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Evolution Not Random

So what do you have with evolution? You have some random events mixed with selection pressures that determine which of the random events will be selected. The system is not entirely random, nor is it entirely deterministic.

Case closed. ;)

Yeah, and you show that you don't understand the very definitions you listed. If any part of the process is described, by a probability distribution the process is a stochastic process. In other words, unless you can show that same initial conditions (for evolution that would be the phenotype) always yield that same results (for evolution that would be the reproduction of the individual), the process is a stochastic process.
 
My point is that the insistence that evolution be deterministic is a nonsensical knee-jerk reaction to creationists calling it "random". It is therefore based on the same faulty notions as the creationist insistence that evolution cannot happen because science says it is random.

Can you point to anybody whose knee is jerking in such a fashion?

Either they are wrong (if they say what you are claiming they do), or you are misunderstanding what they are claiming (which, given what you've written in this thread, seems possible).
Why are "we" letting the creationists determine how "we" talk about evolution and randomness?
Be plain; do you include yourself in the "we" or not? Do you accept that evolution by natural selection is what takes place or not?
 
Can you point to anybody whose knee is jerking in such a fashion?

articulett

Either they are wrong (if they say what you are claiming they do), or you are misunderstanding what they are claiming (which, given what you've written in this thread, seems possible).

Haven't you noticed that articulett has accused me at least once in this thread of being a creationist because I say that evolution is random?

Be plain; do you include yourself in the "we" or not? Do you accept that evolution by natural selection is what takes place or not?

Yes, I accept evolution by natural selection as a valid and robust scientific theory. That is why I used we. However, I think it is extremely misguided to insist that evolution is non-random because it is biased or constrained as that shows the same ignorance of probability theory as creationists. That is why I put we in quotation marks.
 
Yeah, and you show that you don't understand the very definitions you listed. If any part of the process is described, by a probability distribution the process is a stochastic process. In other words, unless you can show that same initial conditions (for evolution that would be the phenotype) always yield that same results (for evolution that would be the reproduction of the individual), the process is a stochastic process.
For crying out loud, mijo, I understand the definitions, I just don't give a crap about your argument. I'm just trying to bring this discussion into the realm of meaningful dialog. Why don't you take your argument to some forum where people care about whatever points you seem to think are so critical? The discussion here is not about the philosophy of stochastic processes in mathematics. It is a discussion about the concepts of the theory of evolution. And as such, you aren't making your case with anyone. No one here that I can see cares about your math philosophy.

But, be my guest, carry on. No matter that no one gives a **** :rolleyes:
 
Question for those involved in this thread:

Given a certain environment, if we were to repeat the evolutionary history of organisms living within that environment, would the evolutionary outcomes be the same or different?
 
I have to note this is beautiful irony from mijo... because on another thread he argues that a particular analogy confuses "cdesign proponetists"--but on when it comes to random, he doesn't care if it confuses them-- by god, evolution is random and that is that... and he will twist all potential definitions and explanation and rebuff all suggestions that it's misleading to say such a thing ... to conclude again and again. Evolution is random.

Per Mijo's definition evolution IS random. And so are you. So is Poker. So is monopoly. So is whether seat belts save lives. If it has anything to do with probability in any way-- it's random to Mijo. Which is oddly similar to what Behe argues. Ask them to convey how the order or appearance comes from the randomness and they have nothing... because they either don't or won't understand natural selection while imagining themselves experts on describing evolution. It's crazy.

And any thread where anyone dares say "evolution is not random" the same "apologists" jump in the thread to tell everyone-- "oh yes it is." I think it's funny. I like how cyborg teases them. I think they are bizarrely predictable. They don't care about conveying understanding... they care about defining evolution as "random" via whatever methods they can.

And they don't care that they aren't communicating with anyone here or that no one considers them an expert or that they aren't speaking clearly. What they care about is convincing themselves that they are right... so they have to have the last word and they go round and round... it really is like Kleinman... it's just a different tactic. You uses sciency words to say nothing and disparage your opponents without really putting your own description or ideas on the table for scrutiny.

They describe evolution in a way that is useless and confusing... and pretend they are doing it for academic reasons or something --but they are really just doing it to convince themselves that scientists are saying "this all came about randomly". No scientists would say that... it leads the the tornado in the junkyard building a plane analogy --and nothing Mijo or his ilk say are able differentiate their descriptions of evolution from that analogy. Ugh. Maddening obfuscaters. But funny.
 
