'Smarter' robots: The effect on humanity

[The_Animus]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/ptech/12/11/honda.robot.ap/index.html

I though this could be put either in the philosophy or business section. If the mods wish to move it then so be it.

So currently the technology exists where robots are able to clean pools, vacuume houses, serve drinks, and recharge themselves when their battery gets low. It is also known that techonology seems to be 'evolving', by which I mean upgrading and becoming more impressive and complex, at an incredible rate. So it could be argued that 50 or 100 years from now robots will be able to do most 'low level' jobs.

How do you think this will affect humanity? What will happen when it becomes cheaper for businesses to buy robots for low level positions than to have human employees? What other ramifications would this have in all aspects of life?

 

[Lonewulf]

That's... a big question.

I'm not sure how to start to answer it.

Overall, I think that decent AI required for jobs that a human mind is better apt for are a long ways off. 50 to 100 years, though, is pretty far away. How will it affect humanity?

Well, I like to think that Transhuman Space, by Steve Jackson Games, has a pretty nifty perspective on that... and if we can get AIs that can simulate humans, it's only inevitable that we'll have humans become AIs, out of desire for longetivity. Lots of interesting concepts there. Greg Egan's Diaspora give some interesting perspectives of the long-term effects of people downloading themselves as digital information...

I think that humanity and the AI will be very integrated, though. I think that every person with any sort of economic clout will end up having a household AI that can run various routines. Call in to your AI and have it cook dinner for you; call it in and have it tell you where your daughter is. Call in to your AI and have it call the police, medical services, or whatever else. Have it store phone numbers, recipes, data, information; it's your home computer plus your work computer plus your phone book plus everything else that you could possibly have use for.

As for taking jobs... I'm not sure on that. It depends on the design on the machine. I think that making a machine with all of the capabilities of a human may end up not being that cheap, honestly; I'd imagine that robots would be better apt for handling, say, hazardous waste and the like. More dangerous jobs... but as their intelligence levels go up, who knows?

Either way, sooner or later we may end up with a business that's made up of dumb cybershells controlled by a much larger more intelligent AI.

 

[The Man]

Unfortunately, this was expected to have happened some 40 to 50 years prior to our current time. Scientists and the projected advance of technology are no better at describing the future then psychics. If one third of what was expected to happen had happened, as expected, we would now be flying around in air cars with publicly livable space stations and habitats on the moon and Mars.

What would happen if we had robots capable of doing all the menial tasks we do not prefer to do? Well, I guess we would not have the current concern of illegal immigrants taking those jobs and then those people might not have the jobs they need, or the chance to survive and flourish that most of our ancestors accomplished, creating this brave new world of ours.

 

[drkitten]

How do you think this will affect humanity? What will happen when it becomes cheaper for businesses to buy robots for low level positions than to have human employees?

You mean, what did happen when it became cheaper for businesses to buy robots for low-level positions than to have human employees?

You're halfway up a tree, wondering what will happen when your feet stop touching the ground. Look around you and you'll see your answer.

"Calculator" used to be a job description, not a piece of equipment. Large companies had rooms full of people who would just crunch numbers; if you needed to know the time value of a proposed loan, you would give it to Larry, the "calculator" and he would figure it out for you. Today you ask Excel, the spreadsheet.

Switchboards used to be operated by "operators," and if you wanted to connect to a person in the neighboring state, you dialed the "operator" and she connected you (eventually).

There used to be a little man in the elevator who drove it up and down to make sure that everyone got to their floors properly. There was another little man at the garage who measured out your gasoline for you, and a third man at the grocery store who rang up your purchases.

What happened to the world when we replaced switchboard girls with computerrs?

 

[Beerina]

"Computer", too, was a term for a human who crunched numbers.

There used to be a little man in the elevator who drove it up and down to make sure that everyone got to their floors properly

These still exist in Washington, where Congress, "frugal" with spending $2.2 trillion per year, feels it must have paid, unionized people in elevators pushing the buttons for you. Of course, we're civilized as well as modern, so they sit on chairs while pushing the buttons for you.

