[Moderated]Hypothetical Million Dollar Winner

[DMG]

In a religious disscusion on another forum where the JREF Challenge came up, I was asked about hypothetical instances in which the money would be won, he asked...

"What about nanotechnology or molecular computers or any number of sci-fi gadgets we wouldn't have the ability to detect? What if it were simply an incredibly skilled illusionist who managed to spoof all the equipment or subvert the observers? What I'm asking (for the third time) is if someone did something you couldn't explain is it supernatural or is it merely a natural law we currently don't understand well enough (or some other trick)?"

Not sure how to answer...
If the supernatural is found to be possible then doesn't it automatically become natural? IOW a "supernatural event" and a "natural event that we cannot yet explain or understand" are the same thing, yes?

But if James Randi the challenge was ever passed and the money paid, what would be the effect on skeptics?

 

[Darat]

(Welcome to the Forum by the way)

All your questions have been asked and answered many times before - I'll try to summarise some of the more common answers.

First of all it is entirely possible that the Challenge could be won by trickery and Randi has made it very clear that even if that came to light after the Challenge was completed the money would be paid out. The Challenge is about doing what you say you can do not how it is done.

Secondly - I m sure many people would consider it interesting and quite surprising and my own view is that it would stimulate fresh and credible scientific research into the area in which the Challenge was won.

 

[DMG]

(Welcome to the Forum by the way)

Thanks! Love this site!

First of all it is entirely possible that the Challenge could be won by trickery and Randi has made it very clear that even if that came to light after the Challenge was completed the money would be paid out. The Challenge is about doing what you say you can do not how it is done.

Really? I thought the "how" was extraordinarily important. The money is for "...anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."

Secondly - I m sure many people would consider it interesting and quite surprising and my own view is that it would stimulate fresh and credible scientific research into the area in which the Challenge was won.

Agreed. But if the challange was won and no mundane trickery was uncovered - would you feel forced to admit that something supernatural had occured? Or would the skeptic in you reserve such a judgement until more research and testing occured?

Oh - and sorry for revisiting this subject if it has been discussed many times before.

 

[sthomson]

Agreed. But if the challange was won and no mundane trickery was uncovered - would you feel forced to admit that something supernatural had occured? Or would the skeptic in you reserve such a judgement until more research and testing occured?

If a dowser (say) won the Randi challenge, I guarantee that he would be inundated with offers to further test his "powers", in a completely scientific and rational way. If someone can repeatedly find gold with no more than a pulse and a stick, then there should be some way of quantifying and harnessing that ability. Eventually (I imagine), scientists would discover the natural laws that explain dowsing, and it would no longer be considered "supernatural".

That's the Catch-22 for believers in the super-natural, and the reason science is so powerful. If we can prove it exists, we can study it. If we can study it, then eventually we'll find the causes of it, work out the effects, and harness it for our own good. Now, it's natural.

 

[plumjam]

If a dowser (say) won the Randi challenge, I guarantee that he would be inundated with offers to further test his "powers", in a completely scientific and rational way. If someone can repeatedly find gold with no more than a pulse and a stick, then there should be some way of quantifying and harnessing that ability. Eventually (I imagine), scientists would discover the natural laws that explain dowsing, and it would no longer be considered "supernatural".

That's the Catch-22 for believers in the super-natural, and the reason science is so powerful. If we can prove it exists, we can study it. If we can study it, then eventually we'll find the causes of it, work out the effects, and harness it for our own good. Now, it's natural.

I used to be a dowser, but now that's all water under the bridge

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I used to be a dowser, but now that's all water under the bridge

I was well endowed as a user but now there's water in my bridges.

 

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by Darat View Post
..........The Challenge is about doing what you say you can do not how it is done.

Really? I thought the "how" was extraordinarily important. The money is for "...anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."

You have just entered an impossible to escape circularly self referencing word game which is the standard site response to your questions.

It is logically beyond resolution because it is based on the underlying presumption, already evident in a post here, that psi-ESP events are by definition necessarily impossible, with the contradictory corollory and undecideable claim that they are ultimately accessible to and explicable by physical science: A contradiction in terms.

 

[rjh01]

If it was possible to win by trickery it would have been won by now. But no-one has even made a serious attempt at trickery... yet.

 

[H3LL]

Welcome.

I'll reiterate some of what Darat said.

