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Global warming

A truly amazing predictive capability.

With it, what need have you of unvalidated models?

It's not amazing at all. Far far be it from me to claim such an accolade.

There's no trick to it. The models only reflect well-established science, which I'm familiar with, and serve to quantify its effects, within bounds.

The model that really matters is the big bad analogue model, which has had the good grace to stay within the bounds predicted by digital models. Coincidence? I think not. In fact, I'm convinced not.

Perhaps the next three-to-eight years will convince you. I doubt it, but only time will tell for certain.
 
Cycle 24 /pedant. ;)

Cycle 25 as a fall-back/realist :).

I've noticed a lot of chatter on the Solar Cycle prediction, and there's already a flavour of the fall-back coming through. I predict it'll get stronger over the next decade or so as Cycle 24 proves wanting.

Cycle 24 may well be spot-on for sun-spots, but climate change will carry on regardless. Cue contrarian chatter about inertia and Cycle 25 being the kicker.

If I'm right it won't so much be amazing as it will be "Well, duh?". If I'm wrong, I'll be very surprised.
 
Oh, you mean the Lomborg who was judged innocent of scientific dishonesty by the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty because he wasn't competent enough as a scientist to even be dishonest? That sure sounds like a creative construction of "not even wrong" to me.

Thanks for letting me know so I could avoid wasting time on it.
 
Oh, you mean the Lomborg who was judged innocent of scientific dishonesty by the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty because he wasn't competent enough as a scientist to even be dishonest? That sure sounds like a creative construction of "not even wrong" to me.

Thanks for letting me know so I could avoid wasting time on it.

Care to elaborate on this?
The interview is about his new book, "Cool it".
Do you think they will go after him again?
That would be interesting - it would help book sales, too.
 
Oh, you mean the Lomborg who was judged innocent of scientific dishonesty by the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty because he wasn't competent enough as a scientist to even be dishonest? That sure sounds like a creative construction of "not even wrong" to me.

Thanks for letting me know so I could avoid wasting time on it.

New York Times, 23 Dec. 2003:

Danish Ethics Panel Censured for Critique of Book


"...last week the Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation said the [DCSD] had exhibited ''significant neglect'' by failing to identify where the author had been dishonest, and had been ''clearly wrong'' for failing to offer Dr. Lomborg a chance to respond before its findings were published." (emphasis added)

Full article here.
 
No, I think everyone's pretty clear on the fact that Lomborg's not a scientist, and if he was, he'd have been convicted of scientific dishonesty in his own country. I see no reason to elaborate on that at all.
 
Cycle 25 as a fall-back/realist :).

I've noticed a lot of chatter on the Solar Cycle prediction, and there's already a flavour of the fall-back coming through. I predict it'll get stronger over the next decade or so as Cycle 24 proves wanting.

Cycle 24 may well be spot-on for sun-spots, but climate change will carry on regardless. Cue contrarian chatter about inertia and Cycle 25 being the kicker.

If I'm right it won't so much be amazing as it will be "Well, duh?". If I'm wrong, I'll be very surprised.

Actually, we've still have not reached SC23 minimum and likely will not until next year some time (March or later I believe). There is disagreement in the solar community as to what SC24 will bring, however Schatten et al have the best track record and they predict a very weak cycle. Dikpati is predicting one off the charts in the positive direction.

As there has been no additional warming in the last several years, land or ocean, Met O has conceded this and with their 'new and improved' climate model predict (forecast?) there won't be for the next few years and that between 2009 and 2014 temperatures will exceed 1998 levels. Do you think it's any coincidence Met O's predictions coincide with SC24? Of course they don't specify, but it's quite obvious they are counting on it.

You may be correct that warming will continue in the future, however currently it is not. We are now experiencing a cooling phase which from all indications will last at least until it's clear what SC24 will do. If it's very weak as Schatten predicts, the AGW empire will crumble under it's own weight. There has been no new warming since 1998 El Nino (not an AGW phenomenon), period.
 
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Care to elaborate on this?
The interview is about his new book, "Cool it".
Do you think they will go after him again?
That would be interesting - it would help book sales, too.

I watched most of the C-SPAN presentation today. Lomberg actually believes in AGW but doesn't think its consequences are as dire as the Chicken Little crowd. The questions and answers were for the most part quite thoughtful, except for one self-impressed bore who felt compelled to preface his question with some ill-considered political rubbish.
 
I watched most of the C-SPAN presentation today. Lomberg actually believes in AGW but doesn't think its consequences are as dire as the Chicken Little crowd. The questions and answers were for the most part quite thoughtful, except for one self-impressed bore who felt compelled to preface his question with some ill-considered political rubbish.

I've read Lomborg and was impressed. Are you saying he was the bore, or someone else? He did pretty well on the Cobert Report.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2007/09/co...n-lomborg.html

Lomburg on the Cobert Report.
 
Actually, we've still have not reached SC23 minimum and likely will not until next year some time (March or later I believe). There is disagreement in the solar community as to what SC24 will bring, however Schatten et al have the best track record and they predict a very weak cycle. Dikpati is predicting one off the charts in the positive direction.

