matter how much time the proponent expends on preparing the application, the JREF will probably refuse to accept it on the grounds that the protocol is not "iron-clad" enough to prevent cheating.

 

[thaiboxerken]

No, Rod, that's not what he's saying at all. Why are you such a dishonest person?

He's simply saying "apply or go away."

 

[Pope130]

Rodney,
In every case the applicant prepares a protocol in hopes the it will be accepted. No one is guaranteed acceptance. Yet many proposals have been made, negotiated and approved. Why are (or should) Ganzfeld experimenters (be) treated differently?

Robert Klaus

 

[pavel_do]

May I say something...

Hello to everyone,
First of all would like to THANK Rodney, Speed of light, Rasmus and the others for posting there questions and trying to make it as FAIR as possible not simply sayng that the rule.. cause it come to the 2 rules:
Rule number one - Randi always right,
Rule number 2 - if Randi not right, see rule number one… full stop.

Will tell you about my experience as the person who applying with the claim.
I read all the tread and discussions, I am sorry if I am not quoting some words of yours and simply reply in general…

Re to the odds, no the rules not stating the 1.000 odds to be bitten, but in the same time from the JREF answer on my question about odds was “The statistical significance involved in a Preliminary Challenge Test must be 1 in 1,000.” That from the email that I received from JREF.

So lets see my claim, I can say what photograph in the sealed envelope just by holding it in my hands.. Ok.. great.. WHAT if I can perform it with the accuracy 70%... you would say fair enough apply with the accuracy… OK great but what is the point of the applying if JREF says it must be 1 to 1000 odds…
We all (smart people and the one who ready to open there mind a bit..) understand that you cant actually judge person from 1 test or trial if he could not perform something.
Let say a singer with a unique voice can perform gratly at home with friends and family and people who like it etc.. but when it come to the point that he has to perfor it infrotm of people who let say no realy kin of addmitign any talent and not willing to be late say fair to possibility of it demonstration.. The singer would not be able to perfom due to the stress, pressure all the conditions etc.. would that mean he is fake? NO.. that would not.. So why the same thing can not be taken to condsidiration by JREF..?? as emotional state important in every aspect of life and we all know that. Ok some one said..

“The Million Dollar Challenge is not a contest. It is not a research project. It is not a means of screening the population for paranormal talents. It is a challenge to those who claim they have paranormal abilities, to demonstrate them and win $1,000,000.”
But in the same time it make everyone FAKE and not really giving chance to prove it wrong in a sense if I come and will not be able to perform it in 1 or 2 runs for JREF for what ever reasons: stress, weather, bad mood, pressure, condition etc.. that will make me automatically FAKE for the JREF and JREF will make sure everyone will know that I am failed.. isn’t it? And what we have? All skeptics have one argument there is JREF 1.000.000 no one took it than it is not real.. GREAT
That makes skeptic a cynic two in one…
So, when some one says.. if you can do that, it should not matter to you how many odds are 100 or 100.000.000 .. that right but is evryone can play piano and thouse who can do they play with same score and same way... and what is metter is.. Do they all play the same way, always great at any time and any conditions wether it is emotional or enveromental...

I guess it would be more fair to say..
Come, tell us what you can do, how and at what conditions, then Do it, show us. Bare in mind, if you cheating we will find it out and will repeat it the same way you done it.. if you still claim it was real, we will tell you where and how we think you cheated and if you agree to eliminate this possible ways you used and will still be able to perform it than you are a real case… That would be fair isn’t it??
In JREF case it is different story... as an example, at first I was thinking and planning to apply with the telepathy test, where my friend would look at the picture and would send it to me by thought, there would be no talking or any way of a contacts or me getting any clues. My eyes would be covered with the mask to eliminate visual disturbance and possibility to see any signs from any one, my ears would be covered with ear plugs to eliminate possible sound disturbance and any sound clues.. what ever… I need just be calm and seat on the table opposite my friend…
The answer from JREF was “I have run your query by other JREF representatives, and they agree that it would not be possible to conduct the test with your friend in the same room as you.”

