cyborg said:
the important part is the deterministic relationships - i.e. what things will have a causal effect on other things and conversly what things will not have a causal effect on other things.
I'd agree with that.
ETA: but how do you determine this? Its the first collison deterministic? yes, its the n'th collision deterministic? yes with respect to its immediate predescessors, but no with respect to the first, if n is more than 12. There have been no other external inputs, so the result of the nth impact isn't determined by the (n-12)th impact. The 12th impact and beyond are random.
Biology is more complex than snooker balls, so with more random influences
However if you are discussing a chaotic system, you might be able to describe the feedback loops both positive and negative, but you won't be able to descibe what the effects of these will be beyond a certain time in the future.
In the snooker ball case, we hypothetically knowe the inputs to the theoretical (quantum) resolution. We know the laws of motion governing the balls. We can easily know what happens after the first impact... and second... but not the twelfth. There have been no further external inputs.
In biological systems I am saying it would be theoretically impossible to say that owlet x will breed successfully, because all the traits might be in its favour, as events could overtake it. These events will have immediate causes, but mixed up with them will be random causes.
You can obviously predict some failures with 100% accuracy, the sterile etc...
Do you see what I am saying that if the fitness environment is chaotic, then it will also be subject to random changes (probably over long ttimescales relative to a human lifetime, but short relative to life's tenure on Earth)?
A single mutation could spread, and completely alter the fitness environment for many organisms. A slight change in the structure of H5N1 might be a catastrophic demonstration of that. Without modern medicine, there could be a strong selective pressure arising on humanity from one slight change to a virus.