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Does Obama Have a "White" Problem?

I think that Obama suffers getting said "Blue Collar White" vote versus Hillary "every state is my home state, I am the working girl to the tune of 100 Million" Clinton. No doubt, she beats him in that demographic.

If he is chosen leader of the DEMs, however, I think with 5 months to go (if they end it in June), you will see a dramatic, DRAMATIC shift in tone, and focus, that will, along with the prospect of an eternal war, and 4 more years of BUSH, allow Obama to prevail.

Only time will tell though.

TAM:)
 
T.A.M. said:
If he is chosen leader of the DEMs, however, I think with 5 months to go (if they end it in June), you will see a dramatic, DRAMATIC shift in tone, and focus, that will, along with the prospect of an eternal war, and 4 more years of BUSH, allow Obama to prevail.
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"Eternal war?" Is that the meme Obama is going to campaign on? That a vote for McCain is a vote for "eternal war?"
 
BPSCG said:
"Eternal war?" Is that the meme Obama is going to campaign on? That a vote for McCain is a vote for "eternal war?"
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Why are you asking this of T.A.M.? He's a Canadian citizen with no connection to the Obama campaign. What gives you the impression that he has special insight into what Obama will campaign on? Curious. :con2:
 
I think Obama’s biggest "White" problem is his white grannie that he keeps under lock and key in her apartment in Hawaii.

The stories she could tell.
 
The topic gets discussed at TalkLeft (one of the 2-3 largest pro-Hillary blogs). I agree with this point:

African American voters have been a staple of the Democratic coalition. While no constituency should ever be taken for granted, there seems to me no doubt, all things being equal, that holding white Democrats is more of a problem than holding African American Democrats. There is a long history on this issue.
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Of course, you can flip this around; holding male Democrats is more of a problem than holding women Democrats. But it is one of the ironies of the Democrats that during an era (1968-present) when they have lost a huge number of Southern male voters, the only Democrats who have actually been able to win have been Southern men. That's why the candidate many Republicans feared was John Edwards.
 
BPSCG said:
"Eternal war?" Is that the meme Obama is going to campaign on? That a vote for McCain is a vote for "eternal war?"
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It will not be Obama's camp that goes with that but it will be the democratic groups that recycle over and over again McCain's 10,000 years in Iraq. It might not be fair but when have politics ever been fair and that message will work on alot of independents.
 
African American voters have been a staple of the Democratic coalition. While no constituency should ever be taken for granted, there seems to me no doubt, all things being equal, that holding white Democrats is more of a problem than holding African American Democrats. There is a long history on this issue.
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This is apart of the whole entitlement theory Clinton has run on and her hardcore supporters espouse, where she assumes that she will still get the black vote even though rightly or wrongly alot of black voters felt they where race baited. If the turn out of black voters drops 10 to 20 percent which is not out of the ball park if she would have won that makes formally safe states into battleground states. But, of course the ignore some other groups that might stay home such as first time voters and college voters. Though they might not show up in the fall they are much more likely to show up than Clinton's hope of young female voters who have never shown up at the polls.

The other big part i have a problem with is the notion that Obama has a white problem when he really has is an opponent that is getting white women to vote for her. There has not been a blow out in terms of white men going to Hillary in any state that has been contested. I would also wager that though the white men voters might not turn out in any higher raw numbers for a Democrat this year i do think alot of them will stay home in the fall instead of voting for another republican economy. (again ample ammunition of McCain saying he doesn't know anything about the economy).

The group that Obama might lose in the colation though is bitter divorced middle age women that have chips on their shoulders.
 
TheJim said:
The group that Obama might lose in the colation though is bitter divorced middle age women that have chips on their shoulders.
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Do you believe that bitter, divorced, middle age women would rather vote for a guy who is still married to his first wife or a guy that divorced his first wife?
 
TheJim said:
This is apart of the whole entitlement theory Clinton has run on and her hardcore supporters espouse, where she assumes that she will still get the black vote even though rightly or wrongly alot of black voters felt they where race baited. If the turn out of black voters drops 10 to 20 percent which is not out of the ball park if she would have won that makes formally safe states into battleground states. But, of course the ignore some other groups that might stay home such as first time voters and college voters. Though they might not show up in the fall they are much more likely to show up than Clinton's hope of young female voters who have never shown up at the polls.

The other big part i have a problem with is the notion that Obama has a white problem when he really has is an opponent that is getting white women to vote for her. There has not been a blow out in terms of white men going to Hillary in any state that has been contested. I would also wager that though the white men voters might not turn out in any higher raw numbers for a Democrat this year i do think alot of them will stay home in the fall instead of voting for another republican economy. (again ample ammunition of McCain saying he doesn't know anything about the economy).

The group that Obama might lose in the colation though is bitter divorced middle age women that have chips on their shoulders.
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Women will come out strongly for Obama. He's done nothing to alienate women, other than run a strong campaign against Hillary. There may be a handful of women who are so disappointed about not seeing Hillary nominated that they will stay home or cast a write-in vote, but they certainly won't swing to McCain. Even many or most of these women, though--feminists whose main motivation was to see a woman in the White House before they die--will "hold their noses" and vote for the Democrat.
 
