Lancet-1 study vindicated by NEJM/WHO study?

You continue to obstinately hide from the obvious. According to multiple sources the Lancet 1 researchers made a public estimate that there were 57,600 violent deaths for all of Iraq excluding Anbar. Since Lancet 1 said that about 98,000 died in all of Iraq, that means they must have concluded that about 40,400 died in Anbar (i.e., 98,000 - 57,600). Now the population of Anbar is about 1.2 million compared to a population for the rest of Iraq of about 25.8 million. That means the death rate in Anbar was about 1 per 30 persons while the death rate in the rest of the country was 1 per 448 persons. That means they concluded in their final results that the death rate in Anbar was 448/30 = 15 times higher. So you are wrong again. Figure 2 does indeed appear to reflect the final results. So I ask again, since the Lancet 1 researchers threw out their Falluja data point, how did they come to the conclusion that the death rate in Anbar was 10 (to 15) times higher than in the rest of the country. I'll tell you. They guessed based on their own personal bias against the war, Bush and the military.

I had to dig around, but found the 57,600 figure here.

From the "Excess death by Cause" chart on that link:

Chronic Diseases 3,600
Infectious Diseases 10,000
Accidents 24,000
Violence 57,600

Total for these figures is 95,200 deaths excluding Anbar province. If it is assumed that Anbar province actually had the same death rate as the rest of Iraq, this gives a figure of 98,000 excess deaths of all causes for the entire country.

The 57,600 figure was only excess deaths due to violence. Excess deaths due to other causes are responsible for the difference.
 
Total for these figures is 95,200 deaths excluding Anbar province. If it is assumed that Anbar province actually had the same death rate as the rest of Iraq, this gives a figure of 98,000 excess deaths of all causes for the entire country. The 57,600 figure was only excess deaths due to violence. Excess deaths due to other causes are responsible for the difference.

Ok, that looks to me like the real explanation for Lancet's 1 data. I stand corrected. They didn't guess, they just used the same mortality rate in Anbar as they computed for the rest of the country. But NEJM must have used a higher mortality rate in Anbar than elsewhere since it actually used Anbar data in its results. So, once again, the claim that a higher mortality rate in Anbar in the Lancet study than in the NEJM study is why the Lancet study shows much higher numbers of violent deaths does not work. It's inescapable folks ... the Lancet study results are bogus. And the only way that NEJM was able to get number even fractionally close to the Lancet 1 numbers was to nearly halve the pre-war mortality estimate (into a number that is patently ridiculous) and add mortality due to unintentional deaths into what they term violent deaths. :D
 
To convince us they aren't frauds, tell us how the less violent portions of the country managed to generate 23,000 bodies per month as required by the Lancet 2 study results. Tell us why no one noticed that slaughter. Tell us why the insurgents and al-Qaeda didn't tell the press about it either?

:confused: Do you really think they care about making sure you know about what's going on? Al-Qaeda is only one player in this shambles.

Apart from that, you made the claim, you prove it. All you have so far are suppositions.
 
Do you really think they care about making sure you know about what's going on? Al-Qaeda is only one player in this shambles.

Do you really think that al-Qaeda or any "player" in this "shamble" doesn't use the media as best it can for it's own purposes? Surely you will acknowledge that if it were provable that 20,000+ Iraqis were being violently killed every month in Iraq in mid 2006, that would have placed incredible pressure on the administration to end our involvement. That news would have been of monumental propaganda value to those who wanted us out of the country and you can be certain that news organizations around the world would have gladly carried that proof. Yet there is NOTHING in the press in the way of credible first hand accounts, photos, mass graves or any other hard evidence to suggest a slaughter of that magnitude was occurring. NOTHING. The fact that you can't even acknowledge this, in my opinion, greatly reduces your side's credibility in this whole matter. It proves you have no interest in the facts.
 
