Reincarnation as a trivial scientific fact

[wollery]

I simply do not believe that fertility rates far below one child per woman are the result of China's one-child policy. Look at Table 4 (Policy Fertility and Recorded Fertility of China's Provinces):

The provinces Jilin, Shandong and Jangxi all had (circa 2000) an policy fertility of around 1.45. Nevertheless actual fertility ranged from 1.0 in Jilin to 2.0 in Jiangxi.

There are many reasons for differences in birth rates. But of course, that's pretty irrelevant, since you're cherry-picking results from that paper.

For instance, table 2 shows an increasing fertility rate, from 1.22 in 2000 to 1.44 in 2004. Figure 2 shows how the fertility rate has fallen since the introduction of the one child policy, but is still above 1. You're confusing total female population with total female population that can have children. These are very different things! Table 2 shows that the vast majority of women have children between the ages of 20 and 30. This is to be expected, since couples are eager to ensure that they can have their child, and the percent fertility rates for these age groups are above 100% every year with only one exception (2000, which was when the fertility rate bottomed out). Also, China's one child policy has lead to a population with an increasingly large proportion of elderly people, and women in their middle ages who have already filled their quota of children, so it is perfectly obvious that the fertility rates for women over 30 will be far lower. Either they are too old to have children, or are forbidden by the policy to have any more. Thus, saying that a fertility rate below 1 child per woman can't be due to the one child policy is naive to say the least.

The paper also points out that around 90 percent of the population fall under either the 1 child or 1.5 child policy rate (>1/3 for 1 child, >1/2 for 1.5 children), which means that the mean fertility rate should be (according to the policy) around 1.35. Yet in 2004 it was 1.44. This shows that there are women having more than their allotted number of children, and a higher national average fertility rate than the policy permits can hardly be said to be a decline in natural fertility!

ETA - It should also be noted that the policy is 1 child per married couple not 1 child per woman, and since not all women will get married, and having a child outside of marriage is almost unheard of in the vast majority of China you would expect the rate to actually be slightly lower that the policy dictates.

 

[bruto]

If Wogoga's hypothesis were true, wouldn't China's law be entirely unnecessary?

Perhaps it's a face-saving fiction, to cover up their embarrassing depletion of soul resources.

 

[zeusbheld]

If Wogoga's hypothesis were true, wouldn't China's law be entirely unnecessary?

Perhaps it's a face-saving fiction, to cover up their embarrassing depletion of soul resources.

you have to be effing kidding. don't you realize the crisis??? now that they've run out of souls they HAVE to shut down the breeding, lest they breed.... i dunno... soulless babies might turn out to be vampires or zombies or ex girlfriends of mine or something. DUH.

 

[wogoga]

I simply do not believe that fertility rates far below one child per woman are the result of China's one-child policy. Look at Table 4 (Policy Fertility and Recorded Fertility of China's Provinces):

The provinces Jilin, Shandong and Jangxi all had (circa 2000) an policy fertility of around 1.45. Nevertheless actual fertility ranged from 1.0 in Jilin to 2.0 in Jiangxi.

...

"There are many reasons for differences in birth rates. But of course, that's pretty irrelevant, since you're cherry-picking results from that paper."

I only presented a good example from Table 4. If in two provinces the allowed fertility is almost identical (1.45 and 1.46), but in one province actual fertility is substantially lower (Jilin with 1.0) and in the other substantially higer (Jiangxi with 2.0), then we must conclude that fertility policy is not decisive. And it is not astonishing at all that in some provinces actual fertility is quite close to policy fertility. According to US Census actual fertility in 2000 was 0.94 in Hong Kong, 0.95 in Macao and an exceptional year-2000-value of 1.68 in Taiwan, which rapidly fell to 1.115 in 2005. If we calculated 'policy fertility' for these regions, they probably woudn't correlate worse with actual fertility than in the case of the provinces of mainland China.

"For instance, table 2 shows an increasing fertility rate, from 1.22 in 2000 to 1.44 in 2004."