Do any body knows exactly what is telepathy or clairvoyance etc? Maybe it is kind of waives (electromagnetic from the brain) that let says can work fro 2 meter up to kilometers depend on personal abilities.. What if this kind of telepathy work from maximum 2 meters from each other…it can not be claimed any more cause it too easy?? cause it is officially proved that it can be done with no limit's of distance and conditions like people can be in different rooms etc..?? I don’t think so…

The reason to eliminate cheating.. why are you there then?? TO make sure it is not faked.. My eyes covered my ears covered, not physical contact whatsoever with my friend just setting opposite each other.
So I had to drop the claim and change it in a way when I can perform it on my own. ( still want that friend to be present during testing as a support I need ar least some one who believe s in me as when whole room is against you that is affecting the results whether we want it or not a specially lets just think that if person psychic and a bit more sensitive then a average person. Then it is possible to pick up this negativity.. Like when you try to read a book and memorize lines.. and there is a noise HAVY METAL ROCK sound.. I guess it will effect your performing isn’t it?

Ok… even then we’ll drop it… No one care about your feelings… fair enough but if it is possible cause of not being able to perform anything paranormal.. than it should be taken to consideration.
As I said before I am applying now with the claim where I can perform in on my own, yesterday I got finally academic witnessing to be able to submit my claim (according the new rule) though it wasn’t that easy to find academics for that as most of them simply not taking you serious.
Still managed to get it, thank God.
So all I have to do now is to write my claim and the accuracy. Still thinking what accuracy I can reasonably claim taking to consideration that it is different make it at home when I do 9-10 out of 10 and under stress and all that conditions the results can be not that good. Let say I will claim I can perform it with the accuracy 70% or by beating minimum 1 to 150 odds. Will it be accepted by JREF? Don’t know for now we’ll see soon. Just one thing If it is not paranormal let say to guess 7-8 cards out of 10 for example. That is more than the odds by chance, and if it is not considered paranormal-unusual, why then it can’t be performed by any one? JREF and the other would say it can be a chance… Fair enough show it your self… as you can say about chance to everything, like people winning lottery when there chances is 1 to many millions and some of them winning 2-3 times.. Chance… there is always chance…of wining or losing BUT you cant say by one trial that it is not real if person failed, because let face it.. Some one said, if the odds less than 1 to 1.000 it will take more time to show the result.. Any one in a rush? Why don’t you make 1 hour test during let say 5 days and the last day you make conclusion based on the result if it is worth making any more tests as it seem like there is a chance of something unusual or it is normal chances and there is no any phenomena it it.. I guess it would be fair… One more thing, no one passed so far even first test… Hopefully I will do that I am reasonable with my abilities and not too stupid to think and claim I can always perform it 90-100%.. so let say we have a test with 10 pairs of 2 different photos, I know what pairs is.. so one of 2 photos handled to me and I have to say what it is ( in sealed envelope) just by holding it in my hands.. so the chance for that is 50/50 ok let say I performed 9 that beat allot of odds isn’t it.. So.. let say I made 10 of 10 beaten 1.000 odds.. do you think JREF will admit straight a way I passed the test..?? I doubt it.. I am sure I will be asked to make lets say 2 more runs.. and if I cant show same results second and 3d run.. let say I am tired, stressed etc.. Does it make my first result just chance? For that reason again it would be more fair for 2 parties to make final decision up on a few runs.. Said so, it is fair to say.. if there would be 1 run and I failed it I would say I need 2-3 more runs, maybe first didn’t worked out cause it didn’t too much stress etc.. So it would be fair? And unfair if after 1st test JREF would say…FAILED full stop… same as I would not be fair if I pass 10 out of 10 from 1st test and JREF would ask me to make 2 more trials and I would say NO I done it whether it chance or my gift I done it.. so It would be fair for both sides to make the finally decision up on the results of a few trials. I am sorry If I am a bit confusing in putting my thought to the lines, as the English is not my native language. Still I guess my point is clear.
So I will try to claim obviously not 1 to 1000 odds and let say 3-5 runs of the trial not 1. and I will claim that upon the 3-5 runs I would be able to perform X odds cause let say If I can get 1 time 7 photos right second time 8 and lets say third only 5. I guess upon all of it there would be significant of beating odds of more then a chances… and if you open your mind for it you can see it.. and of course if you not willing to do it at all.. even if I make all tri times 7 right and not 1 time 9 or 10 you will say.. FAILED and if I say.. if it is not supernatural or unusual…DO IT, repeat it, show it.. and I know what the answer r will be.. I AM NOT CLAIMING TO BE ABLE TO DO IT… great answer
Good luck to us all!
Regards
Pavel

