• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

McCain Carries Florida

All the Paulbots where gloating about how he beat Giuliani but as soon as Giuliani campaigned Paul gets smashed.

As far as I can tell this pretty much secures McCain as the eventual nominee doesn't it? He's got a lot of momentum going forward at least.
 
NeoRicen said:
All the Paulbots where gloating about how he beat Giuliani but as soon as Giuliani campaigned Paul gets smashed.

As far as I can tell this pretty much secures McCain as the eventual nominee doesn't it? He's got a lot of momentum going forward at least.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. Super Tuesday could turn it all around. Over 20 states are going to be holding their primaries on the same day and, if Romney can scratch out a lead, he could easily come back.
 
NeoRicen said:
As far as I can tell this pretty much secures McCain as the eventual nominee doesn't it? He's got a lot of momentum going forward at least.
Click to expand...

The prediction market seems to think so.
http://www.intrade.com/

As of this posting he's up above 80 whereas he closed at 59 yesterday.
Romney's down to 15 from 29.
Everyone else seems to be essentially out as far as people willing to bet money.

ETA: Also, McCain won in a Rupublicans-only primary (no independents allowed).
 
Last edited:
HereticHulk said:
Ron Paul wins the Presidency! A decisive victory!

Fixed it for ya!
Click to expand...

That's great! I like the way you took something silly like "Paul wins Florida" and made it even more ludicrous! Can I play too?

Ron Paul wins Grand Wizardry! A decisive victory!
 
Spindrift said:
That's great! I like the way you took something silly like "Paul wins Florida" and made it even more ludicrous! Can I play too?

Ron Paul wins Grand Wizardry! A decisive victory!
Click to expand...
This just in: In a stunning upset, Ron Paul has usurped the title of "Biggest Douchebag in the Universe" from John Edward.
 
Spindrift said:
That's great! I like the way you took something silly like "Paul wins Florida" and made it even more ludicrous! Can I play too?

Ron Paul wins Grand Wizardry! A decisive victory!
Click to expand...

Actually, this one isn't so far-fetched...

Those guys are always hiring new white blood.
 
Puppycow said:
... ETA: Also, McCain won in a Rupublicans-only primary (no independents allowed).
Click to expand...

That may be the most significant piece of data to his credit so far.

(Plus ... for what it's worth ... Giuliani will likely endorse him.)
 
Last edited:
David Freddoso of National Review forecasts a big haul of delegates for McCain on Super Tuesday
It adds up to McCain. [David Freddoso]

In my opinion, the nomination is now his to lose. He now has an estimated 97 delegates (per CNN). Next Tuesday, he'll win New York (101), New Jersey (52), Connecticut (30), and Arizona (53). He'll probably also win Oklahoma (41) and Missouri (58).

These are — off the top of my head — all of the winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday (except Utah). They'll leave McCain with a total of 432 delegates. That's before any of the California delegates, of which he's sure to take several. He'll get some in Illinois and some in the proportional states in the South (where Romney won't do well anyway), and some in the caucus states. My guess is he'll finish Super Tuesday with no fewer than 700 delegates, and perhaps as many as 900.

Romney will probably have about 250 at that point, maybe something like 400 if he does unexpectedly well in the caucus states. The threshold for victory is 1,191.
Click to expand...

But some conservatives aren't happy:
It's All Over [Michael Graham]

Assuming there is no shocking revelation or health issue, the GOP nomination is over. Conservatives need to start practicing the phrase "Nominee presumptive John McCa....."

Sorry, I can't say it. Not yet.

But it's true. When the campaign comes here to Massachusetts on February 5th, I'll proudly cast my vote for any option on the GOP ballot other than You-Know-Who. But it will be a futile gesture. Mr. "1/3rd Of The GOP Primary Vote" is going to be the nominee.

He's going to win the big, left-leaning states on Tuesday. Huckabee will stay in and deny Romney a one-on-one contest for GOP voters that Captain Amnesty would almost certainly lose. The result: More wins for He Who Must Not Be Named, and fewer wins for Romney—regardless of delegate count.
Florida has launched the one ship that Romney's money and Rush Limbaugh cannot stop: The U.S.S. Inevitable. It's gonna happen. Even if there were a realistic pathway to stop him, the media have seized control of the process now and are declaring him inevitable. He is, after all, the favorite son of the New York Times.

So it is over. Finished. In November, we'll be sending out our most liberal, least trustworthy candidate vs. to take on Hillary Clinton—perhaps not more liberal than Barack Obama, but certainly far less trustworthy.
And the worst part for the Right is that McCain will have won the nomination while ignoring, insulting and, as of this weekend, shamelessly lying about conservatives and conservatism.

You think he supported amnesty six months ago? You think he was squishy on tax cuts and judicial nominees before? Wait until he has the power to anger every conservative in America, and feel good about it.

Every day, he dreams of a world filled with happy Democrats and insulted Republicans. And he is, thanks to Florida, the presidential nominee of the Republican party.

And on that note, I'm off to climb into a bottle of Bushmill's. It's going to be a LONG nine months.
Click to expand...

Speaking of which, has anyone heard from New Ager recently?
 
Speaking of which, has anyone heard from New Ager recently?
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm here. I won't run away from my picks.