You continue to obstinately hide from the obvious. According to multiple sources the Lancet 1 researchers made a public estimate that there were 57,600 violent deaths for all of Iraq excluding Anbar. Since Lancet 1 said that about 98,000 died in all of Iraq, that means they must have concluded that about 40,400 died in Anbar (i.e., 98,000 - 57,600).

I'm struggling to believe that this is an honest misunderstanding. 57,600 violent deaths -- the rest were non-violent deaths above and beyond the rate of death before the invasion. Accidents and disease.

They do not claim all those deaths happened in Anbar.

But we want to compare apples and apples. The Lancet 1 study said that 59 percent of the deaths were violent.

See, the above doesn't seem like an honest mistake.
You know that the other 40,000 aren't violent deaths in Anbar. They're the non-violent deaths.

As for what to compare....
I find it interesting that the overall numbers are similar. Where the two studies differ is in the ratio of violent deaths. I said this right from the start.

Actually, *I'm* not saying that. I just did a quick calculation that suggested NEJM was saying that. But let me do the calculation more carefully using the data in Table 2. It says that for the (about) 39 months after the invasion, the survey recorded 1121 deaths in the surveyed population. Of that total 157 were due to intentional injuries or armed conflict. That's where I got the 14% of the total: 157/1121. But I admit that 1121 and 157 are not excess deaths.

So the question becomes how to calculate the pre-war deaths that should be subtracted from these two quantities. According to Table 2, the survey found that 204 died in the (about) 15 months before the invasion. So in 39 months, the same pre-war rate would have yielded 2.6 times more deaths ... or 530 deaths. And there would have been about 16 violent deaths in that same period based only on the pre-war survey numbers multiplied by 2.6. So now we can recompute the percentage.

(157-16)/(1121-530) = 24%. Which splits the difference between what you and I were claiming the percentage was for violent deaths. Fair enough? That's still far different from the 59% claimed in Lancet 1 and the over 90% claimed in Lancet 2. Right? :D

I'll accept it.

In which case the discrepancy between the NEJM results and the John Hopkins studies is even larger than it seems. If road accidents and unintentional injury deaths had been included in the violent death category, then the percentage of violent deaths claimed by the Lancet studies would have been even higher than the 59% and 91.8% claimed in the two Lancet studies. Or if you eliminate the non-intentional deaths from the NEJM violent results, you get a result that is even closer to what Iraq Body Count and others have been saying. I rest my case. :D


Except that here is an interview with Richard Garfield, one of the authors of Lancet-1:
http://www.epic-usa.org/Default.aspx?tabid=440

This table lists the deaths as:
http://www.epic-usa.org/Portals/1/10Excess_Death_by_Cause_400w_300w.jpg

57,600 violent
24,000 accidents
etc

As far as houses where someone was home refusing to participate? Yes, that appears to be the case but then I would expect that, given that tensions in Iraq at the time the NEJM study was done were probably less than during the Lancet 2 visits.

NYtimes: The surveyors largely conducted their work in August and September 2006.

Lancet-2 was May-July 2006.

Sigh. As already pointed out to you, the NEJM percentage is based on multiple visits to the same location. If the occupants weren't home the first time, they tried again and again. The likelihood that 99.1% of residences would have adults home during a single randomly timed visit with no warning is in itself quite suspicious. No other survey in any country at any time on any subject has had this success. The claim by John Hopkins that 92 percent of those who claimed deaths were able to find and show death certificates at the very end of their interview (in a matter of a few minutes, in other words) is also suspicious.

I don't think so.
I would think that home is the safest place to be in Iraq. And how long does it take to find a death certificate?

But I'm not really hear to challenge NEJM's number. I could actually accept the possibility that 100,000 may have died during that period in Iraq.

151,000 from violence.

issue is whether the Lancet 1 and Lancet 2 reports say the same thing as NEJM (they don't) and whether you folks will ever come to acknowledge that the Lancet studies were bogus from the start.

I've not suggested that they say the same thing.
I've suggested there are similarities.

