Megalodon
Illuminator
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2001
- Messages
- 3,228
That is perceptive as to what the basic issue is. Now we differ on the facts and interpretations of them. I see the exact opposite, that Hansen's prediction was how the temperature would react if no government regulation was added.
Really? And what was the proposed regulation on plate tectonics? You realize nobody's taking you serious anymore, don't you?
Michaels discussed this at a hearing on the Kyoto protocol. In that context, it is of course necessary to forecast future CO2 emissions and promulgate government regulations to lower or mitigate those expected CO2 emissions. You do not have three planets on which you can do Scenario A, B, and C.
But that is not what the model does. And the model wasn't criticized on it's pessimistic view on CO2 emission rates, but on it's temperature forecast. Both of which are quite on the nose in Scenario B, that was ommited.
In his oral presentation of 6-23-1988 to the Senate, Hansen was proposing government regulations and beneficial effects thereof, and highly negative consequences of "Business as usual" with no government intervention.
Yes, he was, so what? The world is not the US, and the future is not a given. CO2 emission rates declined despite the lack of will of the US, and volcanic eruptions actually happened. Nothing of this has any influence on the fact that Michaels lied.
A postscript by Michaels (2006)-"That’s precisely the keynote of my testimony eight years ago: in climate science, what you think is obviously true can literally change overnight, like the assumption of continued exponential growth of carbon dioxide, or how the earth responds."
So a liar lies again to justify is lie. His testimony didn't address the CO2 emission rates in the model in any significant way. The reason is obvious, since he would have to explain that one of the scenarios they close to the real emission rates, and the performance of the model was quite good.

