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Global warming

For your reading enjoyment, here is my summary of key concepts from a recent Hansen peer reviewed publication. This is the state of the art in modern peer reviewed, published Climate Science -

Unproved hypothesis, wild assertions, conjectures with NO supporting data, on and on and on. One could simply not make this stuff up.


I take two things from this post:

First, if this is the sort of work that gets by peer review, what's to stop ClimateAudit? If you can do better than that, do.

Second, the paper was presented at a meeting at the Royal Society in London. If it strikes you as more speculative than scientific articles usually are, that could be the reason why. It's a paper from a Discussion Meeting.

You can read more here.
 
Assume it is desirable to prove that AGW was strictly by human factors.
Assume you are on the scientific team that was asked to prove that.

How would you do it?


"Assume it is desirable"? Desirable to whom?

Okay, how to do it. I guess I would need to get the right people on board. The COMINTERN would be essential; they hate America and have branches everywhere. Their comrades in the US chapter, the Democratic Party, would be extremely valuable. They could get control of the EPA and destroy America through over-regulation, not to mention stuff all the science funding bodies with people that only approve grants for projects that "prove AGW". NASA, too, better get them in on it. Everybody trusts NASA. That should stitch things up nicely. If I have control of all the scientific funding bodies and practicing climatologists, the US government, the EPA and NASA, I reckon I could prove whatever is "desirable".

The only problem I can see would be the oil and coal industry. But how much of an obstacle could they be? Nothing the UN can't handle, I'm sure.

Oh yes, and I'll hire a bunch of Guardian eating, sandal reading, left wing pinko liberals to push the party sorry, science line on internet blogs and forums. Heck, they'd probably do it for free.

That's one way to "prove that AGW was strictly by human factors".

Of course, if I was testing the hypothesis my approach would have to be quite different, and the outcome wouldn't be anywhere near as certain.

"Assume it is desirable to prove that AGW was strictly by human factors." Really, is that how you think climate science has been done?
 
"Assume it is desirable"? Desirable to whom?

Okay, how to do it. I guess I would need to get the right people on board. The COMINTERN would be essential.... "Assume it is desirable to prove that AGW was strictly by human factors." Really, is that how you think climate science has been done?

I must not have said what I meant to say.

So let me try again.

It is well established that past (MWP) was similar to today's climate.

You are asked to form several, if possible, theories with as strong support as possible that current warming is largely man made.

How is it done?

AGW is now just GW.

Natural GW causes.... glaciers receding, sea level rise, arctic ice loss, species migration, hurricane intensity, drought, Katrina....

And no one is worrying about polar bears.
 
I take two things from this post:

First, if this is the sort of work that gets by peer review, what's to stop ClimateAudit? If you can do better than that, do.

Second, the paper was presented at a meeting at the Royal Society in London. If it strikes you as more speculative than scientific articles usually are, that could be the reason why. It's a paper from a Discussion Meeting.

You can read more here.

It was not peer reviewed?
 
More than good soundbites? Yes, there are in AGW all the parts of a good monsters in the closet story told to young children to frighten them before they go to bed.

Maybe that was why the scientists thought it might be an idea to tell someone. Just as other scientists pass it on when they find out about carcinogens, the need to exercise, not eat a high sugar diet, etc. Would you believe they actually tell this to kids, so they won't get diabetes when they are young, or die prematurely? The scoundrels.

To accurately answer your question, though, here goes. There was a MWP as warm or warmer than today.

Assume it is desirable to prove that AGW was strictly by human factors.
Assume you are on the scientific team that was asked to prove that.

Assumptions are pretty pointless, unless you are going to come up with some evidence to prove them.

Which is what appears to be lacking every time this accusation is raise.
 

*yawn*

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2007/09/eli-does-schulte-it-occurred-to-eli.html

You can do this yourself, but the interesting things are

1. A large majority of the references dealt with the economic and biological consequences of global climate change showing the wide scientific consensus agreeing with the IPCC AR4

2. In the first 200 or so listings there were none that argued against the conclusions of the IPCC AR4.

Everybunny is welcome to repeat this exercise. Remember to use the advanced search in Google Scholar, enter the string "global climate change" in the match exact phrase box and set the limits for the year that you want.

Please send your results to Princess Denial c/o Energy and Environment.
 
I must not have said what I meant to say.
So let me try again.
It is well established that past (MWP) was similar to today's climate.

You are asked to form several, if possible, theories with as strong support as possible that current warming is largely man made.

How is it done?