As there has been no additional warming in the last several years, land or ocean, Met O has conceded this and with their 'new and improved' climate model predict (forecast?) there won't be for the next few years and that between 2009 and 2014 temperatures will exceed 1998 levels. Do you think it's any coincidence Met O's predictions coincide with SC24? Of course they don't specify, but it's quite obvious they are counting on it.

You may be correct that warming will continue in the future, however currently it is not. We are now experiencing a cooling phase which from all indications will last at least until it's clear what SC24 will do. If it's very weak as Schatten predicts, the AGW empire will crumble under it's own weight. There has been no new warming since 1998 El Nino (not an AGW phenomenon), period.
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_10323470851b043f87.jpg

http://www.solarcycle24.com
the sun is currently in a state of relative calm.

Prediction of strong SC24:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...ec_cycle24.htm
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita...ik06GRLMar.pdfPrediction of weak SC24:
http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php
http://www.iiap.res.in/ihy/talks/Ses...piyali_ihy.pdf

Met O seems to be in line with Tsonis 2007, and the theory of synchronized chaos.

Where may that lead?
 
http://www.solarcycle24.com
the sun is currently in a state of relative calm.

Prediction of strong SC24:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...ec_cycle24.htm
http://academic.evergreen.edu/z/zita...ik06GRLMar.pdfPrediction of weak SC24:
http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php
http://www.iiap.res.in/ihy/talks/Ses...piyali_ihy.pdf

Met O seems to be in line with Tsonis 2007, and the theory of synchronized chaos.

Where may that lead?
More ad hom attacks?:D

Tsonis postulates a .2C drop between now and 2020. Met O is the opposite, and more.

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Moreover, Schatten, having predicted correctly the amplitude of the 2 previous solar cycles, now indicates only a low to moderate cycle. But Dikpati and Hathaway, having worked on the sun's internal plasma flows, come up with a large amplitude. Unfortunately, this method is new and still has to prove itself.
 
Actually, we've still have not reached SC23 minimum and likely will not until next year some time (March or later I believe). There is disagreement in the solar community as to what SC24 will bring, however Schatten et al have the best track record and they predict a very weak cycle. Dikpati is predicting one off the charts in the positive direction.

As there has been no additional warming in the last several years, land or ocean, Met O has conceded this and with their 'new and improved' climate model predict (forecast?) there won't be for the next few years and that between 2009 and 2014 temperatures will exceed 1998 levels. Do you think it's any coincidence Met O's predictions coincide with SC24? Of course they don't specify, but it's quite obvious they are counting on it.

:eye-poppi:rolleyes:

They have not conceded anything, perhaps you could find the quote to prove your claim, or withdraw it?

Climate modeling has been worked on non stop to investigate the science, and it is now entering the next phase, integrating local cycles. Previously, technology was not able to provide with the computing power to do this.
 
What research, performed by whom, and published in what peer-reviewed journal of geophysical or climate research? Linky-poo, perhaps? CD seems to have tired of looking over articles with incestuous citations; I am not tired. I haven't been here in a while, and it looks like there's plenty of work for the weed-whacker.

The links have been listed already, so look around. But what's your complaint about it, anyway? Did you think the Holocene co2 level was rock solid steady?

If not, what variations would you have presumed, and why?
 
The links have been listed already,
You don't have any links,

so look around.
So you're going to try to waste my time looking for something you haven't posted because you don't have it.

But what's your complaint about it, anyway?
What complaint? I asked a question. You don't have an answer. Considering how many times you've been caught lying, I don't have any problem interpreting what that means.

Did you think the Holocene co2 level was rock solid steady?
Probably not, but I'm certainly not going to take YOUR word for it how big the fluctuations were.

If not, what variations would you have presumed, and why?
What's it to you? How about you actually produce some data, rather than just another claim, considering your track record.
 
One minor point about your first comment here. There has been an assertion that over the 8000 years of the Holocene erase, approximately 40 ppm of CO2 was introduced into the atmosphere gradually - thus in the absence of human activity, the level in about year 1800 would have been 240 ppm.

Research has shown this to be false, and has also shown that during the Holocene there was considerable rapid fluctuations in CO2 level. This is not to say that we are not now contributing approximately 100 ppm, just that the climate is dynamic and the natural level of CO2 does vary, roughly say between 2xx and 3xx. There is no baseline, static level which is "right".

The second point you make can be vigorously debated on several levels as I am sure you are aware. You can't have an international agreement to control CO2 when the Asian countries producing the huge brown clouds are excluded and when those clouds are known to constitute more than 50% of the problem in those areas. That makes no sense. You are then attacking one thing, a possible non problem and ignoring a known problem.

We could wind up as successful at understanding and controlling "the CO2 problem" as we have with controlling those dangerous freons, proven scientifically to be responsible for the ozone hole.:)

Moving this to Sci GW thread, more suited there.
 

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