Both NEJM and Lancet-1 estimate about 100,000 excess deaths for that period after the invasion.

And, as I said in post 3,
The only thing that's inconsistent is the proportion of violent to non-violent deaths. The estimate of total excess deaths is very consistent between Lancet-1 and NEJM/WHO. I can't call that coincidence.
 
I had to dig around, but found the 57,600 figure here.

From the "Excess death by Cause" chart on that link:



Total for these figures is 95,200 deaths excluding Anbar province. If it is assumed that Anbar province actually had the same death rate as the rest of Iraq, this gives a figure of 98,000 excess deaths of all causes for the entire country.

The 57,600 figure was only excess deaths due to violence. Excess deaths due to other causes are responsible for the difference.


I find the comparison of US military deaths in this war and occupation to other wars very interesting too.

48 deaths per 10,000 US soldiers per year.
40 deaths per 10,000 other coaltion soldiers per year.
(In the occupation upto Nov 2004)

68 deaths per 10,000 soldiers per year in the fighting of WW2.
 
Do you really think that al-Qaeda or any "player" in this "shamble" doesn't use the media as best it can for it's own purposes? Surely you will acknowledge that if it were provable that 20,000+ Iraqis were being violently killed every month in Iraq in mid 2006, that would have placed incredible pressure on the administration to end our involvement. That news would have been of monumental propaganda value to those who wanted us out of the country and you can be certain that news organizations around the world would have gladly carried that proof. Yet there is NOTHING in the press in the way of credible first hand accounts, photos, mass graves or any other hard evidence to suggest a slaughter of that magnitude was occurring. NOTHING. The fact that you can't even acknowledge this, in my opinion, greatly reduces your side's credibility in this whole matter. It proves you have no interest in the facts.

Given that most of the press corp is embedded or doesn't dare stray out beyond the green zone, I don't think you can expect anything from the press.

It's your claim it's a fraud. You make the case other than by supposition. These surveys have actually gone out in the field, to the towns, to the people, and asked the questions.
 
I find the comparison of US military deaths in this war and occupation to other wars very interesting too.

48 deaths per 10,000 US soldiers per year.
40 deaths per 10,000 other coaltion soldiers per year.
(In the occupation upto Nov 2004)

68 deaths per 10,000 soldiers per year in the fighting of WW2.

Body armour these days is highly effective at saving lives.
 
68 deaths per 10,000 soldiers per year in the fighting of WW2.
The US would have had to deploy nearly 15 million troops to the theater of operation (all year, every year) for this to be accurate. In other words, can't possibly be true.

Thank you for confirming that the author of that study is cooking the numbers to fit his agenda.
 
I'm struggling to believe that this is an honest misunderstanding.

Should I take offense? :)

I did not know before Kestrel linked this source (http://www.epic-usa.org/Default.aspx?tabid=440 ) what comprised the rest of the 98,000 deaths. I hadn't seen that source. I'd only seen mention of the fact that Garfield said 57,600 of the 98,000 deaths were violent deaths outside of Anbar. I simply tried to fill in the blanks and apparently didn't do it right, as it turned out. I didn't think the problem out clearly before responding. My bad. :(

But Kestrel, I think, found the correct explanation. And I noted that he did right away. But his explanation doesn't help you, FireGarden. Your claim for why the Lancet 1 study found more violent deaths than NEJM ... namely; that Lancet 1 included Anbar in their study and NEJM didn't (neither of which is true by the way) and NEJM only used IBC data for Anbar (which isn't true by the way) does not work. Period.

The explanation Kestrel found seems to prove that Lancet 1 assumed the same rates of death (both non-violent and violent) for Anbar as were determined for the rest of the country in order to produce their final 98,000 death estimate. So NEJM had to have calculated more violent deaths in Anbar because we both agree that Anbar was probably more violent than most other regions and NEJM did include Anbar data points in their final estimate of violent deaths.

I find it interesting that the overall numbers are similar. Where the two studies differ is in the ratio of violent deaths.

