About that bottom Five Percent

[Darth Rotor]

At the end of Senator John McCain's primary victory speech tonight, a band struck up Chuck Berry's "Johnny By Goode" as he left the stage. Is Johnny gonna be good? His path to this point hasn't always been marked by stellar. Maybe good is enough.

But what is good enough?

When I was a junior officer, a sentiment allegedly voiced by Admiral Rickover made the rounds (Rickover was the legendary father of the nuclear navy).

It went like this: he was most interested in the top five percent of each graduating class at Annapolis, since they were generally so darned smart, and the bottom five percent, who by necessity were such hard workers that they took their talents as far as they could, and by their exceptional industry accomplished a great deal.

One can safely bet that in the late 1950's, when John McCain graduated deep within the bottom five percent of his class, that Rickover's scouts weren't looking for him, nor interested in him, as they hand selected the cadre of what was to become the leadership of the nuclear power community within the Navy for decades. People he picked are the nuclear trained flag officers still.

One of Rickover's protoges, Admiral McKee, while Academy Superintendent, had a different take on the Five Percent club -- the label he applied to the 5% of mids, and people in general, who were the trouble makers that evoked draconian responses from a given establishment. (Soon after that speech, one could find t-shirts with "Charter Member, Five Percent club" at the gym. Nothing like a sound byte to inspire wit. ) "Because the five percent club did this, no liberty for underclassmen this weekend" and so on.

Senator McCain is a member of both five percent clubs, which puts him in either the 2.5% club, or .25% club.

Rarified air is breathed by those in the bilges, or perpahs ripe air.
With a rep as not the sharpest knife in the drawer, and a rep as a trouble maker, somehow he has found a way into political success. (This combo reminds me of my own evaluation when trying out for a football squad: it was noted that while I was not very large, I wasn't fleet of foot.)

Such a heartwarming story. Hard working trouble maker does good. Is making good, he has embraced the reputation of a maverick as a Senator, deservedly or not.

What's a maverick? From our friends at Freedictionary:

mav·er·ick (mvr-k, mvrk)
n. 1. An unbranded range animal, especially a calf that has become separated from its mother, traditionally considered the property of the first person who brands it.

2. One that refuses to abide by the dictates of or resists adherence to a group; a dissenter. (Gee, that sounds a bit like Ron Paul, doesn't it?)

adj. Being independent in thought and action or exhibiting such independence: maverick politicians; a maverick decision.

We've had intellectually talented presidents, Jimmy Carter for example, and Thomas Jefferson, whose records as presidents were mixed. We've had a Maverick here and there, Andrew Jackson or Teddy Roosevelt, whose capacity to shake up the system are the hallmarks of their terms.

Is John McCain a maverick in that tradition?

Cynics might suggest that the first definition for maverick, the one who is claimed by the first who found the stray, might be more applicable. It's a less than flattering use of the term.

Like it or not, America, you have a maverick in the Presidential Rodeo. Get your beer and popcorn, this will be entertaining.

Is a maverick what America needs? Is a maverick who America wants?

The next eight months will tell us a lot, about the prospects for a five percenter's potential for the highest office in the land.

I once suggested to my father that America needed another Teddy Roosevelt as president. Dad was a political science major, and has always taken a keen interest in politics.

His response: "I'm not sure America could handle another TR."

It might be time to test that hypothesis. My next question is: who is the rodeo clown who will accompany this maverick into the arena? (Who will be his VP candidate?)

DR

 

[BPSCG]

I realized this isn't the thrust of your OP, but there's a baseball analogy here.

One of the best professional baseball players in the country will spend much of the season sitting on the bench, trying to get some playing time in spite of his paltry .224 batting average and lack of power.

In other words, one of the worst baseball players in professional ball is still one of the best 700 or so in a country of 300 million.

I'm told that getting into any of the service academies is not easy, and sticking it out for the ensuing four years is no mean feat, either. You don't get in just because your dad donated $1,000,000 for a new dorm.

So that bottom five-percenter might be the equivalent of a baseball bench-warmer. But he's probably still on another planet from most of the rest of us.