The 'how' is not important. If you look through various attempts at winning the $million, you will see that the 'how' takes up a considerable amount of the time taken trying to establish a protocol.

Many applicants spend endless time explaining their pet theory about how they can achieve what they claim to do. Randi, and very few here, aren't even slightly interested in the pixie, angel, spirit, alien, Qi, ley-line or other source of their "mysterious" power. All we want to see is a demonstration of what they claim to do under controlled conditions. Some applicants just will not stop talking about their favourite fairy, even after repeated request to stop and provide a workable protocol.

If a claim to levitate objects is made. We want to see an object levitated. Who cares if the applicant has been granted supreme levitation powers by the Inglebod Demon of Booga-loo. The how is for others after we have seen an object levitated.

Unfortunately, no one has been able to demonstrate a single one of their claimed abilities.

Their claim, their agreed protocol and their agreed environment. Often they are allowed a test without controls for them to check their ability is working (nearly always with dowsers).

Not a single one has succeeded as yet.

For your other point. There are many things that we cannot detect. Their existence is hypothesised from the effect they have on other things. There is a lot of experimentation and research attempting to find such things. Sometimes they are found.

For example: We may know that thing X consists of A+B+C having 10 units of energy. But when we convert X to energy it produces 11 units of energy. There must be something else there...a mysterious D. What is/are D?

Taken at face value, Qi, although undetectable, its effect, when channelled through a Qi Master causes a metal plate to slide across a table. There must be something else, another force/energy added to the known environment.

This puzzle is somewhat spoilt when the other force is found to be a small guy under the table with a magnet.

.

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

You have just entered an impossible to escape circularly self referencing word game which is the standard site response to your questions.

It is logically beyond resolution because it is based on the underlying presumption, already evident in a post here, that psi-ESP events are by definition necessarily impossible, with the contradictory corollory and undecideable claim that they are ultimately accessible to and explicable by physical science: A contradiction in terms.

For the purposes of the million dollar challenge, "supernatural" just means "whatever you can talk Randi and company into accepting as a fit demonstration".

The real word games come from the woo-woos. Skeptics don't care whether you call it supernatural or not, we just want to see if it works.

 

[DMG]

Welcome.

I'll reiterate some of what Darat said.

The 'how' is not important. If you look through various attempts at winning the $million, you will see that the 'how' takes up a considerable amount of the time taken trying to establish a protocol.

Many applicants spend endless time explaining their pet theory about how they can achieve what they claim to do. Randi, and very few here, aren't even slightly interested in the pixie, angel, spirit, alien, Qi, ley-line or other source of their "mysterious" power. All we want to see is a demonstration of what they claim to do under controlled conditions. Some applicants just will not stop talking about their favourite fairy, even after repeated request to stop and provide a workable protocol.

If a claim to levitate objects is made. We want to see an object levitated. Who cares if the applicant has been granted supreme levitation powers by the Inglebod Demon of Booga-loo. The how is for others after we have seen an object levitated.

Unfortunately, no one has been able to demonstrate a single one of their claimed abilities.

Their claim, their agreed protocol and their agreed environment. Often they are allowed a test without controls for them to check their ability is working (nearly always with dowsers).

Not a single one has succeeded as yet.

For your other point. There are many things that we cannot detect. Their existence is hypothesised from the effect they have on other things. There is a lot of experimentation and research attempting to find such things. Sometimes they are found.

For example: We may know that thing X consists of A+B+C having 10 units of energy. But when we convert X to energy it produces 11 units of energy. There must be something else there...a mysterious D. What is/are D?

Taken at face value, Qi, although undetectable, its effect, when channelled through a Qi Master causes a metal plate to slide across a table. There must be something else, another force/energy added to the known environment.

This puzzle is somewhat spoilt when the other force is found to be a small guy under the table with a magnet.

.

Ya Thanks for all the thoughtful replies.

I am beginning to understand a little better now.

 

[Michael C]

If the supernatural is found to be possible then doesn't it automatically become natural? IOW a "supernatural event" and a "natural event that we cannot yet explain or understand" are the same thing, yes?

But if James Randi the challenge was ever passed and the money paid, what would be the effect on skeptics?

Richard Dawkins posed very much this question to Randi at TAM in 2005:

- Dawkins:
"What if there really is a perinormal phenomenon which is going to be embraced within science and will become normal, but at present is classified conventionally as paranormal, and so that's waiting to be demonstrated, and it will be demonstrated if there really is a perinormal phenomenon there. I mean, you shouldn't have to pay out for that, because it becomes physics, but I wonder how you define that which you are prepared to pay out for."

