Belz...
Fiend God
Chalk one more up for the inefficient, incompetent Abrahamic God.
Well he DID flood the world instead of just wishing the sinners out of reality...
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Chalk one more up for the inefficient, incompetent Abrahamic God.
When I specify sane adults, I'm disregarding testimony from people who are known to have difficulty separating reality from fantasy. That's hardly an arbitrary disregard of testimony that I don't agree with. It seems to me that it is you who are committing that particularly fallacy.
How can a hypothesis of 'mass hallucination' be falsified?
Grown adults do not have that difficulty? How would you describe psychics and those that pay them money?When I specify sane adults, I'm disregarding testimony from people who are known to have difficulty separating reality from fantasy.
That's hardly an arbitrary disregard of testimony that I don't agree with. It seems to me that it is you who are committing that particularly fallacy. You are disregarding the testimony of anyone who claims to have had a religious experience because you disagree with them.
Nope.So, you arbitrarily disregard testimony you don't agree with. Got it.
Actually, you are the one that is claiming that your "vision" is true. I would demand evidence, through outside objective sources, that your vision is true. If none can be provided, then I would disregard such testimony or accept a simpler explanation. For instance: I can believe that your vision is proof that God exists, that there is Heaven and Hell, and that we all have souls... or I could use Occam's Razor.How can a hypothesis of 'mass hallucination' be falsified? If a skeptic wished to dispute such an explanation, how would you prove to a skeptic that your explanation is the correct one?
Then I rest my case, since there is no case to debate. You just have handwaved "evidence" that I can't even peruse. I'm not interested.Quite right. First, my observations of people who do provide such evidence is that it isn't a civil discussion at all, but an invitation to a mass attack. Second, I'm not a believer in any particular deity, so I can hardly present you with evidence I personally find convincing.
Actually, I added in believers claiming that their beliefs are true. Or else Christians are sitting in church on their knees wallowing in their sins for a false God, and I'm pretty sure that's not their goal.You've added the part about my claiming the belief is true.
That's like saying that since there isn't evidence of unicorns, but you can't claim that no unicorns exist ever, belief in unicorns existing and belief in them not existing are both equally rational. I'm unconvinced that such a position is rational.I haven't done that. I'm only saying that if the evidence is not compelling either way (and it isn't) then theism and atheism are both rational conclusions that a skeptic can come to.
I haven't done that. I'm only saying that if the evidence is not compelling either way (and it isn't) then theism and atheism are both rational conclusions that a skeptic can come to.
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In short, it is the predictive power of empirical skepticism that makes it such a powerful tool.
Do you think there is an objective way to establish if a particular belief is irrational?Yes, I am using the words interchangeably, as if a belief is irrational, it is unreasonable to hold that belief. And see my earlier post for the answer to your second question - in short, that he has a blind spot (in this case likely a temporary blind spot) does not stop him from being a skeptic, it just means that he's human. He should apply skepticism more rigorously, but making one mistake doesn't change him from being a skeptic to being a woo proponent. It just means that he has to be more careful.
But that is partly the point - he may not have any evidence that what he saw was a hoax, but hoaxes do happen (and if they're good then you hopefully wouldn't know that you'd been hoaxed), so at least there is a precedent for that opinion. He may not believe that he and his friends were hallucinating, but hallucinations are not at all uncommon, and so there is at least a precedent for that opinion. So far we haven't seen empirical evidence for the existence of even one Loch Ness Monster, so that opinion is entirely without basis or precedent.
That would be entirely dependant on the method by which he arrived at his estimate of probability.
At the first two points there is still no additional empirical evidence supporting the idea that what he saw was a lake monster - after all, the only possibility that has really been ruled out is that he was under the influence of hallucinogenic drugs. There are other causes of hallucinations, and the idea that he couldn't have been hoaxed is really no more than an argument from incredulity. The second point simply introduces the tabloid media and some unreliable, blurry and easily faked photographs into the mix - not good evidence for the monster.