Question for those involved in this thread:

Given a certain environment, if we were to repeat the evolutionary history of organisms living within that environment, would the evolutionary outcomes be the same or different?

Different. The multiple mutations will not occur at the same time in the two experiments. This fact means that the experiments will have different environments as the creatures within the environment will be different and this will cause different selections for the next mutation.
 
Question for those involved in this thread:

Given a certain environment, if we were to repeat the evolutionary history of organisms living within that environment, would the evolutionary outcomes be the same or different?

It would of course depend upon how identical the environment was. If the sperm just to the left of the one that made Hitler had fertilized the egg instead it would be a different world with different bad guys and different history and different people marrying, being born, dying, inventing things, etc. And all of our histories... the history of all life has eons of those little twists and turns... if every single variable was identical... then it would be identical-- but a hiccup could change the world...
 
It would of course depend upon how identical the environment was. If the sperm just to the left of the one that made Hitler had fertilized the egg instead it would be a different world with different bad guys and different history and different people marrying, being born, dying, inventing things, etc. And all of our histories... the history of all life has eons of those little twists and turns... if every single variable was identical... then it would be identical-- but a hiccup could change the world...

The timing of the mutations being random, the experiment would necessarily be different.
 
For crying out loud, mijo, I understand the definitions, I just don't give a crap about your argument. I'm just trying to bring this discussion into the realm of meaningful dialog. Why don't you take your argument to some forum where people care about whatever points you seem to think are so critical? The discussion here is not about the philosophy of stochastic processes in mathematics. It is a discussion about the concepts of the theory of evolution. And as such, you aren't making your case with anyone. No one here that I can see cares about your math philosophy.

But, be my guest, carry on. No matter that no one gives a **** :rolleyes:

Last time I checked, science was about evidence, and no-one has presented evidence that evolution is a deterministic process. Instead they (especially articulett and now you, skeptigirl), have equivocated and shown their utter ignorance of probability theory in which stochastic processes are rigorously defined.

Does anyone have any evidence the a given collection of phenotypes always reproduces while all others don't?
 
Question for those involved in this thread:

Given a certain environment, if we were to repeat the evolutionary history of organisms living within that environment, would the evolutionary outcomes be the same or different?
I think this would depend on how much pressure specific selection pressures exerted. For example, it does appear that increasing intelligence is a consistent selection pressure. And, it also seems arms and legs or certain kinds of locomotion are consistent. Wide angle vision vs depth perception for predator and prey seems consistent. Faces are relatively consistent.

Now with all those, we have plant, fungi, and microorganisms. They too have some predictable consistencies. So some of the deterministic features of evolution can vary in whole groups. And there may not be a direct line with each selection pressure. Thus the selection pressure for increasing intelligence could suffer a set back depending on certain conditions but those would have some predictability as well.

Once an insect evolves, their exoskeleton limits the size they can evolve into. only two kinds of eyes evolved, compound eyes and regular eyes. There may only be these two options. Eyes will only evolve where there is light and eyes will devolve when light is removed. I am not aware of any organism developing more or less than 2 eyes. Maybe someone else can enlighten us.

Between the groups there are some consistencies. For example, rapidly reproducing organisms rely more on ongoing mutation including active mutation while slowly reproducing organisms rely on variation being already present in the genome when conditions change. Organisms that evolve into overly specialized lifeforms are predictably vulnerable to extinction because they cannot adapt to change.

So there appears to be random and non-random processes at work.
 
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Last time I checked, science was about evidence, and no-one has presented evidence that evolution is a deterministic process. Instead they (especially articulett and now you, skeptigirl), have equivocated and shown their utter ignorance of probability theory in which stochastic processes are rigorously defined.

Does anyone have any evidence the a given collection of phenotypes always reproduces while all others don't?
You are so hung up on your pet idea you don't even get what people are saying to you. If anyone is showing ignorance, I'd say it was you.

What about the concept of mixed random and deterministic processes is so hard for you to grasp? Read my post above. Maybe that will help.
 
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Last time I checked, science was about evidence, and no-one has presented evidence that evolution is a deterministic process. Instead they (especially articulett and now you, skeptigirl), have equivocated and shown their utter ignorance of probability theory in which stochastic processes are rigorously defined.

Does anyone have any evidence the a given collection of phenotypes always reproduces while all others don't?