And you don't think that difference is important? Well I do because I can't see how the Lancet 2 sample population could have HONESTLY made the mistake of calling non-violent deaths violent ones. Remember, Lancet 2 claimed 655,000 deaths in the March 03 to June 06 timeframe of which they claimed 601,000 were due to INTENTIONAL violence. They were very clear on that. NEJM only claimed that 151,000 violent death occurred in that timeframe .... ONE-FOURTH what Lancet 2 claimed.

Furthermore, we now find NEJM appears to have mis-categorized unintentional injury and car accident deaths as violent deaths. If one extracts the data for those two from their results, one finds that they actually only estimated about 62,000 * 1.5 (their undercounting modifier) = 93,000 violent deaths in the timeframe. That's less than ONE-SIXTH the number claimed by Lancet 2.

And Lancet 1 is not much better. It claimed there were 57,600 deaths outside of Anbar over an 18 month period. And using the same ratio for violent to non-violent inside Anbar as they determined to be the case outside Anbar, we can compute that they estimated 2905 violent deaths in Anbar ... making the total about 60500 violent deaths over a period of 18 months. Now in comparison, NEJM found about 100,000 violent deaths (adjusting it for their mistake classifying unintentional injuries as violence) over a period of about 39 months. Assuming the death rate remained constant throughout the NEJM study, that would mean 46,000 died in the first 18 months. That doesn't look too bad. But remember, the same authors were involved in the Lancet 2 study and said the Lancet 2 study was a better study. And the Lancet 2 study said that the excess violent death rate steadily increased after the war ... from a rate of about 3.2/1000/year in Mar 03 to a rate of 6.6/1000/year in May 04 to a rate of 12/1000/year in June 05 with an average rate of 7.2/1000/year. That works out to an averate violent death rate over the first 18 month period of about 4.3/1000/year which is only 60% of the overall average rate. Thus, I think the equivalent NEJM number of violent deaths for the 18 month period is 46,000 * .6 = 27,600 ... which is less than half of what the Lancet 1 investigators found in their study. And one more thing, keep in mind that the NEJM estimate still depends on their use of a pre-war mortality rate of 3/1000/year ... which is highly suspect. If the real rate were even a little higher, that might make the discrepancy to the Lancet 1 results (which used a pre-war mortality rate of 5/1000/year) much greater. So I remain convinced that there was something seriously wrong with the Lancet 1 study ... either people lied to the researchers and the researchers missed that ... or the researchers manipulated their results. Where at the death certificates, FireGarden?

Quote:
As far as houses where someone was home refusing to participate? Yes, that appears to be the case but then I would expect that, given that tensions in Iraq at the time the NEJM study was done were probably less than during the Lancet 2 visits.

NYtimes: The surveyors largely conducted their work in August and September 2006.

Lancet-2 was May-July 2006.

Ok, then scratch my initial reasoning. My fallback position is that the difference in refusal to participate is VERY small and probably within the uncertainty bounds for that particular quantity.

And how long does it take to find a death certificate?

I'm sure Iraqis, just like Americans, can put their hands on them in just a few minutes if asked. ;) And why didn't the LATimes find any evidence of those death certificates?

151,000 from violence.

No, correcting for their misclassification of unintentional injuries as being the result of violence, 100,000.

Both NEJM and Lancet-1 estimate about 100,000 excess deaths for that period after the invasion.

Not true. Lancet 1 said there were 98,000 excess deaths in the first 18 months after the beginning of the war. NEJM said there were about 600,000 in roughly 39, with the mortality rate roughly constant over that time. 18/39 * 600,000 = 276,000 dead.

The estimate of total excess deaths is very consistent between Lancet-1 and NEJM/WHO. I can't call that coincidence.

I just call it plain false.
 
Given that most of the press corp is embedded or doesn't dare stray out beyond the green zone, I don't think you can expect anything from the press.