 

[Paul2]

Let say a singer with a unique voice can perform gratly at home with friends and family and people who like it etc.. but when it come to the point that he has to perfor it infrotm of people who let say no realy kin of addmitign any talent and not willing to be late say fair to possibility of it demonstration.. The singer would not be able to perfom due to the stress, pressure all the conditions etc.. would that mean he is fake? NO.. that would not.. So why the same thing can not be taken to condsidiration by JREF..?? as emotional state important in every aspect of life and we all know that.

There's no way to tell in this scenario whether the person can actually do what they say or not. In this scenario. the person could be claiming to do something for all sorts of reasons and not actually do it, or they could actually do it and not be able to demonstrate it. And without the type of controls that the JREF would insist upon, there's no way to tell the difference. *That's* the problem. Sure, maybe the person can do it and just can't demonstrate it under controlled conditions for some reason. And maybe I'm the Queen of England, too. In both cases, why bother discussing it, because we'll never know the truth. It's a meaningless question because there's no way to resolve the question. So we move on to things we can discover.

It's like saying "I can do something, but I can never show you." Who would care? Why would we care?

 

[Rodney]

Rodney,
In every case the applicant prepares a protocol in hopes the it will be accepted. No one is guaranteed acceptance. Yet many proposals have been made, negotiated and approved. Why are (or should) Ganzfeld experimenters (be) treated differently?

Robert Klaus

Because most proposals are not that complex and involve limited JREF time. For example, if someone claims to be able to read face-down playing cards, it's easy to devise a protocol to test that claim and the test will take only an hour or so. But devising a protocol for a Ganzfeld experiment is complicated, and the test will take weeks, if not months.

 

[Pope130]

Because most proposals are not that complex and involve limited JREF time. For example, if someone claims to be able to read face-down playing cards, it's easy to devise a protocol to test that claim and the test will take only an hour or so. But devising a protocol for a Ganzfeld experiment is complicated, and the test will take weeks, if not months.

I'm not following your response here. Why is that a reason to not apply?

 

[Rodney]

I'm not following your response here. Why is that a reason to not apply?

Because preparing the application and negotiating with the JREF will be time-consuming and, in all likelihood, futile, for a Ganzfeld applicant. Such an applicant need the assurance that (s)he will not just be wasting time. Again, as I noted in post # 6 on this thread, a person involved in Ganzfeld experiments told me that the MDC is "so hedged and the criteria for success so arbitrarily set up and changeable at his [Randi's] whim that nobody will ever be able to pass his test."

 

[Rasmus]

Because preparing the application and negotiating with the JREF will be time-consuming and, in all likelihood, futile, for a Ganzfeld applicant.

If the applicant knows what they can do, under which conditions they can do it and what their success level is, it should be dead simple to write an initial protocol.

A waste of time? Gee, why not just refer to those 10 or 15 minutes as an investment for the one million dollars instead?

Such an applicant need the assurance that (s)he will not just be wasting time.

Such an applicant had the times to go through the experiments to determine that they had a small paranormal ability, yet they don't have the time to basically write down what they actually can do for a million dollars?

Do you have any idea how foolish you sound?

Again, as I noted in post # 6 on this thread, a person involved in Ganzfeld experiments told me that the MDC is "so hedged and the criteria for success so arbitrarily set up and changeable at his [Randi's] whim that nobody will ever be able to pass his test."

Did they apply? Did they submit a protocol? Or were they just talking out of their rear ends?

Once again: If you actually do have a paranormal ability you can easily (!) win the challenge.

Of course, the claim you quote has nothing to do with what kind of claims are permissible, or how complicated it would be to apply. In fact, it is a claim made about all applications/claimed abilities and nothing to do with the small margin you are talking about.