I have been reading what you are writing and find it interesting. Thanks.
:)
 
You are so hung up on your pet idea you don't even get what people are saying to you. If anyone is showing ignorance, I'd say it was you.

What about the concept of mixed random and deterministic processes is so hard for you to grasp? Read my post above. Maybe that will help.
Because "mixed" processes ended up being either random or determistic.

For example, supposed I have a random number generator and I take the result and multiply by 2. We have a random process followed by a determistic one, but the process taken as whole is random, as knowing the additional state of the system will not allow a predictable outcome.

Supposed in stead of just doubling the number produced, I double the number then add 8, divide the result by 2, and then subtract the original number. If I combined the random number generator and this process I get a determistic result. No matter what number the generator produces, I get 4 out. So this process is determistic.

Both examples are "mixed" by your definition, but one is obviously a random process (identical starting points can yield different results) and the other is obviously determistic even though it has a random sub-process.

Walt
 
(of course what difference does this make if Mijo has his own personal definitions of random and deterministic and his own personal view of what counts for evidence...)
Perhaps mijo, like I, read the paper he linked to and noticed that it doesn't prove what your article says it does. In fact the data is consistent with random evolution.

Walt
 
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Perhaps, in summary, we can say: Evolution could become ever more predictable, the more we understand about the factors that go into it. If we can't track all of the physics, of every aspect, yet; at least we can start by studying patterns in evolutionary convergence.



It's analogous to the weather. The weather could become ever more predictable, the more we understand the factors that go into it. If we can't track all of the physics, of every rain drop, yet; at least we can start by studying common patterns in how weather events form.
 
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It's somewhat embarassing that this topic continues to waste storage space, but the linked article from the OP did give me some insight into why it's such a hot button issue. Actually, the linked article didn't do that, but the journal article to which it referred did do that.

The article studied evolution of vulval traits in a family of nematodes. This choice of species of study thus guaranteed that laymen will continue to make fun of scientists for a long time to come.

From studying variations among similar species in conjunction with developmental biology, they were able to infer patterns of evolution. For example, they were able to infer that in some cases, the vulva of an ancestral nematode was found mid-body, while the vulva of the moder nematode was found posterior.

The interesting question was how did that evolution occur. If one were to follow the movement of vulvae (Sorry if I got that plural wrong. I never studied Latin. It just looks right.) across the generations from mid-body to posterior, would it ever change course. Would it go a little bit back, then more back, and still more back, until it arrived at its final posterior destination? Or would it go a little bit back, and a little bit back, and then reverse direction just a bit, but then resume its rearward trajectory, perhaps reversing course a few times in the process?

This study concluded that the first pattern was the case. Once those nematode vulva started moving backwards, they never reversed course.

They summarized their study thusly:

"In conclusion, our study shows that evolution of vulva
development is strongly biased and only few aspects
are likely to change in an unconstrained stochastic fashion.
Our phylogeny for rhabditid species, including the
model systems C. elegans and P. pacificus, provides a
foundation for evolutionary analyses of other characters
as well. If the patterns that we observed in the vulva
system are found more generally, then most of developmental
system drift is driven by deterministic and not
stochastic processes."

The magazine article from the OP then summarized the summary by saying

"Evolution not random"

Which proves, beyond all doubt, that one sentence summaries of extremely complex explanations are inevitably so oversimplified that they contain almost no information.



The real scientific controversy involved in this paper has nothing to do with whether evolution "is random" or "is deterministic". Both summaries are too simplified to contain any information that is of any use. The real controversy concerned something called "developmental systems drift", and whether or not phenotypical changes occur because species' characteristics wander around in phenotype space in a manner described by a possibly biased drunken walk, until they settle into something quite by accident, but which survives because it happens to work, or do they tend to start in a direction and continue in that direction because going in that direction makes things just a little bit better, until the trait can no longer be further optimized. This paper concludes that DSD usually behaves in the latter manner.

None of which actually means that evolution "is random" or "is not random".
 
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You are so hung up on your pet idea you don't even get what people are saying to you. If anyone is showing ignorance, I'd say it was you.

What about the concept of mixed random and deterministic processes is so hard for you to grasp? Read my post above. Maybe that will help.

There is no such thing as "'mixed' random and deterministic processes". What you are in fact referring to is a deterministic function of a random variable, which, in case you missed it above, is itself a random variable. Maybe you would like to review a mathematical proof of this fact.
 
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