Although I think you way overstate the actual reality, how do you explain the fact that folks like Dahr Jamail, an independent *journalist* who works from Iraq and is in the community (not behind the Green zone) never even hinted on his website of this mass slaughter you claim. He's highly unfriendly to the US and would love to see us gone from Iraq.

And how do you explain that neither the insurgents or al-Qaeda have sent any films of this mass slaughter to news sources ... particularly arab news sources ... which would love to see us out of Iraq? We KNOW that they have cameras. We KNOW they talk to the media ... especially arab media. We KNOW they aren't hiding behind the Green Zone. Like I said, the fact that you refuse to see the obvious tells me that you aren't interested in the truth.
 
Although I think you way overstate the actual reality, how do you explain the fact that folks like Dahr Jamail, an independent *journalist* who works from Iraq and is in the community (not behind the Green zone) never even hinted on his website of this mass slaughter you claim. He's highly unfriendly to the US and would love to see us gone from Iraq.

I don't have to explain it. Given you and I both have no idea, why don't we just admit we'll have to leave it to those who did go there and did do a survey. That makes, IIRC, three completely independent surveys, using well tried and tested methodology, who come up with roughly the same death rate.

And how do you explain that neither the insurgents or al-Qaeda have sent any films of this mass slaughter to news sources ... particularly arab news sources ... which would love to see us out of Iraq? We KNOW that they have cameras. We KNOW they talk to the media ... especially arab media. We KNOW they aren't hiding behind the Green Zone. Like I said, the fact that you refuse to see the obvious tells me that you aren't interested in the truth.

I'm just going on the evidence, rather than seeing how much idle speculation I can come up with.
 
how do you explain the fact that folks like Dahr Jamail, an independent *journalist* who works from Iraq and is in the community (not behind the Green zone) never even hinted on his website of this mass slaughter you claim. He's highly unfriendly to the US and would love to see us gone from Iraq.

I don't have to explain it.

You most certainly do have to explain it ... if you wish to retain any credibility in this matter. Dahr Jamail is highly unfriendly to the war and our presence in Iraq. He has shown no qualms about using any incident or rumor he could find as a club against the war and the coalition presence in Iraq. He's a very prolific writer and speaker in that regard (just do a web search). Because of his background and leanings, he's been able to travel throughout Iraq ... even into areas that are very unfriendly to coalition forces. He has two eyes. And he even has a camera.

Here are just two examples of his prodigious work:

http://www.haymarketbooks.org/Merch...PROD&Store_Code=Haymarket&Product_Code=UHPBGZ "Beyond the Green Zone: Dispatches From an Unembedded Journalist in Occupied Iraq by Dahr Jamail"

http://www.thefilmconnection.org/films/342 "Eyewitness in Iraq: Dahr Jamail, an Unembedded Report"

With all of that, he didn't once describe eyewitness accounts or provide photographic evidence of the mass slaughter that the John Hopkins researchers claim occurred.

That makes, IIRC, three completely independent surveys, using well tried and tested methodology, who come up with roughly the same death rate.

I think I've adequately proven there is absolutely NO correspondence between the violent death estimates of the John Hopkins (Lancet) studies and the NEJM study. That being the case, they don't come up with roughly the same death rate. There is no escaping the conclusion that in one case or the other, someone either lied to the researchers or the researchers manipulated the results. And perhaps in both cases. That your side in this debate can't acknowledge this is quite telling.
 
The US would have had to deploy nearly 15 million troops to the theater of operation (all year, every year) for this to be accurate. In other words, can't possibly be true.

Thank you for confirming that the author of that study is cooking the numbers to fit his agenda.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Casualties_by_branch_of_service

Number served:
11,260,000 army
4,183,446 navy


If you want to look at it another way:
wiki says 2.8% of American soldiers (army) died in ww2
That 280 per 10,000 over about 4 years
or about 70 per 10,000 per year

The navy numbers are lower, the marine numbers higher.
In any case, the rough method above gets close to the number in the article, so I accept 68 per 10,000 per year.
 