 

[Jimbo07]

As for taking jobs... I'm not sure on that. It depends on the design on the machine. I think that making a machine with all of the capabilities of a human may end up not being that cheap, honestly; I'd imagine that robots would be better apt for handling, say, hazardous waste and the like.

There are ways in which human life can be so de-valued, that you can get warm bodies to perform horrendous tasks for dirt-cheap. Oops! It's happening all over the world already.

Why would people invest in robots? Unless the robots could do it so much better, that significant savings would be achieved...

 

[Lonewulf]

There are ways in which human life can be so de-valued, that you can get warm bodies to perform horrendous tasks for dirt-cheap. Oops! It's happening all over the world already.

Why would people invest in robots? Unless the robots could do it so much better, that significant savings would be achieved...

Breathe, Jimbo. Breathe. In and out. Count to ten.

 

[Cello Man]

Ideas that intrigue me about AI:

What happens if we make robots with such a high upper limit to intelligence, problem solving, and intuition that their personality becomes indistinguishable from that of human beings? Since we have no real scientific yardstick for consciousness, how do we distinguish between "simulated" consciousness and ourselves, the "real deal"?

What happens then? Will these robots or other AI's petition for the right to vote? Will they have to generate income and pay taxes? Will there be a Robot Civil Rights Movement? Suppose they decide that human society is inherently flawed, and they move to establish a nation of their own.

It's fascinating to think about.

 

[drkitten]

Ideas that intrigue me about AI:

What happens if we make robots with such a high upper limit to intelligence, problem solving, and intuition that their personality becomes indistinguishable from that of human beings?

Why on Earth should we do that? One of the primary advantages of computers (and one of the main reasons that people want robots in the first place) is because they can demonstrate intelligence and problem solving without the limitation imposed by personallity. For example, the Google spiders do not get bored by the triviality of the task they are asked to undertake nor annoyed at the content of the web sites that they have to index.

The most successful robots so far have been the ones with the least degree of "personality." I see no compelling reason for this to change. The last thing I want is a robotic vacuum cleaner that gets pissy when I spill something or a robotic dishwasher that nags at me because it disapproves of the food I eat. If I wanted that, I have a friend whose wife I could probably borrow (he certainly wouldn't mind getting rid of her for a few days).

 

[Cello Man]

Why on Earth should we do that? One of the primary advantages of computers (and one of the main reasons that people want robots in the first place) is because they can demonstrate intelligence and problem solving without the limitation imposed by personallity.

I'm not arguing that it's something we should be doing. But look at the push towards creating more lifelike humanoid robots (especially the work being done in Japan) and it's obvious that at least one sub-field of AI is heading in that direction, for better or worse.

Humans invented gods thousands of years ago. Now we seem compelled to invent ourselves all over again.

 

[Lonewulf]

Why on Earth should we do that?

Personally, I think it's kinda funny how you don't see any possible potential applications in AI design... but I guess that's just me.

Don't really want an argument one way or the other, especially knowing how they tend to turn out on this forum.

 

[Jimbo07]

Breathe, Jimbo. Breathe. In and out. Count to ten.

Sorry. Actually, I was agreeing with you in a sense. I don't think computers will replace labour absolutely, it will just change some of it. On a unit-per-unit basis, you'll never be able to have a robot that replaces a human cheaply. The places where robots have worked the best (and machines in general, thank the industrial revolution) have been where the entire process can be redesigned and economies found. I just think it's a sad comment on the low value some place on human life.

...

On the issue of AI demanding its rights, I've stated my opinion before. When the machines are demanding them violently, the philosophers will be free to debate whether it's really consciousness, or a mere simulation, while being fed through the AIs' Puree-o-matic 2.0s!

 

[The_Animus]

Well I was more referring to business application of the robots. Not AI to an equivalent level of human consciousness. I think that will be farther off.