If Obama wins the nomination, another thing that could drastically affect the "white problem" (if it exists) is who he chooses as a running mate. I would assume Edwards' name is in the hat.
 
Hokulele said:
If Obama wins the nomination, another thing that could drastically affect the "white problem" (if it exists) is who he chooses as a running mate. I would assume Edwards' name is in the hat.
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I think that would be a wise choice.
 
Hokulele said:
If Obama wins the nomination, another thing that could drastically affect the "white problem" (if it exists) is who he chooses as a running mate. I would assume Edwards' name is in the hat.
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I would bet the mortgage payment that it will not be Edwards. He brings nothing to the table that about 4 to 6 other names on the short list will not bring like a Webb or a Warner for example. He is not overwhelming popular in even his home state nor did he really do anything in the south in either election. He was always the third candidate this election so he does not bring in any major demographic there. He was a pain in the ass and a loose cannon as VP last time and had to be talked up for the debate, and a few of the guys that helped vett VPs for Kerry are on Obama's staff so that will not be forgotten.


If I were to have a short list it would be Webb, Warner, Clark, Richardson, Sebelius or someone from Colorado, Penn or Ohio. I would peg Webb as my front runner right now as he is not even playing as a fighter, he is seen as strong on FP, and though i dont put stock on regional candidates putting anything but their own state into play he can only help to turn Virginia. Personnaly I think he is exactly what you are looking for in a VP.
 
Hokulele said:
If Obama wins the nomination, another thing that could drastically affect the "white problem" (if it exists) is who he chooses as a running mate. I would assume Edwards' name is in the hat.
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He's already declined. I believe him; who'd want to run for VP a second time after losing the first time around? The whole argument for accepting the VP nod is that you inherit the mantle of frontrunner the next time around. But Edwards didn't get it

The obvious possibilities are Rendell (even though he endorsed Clinton) because he helps in Pennsylvania, or Richardson (because he helps with Hispanics). The problem Obama has is that there's not a lot of great female governors right now. Janet Napolitano as Veep is not going to swing Arizona, nor can Kathleen Sebelius turn Kansas blue.

I say Rendell. Nobody can win without two of three states--Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is going to lose Florida barring a landslide for the Democrats. So he has to shore up Pennsylvania which was obviously only tepid to Obamania.
 
Brainster said:
He's already declined. I believe him; who'd want to run for VP a second time after losing the first time around? The whole argument for accepting the VP nod is that you inherit the mantle of frontrunner the next time around. But Edwards didn't get it.
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Ah, I missed that the first time around. I agree, if he is on record declining, he will hold to that. I am guessing his wife had some influence on that decision as well.

The obvious possibilities are Rendell (even though he endorsed Clinton) because he helps in Pennsylvania, or Richardson (because he helps with Hispanics). The problem Obama has is that there's not a lot of great female governors right now. Janet Napolitano as Veep is not going to swing Arizona, nor can Kathleen Sebelius turn Kansas blue.
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I really, really like Richardson (would have caucused for him if he had still been in the running), but I just can't see the Democrats going for a double-minority ticket. It would be nice, but I really can't see it. There is enough nonsense going around regarding Obama as it is.

I say Rendell. Nobody can win without two of three states--Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is going to lose Florida barring a landslide for the Democrats. So he has to shore up Pennsylvania which was obviously only tepid to Obamania.
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Mmmm, traditionally most tickets try to split up the geography a bit better. It sounds like I will either have to do some research as to viable candidates, or just wait and see.
 
Juan Williams checks in:

The facts are stubborn, however. Since his phenomenal win with 33% of the white vote in nearly all-white Iowa, Obama has been unable to get a firm grip on white Democrats. He has won a majority of these voters in only six states, the biggest of which is his home state of Illinois. Clinton has defeated Obama among white voters in key states such as California, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Exit polls show Clinton winning an overwhelming average of 57% of white Democrats since the February Super Tuesday elections.

If you think none of this is a real issue for Democrats as they try to win the White House, then listen to Republican guru Karl Rove. Citing Obama's inability to get more than 30% of Catholics or working-class white voters in a big state such as Pennsylvania, Rove recently wrote: "Defections like this elect Republicans."
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He'll just have to win other states like Virginia and Colorado to compensate. And I think his chances in Ohio and PA aren't so bad. West Virginia is expendable. It's not a big state and I don't buy "bellweather" theory. A state is only a bellweather until it isn't anymore. They used to say Maine was a bellweather state.

Two potential Veep picks from VA: Webb and Warner. Ted Strickland from Ohio is also in the mix
 
Puppycow said:
He'll just have to win other states like Virginia and Colorado to compensate. And I think his chances in Ohio and PA aren't so bad. West Virginia is expendable. It's not a big state and I don't buy "bellweather" theory. A state is only a bellweather until it isn't anymore. They used to say Maine was a bellweather state.

Two potential Veep picks from VA: Webb and Warner. Ted Strickland from Ohio is also in the mix
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Then McCain counters with Wisconsin and Michigan. You forget that McCain really IS a popular Republican with a lot of democrats and independents and VERY popular with Hispanics.
 
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