'Smarter' robots: The effect on humanity

[The_Animus]

Jimbo07 I appreciate your contributions to this discussion. I am not saying these issues don't already exist. I am well aware that there is sexual slavery in the world today. I am well aware that people working in low level jobs lose their jobs to illegal immigrants or people willing to work that same job for a lower wage. I understand this. I am saying that having robots take over these jobs would increase these same problems to a whole new level.

And there is also one key difference. Robots do not have rights. There is no legal minimum wage that would have to be paid to them. They have no unions. They don't need breaks other than to recharge and they can work 7 days a week, probably 18+ hours a day. No human being can compete with that.

So all the problems that unemployment cause today, all the idleness that results in gangs, sexual slavery, wars, killing would be multiplied immensely.

 

[Robin]

Jimbo07 I appreciate your contributions to this discussion. I am not saying these issues don't already exist. I am well aware that there is sexual slavery in the world today. I am well aware that people working in low level jobs lose their jobs to illegal immigrants or people willing to work that same job for a lower wage. I understand this. I am saying that having robots take over these jobs would increase these same problems to a whole new level.

And there is also one key difference. Robots do not have rights. There is no legal minimum wage that would have to be paid to them. They have no unions. They don't need breaks other than to recharge and they can work 7 days a week, probably 18+ hours a day. No human being can compete with that.

So all the problems that unemployment cause today, all the idleness that results in gangs, sexual slavery, wars, killing would be multiplied immensely.

Sure, there was hardly any sexual slavery, gangs, wars and killing before high technology.

Just the other day I was nearly abducted by a gang of idle lift attendants, personally I think we should go back to those halcyon days of the middle ages when everybody had employment and sufficient resources for their needs.

 

[Robin]

Sure, there was hardly any sexual slavery, gangs, wars and killing before high technology.

Just the other day I was nearly abducted by a gang of idle lift attendants, personally I think we should go back to those halcyon days of the middle ages when everybody had employment and sufficient resources for their needs.

Hold on, scratch that, I just thought of all the misery and unemployment caused by the printing press.

Maybe we should go right back to Eden and start scavenging on the corpses left behind by other carnivores and practising infanticide on the children we are not able to provide for.

 

[Jimbo07]

Jimbo07 I appreciate your contributions to this discussion. I am not saying these issues don't already exist. I am well aware that there is sexual slavery in the world today. I am well aware that people working in low level jobs lose their jobs to illegal immigrants or people willing to work that same job for a lower wage. I understand this. I am saying that having robots take over these jobs would increase these same problems to a whole new level.

... and all I'm saying is that anyone who doesn't care about these problems now, won't have that much reason to care as AI is adopted. The rich get richer n' all...

Now if, say, AI introduced the problem to a previously unaffected area? Well, there have already been big adjustments to sweeping layoffs. It's never easy on those in the middle, and never impacts those not directly affected. As well, if you're concerned about secondary effects, well...

... some people don't seem give a rat's patooty about the underlying causes of terrorism, now, anyway!

 

[technoextreme]

So currently the technology exists where robots are able to clean pools, vacuume houses, serve drinks, and recharge themselves when their battery gets low. It is also known that techonology seems to be 'evolving', by which I mean upgrading and becoming more impressive and complex, at an incredible rate. So it could be argued that 50 or 100 years from now robots will be able to do most 'low level' jobs.

I know you are talking about IRobot from your discussion about the vacuuming robots. No offense but "advance technology" had nothing to do with any of the consumer robots IRobot sells. It was just really creative engineering and probably $10.00 worth of electronics to create the AI.

... and all I'm saying is that anyone who doesn't care about these problems now, won't have that much reason to care as AI is adopted. The rich get richer n' all...

Sorry. Too late. Look up CNC machinary. It may not be pretty. It may not be spectacular but it's a robot and by gee golly it's used everywhere. This Asimo fluff is really masking the amount of adoption in robotics because it's only the "COOL" stuff that people care about. Not even the statistics are because of semantic reasons.

 

[The_Animus]

Well I think that is because right now it doesn't affect a big enough portion of the worlds population. Most people don't care because it simply doesn't affect them. Most people can continue on with their daily lives as if nothing is happening.

Right now there are people without jobs. People get layed off or fired. But look at every fast food place, every restaurant, every clerk from gas stations to bank tellers to many of your local department store employees. Now include factory workers, security guards, maybe even pilots, cab and truck drivers. All these people would be without a job.