Should I take offense? :)

I did not know before Kestrel linked this source (http://www.epic-usa.org/Default.aspx?tabid=440 ) what comprised the rest of the 98,000 deaths. I hadn't seen that source. I'd only seen mention of the fact that Garfield said 57,600 of the 98,000 deaths were violent deaths outside of Anbar. I simply tried to fill in the blanks and apparently didn't do it right, as it turned out. I didn't think the problem out clearly before responding. My bad. :(

Fair enough.
I must have misunderstood some of your other comments.

But Kestrel, I think, found the correct explanation. And I noted that he did right away. But his explanation doesn't help you, FireGarden. Your claim for why the Lancet 1 study found more violent deaths than NEJM ... namely; that Lancet 1 included Anbar in their study and NEJM didn't (neither of which is true by the way) and NEJM only used IBC data for Anbar (which isn't true by the way) does not work. Period.

Not "only" used. They used IBC data. Can you tell me what their results would be without the use of IBC data?

The explanation Kestrel found seems to prove that Lancet 1 assumed the same rates of death (both non-violent and violent) for Anbar as were determined for the rest of the country in order to produce their final 98,000 death estimate. So NEJM had to have calculated more violent deaths in Anbar because we both agree that Anbar was probably more violent than most other regions and NEJM did include Anbar data points in their final estimate of violent deaths.

Along with some input from IBC. The exact nature of that input is not known to me -- in the sense that I don't know what the NEJM results would be without the use of IBC.

And you don't think that difference is important?

Yes, I think it's very important.
And I'd much rather discuss that than your theories of fraud.

When someone comes up with what the NEJM numbers would look like without IBC help, then this conversation can move on to something new. Not that I'm accusing NEJM of anything. I'm sure they did what they did because they thought it was statistically useful -- they're experts in their field. I just don't follow what they did well enough.
 
You want to make comparisons with World War 2, FireGarden? Sure thing.

The Lancet 2 researchers claim that about 601,000 Iraqis died as a result of intentional (i.e., violent) causes (i.e., the result of murder or armed conflict) in the first 39 months of the Iraq war. The majority of those deaths were said by the researchers to be due to "gunfire".

Now let's compare that to our strategic bombing campaigns in WW2.

First, let's look at Germany. http://www.anesi.com/ussbs02.htm#tc is the "The United States Strategic Bombing Survey Summary Report". It states that official German statistics place total casualties (dead) from air attack at about 250,000 for the period from Jan 1, 1943 to Jan 31, 1945. It states that "a careful examination of these data, together with checks against the records of individual cities that were attacked" indicates that number is too low. It states a revised estimate of the minimum is 305,000 over the entire period of the war. Numerous other estimates have been made by various authors over the years. They range from 300,000 to 600,000 dead. In short, all of them are equal to or less than the number that Lancet 2 researchers claimed died violently in Iraq in just the first 39 months of that war.

To kill that many people, the allies dropped 3 million TONS of explosives on German targets with little or no concern for German civilian casualties. For example, British bombers deliberately attacked Hamburg, Germany creating a firestorm over nine squares miles of city in which temperatures of 1800 F killed 40,000 people. This is what Hamburg looked like after the 1943 bombing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hamburg_after_the_1943_bombing.jpg

And Hamburg wasn't the only city devastated by strategic bombing. This is what Dresden looked like during and after it's bombing:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Dresden_Aerial_View_-_February_13_14_1945.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9a/Dresd_4.jpg

