No jimbob - the natural leads to natural selection.
There are many forms of "nature" that we can describe.
The important thing is self-representation, not self-replication. A system that self-represents itself by self-replication happens to be a "natural" one in biology. Our brains represent a self-representing system built by a self-replicating one. A system that does not represent itself cannot be said to be reproductive - i.e. reproductive systems must be representational by definition.
You must present the product before you can reproduce and represent the product.
Now as it relates to the analogy you must understand that an analogy tries to unite two separate worlds by showing that the concept represented by both can be united. That is the goal of the analogy is:
"Show that property 'evolution' in 'biology world' can be united with property 'intelligence' in 'technology world' by virtue of examining the iterations of the processes."
That is we must show that there is an equivalence between the iterations of 'evolution' and 'intelligence' - the algorithm - to show that in these different worlds they amount to the same thing.
Now we've already discussed many equivalences but I want to show that intelligence cannot be different from evolution by virtue of 'self-representation'.
Now I think we agree that the basic variants in the evolutionary process are "mutation" and "selection" - that is we can all imagine ways in which either can be deterministic or non-deterministic.
For example: mutation is non-deterministic but may not be if determined by some environmental factor like radiation.
Selection is non-deterministic because the phenotype does not guarantee selection but it may not be if we factor in all the determining variables.
Now the problem areas we are having are with regards to the "reproduction" and the "nature" : that is some of us contend a "self" is a necessary extra to the reproduction and others contend that there is an "artificial" where "intelligence" can achieve that which evolution cannot
Either way we all regard these processes as inherently deterministic - that is to say if we reproduce something then what is produced now was determined by what was produced before. We say that it is self-reproduced if the thing that was reproduced was also the thing that was reproducing. We say that if it is not self-reproduced then the production is determined by an "artificial" agent. We furthermore say that artificial agents are instigated by "intelligence".
Now in a world where "selection" and "mutation" are non-deterministic the only way that a reproducing process could exist is if an artificial agent decided what reproduction entailed - that is an intelligence would have to define an arbitrary standard of what is "self-representation". Being an arbitrary standard the only "self-representation" this system could perform is that of the non-determinism of the system itself - which is nothing new - or else it would have to create something deterministically.
Hence the "free-will" argument for human intelligence performing things evolution cannot is arguing that "free-will" is non-deterministic.
Now if we vary the system such that "mutation" is now deterministic then we will still be selecting products at random but now there will be natural relationships from one product to the next.
Let us take a deterministic binary mutation as an example.
0 -> 10, 00
1 -> 01, 11
So we produce two new products for every original one like this:
0 -> 10, 00 -> 01, 11, 10, 00, 10, 00, 10, 00 ...
Now the pattern of the mutation will come through even with non-deterministic selection as long as not all of the products are eliminated since there will be a progressively increasing "memory" in the deterministic pattern being expressed - i.e. the deterministic changes can be spotted by observing what the overall trend in the sequence is.
Non-deterministic selection:
0 -> [10], 00 -> 01, [11], 10, [00] -> 01, 11, [10], 00 -> 01, 11, 10, 00 ...
Now in this system what an "intelligence" can do is decide it wants to know more about the deterministic mutation that is being "hidden" by the non-deterministic selection of the patterns. Now it can do this by "artificially" placing agents into the system.
That is I want to know about "0" so I do:
0 -> 10, [00] -> 10, [00], 10, [00] -> 10, 00, 10, 00, 10, 00, 10, 00, 10, 00
The pattern is much more readily apparent in fewer iterations than the above. We also end up with a "self" representing system.
In a system with non-deterministic mutation and deterministic selection the determining factor of selection is what is natural. An intelligent system would have to be "non-deterministic" in order to be able to select a mutation differently - i.e. artificial selection is non-deterministic and "free-will" is random again.
When the system is deterministic in all regards it will eventually cycle. An artificial agent will be the only thing able to break the the deterministic chain. That is to say an intelligent agent can produce things not found in this system by finding the cycle and producing something not found in that cycle - i.e. it can be non-deterministic. Self-reproduction is a natural consequence of the system being deterministic in this case.
Both cases where mutation and selection were either both non-deterministic or both deterministic lead to cases where an intelligence can introduce an artificiality to the system in order to make it deterministic or non-deterministic. In both cases it could achieve this deterministically.
In both cases where there was a difference the intelligence could not achieve anything more than evolution alone could achieve in self-representation other than to accelerate it: either by deterministically testing or non-deterministically creating.