- Randi
"Well, first of all I'll say that if we had to pay out the million dollars, I'd happily do it. We would have discovered something wonderful and new and it would be worth a million dollars to have that phenomenon established."

 

[DMG]

Thanks for that vid MichaelC - appreciated.

 

[JollyRoger]

That's the Catch-22 for believers in the super-natural, and the reason science is so powerful. If we can prove it exists, we can study it. If we can study it, then eventually we'll find the causes of it, work out the effects, and harness it for our own good. Now, it's natural.

I guess its only magic or super-natural until you find out how it works, until then I guess we can all enjoy the illusion. Whether we sit in the back of the audience and try to figure it out, or sit in front in wonder and amazement.

I anxiously await someone winning Randi's challenge but something inside me has always suggested IF it does happens it wont be any time soon.

 

[maatorc]

For the purposes of the million dollar challenge, "supernatural" just means "whatever you can talk Randi and company into accepting as a fit demonstration".

JREF
...At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event.

Are you then saying the MDC is not actually about what it says it is about?

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Are you then saying the MDC is not actually about what it says it is about?

I'm saying that the functional definition of "paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event" for Challenge purposes is just whatever you can get Randi and company to accept as a fit demonstration.

Let me put it another way for you.

As far as we currently know everything that is usually described as paranormal, supernatural, or occult is either total bunk or a trick. So it is true as far as we currently know to say things like "supernatural powers do not exist". The Challenge is to demonstrate that you can do something that is paranormal, supernatural, or occult as far as we currently know.

Once you have shown that it is not bunk or a trick, then we can worry about what to call this new phenomenon. Maybe we'll call it supernatural, maybe we'll call it something else.

 

[RemieV]

I'm saying that the functional definition of "paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event" for Challenge purposes is just whatever you can get Randi and company to accept as a fit demonstration.

Let me put it another way for you.

As far as we currently know everything that is usually described as paranormal, supernatural, or occult is either total bunk or a trick. So it is true as far as we currently know to say things like "supernatural powers do not exist". The Challenge is to demonstrate that you can do something that is paranormal, supernatural, or occult as far as we currently know.

Once you have shown that it is not bunk or a trick, then we can worry about what to call this new phenomenon. Maybe we'll call it supernatural, maybe we'll call it something else.

Excellently put!

 

[Darat]

...snip...

Agreed. But if the challange was won and no mundane trickery was uncovered - would you feel forced to admit that something supernatural had occured? Or would the skeptic in you reserve such a judgement until more research and testing occured?

...snip...

I would personally find it very, very interesting; it's hard to be more specific than that as my exact response would depend on exactly what had just won the challenge and what the challenge was.

 

[Loss Leader]

"What about nanotechnology or molecular computers or any number of sci-fi gadgets we wouldn't have the ability to detect? What if it were simply an incredibly skilled illusionist who managed to spoof all the equipment or subvert the observers? What I'm asking (for the third time) is if someone did something you couldn't explain is it supernatural or is it merely a natural law we currently don't understand well enough (or some other trick)?"

It's been hinted about but I don't think anyone has laid out what I consider to be the answer:

The MDC is, at its heart, a contract. It is not a prize won by the first person to do something "paranormal." Instead, the claimant and Randi negotiate a contract. The claimant says he will perform X using methods 1, 2 and 3 and Randi says that he will pay $1 million if he does. All the claimant has to do is the thing he said he'd do in the way he said he'd do it. It doesn't matter if it's paranormal or not; Randi agreed to pay a million bucks for it and Randi would have to pay.

Where most of your tricksters get caught up is that they cannot agree with Randi on a method. This is because they need some room to perform their tricks and Randi is intent on not allowing them to get that room. So no contract is ever made. Someone relying on a new bit of technology wouldn't have that problem.

 

[maatorc]

.............As far as we currently know everything that is usually described as paranormal, supernatural, or occult is either total bunk or a trick. So it is true as far as we currently know to say things like "supernatural powers do not exist".

Because science does not currently know it is the practise to say everything that is usually described as paranormal, supernatural, or occult is either total bunk or a trick. So it is the practise because science does not know to say things like "supernatural powers do not exist".