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II, the Dresden bombing "created a firestorm with temperatures peaking at over 1500°C (2700°F). ... snip ... A Dresden police report written shortly after the attacks stated that the old town and the inner eastern suburbs had been engulfed in a single fire which had destroyed almost 12,000 dwellings including residential barracks. The report also said that the raid had destroyed "24 banks; 26 insurance buildings; 31 stores and retail houses; 6470 shops; 640 warehouses; 256 market halls; 31 large hotels; 26 public houses; 63 administrative buildings; 3 theatres; 18 cinemas; 11 churches; 60 chapels; 50 cultural-historical buildings; 19 hospitals including auxiliary, overflow hospitals, and private clinics; 39 schools; 5 consulates; 1 zoological garden; 1 waterworks, 1 railway facility; 19 postal facilities; 4 tram facilities; 19 ships and barges. The report also mentioned that the Wehrmacht's main command post in the Tauschenberg Palace, 19 military hospitals and a number of less significant military facilities were destroyed. ... snip ... British assessments ... concluded that 23 percent of the city’s industrial buildings were seriously damaged and that 56 per cent of the non-industrial buildings (exclusive of dwellings) had been heavily damaged. Of the total number of dwelling units in the city proper, 78,000 were regarded as demolished, 27,700 temporarily uninhabitable but ultimately repairable, and 64,500 readily repairable from minor damage. This later assessment indicated that 80 per cent of the city’s housing units had undergone some degree of damage and that 50 per cent of the dwellings had been demolished or seriously damaged."

City after city in Germany received this treatment. About the only ones that weren't leveled were a couple (like Heidelburg) that the allies wanted to use as after the war. You starting to get the picture? Lancet researchers are claiming that the above wholesale destruction killed fewer people than the number who died in Iraq, mostly from gunfire, in a shorter time period. Does that make any sense to you?

Likewise, the number of dead from allied bombing of Japan is estimated by various groups to be between 330,000 and 500,000. The first number is the US Strategic Bombing Survey's reported minimum. Again, the number killed is about the same as the number that Lancet 2 claims for Iraq. But to kill that many, the allies again had to level virtually every major city. This is what Tokyo looked like during one of several firebombing raids on it alone

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Firebombing_of_Tokyo.jpg

In one raid, 334 B-29s dropped 1700 tons of bombs and destroyed 16 square miles of the city, killing 100,000 people in the resulting firestorm. This website (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_World_War_II ) has a table listing the percent of the area "destroyed" by strategic bombing in 69 cities in Japan. The average percentage destroyed I calculate to be 49%. This is what the typical Japanese city looked like after the war:

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/Hansell/img/p236a.jpg

http://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/trs/images/osaka-damage3b39707r.jpg

You starting to get the picture? Lancet researchers claim that far more people died by gunfire in Iraq in 39 months than in Japan by that type of destruction over about the same length of time. Does that make any sense to you?

Where are the photos of the massacre in Iraq?

Where the videos?

Where are the bodies?

Where are the death certificates?

Where is destruction of infrastructure even remotely similar to what you see above?
 
Can you tell me what their results would be without the use of IBC data?

Lower than they were. Which demolishes your claim that the reason the Lancet 1 study found more violent deaths than NEJM is that Lancet 1 included more Anbar data in their study than NEJM.

Along with some input from IBC. The exact nature of that input is not known to me

Again, I clearly summarized the nature of that input earlier and pointed you to NEJM's 10 page report where they specifically talk about their use of IBC data. Why you are still in the dark, given the availability of that information, is curious.

Quote:
And you don't think that difference is important?

Yes, I think it's very important.

Then why did you claim the two groups of studies got basically the same results? They did not in the most important of ways. They weren't even close.

When someone comes up with what the NEJM numbers would look like without IBC help

They would be even lower and even more out of wack with Lancet's estimates. That should be enough information to let you "move on" in this conversation. But ...

I'm sure they did what they did because they thought it was statistically useful -- they're experts in their field. I just don't follow what they did well enough."

