New Hampshire Caucus--Errr, Primary Prediction Contest

[Tsukasa Buddha]

The first voting results are in (very small voting area). These are the official totals of the actual votes:

R:
McCain: 4
Romney: 2
Giuliani 1
Huckabee: 0
Ron Paul: 0
Hunter: 0
Thompson: 0

D:
Obama: 7
Edwards: 2
Richardson: 1
Clinton: 0
Gravel: 0
Kucinich: 0

Of course, this is a very small sample size, and isn't particularly predictive. It is largely of symbolic significance.

 

[New Ager]

The Good Guys

Romney
McCain
Huckabee
Guiliani

The Bad Guys

Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson

 

[danielk]

Of course, this is a very small sample size, and isn't particularly predictive. It is largely of symbolic significance.

From the results it appears this would be a nice little community to live in. I've been rooting for an Obama/McCain ticket all along! I'll move right now.

 

[UserGoogol]

The first voting results are in (very small voting area). These are the official totals of the actual votes: [snip]

Of course, this is a very small sample size, and isn't particularly predictive. It is largely of symbolic significance.

I'd say the real problem is that it might not be particularly representative. A sample size of 7+10 is tiny, but it would still support the (not terribly controversial) idea that Obama is going to beat Hillary (because 70% to 0% is a huge gap even with a gigantic margin of error).

 

[Puppycow]

Um, don't look now if you're an Obama supporter but with 10% of precincts reporting Hillary is leading.

 

[becomingagodo]

but with 10% of precincts reporting Hillary is leading.

Your going to give me nightmares. I have to goto sleep now, when I wake up Obama better be winning. Saying that it only 10% well, I will know when I wake up tomorrow.

If everyone hopes I think Obama might win.

 

[rtalman]

If everyone hopes I think Obama might win.

My, what audacity!

 

[Dimalinch]

Reps:
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Guliani
Thompson


Dems:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Kucinich
Gravel

 

[Puppycow]

This is excruciating.

Half an hour later and it's still only up to 15%.

 

[rtalman]

Could be a squeaker. Will the difference between Clinton and Obama be less than the total votes for Biden and Dodd (who have officially dropped out)?

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

For reference:

7:37pm
Senator John Edwards : 33.66%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.02%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.69%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.21%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.17%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Precincts Reporting: 176 of 1781 (10% in)

7:55pm
Senator John Edwards : 32.52%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.43%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.22%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.85%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.81%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.09%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Precincts Reporting: 513 of 1781 (29% in)

7:58pm
Senator Barack Obama : 32.98%
Senator John Edwards : 32.29%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.88%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.70%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.01%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%
Uncommitted : 0.06%
Precincts Reporting: 586 of 1781 (33% in)

Late
Senator Barack Obama : 37.53%
Senator John Edwards : 29.86%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.41%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1720 of 1781 (97% in)

Goddammit, I hate tension.

 

[Puppycow]

The NY Times is calling the republican side for McCain with 24% of precincts reporting. McCain leads Romney 37% to 29%. With 26% reporting Clinton leads Obama 40% to 34% although they aren't calling the democratic race yet.

Were the polls wrong? Or did something change people's minds at the last minute?

 

[T.A.M.]

Obama needs to learn how to cry...this primary may teach him...lol

TAM

 

[Richard Masters]

I have a new prediction. Rudy Giuliani 9.11%

 

[Puppycow]

Not to mention the betting market, which was about 95% for an Obama victory.

 

[T.A.M.]

Maybe this was a conspiracy to win big on the betting...perhaps we should set up a thread on this in the CT subforum...lol

TAM

 

[Mercutio]

For reference:

[snip]

Goddammit, I hate tension.

Where did you find those numbers? I'm here in NH, and that is vastly different from anything I have seen.

Statistical dead heat between Clinton and Obama at the moment, with just over a third of the votes in. Clinton up by 3 or 4 percent, but votes come in in chunks, not fluidly, and her lead has dropped by about 800 votes (out of 3000) while I typed this.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Where did you find those numbers? I'm here in NH, and that is vastly different from anything I have seen.

Oh, those were the progression of the Iowa numbers. Sorry .

 

[rtalman]

Where did you find those numbers? I'm here in NH, and that is vastly different from anything I have seen.

Statistical dead heat between Clinton and Obama at the moment, with just over a third of the votes in. Clinton up by 3 or 4 percent, but votes come in in chunks, not fluidly, and her lead has dropped by about 800 votes (out of 3000) while I typed this.

Those were the Iowa results I think. As a comparison to how long it took to get some solid numbers?

 

[Mercutio]

Ah. That makes more sense.

Hillary still up by about 2.5% with 42% in, as I write.