Right now they can make robots that can distinguish between different types of drinks, they can pour those drinks and serve them to you. What happens when they can cook burgers and make fries too?

All restaurants will now have to decide between two choices. A one time expensive buy with occasional maintenance cost to get a robot employee who can work almost an unlimited number of hours, who doesn't complain, who doesn't ask for raises, who doesn't slack, or talk to other employees. Or continuing to hire people, who work less, have to be paid for every hour they work, who show up late, or call in sick, or quit, or ask for raises, or burn the fries, etc.

So assuming its cost effective, and I think that it will get to that point, you now have millions of people without a job. Now the same goes for sales clerks, bank tellers, bartenders, etc.

What are all these people going to do to pay their bills?

 

[Jimbo07]

So assuming its cost effective, and I think that it will get to that point, you now have millions of people without a job. Now the same goes for sales clerks, bank tellers, bartenders, etc.

What are all these people going to do to pay their bills?

That already happened for tellers with ATMs and branch closures. Canada is experiencing 30-year record-low unemployment figures right now.

This was debated with the coming of steam-driven pumps...

 

[rocketdodger]

So assuming its cost effective, and I think that it will get to that point, you now have millions of people without a job. Now the same goes for sales clerks, bank tellers, bartenders, etc.

What are all these people going to do to pay their bills?

Learn to be useful to the rest of us.

 

[rocketdodger]

Unfortunately, this was expected to have happened some 40 to 50 years prior to our current time. Scientists and the projected advance of technology are no better at describing the future then psychics. If one third of what was expected to happen had happened, as expected, we would now be flying around in air cars with publicly livable space stations and habitats on the moon and Mars.

Truth be told, technology has advanced far faster than they predicted before something like 1990.

What hasn't increased like they thought is humankind's desire to do something other than talk to our friends on cell phones all day long or boss each other around.

The lack of the "future, NOW" is due to motivation and nothing else.

 

[latent aaaack]

The more jobs went to cheap robots the more money would be centralized in fewer peoples' hands and the more angry jobless youth there would be. Past a certain point a form of communism or the government simply paying the jobless enough to live would be the only answer. It would just need to be an extension of social security. But what would happen if 50% of the population was without a task and just sat around getting paid for nothing? How would angst, crime, and depression be controlled?

Video games and porn? My guess is virtual reality games and virtual reality porn to keep the jobless, poor masses happy followed by the powerful making them go extinct without them realizing it while they're racking up kills and having sex with their favorite celebrities.

 

[Jimbo07]

Video games and porn?

That's what's happening with the surplus of males in China right now, only the porn isn't even virtual. Women are being put through sexual slavery. We don't need robots for any of this misery to occur...

 

[The_Animus]

No, but it would increase the problem.

People like to feel useful. Without it many people become depressed. Even now in a low level job people are still being useful. Someone has to do it. When you want pizza, someone has to make it.

But if robots took over all the low level jobs you would have many poor people without the skills needed to get another job. It's not like they have money to go to college to learn new skills. Even if they could get loans and such do you expect someone who is 40 to spend $30,000 and 4+ years in college to learn a new skill? What do they do for those years they are learning a new skill? It's not like they can get a job to pay the bills.

The only thing I could think is if the government stepping in and offered free living, food, and education for those who lost their jobs.

But the problem doesn't stop there. During the time that all these people are re-training the robot technology would also be improving and allowing them to be implemented in more jobs. To try to re-train people would become a continueous cycle of learning new skills and being replaced by robots who can do it better for cheaper.

 

[Jimbo07]

To try to re-train people would become a continueous cycle of learning new skills and being replaced by...

... people who would do the same thing much cheaper.

The problems already exist. It won't be compounded by A.I. because it's bad now! There are lots of disenfranchised people fighting wars around the world. Nothing productive to do? Kill someone!

These are not problems related specifically to A.I. is all...