When you have that many people without jobs its not nearly so easy to ignore. Especially when all these people have nothing to do, nothing to occupy their time but to cause trouble.

 

[technoextreme]

Well I think that is because right now it doesn't affect a big enough portion of the worlds population. Most people don't care because it simply doesn't affect them. Most people can continue on with their daily lives as if nothing is happening.

Right because manufacturing jobs are not a significant portion of the world's population. Go watch a bunch of episodes of How It's Made so you can learn how much of the process is basically automated by robotics. The Pretzel episode amazed me at the image recognition and robotic cells the used to package the boxes.

 

[The_Animus]

Assumed ignorance isn't needed in this thread, or in any for that matter.

I have watched many of those video's. They are very easily available online. Thanks.

And my response above was in reply to Jim. Not your post.

 

[Robin]

Among the many invalid assumptions being made here is that AI will only replace lower level jobs. But note how many investment analysts have been displaced by more effective adaptive automatic trading systems.

I will bet that we have a computer that can effectively replace the CEO of a company long before we have one that can fix my plumbing or plaster my walls.

 

[Robin]

... some people don't seem give a rat's patooty about the underlying causes of terrorism, now, anyway!

As I note that most terrorists seem to have come from jobs that are a good deal better than mine, I am pretty sure that poverty and unemployment are not among the underlying causes of terrorism.

 

[Robin]

Truth be told, technology has advanced far faster than they predicted before something like 1990.

For example?

 

[Roboramma]

While AI may replace some low level jobs it also opens up cheap small business opportunities.

At one point photo development was a large expense requiring considerable expertise. Now we have photoshop. When individuals can do things cheaper they can sell the skills that they have more easily. For instance, a photographer today doesn't need to invest in the skills and training to develop film, the space and chemicals for a dark room. All he needs is a good digital camera, a computer and decent photo editing software.
He might not even need to pay an accountant, because he can do his accounting on his own with the help of some software.

The point? "Robots" may take some jobs (both "high" and "low" level), but they will also open up new ones. They will (and are, and have) create new economic opportunities. And there's no reason that those opportunities will necessarily only be concentrated in the hands of the rich.

 

[The_Animus]

Thank you for your response Roboramma. I agree that it seems that while improved technology takes away some jobs its also creates new ones. So even if robots took over many service jobs such as those in fast food or restaurants it may also create new jobs.

I do recall reading articles that said that most jobs of the future haven't even been invented yet.

 

[The Man]

Thank you for your response Roboramma. I agree that it seems that while improved technology takes away some jobs its also creates new ones. So even if robots took over many service jobs such as those in fast food or restaurants it may also create new jobs.

I do recall reading articles that said that most jobs of the future haven't even been invented yet.

Very true, do not forget about people like me, who’s job it is to install, fix and maintain robots. The people displaced by robots might be outnumbered by the people needing to be employed to design, program and maintain those robots. That is until robots design, program and maintain themselves. Then we may be looking at an entirely different society

 

[The Man]

Truth be told, technology has advanced far faster than they predicted before something like 1990.

What hasn't increased like they thought is humankind's desire to do something other than talk to our friends on cell phones all day long or boss each other around.

The lack of the "future, NOW" is due to motivation and nothing else.

A primarily robotic AI workforce has been projected to be obtainable in the next 50 to 100 years for at least the past 50 to 100 years. If the technology has advanced faster then the projections why haven't we obtained that goal and why do some of the projections still put that goal some 50 to 100 years away?

I agree that a lot of what was expected to have happened has not happened due to a lack of motivation and commitment. The same is true about the future, it will only be what we make it and not what it could or people think it should or might be.



http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/robot

Word History: Robot is a word that is both a coinage by an individual person and a borrowing. It has been in English since 1923 when the Czech writer Karel Čapek's play R.U.R. was translated into English and presented in London and New York. R.U.R., published in 1921....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.U.R._(Rossum's_Universal_Robots)

 

[drkitten]

A primarily robotic AI workforce has been projected to be obtainable in the next 50 to 100 years for at least the past 50 to 100 years. If the technology has advanced faster then the projections why haven't we obtained that goal and why do some of the projections still put that goal some 50 to 100 years away?

I'm not quite sure I understand what "a primarily robotic AI workforce" is supposed to mean in this context. Obviously, anyone displaced from his job by the introduction of a robot will have to find a new job. If you define "workforce" as "what humans are working as," then the idea of a "primarily robotic AI workforce" is oxymoronic.