A quote from the paper:

"Fertility is most commonly observed by total fertility rate (TFR). China’s measurement of its fertility once was claimed to be 'of very high quality' in the early 1980s (Coale, 1984), but turns to be a focus of debate over years, particularly since the mid-1990s. It was expected to have an answer to the debate with the results of the 2000 population census. Surprisingly, the 2000 census reports a fertility level only at 1.22.* This result has been widely considered 'unacceptable', and even for the National Statistics Bureau to see it as 'too low'. More debates arise on China’s fertility level in recent years, and the estimation ranges from as low as 1.35 to as high as 2.3 (see in Chen and Guo 2006).

* NSB (2003) later adjusted the 2000 total fertility rate to 1.4 according to the short form of the census." ​

So the apparent fertility increase from 1.22 to 1.44 in Table 2 results primarily from the use of different data sources for different years. But why was the result of the 2000 population census considered so "unacceptable" that the hypothesis that up to almost 50% of the newborn are hidden from the authorities became predominant? Probably one simply could not imagine that a fertilty policy actually works.

Yet the primary reason for this fertility decline is obviously something very different from a policy. As absurd as it may sound in the ears of many: Chinese fertility decline is the direct consequence of an increasing shortage of unborn chinese souls.

"You're confusing total female population with total female population that can have children."

It almost amuses me to see how everybody is desirous of thinking that I'm confused.

"Also, China's one child policy has lead to a population with an increasingly large proportion of elderly people, ..."

Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and other countries and regions are in the same situation without a one-child-policy.

But the policy actually could have a positive effect on childlessness: less parents with more than one child lead to more parents with at least one child.

Cheers, Wolfgang

 

[zeusbheld]

<<cue theremin music>>

 

[MattusMaximus]

But each one is sucked on by 10,000 Thetans (unless you have the revelation of OT VII -- where it gets even worse).

Edited to add: Sorry MattusMaximus, I did not read to the end of the thread before posting and you beat me to the Thetans. Although, obviously you have not reach OT VII as yet -- where the EVEN GREATER TRVTH
about Thetans is revealed.

Okay, is there something I'm missing with the whole thetan thing? I thought I already knew the whole crazy story a la "Trapped in the Closet" from South Park. Please share the even greater "TRVTH" - I'm ready to have my mind blown

 

[quarky]

Its bound to be freaking weird; the truth of the matter.

Woo isn't weird enough when it pretends to understand weird stuff...that's my beef.

(I miss the hundred foot tall bearded white god, with all his threats)

 

[bruto]

It almost amuses me to see how everybody is desirous of thinking that I'm confused.

Keep working at it. Somebody is bound to be amused before this is all over.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Keep working at it. Somebody is bound to be amused before this is all over.

I'm amused. This is some of the most hilarious crap I've read in a long time... psychons... evolving souls...

 

[wollery]

As absurd as it may sound in the ears of many: Chinese fertility decline is the direct consequence of an increasing shortage of unborn chinese souls.

Related to this, but a little off topic, I have a question.

I was born in England, the son of an Austrian Ashkenazi Jew of Czech Jewish ancestry and an English Jew with part English and part Dutch Ashkenazi heritage, whilst my fiancé is Chinese, of the Han ethnicity. At some point in the future we plan to have children. Assuming that these children receive souls, what ethnicity/nationality of soul will they receive? English, Jewish, Austrian, Czech, Dutch, Han or Generic Chinese?

 

[zeusbheld]

Related to this, but a little off topic, I have a question.

I was born in England, the son of an Austrian Ashkenazi Jew of Czech Jewish ancestry and an English Jew with part English and part Dutch Ashkenazi heritage, whilst my fiancé is Chinese, of the Han ethnicity. At some point in the future we plan to have children. Assuming that these children receive souls, what ethnicity/nationality of soul will they receive? English, Jewish, Austrian, Czech, Dutch, Han or Generic Chinese?

being an American of Polish/Slovak/English descent who is currently living in Thailand and dating a Thai girl of Han Chinese descent, i'd be curious too. are these mixes just so complex that we should avoid having children, for lack of availability of appropriate psychons? my future depends on the answer.

 

[Klimax]

Related to this, but a little off topic, I have a question.