Back to the thrust of the OP: Does the maverick want another maverick? I don't think so. McCain has to convince a lot of doubting Repubs that he shares their principles, or persuade them to change theirs. That's harder to do when your running mate is also a maverick. I think Romney is McCain's best choice. He can point to a record of actual accomplishment in both the private and the public sector, and as someone who knows how to make money in the private sector, he gives McCain some credibility on economic issues. He actually got health care reform enacted in Massachusetts - not necessarily a good thing, from the point of view of a lot of Republicans, but when McCain asks, "How well did HillaryCare work out when you were first lady?" it will carry some weight with Romney on the ticket. (That's assuming Clinton is the nominee, rather than Al Gore...)

That having been said, I think he'll pick someone whose name I barely recognize.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Does it matter? I don't think the veep nominee brings much to the table. Not like the good old days when bringing Lyndon onto the ticket guaranteed you the smarmier side of the Dem party, and their entire machine.*

Ultimately, the attention is to the presidential candidate. I think maybe Geraldine mobilized some of the female vote by her presence on the ticket, but not enough to get them into office.

The thing McCain probably needs to do from his point of view is to shut Rush Limbaugh up by going for someone with conservative bona fides. Not so much that the fundies will vote for Obama or Hillary; more that they'll stay home in large numbers, reckoning Godless John and Godless Democrats are one and the same. Single-issue voters are like that. The fundies and arch conservatives still have the ability to push you over the top in a tight race if they muster the turnout.



*There is such a play available, had the guy in office for the past eight years not been Dubya. Jeb Bush. He has the family credentials, fundies would approve, he'd bring in two battleground states, Florida and Texas, almost automatically, and more important he'd bring in mommy and daddy's machine and NWO support!

As it is, though, McCain's got to fly to Washington to thank George for his support and then will probably file a restraining order mandating that Dubya cannot be in the same state with him! He's going to try to run so far away from George that it will be nuts. Putting Jeb on the ticket this year would solidify Obama's approach (calling it John McCain's and George Bush's war).

 

[marksman]

I'd be surprised if McCain didn't pick Romney as his Veep, or someone with similar credentials.

That said, I often look through my old college and law school monthly nesletters and try to figure out what happened to the bottom of the clas and the top of the class. Bottom line? We're all doing about the same. Some made it, some didn't. Some succeeded and some didn't. But the class standing seems to have little connection to that success.

Success is caused by something ephemeral. Does McCain have it? Sometimes a life-changing experience can turn a middling career around. Sometimes a stellar career can be brought low by personal tragedy. Is McCain the former? I guess we'll find out.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I realized this isn't the thrust of your OP, but there's a baseball analogy here.

One of the best professional baseball players in the country will spend much of the season sitting on the bench, trying to get some playing time in spite of his paltry .224 batting average and lack of power.

In other words, one of the worst baseball players in professional ball is still one of the best 700 or so in a country of 300 million.

Aye. W was a fighter pilot, which isn't easy to become, but that did not prepare him to be a talented politician. Duke Cunningham was a figher pilot, and a very good one, but that does not seem to have made him a good and honest politician. Lyndon Johnson was a superb Senatorial politician, but look at his White House tour.

There is a Peter Principle line here, but I'll let it slide.

I'm told that getting into any of the service academies is not easy, and sticking it out for the ensuing four years is no mean feat, either. You don't get in just because your dad donated $1,000,000 for a new dorm.

True enough.

When I applied, I think the applicants were about 7-8000 for a plebe class of about 1100. A few years ago, a friend's son applied. It was nearly double the applicants for a slightly smaller class.

John McCain's dad, and his grandfather, were Naval Officers, Annapolis men, and Admirals. (IIRC, McCain's dad was not yet an Admiral when he got his appointment.)

I get your point, but he had a connection money can't buy. Sure, he had to be smart enough to hack the academics. Not an easy load. And he had to work hard enough to get his wings. Also not a trivial path to tread.

DR

 

[Dr Adequate]

mav·er·ick (mvr-k, mvrk)
n. 1. An unbranded range animal, especially a calf that has become separated from its mother, traditionally considered the property of the first person who brands it.