AGW is now just GW.

Natural GW causes.... glaciers receding, sea level rise, arctic ice loss, species migration, hurricane intensity, drought, Katrina....

And no one is worrying about polar bears.​
Even if you accept that, the science is saying, it's not going to stop there. It's going to keep rising.

To put this is the correct frame of reference, AUP, this is my response to Pipirr's pretty good question of "Why does the MWP matter all that much?". Or well, my second attempt to respond to that question....
 
According to James Inhofe, whack job and a half.

Er... no, the paper itself was done by Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte, apparently. After digging it a bit I realized that this paper has already been discussed to death earlier on in the thread because of it's relation to Monckton, so it's probably not the best paper to reference afterall.

I'll see if I can find something else for you. I did find a page or two that had some notes of interest on the consensus thing, but I'd like to find something a bit more solid.

Regardless, as I've said earlier, consensus does not equal science. There are enough scientists out there that disagree with the AGW theory that (to me) it's fair to say the science isn't settled yet.
 
Er... no, the paper itself was done by Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte, apparently. After digging it a bit I realized that this paper has already been discussed to death earlier on in the thread because of it's relation to Monckton, so it's probably not the best paper to reference afterall.

I'll see if I can find something else for you. I did find a page or two that had some notes of interest on the consensus thing, but I'd like to find something a bit more solid.

Regardless, as I've said earlier, consensus does not equal science. There are enough scientists out there that disagree with the AGW theory that (to me) it's fair to say the science isn't settled yet.

Science is not settled?

Talking points for the British Ministry of EverTruthy Climate Propaganda says to always say the science is settled.
Warm Words
a spin doctor’s manual for convincing the public that they face a climate catastrophe
 
Yes, I did read what you said. But if the MWP and LIA exists, it makes sense that we'd be warming up again.

It doesn't make sense that it would be happening for no observable reason. Climate change doesn't just happen. It has causes.

We weren't around in the 9thCE to observe the global (and solar) processes that led to warming, or the processes in the 15thCE that led to cooling. We had a wide enough coverage in the 19thCE to recognise how much vulcanism there was, which goes a long way to explain the cold climate in that century and the warming after the 1880's when vulcanism died down. There's also evidence of an increase in solar activity in the first half of the 20thCE.

We now have a very wide and close observation of the planet (and of the Sun) and would surely be seeing natural influences on climate, say equivalent to what led up to the MWP. We don't have to speculate, we can observe.

I would agree that there is possibly some additional warming due to manmade GHG, but not to the extent that many AGW people believe.

AGW is not speculative, it's based on sound science going back a century-and-a-half. What natural warming influences have been observed over these last three decades? Where's the extra energy coming from?

There's no consensus answer to those questions even amongst contrarian scientists (a relevant BBC link has been posted, I think).
 
You mean according to Senator James Inhofe, who you do not like because he does not share your far left views on numerous matters?

Inhofe is a buffoon, senator or not. There are left-wing buffoons as well (Huey Long, George Galloway, just off the top of my head); buffoonery is not confined to any particular part of the political spectrum.

Nor, by the way, is acceptance (or denial) of AGW in any way evidence of a political stance. There are far-left denialists a-plenty. "AGW is a Western Imperialist plot", that sort of stuff.
 
I suggest going through and reading at least the first few pages of the paper I linked to. It talks about some of the policy decisions that were made in terms of how the IPCC reports on the scientific reports and this basically is breaking one of their own rules in how they report things.

The only policy decision I can recall is the Kyoto Protocol, which was windbaggery. I'm not at all convinced that the IPCC broke its own rules, despite this guy's assertions (who was it again? I've been a bit absent recently).

See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7082088.stm for a description of how the IPCC produces its reports.

"The IPCC is not, as some believe, a group of scientists, but a panel set up by the United Nations comprising representatives from about 140 governments to consider what we currently know about climate change.

The panel decides whether an assessment is needed, and then engages scientists to conduct it.
Since its establishment in 1987, there have been four such major assessments, published roughly every five years (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007), sprinkled with occasional special reports on specific topics. Why this government role? The reason is because governments need a sound summary of knowledge which, once commissioned and adopted, becomes accepted by them."

If rules were broken governments have enough lawyers available to spot it, without needing to be told after the fact. It's not as if governments are hearing what they want to hear, after all. AGW is very unwelcome to governments, but they have come to accept its reality - even the current White House.

Yes, I have considered that actually. From what I can tell, the story told by McIntyre and others is far more logical than doing things like citing unpublished papers in order to back up the Mann et al reconstruction.