I was born in England, the son of an Austrian Ashkenazi Jew of Czech Jewish ancestry and an English Jew with part English and part Dutch Ashkenazi heritage, whilst my fiancé is Chinese, of the Han ethnicity. At some point in the future we plan to have children. Assuming that these children receive souls, what ethnicity/nationality of soul will they receive? English, Jewish, Austrian, Czech, Dutch, Han or Generic Chinese?

My vote goes for Czech.I guess we!ve got more souls to offer!
(And I am biased,given czech soul...pure nice soul...)

 

[quarky]

holy cow!

is it possible Obama is souless?

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Okay, is there something I'm missing with the whole thetan thing? I thought I already knew the whole crazy story a la "Trapped in the Closet" from South Park. Please share the even greater "TRVTH" - I'm ready to have my mind blown

Can't point to a reference right now but when you get to OT VII you learn that you are not just surrounded by Thetans, you are actually composed of them.

PS. I am prepared to find the reference if you insist but it will cost you $10,000 which I assure is much less than what the "church" will collect from you to acquire this insightful "knowledge".

 

[calebprime]

Apparently the world's population is now over 6.65 billion. I suppose this could bring a new meaning to the word "soulmate". Each soul is in fact spread between 900 people.

Wogoga, you have ignored a rather important question I asked you:

Cuddles: Define "species". Are the Japanese now a separate species?


You keep refering to the number of available human souls and keep going on about how souls are specific to species. However, all your "analysis" focuses on individual countries, and appears to consider them all completely separate. Which is it? Are there a certain number of human souls which can be used by any human, no matter where they are? Or are souls limited to a particular geographic location, race, or some other subset of the human species?

Could you attempt to answer Cuddles' question?

Also, for me and other simpletons, could you answer (again, if you already have) how you explain that world population is increasing?

Do you really believe that people are being born without souls? If this is possible in your scheme, then how does reincarnation have any effect on population?

 

[zeusbheld]

Do you really believe that people are being born without souls?

i was born without soul. don't make me prove it by attempting to dance...

 

[calebprime]

That almost sounds like I believe in the existence of souls, but you get the idea.

I feel an urge to quote from Band of Gypsies, which I'm going to suppress.

 

[The Gnomon]

As the question of the exitence of a "soul" appears to be without falsifiability, the only valid determination of such existence must be within the experience of the individual her/himself.
No person can determine whether another has a soul. Some may have souls, and some not. The only defensible statement I can make is that I have no experience supporting the idea that I have a soul. I am "soul-negative."
You may be "soul-positive." I have no way of knowing. That's your determination, in which my participation has absolutely no role.

 

[quarky]

Could you attempt to answer Cuddles' question?

Also, for me and other simpletons, could you answer (again, if you already have) how you explain that world population is increasing?

Do you really believe that people are being born without souls? If this is possible in your scheme, then how does reincarnation have any effect on population?

greetings, calebprime.
I was thinking about you because of some weird music idea i was having.
Will you please start a new music thread?

back on topic;

It might be usefull to think of 'souls' as having a certain mass; and comprised of conglomeration.

two pigs gets a retard; 3 pigs equals an Einstien, etc.
no inherrent morality; no anthro-pomorphic chauvanism.

the smallest soul units would be bacterial; maybe viral; perhaps prion.

at any rate,

it would take several bucket-loads of bacterium to equal a human being.

(I hope we can agree on that)

 

[bruto]

I'm still confused about the localization of psychons. How do these psychons know what country to inhabit? Are they physical? Are they sentient in and of themselves? Some cults are of the opinion that souls choose their recipients. Are they right? If so, why can they not move from country to country as necessary? If that is so, wouldn't the soul distribution be unrelated to nationality or ethnicity? If not, how are they distributed, and what keeps them over land? Every once in a while someone is born at sea, and one suspects more than that are conceived at sea. Are these people without souls? If not, where did they get them? Or might there be a dense and untapped sea of souls over the oceans, waiting for roving mariner bands to tap into their reservoir? Is there money to be made, perhaps, in Japan-based cruises to allow infertile Japanese couples to harvest wild souls from the Pacific?