He's not a maverick any more, he's received Bush's stamp of approval ...

... the crazy W.

 

[Darth Rotor]

He's not a maverick any more, he's received Bush's stamp of approval ...

... the crazy W.

Then go back to def 1, as I noted earlier.

Who branded this stray, in your scenario?

If you listen to some of the GOP shills in the media, McCain isn't really a conservative. (What, no Kilt?)

That makes him a stray.

Subtleties are available, even from me.

DR

 

[Dr Adequate]

Then go back to def 1, as I noted earlier.

Who branded this stray, in your scenario?

If you listen to some of the GOP shills in the media, McCain isn't really a conservative. (What, no Kilt?)

That makes him a stray.

Subtleties are available, even from me.

The point of my post was to make a very very subtle pun. In order to appreciate it, you need to know the technicalities of cattle-branding. If you have to look it up, you will understand it, but not find it funny --- but it made me laugh and giggle for ten minutes straight.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The point of my post was to make a very very subtle pun. In order to appreciate it, you need to know the technicalities of cattle-branding. If you have to look it up, you will understand it, but not find it funny --- but it made me laugh and giggle for ten minutes straight.

Glad you were amused by your own wit. I am familiar with the experience. I got the pun, but didn't get the giggle fits.

Tastes differ.

I note that nobody has broken McCains cavalry saber.

DR

 

[Dr Adequate]

Glad you were amused by your own wit.

It's the way I tell 'em.

 

[SezMe]

I am so tired of this McCain as a maverick meme. What makes him a maverick? He's a beltway insider. Lobbyists are all over his campaign team like white on rice. His Straight Talk Express lost its wheels. I just don't get it.

He's can wear lots of labels, some good, some bad. But maverick? Nope.

 

[Garrette]

My apologies to Darth for my delay in responding. I had intended to spend time contemplating an answer and composing something brilliant and insightful. Alas and alack, my time got taken up with other pursuits and I wasn't able to do so. Therefore, I'm writing this pretty much stream-of-consciousness and without reading anything but the OP.

Regarding the general question of the 5% clubs (top and bottom), it's an interesting study post-event, but I know of nothing that has looked at it ahead of time. Were I in the position to choose either a top 5 percenter or a bottom 5 percenter and I had no other information at all, I would choose the top 5 percenter. On the other hand, if I had complete and accurate resumes on both, top or bottom 5 percent would be one of my last deciding factors.

An interesting aside: Colonel John Boyd told his subordinate officers that they had to choose between being or doing. "Being" would get them securely in the system and virtually assure their promotion. "Doing" would get them noticed but virtually assure they never reached flag rank.

At West Point, one of my roommates was in the running for Goat. That's the cadet who graduates dead last academically. He's the one who receives the loudest chear from his classmates (usually a standing ovation) and traditionally receives a dollar from each of them upon graduating. Some famous folk have been Goats. At some point it became a badge of honor and something actively to be sought.

Those people who in Junior Year realized they have a shot at becoming Goats, as did my roommate, become the most studious of students.
It is no easy thing to achieve the lowest possible grade that does not result in failure. One must understand the homework assignments and exam questions precisely to provide exactly the answers resulting in Ds and not Fs. My roommate pulled many an all-nighter studying for exams he would nearly fail. For the record, he graduated but wasn't the Goat. Someone else who studied harder came closer to failing than he.

---

Regarding the specific question of who will be McCain's running mate: hellifIknow.

A surface analysis tells me he needs to consider

1. A younger person to balance his age but also a more experienced executive type.

2. A more conservative person to balance his moderation but also a more liberal person to balance his moderation.

3. A calmer, more mainstream personality to balance his occasional bluntness and maverick persona but also a firebrand to avoid accusations of selling out.

4. A person who increases his chance for electoral votes in swing states, especially Ohio (probably not possible) and Florida (probably possible) but also someone who isn't obviously chosen for that reason.

5. A person more experienced in domestic and economic policy but..... well, I suppose there's no counterpoint to this one.