At points three and four it becomes more reasonable to believe in the monster as more evidence comes to light. I would suggest that accepting the preliminary jounalistic report in point three as completely accurate without further investigation would still be jumping he gun - the report would give a reason to suspect that it is more likely that something exists, but until the final report is released it is still too early to really believe the monster exists.
As for the report that offers an alternate explanation, without knowing the weight and likelihood of the alternative explanation as opposed to the explanation put forward in the positive report, I cannot make an informed statement as to where one should lend their belief.
No, except for the obvious difference in material claims (crystals versus pendulum). They are distinct, therefore, by virtue of their material differences.
What difference does it make if a person holds a belief in absence of evidence, as opposed to holding a belief due to faulty or unreliable evidence? I have already said, one blind spot does not stop a person being a skeptic. More than one and it likely stops being a 'blind spot' and becomes more likely that the person does not have a good grasp of skepticism.
Someone, maybe you, should become a televangelist basing your dogma and requests for funds on one or more of them, then.
Aren't you surprised no one has yet done so? The business by most appearances is lucrative.
I state I haven't been. As to others who claim to have been, unknown.
What is the basis for your claim of Millions?
Grown adults do not have that difficulty?
I regard professional psychics as entertainers (that's generally how they advertise their services) and those who pay them as easily amused.How would you describe psychics and those that pay them money?
Okay. But you are arbitrarily dismissing testimony you don't like because you don't agree with it, whereas I am dismissing testimony because there is evidence that certain groups of people (children and lunatics) have trouble distinguishing between fantasy and reality. I would reject testimony from those same people for the same reason on entirely different subjects. Attorneys would try to avoid puting such folks on the witness stand because their testimony is not considered as reliable as that of a sane adult. Whereas you presumably would accept personal testimony from the same group (god believers) on other subjects. No reason to exclude such people from testifying in a court of law. While you are certainly entitled to your subjective opinion on the matter, hopefully you will understand it comes across as what you are accusing me of: an arbitraty rejection of testimony you don't agree with because you don't agree with it.If all adults were able to separate reality from fantasy, I would be far less infuriarated with people that hold certain silly beliefs...
Also, all I have to do is state that religious people that have "visions" are unable to separate fiction from reality. There we go. You throw out kids, I throw out god-talkers.
Not quite. I don't automatically reject the testimony of a sane adult on any of those subjects, I just have yet to meet a sane adult who gives testimony to the existance of the IPU or Santa Claus in anything other than an internet forum. And no, I don't take everything I read on the internet as true.Actually, you are the one that accepts the testimony of anyone that talks about "God". But the IPU or Santa Clause? Get outta here.
What 'vision' do you think I have claimed is true?Actually, you are the one that is claiming that your "vision" is true. I would demand evidence, through outside objective sources, that your vision is true.
It's fine if you want to disregard such testimony. It certainly can't be proven to be true. All I'm saying is that I don't automatically reject such testimony as untrue. Neither do I assume it is true.If none can be provided, then I would disregard such testimony or accept a simpler explanation. For instance: I can believe that your vision is proof that God exists, that there is Heaven and Hell, and that we all have souls... or I could use Occam's Razor.
Then I rest my case, since there is no case to debate. You just have handwaved "evidence" that I can't even peruse. I'm not interested.
No, I'm saying that the evidence for unicorns is much weaker than the evidence for god because I'm unaware of any sane adults that will provide personal testimony to the existance of a unicorn. Thus, while I have seen testimonial evidence for the existance of god, i have yet to see any such evidence for the existance of unicorns.That's like saying that since there isn't evidence of unicorns, but you can't claim that no unicorns exist ever, belief in unicorns existing and belief in them not existing are both equally rational. I'm unconvinced that such a position is rational.
Children and lunatics are known to have difficulty distinguishing reality from fantasy as sane adults. Do you really think their testimony should be regarded as equal to that of sane adults?
By all accounts, plenty of people have done so.