It's not all that complicated. Here's the explanation in their report: "Of the 1086 originally selected clusters, 115 (10.6%) were not visited because of problems with security. These clusters were located in Anbar (61.7% of the unvisited clusters), Baghdad (26.9%), Ninevah (10.4%), and Wasit (0.8%). Since past mortality is likely to be higher in these clusters than in those that were visited during the IFHS, we imputed mortality figures for the missing clusters in Anbar and Baghdad with the use of information from the Iraq Body Count on the distribution of deaths among provinces to estimate the ratio of deaths in these areas to those in other provinces with high death rates. Data from the Iraq Body Count were used to compute ratios for death rates in Anbar and Baghdad, as compared with the three provinces that contributed more than 4% each to the total number of deaths reported for the period from March 2003 through June 2006. For instance, we compared the ratio of the rate of death in Baghdad relative to the rate in three high-mortality provinces reported by the Iraq Body Count (3.08) with the rate ratio reported by the IFHS for the same provinces (1.56). To obtain the same ratio, overall mortality in Baghdad would need to have been 1.97 times as high as that in the three other provinces on the basis of the visited clusters only. This corresponds to a rate of death in the missing clusters that is 4.0 times as high as that in the visited clusters; the corresponding numbers for Anbar were 1.43 and 1.70, respectively (Table 1 of the Supplementary Appendix)."

So here is what they did. They used the IBC database to find the ratio of death rate between Baghdad (which they didn't fully sample) and the three most violent provinces in Iraq that they did fully sample. Doing this, they found that the overall mortality rate in Baghdad was 1.97 times higher than the overall mortality rate in the three other provinces. Next, they used the data they actually gathered during their survey. They computed the overall mortality rate of those three most violent provinces and then compared it to the computed overall mortality rate they got for Baghdad from their survey ... with the mortality rate of the clusters they didn't sample in Baghdad as an unknown variable. They then solved for that variable (mortality rate) such that the Baghdad mortality rate would be 1.97 times higher than the mortality rate of the other three fully sampled provinces. This told them that the mortality rate in the missing Baghdad clusters had to be 4 times (on average) that of the mortality rate in the 3 most violent visited provinces. They then had everything they needed to compute a mortality rate for the missing Baghdad clusters. They simply multiplied the mortality rate of the 3 visited clusters by 4.0 and used that as the rate for the missing Baghdad clusters.

They used the same approach for Anbar. Only in this case, they found that the mortality rate of Anbar province overall had to be 1.43 times that of the 3 most violent visited provinces and that the mortality rate of the non-visited clusters in Anbar had to be 1.7 times that of the 3 most violent visited provinces. That rate compares to Lancet 1's use of the overall average mortality rate outside Anbar as the rate used in Anbar. Since that would undoubtedly be lower than that of the 3 most violent clusters that were actually sampled, one can conclude that NEJM's estimate for mortality in Anbar is methodologically AT LEAST 1.7 times higher than Lancet 1's estimate was for Anbar. Use the same methodology as was used in the Lancet 1 study and NEJM estimate of deaths during the period in question would drop, making the comparison with Lancet results even worse.
 
City after city in Germany received this treatment. About the only ones that weren't leveled were a couple (like Heidelburg) that the allies wanted to use as after the war. You starting to get the picture? Lancet researchers are claiming that the above wholesale destruction killed fewer people than the number who died in Iraq, mostly from gunfire, in a shorter time period. Does that make any sense to you?

Most of the violence in Iraq is ethnic cleansing, not strategic bombing. During WW2, millions of people died in an ethnic cleansing campaign. They were not killed by bombs falling from above, most were simply taken away and murdered. If your only source of information was newspaper accounts printed at the time, you would not know that it was happening.
 
Most of whom never left the US. Unless you think the WWII US Navy, for example, had over 4,000 ships carrying 1,000 sailors each. :rolleyes:

And today there are nearly 3 million serving in all branches. But the lying liar who did the Lancet study only counts those actually in Iraq. Using the same methodology he used for WWII gets you ~3.3 deaths per 10,000 per year. 1/20th the number for WWII.

Of course, 3.3 per 10,000 doesn't sound so bad so he fudged the numbers. I wonder what other numbers he fudged for the Lancet study?
 
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