And it's the last one that would get it for me. I like McCain. I think he is the one Republican who could be elected without the accumulated Republican baggage, but he's as much as admitted he knows nothing of economics, and it's apparent his grasp of domestic issues in general is lacking. Get a good VP for that, and I think he'd become a much better candidate, though possibly not a more electable one.

Which gets me back to the electoral-vote-getting VP. I've never understood this, and I wonder if it's actually true: Does a VP actually get you electoral votes you would otherwise not have gotten, based solely on home state? Is the electorate in Indiana so superficial that a large enough percentage will go to the polls and say "I don't really like that Bush fella, but now that he's got Quayle, I'm-a-pickin' him!" I voted for Bush I but not because of Quayle, and I'm a Quayle fan. {It's another thread but he was grossly misrepresented in the media.}{

It's sort of like the primary momentum that the media kept touting for Clinton, then Obama, then Clinton, then neither. What a load of hooey.

How many people in Texas and Ohio said "Man, I really prefer Hillary, but Obama won other states so I guess I better vote for him, too." Good grief. A new equation, perhaps, suitable to overturn the classical vision of politics: E(lectoral momentum) = M(ore states) * V(otes)

Is McCain a top 5 percenter? Or bottom? I've no idea. More likely he's a center-mass candidate, just as Hillary and Barack are likely center-mass. Doesn't mean they're average people. It takes (usually) an exceptional person to become president, but being an exceptional person only gets you to average in the White House. No one's defined what makes the top 5 percent of exceptionals once they get there. Most likely a fortuitous mix of ability, personality, and circumstance.

So who should McCain pick as his running mate? In at least some seriousness, and in keeping with his maverick persona, I suggest Al Gore.

That'd shake 'em up.

 

[Darth Rotor]

So who should McCain pick as his running mate? In at least some seriousness, and in keeping with his maverick persona, I suggest Al Gore.

That'd shake 'em up.

And since it's such a bold move, unlikely to happen when a career pol is making a decision.

McCain may once have been a Naval officer, and all that, but he's spent over two decades as a professional pol. I'd say the second career defines the buonds of what he can or will do: the art of the possible, for him.

DR

 

[Darth Rotor]

So who should McCain pick as his running mate? In at least some seriousness, and in keeping with his maverick persona, I suggest Al Gore.

That'd shake 'em up.

And since it's such a bold move, unlikely to happen when a career pol is making a decision.

McCain may once have been a Naval officer, and all that, but he's spent over two decades as a professional pol. I'd say the second career defines the buonds of what he can or will do: the art of the possible, for him.

DR

 

[Dr Adequate]

It's another thread but he was grossly misrepresented in the media.

You say "potatoe" ...

 

[daredelvis]

I voted for Bush I but not because of Quayle, and I'm a Quayle fan. {It's another thread but he was grossly misrepresented in the media.}{

Are you trying to convince me that the media did not portray him as the draft-dodging chicken-hawk, silver-spoon-born, tool-bag that he was? I must have missed that.

Daredelvis

 

[BPSCG]

Ignore.

 

[Garrette]

You say "potatoe" ...

And no one of any worth has ever made a silly mistake when put unexpectedly on the spot. Quayle wasn't expecting to be asked how to spell a word. JFK had time and advisors before uttering "Ich bin ein Berliner."

ETA: Or Al Gore's leopard with unchanging stripes.

 

[Garrette]

Are you trying to convince me that the media did not portray him as...

As it is off topic, I am trying to convince you of absolutely nothing in this regard.

As you have raised, it, I will address it once, though the tenor and vapidness of your post does not deserve it.

the draft-dodging

Wrong. He received no conscription notice, never left the country to avoid one, and served in the Indiana National Guard, where he actually showed up for required drills.

You have as much cause to accuse Clinton of draft dodging not only because he spent much of the Vietnam years in the UK but also because he reneged on his agreement to attend officer training. Frankly, I don't buy it because Clinton received no conscription notice except one which arrived too late (as he was in the UK) and a subsequent one which he responded to but was exempt from due to university study.

chicken-hawk,

Ah, yes. A supporter of war who never fought in one. Much like Abraham Lincoln. Thomas Jefferson, too, who sent the Marines to settle the Barbary Pirates issue. And Clinton. Woodrow Wilson.