You stated " If the higher number of reports indicates a higher probability of existence, do you similarly believe that millions of Americans have been abducted by aliens? ".John Mack and his alien abduction stories. He included so many traits found in abductees that it would mean that a couple of million Americans are abducted.
Invisible Pink Unicorn?![]()
I'd phrase that slightly differently. My take on it is that if a belief is widely held and there is no evidence against it, it seems entirely reasonable for a person to hold that belief. There is, to the best of my knowledge, no evidence against the existance of a deity.
So it's only irrational if interpreted in a strict literal sense. I agree. I don't actually interpret it literally either. But the same is true of most religious texts, they are irrational only if interpreted literally. I don't think any of the religious skeptics (the ones posting here anyway) are accepting strict literal interpretations of their religious texts.
We draw conclusions from the evidence we have available. If all we have is anecdotal evidence, that's what we use. I agree, it's less likely to be correct, but that's doesn't imply that a conclusion from anecdotal evidence is incorrect or that it is invalid to draw a conclusion from such evidence. We simply have to be aware that the probability of a correct conclusion is lower.
I think there is a difference between blinding believing any and everyone's account of their religious experiences and dismissing all testimonial evidence as invalid.
Atheists can be as arrogant as theists regarding the correctness of their conclusions. It seems to me that both theism and atheism are reasonable conclusions that people can come to when they honestly examine all the evidence available.
When I specify sane adults, I'm disregarding testimony from people who are known to have difficulty separating reality from fantasy.
There's no logical line that can be drawn to seperate between a skeptic and a non-skeptic. 1 woo belief but not 2? Seems arbitrary. And leaving it as an absolute is also indefensible. It would invalidate a portion of well established posters even on here as non-skeptics as they have a belief in God. When they are clearly very logically skeptical about a great many other topics and beliefs.
Good post again!
I would say that you pretty much answered the question: "what empirical evidence is there to prove that empirical evidence is a reliable method for seeking proof?", which is no mean feat. One issue I can see here though, is that to measure the predictive power, we would have to use a reliable method to test the results of the predictions, such as skepticism, but that means we would be using skepticism to measure if skepticism is accurately predicting anything, which I would have thought was the same sort of circular reasoning which dogmatic biblical literalists are often accused of.
Also I'm not sure that we can objectively establish if skepticism is the only way of establishing proof or if it is always a reliable way.
Do you think there is an objective way to establish if a particular belief is irrational?
I can't think of a way, but that isn't to say I necessarily think you must be wrong here. The problem from an objective point of view is that either the monster exists or it doesn't. The only "maybe" is in the guy's head. Using this example, can you suggest any way he could arrive at an objective estimate of the probability of the monster's existence?
Just from my own subjective point of view, I don't see how the scientific team have done a great deal to make the story any more convincing than say looking straight into the eyes of the monster. The newspaper could be paying them to create a big story, their equipment might be faulty, I don't know them personally or have personal experience of how trustworthy I'd judge them to be. The peer reviews add some credence, but for a big story, a newspaper might pay some scientists to write such reviews, or the original team might have shown real methods but faked the results. Is there a good reason to trust their supposed expertise over our own experience?
If I did my own experiments in my basement on something, would it be reasonable to believe my own results?
I'm still a little uncertain as to how much a person should apply skepticism to be called a skeptic. As you mentioned earlier, it is a powerful tool and useful for testing claims. To be called a skeptic, it seems to be a danger of becoming dogma. Should you apply skepticism to all parts of your life in order to keep the label? Why might it be reasonable to trust subjective experience to judge whether it's raining, but not to judge if seeing the black cat in your path has changed your luck? Or maybe a true skeptic shouldn't believe that it's raining without compelling objective evidence. Is there a line and what would that be based on?
Of course you'd phrase it slightly differently Beth - because otherwise it doesn't agree with you. Unfortunately, your take on a reasonable belief is ridiculous - whereas my criteria was that there not be any evidence supporting an alternate hypothesis, you say it is enough that there not be any evidence against a claim.