On the one hand a story (full of sound and fury), on the other pre-publication papers amid lots of post-publication papers.


I think that's been soundly kicked to death.

Have I EVER referenced Fox News or a WSJ editorial? No.

Did I ever claim you had? No. The message that you claim has been muffled does get covered by them (amongst others), which is counter-evidence to muffling.

I've cited peer-reviewed papers and documents from people that have been actively correcting mistakes made in the climate science field.

Yet you claim they've been muffled.

You missed the point of that comment completely... it was a joke because you said (probably off the cuff):

I was joking about nit-picking it because I know you didn't mean it like that... I guess jokes don't fly to well here.

That rather depends on the joke.

I meant that you must have changed your position. I seem to recall you arguing that IPCC was a scientific organization and therefore we could trust it.

You seem to recall wrong. The IPCC was set up by governments, under the auspices of the UN, to collate the research done by scientific institutions and present it to said governments. It does not do research itself.

I'm a bugger for consistency. (Brit idiom :))

But we agree that the IPCC is a political organization then (regardless of the correctness of what they report)?

Yes. It's an interface between the scientific world and the political world, and so has some politics in it. It's not the only interface - all major governments have their own scientific advisory bodies that they can call on to assess the IPCC reports. Those (let alone the lawyers) are probably more politicised than the IPCC. That's a lot of oversight, but governments still accept the IPCC reports. McIntyre is apparently less influential, even though freely available to said governments.

You keep on going back to this red herring, I am not arguing that it's not gotten warmer. That's a pointless statement that has no relevance to what I was saying.

It's still worth pointing out. For all the flaws of the first three IPCC reports - and they have been picked over obsessively - nothing has happened to invalidate them. It seems the IPCC has been doing something right. It could be luck, but there's an old saying : "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action". (Also there's "the third time's the charm", whatever that means.)
 
Inhofe is a buffoon, senator or not. There are left-wing buffoons as well (Huey Long, George Galloway, just off the top of my head); buffoonery is not confined to any particular part of the political spectrum.

Nor, by the way, is acceptance (or denial) of AGW in any way evidence of a political stance. There are far-left denialists a-plenty. "AGW is a Western Imperialist plot", that sort of stuff.

Leaving aside your examples of other buffoons, which I might well take exception with but which have not relation to the discussion, I assume you have some evidence, then the Inhofe is a buffoon?

Since he doesn't share your point of view concerning AGW, I can completely understand that you'd like to disparage him in some easy way. It's an easy way to shrug off some unpleasant truths and realities - a lot easier than confronting them.

But I've gone to the trouble to substantiate my comments about Gore and Hansen, and now Mann, with a great many facts.

You've got some that support the Honorable Senator Inhofe being a buffoon, right?

Let's see - references to the Congressional Daily, speeches full of Buffoonery, strange antics on the floor of the Senate?
 
I assume you have some evidence, then the Inhofe is a buffoon?
Somehow I don't imagine that the fact that Inhofe considers GW an out and out hoax (second in magnitude only to the separation of church and state "hoax") will convince you he's a nut. ;)

If you wish to discuss the fact that Inhofe's loony mythological beliefs drive his policy positions ("I believe very strongly that we ought to support Israel; that it has a right to the land. This is the most important reason: Because God said so. As I said a minute ago, look it up in the book of Genesis") perhaps you should start a thread in the politics section.
 
Somehow I don't imagine that the fact that Inhofe considers GW an out and out hoax (second in magnitude only to the separation of church and state "hoax") will convince you he's a nut. ;)

If you wish to discuss the fact that Inhofe's loony mythological beliefs drive his policy positions ("I believe very strongly that we ought to support Israel; that it has a right to the land. This is the most important reason: Because God said so. As I said a minute ago, look it up in the book of Genesis") perhaps you should start a thread in the politics section.

That he considers AGW a hoax makes him a nut? No, that makes him rational. But even to those whom thought it did, a nut is not a buffoon.

As for your disrespect to his religious beliefs, makes no difference to me. As you may be aware, Hansen has quite strong religious beliefs; so does Christy and many others. You, you've expressed a preference for Atheism (and/or Odin, IIRC). I've got no problem with that; of course; some might say you were a nut, but not a buffoon.

Thanks for the reply; you've convinced me of what I thought, that a rational, serious opponent to the extreme left wing environmental position, such as Senator Inhofe, is easier delt with by way of Ad Hominem attacks than actually debating his position.
 

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