The one thing I never foresaw was Guiliani's pathetic strategy of giving up the early primaries and counting on Florida and therefore giving McCain his votes and momentum.

Neither candidate even has 100 delegates yet. Still plenty of primaries to go.

Certainly Guiliani dropping out and Huckabee staying in only hurts Romney, but I'm not giving up yet.

Still think in the end Romney will win. One on one, I like Romney's chances.

If not, McCain vs Hillary will be the most boring election in history. The worst Republican against the worst Democrat. Oh my.
 
Last edited:
New Ager said:
Oh, I'm here. I won't run away from my picks.

The one thing I never foresaw was Guiliani's pathetic strategy of giving up the early primaries and counting on Florida and therefore giving McCain his votes and momentum.
Click to expand...
You didn't foresee that Guiliani would do exactly everybody said he was doing?
 
New Ager said:
Oh, I'm here. I won't run away from my picks.

The one thing I never foresaw was Guiliani's pathetic strategy of giving up the early primaries and counting on Florida and therefore giving McCain his votes and momentum.

Neither candidate even has 100 delegates yet. Still plenty of primaries to go.

Certainly Guiliani dropping out and Huckabee staying in only hurts Romney, but I'm not giving up yet.

Still think in the end Romney will win. One on one, I like Romney's chances.

If not, McCain vs Hillary will be the most boring election in history. The worst Republican against the worst Democrat. Oh my.
Click to expand...

Heheh, I'm not running away from my picks either.

Romney can't compete on Super-Duper Tuesday. In New York or New Jersey, where McCain already had the lead and his honor the Mayor (who will endorse McCain tomorrow), and advertising is very expensive? In California where it's not only expensive, but where it's not winner take all?

McCain's the nominee. I won't twit you too hard on the call, because plenty of others made it. But it's over.
 
So will we know by Feb the 6th how the land lies for both candidates?

I am not big on US politics but am kind of hoping for a slightly less trigger happy alternative to the current incumbant. Obama/Hillary/McCain all seem reasonably sane. Guiliani seemed like an OK guy too but his goose appears to be cooked or is it?
 
Kerberos said:
You didn't foresee that Giuliani would do exactly everybody said he was doing?
Click to expand...

Exit polling in Florida suggests that a significant percentage (~20%) of voters chose McCain from the governor's endorsement --- an endorsement that was expected by Giuliani to go his way. Take that 20% from McCain and give it to Rudy and you'll see that Giuliani could easily have come out on top. (Our analysis of his strategy would then be painted a different color, I assure you.) I can't tell you exactly how the Republican primary would have continued from there, but McCain can't count on this happening everywhere, even with Rudy's endorsement. But if it does, I don't think it out-of-line to look back and say that McCain's victories may very well have hinged on the heels of just one man. One man from, of all places, the state of Florida.
 
Nogbad said:
So will we know by Feb the 6th how the land lies for both candidates?

I am not big on US politics but am kind of hoping for a slightly less trigger happy alternative to the current incumbant. Obama/Hillary/McCain all seem reasonably sane. Guiliani seemed like an OK guy too but his goose appears to be cooked or is it?
Click to expand...

One difference this year from years past is that all democratic primaries are proportional representation with a 15% minimum. That means all candidates in a state (or maybe at the district level) that get at least 15% of the vote get some delegates. So if an election is close, the candidates get a similar number of delagates. In New Hampshire, for example, Hillary won, but got an equal number of delegates as Obama. And John Edwards also got a few.

On the Republican side, the states make up their own rules, and most of them award all delegates to the winner. So coming in a close second is worthless.

So its more likely that the Democratic race will still be closer than the Republican race on Feb 6 because the second place finisher will still be getting some delegates.
 
Just thinking said:
Exit polling in Florida suggests that a significant percentage (~20%) of voters chose McCain from the governor's endorsement --- an endorsement that was expected by Giuliani to go his way. Take that 20% from McCain and give it to Rudy and you'll see that Giuliani could easily have come out on top. (Our analysis of his strategy would then be painted a different color, I assure you.) I can't tell you exactly how the Republican primary would have continued from there, but McCain can't count on this happening everywhere, even with Rudy's endorsement. But if it does, I don't think it out-of-line to look back and say that McCain's victories may very well have hinged on the heels of just one man. One man from, of all places, the state of Florida.
Click to expand...

You miss my point. My point wasn't that Gulianis strategy was bad. My point was that New Ager claims to have been suprised by the (well-published) strategy which indicates, to the great suprise of no one, that he hasn't got a clue.
 
Puppycow said:
One difference this year from years past is that all democratic primaries are proportional representation with a 15% minimum. That means all candidates in a state (or maybe at the district level) that get at least 15% of the vote get some delegates. So if an election is close, the candidates get a similar number of delagates. In New Hampshire, for example, Hillary won, but got an equal number of delegates as Obama. And John Edwards also got a few.

On the Republican side, the states make up their own rules, and most of them award all delegates to the winner. So coming in a close second is worthless.

So its more likely that the Democratic race will still be closer than the Republican race on Feb 6 because the second place finisher will still be getting some delegates.
Click to expand...

Ta

I guess that means that the Hillary/Obama thing could go right to the wire. Presumably if Guiliani drops out and supports McCain and the latter does well on the 5th of Feb then he is in a very strong position very early on in the race and can concentrate on actual race.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom