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Global warming

LOL apparently losing half the ice in the arctic is a laughably insignificant indicator. :eek:

Wot, no error bars :) ? How close to half? Half of what? Prove it's not slightly less than half you alarmist greenhornswoggler :mad: .

(That's a word I made up.)

We really should discuss the real world more. The thread title's pretty inclusive, after all.

Predictions about ice-mass have erred on the downside generally, but this summer in the Arctic is particularly eye-catching. We're about at the turning-point now, of course, so expect the next interesting news in a few months time. Unless the melt-season itself is markedly extended, which will be dramatic news in itself.

Ice-dynamics modelling is bloody hard - at least an order above climate modelling - so we're learning by watching, really. It's all very exciting :) .
 
You guys just got all wet. Caught out in the rain?

http://www.co2science.org/scripts/Template/0_CO2ScienceB2C/images/spacer.gifIn an intriguing Climate Change report in Science, Wentz et al. (2007) note that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, as well as various climate modeling analyses, predict an increase in precipitation on the order of 1 to 3% per 癈 of surface global warming. Hence, they decided to see what has happened in the real world in this regard over the last 19 years (1987-2006) of supposedly unprecedented global warming, when data from the Global Historical Climatology Network and satellite measurements of the lower troposphere have indicated a global temperature rise on the order of 0.20C per decade.

They derived a real-world increase in precipitation on the order of 7% per 癈 of surface global warming, which is somewhere between 2.3 and 7 times larger than what is predicted by state-of-the-art climate models.

Based on theoretical considerations, Wentz et al. concluded that the only way to bring the two results into harmony with each other was for there to have been a 19-year decline in global wind speeds. But when looking at the past 19 years of SSM/I wind retrievals, they found just the opposite, i.e., an increase in global wind speeds. In quantitative terms, in fact, the two results were about as opposite as they could possibly be, as they report that "when averaged over the tropics from 30癝 to 30癗, the winds increased by 0.04 m s-1 (0.6%) decade-1, and over all oceans the increase was 0.08 m s-1 (1.0%) decade-1," while global coupled ocean-atmosphere models or GCMs, in their words, "predict that the 1987-to-2006 warming should have been accompanied by a decrease in winds on the order of 0.8% decade-1."

Wentz et al. tate that "the reason for the discrepancy between the observational data and the GCMs is not clear." They also rightly state that this dramatic difference between the real world of nature and the virtual world of climate modeling "has enormous impact," concluding that the questions raised by the discrepancy "are far from being settled."

Wentz, F.J., Ricciardulli, L., Hilburn, K. and Mears, C. 2007. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317: 233-235.

GCM's are not very good with precipitation. I don't think that's disputed. They don't need to be, really, since rain is weather, not climate. Rain doesn't influence climate. Clouds do, of course.

When it comes to finding out in detail how rainfall reacts to AGW we're just spectators. The general trend will be to a more rapid throughput of moisture, so more rain where it's already wet and quicker dessication where it's already dry. More floods, more drought. Just how much more will emerge from the statistical noise as we watch. As we are watching.
 
Shame really, it was so well reasoned.

Amusingly, Lindzen's Iris Theory depended on selected parameters to work. By "work" I mean explain why what's happening wasn't going to happen, which is what he was trying to build. Sadly, but equally amusingly, if it did work it explained why the current interglacial never happened. Not what it was aimed at, but consequential. The Iris Theory could not be refined to deal with that. So it unquietly got dumped. Even before direct observation established the actual parameters, which were wildly at variance with Lindzen's Elected Few.

This is basically what climate modellers are accused of by contrarians who mostly have a good opinion of Lindzen. Yet Lindzen got found out, while climate modellers were never so stupid as to try in the first place, nor did they even want to.
 