On the other hand, if you look at what humans did fifty years ago, especially in the USA, I think it's quite reasonable to suggest that the workforce of 1950 (manufacturing, for the most part) has been replaced by robots.

In 1950, my brother would probably have worked in an assembly line and my sister would have worked as a secretary/typist. Today almost no one works as a secretary/typist because every executive has an AI-based word processor at their desk, and of course assembly jobs have been largely replaced by robots since the 1970s. So now my brother installs cable TV and my sister is a professional pet-sitter -- both jobs that largely didn't exist in 1950.

Sounds to me like the 1950s workforce has been replaced by a "a primarily robotic AI workforce" to me.

 

[rocketdodger]

A primarily robotic AI workforce has been projected to be obtainable in the next 50 to 100 years for at least the past 50 to 100 years. If the technology has advanced faster then the projections why haven't we obtained that goal and why do some of the projections still put that goal some 50 to 100 years away?

A colony on the moon has been obtainable since 1968, forty years ago. Why don't we have a colony on the moon?

 

[fagin]

Some jobs will be replaced by computers, others still unknown will open up. Some people will develope new skills, some will not. Some will prosper, some will suffer.
A few years before computers there was the industrial revolution. Same difference?

 

[The Man]

I'm not quite sure I understand what "a primarily robotic AI workforce" is supposed to mean in this context. Obviously, anyone displaced from his job by the introduction of a robot will have to find a new job. If you define "workforce" as "what humans are working as," then the idea of a "primarily robotic AI workforce" is oxymoronic.

On the other hand, if you look at what humans did fifty years ago, especially in the USA, I think it's quite reasonable to suggest that the workforce of 1950 (manufacturing, for the most part) has been replaced by robots.

In 1950, my brother would probably have worked in an assembly line and my sister would have worked as a secretary/typist. Today almost no one works as a secretary/typist because every executive has an AI-based word processor at their desk, and of course assembly jobs have been largely replaced by robots since the 1970s. So now my brother installs cable TV and my sister is a professional pet-sitter -- both jobs that largely didn't exist in 1950.

Sounds to me like the 1950s workforce has been replaced by a "a primarily robotic AI workforce" to me.

AI refers to artificial intelligence or the artificial capacity for learning, reasoning and understanding. Current robots do not have anything that could even remotely be considered artificial intelligence. The robots currently doing manufacturing are generally limited to the specific tasks they were created and programmed to perform. Some production robots have the capability to “learn”, in some regard, in that they can easily be reprogrammed to perform a task differently or a different task. This generally involves the operator placing the robot into a “learning” mode then manually moving the robot through the various steps once completed the robot remembers those steps and can repeat that operation automatically and with great precision. However this learning is merely a recording of certain positional and conditional inputs and involves no understanding or reasoning in the conventional sense.

Your example of a word processor is also not AI. A word processor is simply a glorified typewriter with additional functionality. A true AI writing system would collect the data, make the summary, draw the conclusions then write the report without the need for human intervention.

The robots I work with are used to deliver product from on part of the production process to the next. Although some of them operate fairly independently you could not take one outside that environment give it a pizza and a location then have it make that delivery. A true AI system, like a person, once given the basic understanding of the factors involved in making a delivery could apply that understanding to various environmental conditions.

 

[The Man]

A colony on the moon has been obtainable since 1968, forty years ago. Why don't we have a colony on the moon?

As we have both said a lot of things do not happen not because they can not happen but simply due to a lack of motivation. That lack of motivation kept a moon colony from being obtained back then and perhaps makes it even less obtainable now (since we would have to get back to the point we were then). At this time we have no heavy lift capability beyond low earth orbit. The Delta IV Heavy has a low earth orbit payload capability of 23,040 kg and an escape orbit payload capability of 9,306 kg the combined mass of the Apollo command, service and lunar modules was 46,768 kg. The shuttle can carry a payload of 50,000 kg but only into low earth orbit. Newer heavy lift vehicles are being developed. Even with a focused effort today to establish a permanent moon colony it may take a considerable amount of time for it to be obtained. Sure a moon colony may have been obtainable 40 years ago when we were making regular excursions to the moon. That goal is not obtainable today tomorrow or who knows when, until sometime after we again obtain the ability to reliably transport people and equipment to and from the moon. We certainly have the ability to regain that ability (lunar transport) should we chose to do so.