 

[tsig]

Because most proposals are not that complex and involve limited JREF time. For example, if someone claims to be able to read face-down playing cards, it's easy to devise a protocol to test that claim and the test will take only an hour or so. But devising a protocol for a Ganzfeld experiment is complicated, and the test will take weeks, if not months.

Then i suggest you get right to it. Every minute you waste here is costing you money.

 

[tsig]

That's an interesting response, considering that we previously had this exchange:

Me: "Are you saying that the JREF would accept a time-consuming Ganzfeld protocol?"

You: "Probably not. The problem in this case isn't the the time so much as the opportunity for cheating (and the time spent by the JREF). If the researcher could propose an iron-clad protocol that was impossible to cheat (and bearing in mind that Randi does not know enough about cryptography to accept most of the standard cryptographic protocols that would commonly be used -- with good reason), there's no reason that he woudn't accept such a protocol." See http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3692057&postcount=31

So, what you seem to be saying is that a Ganzfeld proponent should file an application detailing how its protocol will be fraud-proof and hope that the JREF will condescend to accept it, knowing that no matter how much time the proponent expends on preparing the application, the JREF will probably refuse to accept it on the grounds that the protocol is not "iron-clad" enough to prevent cheating.

You're claiming "sour grapes" without even eating them.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Those evil JREF people will turn down my application, I just know it!

 

[tsig]

Those evil JREF people will turn down my application, I just know it!

Is it the fear of rejection or the fear of being outed?

 

[Rodney]

If A waste of time? Gee, why not just refer to those 10 or 15 minutes as an investment for the one million dollars instead?

If you think the time involved would be 10-15 minutes, you're completely out of touch with reality.

 

[pavel_do]

If you think the time involved would be 10-15 minutes, you're completely out of touch with reality.

It took me a year to assemble all that necessary to be able to apply for the challenge, such as to get affidavit from 2 academics, media coverage and the Application that was notarized together with the claim. So only after 1 year and 1 month I am ready to send my application.

Though if that would be with Old rules, that would take maximum a day.. as there was no need for the affidavits and media presence, all you had to do is notarize your application and not to forget to send it to JERF

 

[thaiboxerken]

Ganzfield studies already have a media presence and would not need affidavits. All they would have to do is apply. Of course, I am not holding my breath for Rodney's buddies to actually take time to apply, as they've already decided that the JREF won't accept their test EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVEN'T TRIED.

I think it's because they know that they won't be allowed to cheat and that the JREF won't change the rules to allow them to cheat. Instead, Rodney does what most advocates of the paranormal do, whine about the JREF challenge in order to try to discredit it. Rather than prove their assertions, people like Rodney would rather attack the critics.

 

[pavel_do]

Ganzfield studies already have a media presence and would not need affidavits. All they would have to do is apply. Of course, I am not holding my breath for Rodney's buddies to actually take time to apply, as they've already decided that the JREF won't accept their test EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVEN'T TRIED.

I think it's because they know that they won't be allowed to cheat and that the JREF won't change the rules to allow them to cheat. Instead, Rodney does what most advocates of the paranormal do, whine about the JREF challenge in order to try to discredit it. Rather than prove their assertions, people like Rodney would rather attack the critics.

But lets be fair.. the JREF challenge rules is not 100% perfect and they not so to say very friendly and open to admit some facts... Though it is not the reason not to apply

 

[thaiboxerken]

I see nothing wrong with the challenge rules. It accomplishes the goal of keeping people from cheating.

 

[pavel_do]

I see nothing wrong with the challenge rules. It accomplishes the goal of keeping people from cheating.

I guess it would be more fair to say..
Come, tell us what you can do, how and at what conditions, then Do it, show us. Bare in mind, if you cheating we will find it out and will repeat it the same way you done it.. if you still claim it was real, we will tell you where and how we think you cheated and if you agree to eliminate this possible ways you used and will still be able to perform it than you are a real case… That would be fair isn’t it??

 

[thaiboxerken]

Pavel, you've just paraphrased the JREF challenge. The rules are outlined very specifically to take out any wiggle room, as there are a few dollars at stake.