By your reasoning, the following are reasonable to believe in:
Assigning probability=nil to each of those says nothing about "god".
- Yahweh
- Santa
- Fairies
- Goblins
- Loki
- Vishnu
- Krishna
- Kali
- Reincarnation
And that is only a partial list.
What do those have to do with belief or disbelief in "god"?
- Homeopathy
- Telepathy
- Telekinesis
- Bigfoot
- The Loch Ness Monster
You appear to have an active imagination.
- Vampires
- Werewolves
- Invisible Unicorns
- Invisible Pink Unicorns
People could be gentically engineering one as we speak.
- Unicorns
Just to clarify my position on this issue, I never suggested the 50/50 thing. What I was trying to say is that in the case of determining the existence of something which we have insufficient empirical evidence to prove, assigning some kind of percentage probability is entirely subjective.
In other words, whether you believe that there's a 99.99% or 50% chance (or even just that's it's unlikely) that an undefined deity exists, that belief can be no more objective than a blind faith theist believing 100% or a strong atheist believing 0%. There is no definitive empirical evidence to base such estimates on, so such beliefs are all lacking objectivity.
Assigning probability=nil to each of those says nothing about "god".
What do those have to do with belief or disbelief in "god"?
You appear to have an active imagination.
People could be gentically engineering one as we speak.
Did you actually read anything in that post other than the list? Did you even read the sentence directly preceeding the list?
No, but nor should they be disregarded entirely. If a child witnesses a murder, are you really willing to ignore that child's testimony?Children and lunatics are known to have difficulty distinguishing reality from fantasy as sane adults. Do you really think their testimony should be regarded as equal to that of sane adults?
Including psychics that claim that they can make breaks in police cases?I regard professional psychics as entertainers (that's generally how they advertise their services) and those who pay them as easily amused.
No, I am dismissing testimony using occam's razor (which is NOT arbitrary), and lack of objective evidence.Okay. But you are arbitrarily dismissing testimony you don't like because you don't agree with it...
And I say that adults also have trouble distinguishing between fantasy and reality. Otherwise, we wouldn't have woo, and they wouldn't make billions off of poor saps like you....whereas I am dismissing testimony because there is evidence that certain groups of people (children and lunatics) have trouble distinguishing between fantasy and reality.
It's not depending on the subject, it's depending on the quality of evidence. Testimony, especially what you "feel", is not quality testimony.I would reject testimony from those same people for the same reason on entirely different subjects. Attorneys would try to avoid puting such folks on the witness stand because their testimony is not considered as reliable as that of a sane adult. Whereas you presumably would accept personal testimony from the same group (god believers) on other subjects.
Second-hand testimony is, however. You're giving me second-hand testimony, and expecting me to defend against it.No reason to exclude such people from testifying in a court of law.
Then you would be wrong. But keep trying.While you are certainly entitled to your subjective opinion on the matter, hopefully you will understand it comes across as what you are accusing me of: an arbitraty rejection of testimony you don't agree with because you don't agree with it.
So you are dismissing testimony. 'Kay.Not quite. I don't automatically reject the testimony of a sane adult on any of those subjects, I just have yet to meet a sane adult who gives testimony to the existance of the IPU or Santa Claus in anything other than an internet forum. And no, I don't take everything I read on the internet as true.
THEY claim it's true. Jeez, it's always about you, isn't it?What 'vision' do you think I have claimed is true?
'kay.It's fine if you want to disregard such testimony. It certainly can't be proven to be true. All I'm saying is that I don't automatically reject such testimony as untrue. Neither do I assume it is true.
'kay.Well, it's been an interresting discussion. Nice talking with you.
What about bigfoot? http://bigfootsightings.org/No, I'm saying that the evidence for unicorns is much weaker than the evidence for god because I'm unaware of any sane adults that will provide personal testimony to the existance of a unicorn. Thus, while I have seen testimonial evidence for the existance of god, i have yet to see any such evidence for the existance of unicorns.