An idiotic epithet used by those without solid arguments.

silver-spoon-born,

Don't like upper middle class, I take it? His family did not want, but he was not born into wealth. He went to DePauw University and got his law degree from Indiana University. Both fine schools but a long shot from the the standard silver spoon fare of Princeton, Yale, Harvard, et al.

But suppose he were born rich. So fricking what?

tool-bag

Another thoughtful, insightful, well-considered comment.

If you wish to find the true home of tool-bagginess, I might--from the quality of your post--suggest you look in the mirror.

I must have missed that.

You didn't. That's the point. The media portrayal of Quayle was only slightly more fair and substantive than the drivel you posted here. I'm not complaining about it, though; the media is about the fair to most politicians they cover.

And that ends my contribution to this OT issue.

Daredelvis[/quote]As it is off topic

 

[daredelvis]

As it is off topic, I am trying to convince you of absolutely nothing in this regard.

Not totally, in a discussion of the bottom 5% and a presidential candidate (he did float a balloon for about 30 seconds in '96) Quayle fits right in.

As you have raised, it, I will address it once, though the tenor and vapidness of your post does not deserve it.


Wrong. He received no conscription notice, never left the country to avoid one, and served in the Indiana National Guard, where he actually showed up for required drills.

You have as much cause to accuse Clinton of draft dodging not only because he spent much of the Vietnam years in the UK but also because he reneged on his agreement to attend officer training. Frankly, I don't buy it because Clinton received no conscription notice except one which arrived too late (as he was in the UK) and a subsequent one which he responded to but was exempt from due to university study.

Ah, yes. A supporter of war who never fought in one. Much like Abraham Lincoln. Thomas Jefferson, too, who sent the Marines to settle the Barbary Pirates issue. And Clinton. Woodrow Wilson.

I don't recall Lincoln, or Jefferson's family pulling strings to keep them out of the service during a draft, but if you have some evidence I am all ears.

An idiotic epithet used by those without solid arguments.

If the shoe fits. Chicken-hawk is I term I reserve for those who supported the Vietnam war while using family connections to avoid going overseas. During the '92 election, in his designated position of attack dog (the job of all vice-presidents) he went after Clinton on his draft status. A six year old would have been smart enough to figure out that he was standing in a glass house, but not Dan.

Don't like upper middle class, I take it? His family did not want, but he was not born into wealth. He went to DePauw University and got his law degree from Indiana University. Both fine schools but a long shot from the the standard silver spoon fare of Princeton, Yale, Harvard, et al.

But suppose he were born rich. So fricking what?

Quayle's grandfather was Eugene Pullman, a very wealthy man. Your claim that he was "upper middle class" is laughable. It was these family connections that were used to keep him out of the draft. This is why I feel the pejorative "silver-spoon" fits when discussing Quayle. Apparently, in their opinion, only serfs serve in the war that the Pullman family, the Arizona Republic and Dan Quayle felt was worth fighting.

Another thoughtful, insightful, well-considered comment.

If you wish to find the true home of tool-bagginess, I might--from the quality of your post--suggest you look in the mirror.

His one major crusade while in office was to pick a fight with a fictional character about her "family values". Other then helping to set off the "family values" cr@p, he has little to show for his time in office (there was his amusing misunderstanding of our solar system when he was chairman of the National Space Council), and nothing since he left.

You didn't. That's the point. The media portrayal of Quayle was only slightly more fair and substantive than the drivel you posted here. I'm not complaining about it, though; the media is about the fair to most politicians they cover.

And that ends my contribution to this OT issue.

As it is off topic

You drop a bomb that Quayle was not the man that all evidence at the time and since suggested he was, with no supporting arguments, that is the kind of response you get. All politicians get murdered by the press, some are just easier targets by the nature of the supporting facts, as was the case with Quayle.

My lingering problem with Quayle is that he lowered the bar for what America considers an acceptable candidate for the executive branch. His candidacy and election opened the door to the possibility of G.W.B as a viable candidate, and we all know how well that worked out.

Daredelvis