Amusingly, Lindzen's Iris Theory depended on selected parameters to work. By "work" I mean explain why what's happening wasn't going to happen, which is what he was trying to build. Sadly, but equally amusingly, if it did work it explained why the current interglacial never happened. Not what it was aimed at, but consequential. The Iris Theory could not be refined to deal with that. So it unquietly got dumped. Even before direct observation established the actual parameters, which were wildly at variance with Lindzen's Elected Few.

This is basically what climate modellers are accused of by contrarians who mostly have a good opinion of Lindzen. Yet Lindzen got found out, while climate modellers were never so stupid as to try in the first place, nor did they even want to.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL029698.shtml
http://www.uah.edu/news/newsread.php?newsID=875
 
Not in your area...no increased rain

No AGW hypothesis confirmation on that basis, sorry.

Another thing about that rain we get over here, it comes mostly from the Atlantic, and none of it from artesian water-mining in the US south-west. That may seem impressive from close up but in the big picture not so much. It's a question of scale and perspective.
 

And lo, proof is summoned that the Lindzen Iris Theory goes away unquietly, and quite possibly asymptotically. Lindzen isn't directly quoted in either reference from what I can see. He's bugged out, for good reason.

Lindzen's Iris Theory has not been borne out by events. It is therefore discarded. It was thoroughly contrived in the first place, not created to explain an observation but to explain why an observation - global warming - wouldn't be made in the future. That future is now the past, and global warming has been observed in the meantime.
 
And lo, proof is summoned that the Lindzen Iris Theory goes away unquietly, and quite possibly asymptotically. Lindzen isn't directly quoted in either reference from what I can see. He's bugged out, for good reason.

Lindzen's Iris Theory has not been borne out by events. It is therefore discarded. It was thoroughly contrived in the first place

From DR's link-

Abstract

We explore the daily evolution of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in satellite-observed tropospheric temperature, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and cloud properties. The warm/rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system, with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase. The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds, potentially supporting Lindzen's “infrared iris” hypothesis of climate stabilization.

Helllooo???....
 
Originally Posted by David Rodale

Anyway, this paper is being discussed at the following. Annan is claiming an error in Shwartz's article. We shall see how it plays out.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/...nges/#comments
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/20...-estimate.html​


What an attitude Annan apparently has - from his "review"
I am happy to let RealClimate debunk the septic dross

I hear that this paper from Stephen Schwartz is making a bit of a splash in the delusionospher

given the screwy results that Schwartz obtained,​

Why Annan has an attitude. From Climateaudit.org -
Their revised version is the version that includes their confirmation of our result that MBH verification r2 was ~0 - although they and UCAR had issued a press release that our results were unfounded. As I reported previously, Wahl and Ammann withheld this information in their first draft and included the information in their revised version only after I filed an academic misconduct complaint against Ammann.
​
In simple terms "MBH verification r2 was ~0" means no hockey stick.

Ammann has been a bad boy.
 
LOL apparently losing half the ice in the arctic is a laughably insignificant indicator. :eek:
​
We really should discuss the real world more. .

Yes, we should discuss the real world and the Artic Ice. Let's do that a bit. Obviously, dramatic and unprecedented climate change is based on a understanding of what is not dramatic and unprecendented. That is the reason Mann was so eager to get the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice age out of the graph, because they showed that current conditions were not at all "unprecedented".

Now Singer comes along and shows with a hundred citations to peer reviewed literature that the events such as the Medieval Warming Period are part of a cycle that has occurred for hundreds of thousands of years. Here is why that is important. Assume that you have a 400 year warm period in a 1500 year cycle, and it is 4 degrees C warmer at the peak. It takes 200 years to go up to peak, and takes 200 years to go down. That is 0.2 C increase (and later, decrease) per decade.

All or most of the 20th century global warming was well within the realm of natural variation as indicated by the historical evidence.

The past 2000 years is hardly all the human history available to us, and would encompass one - count them - and a bit "cycles". Of between 1000 and 2000 years. OK, maybe just one, or perhaps two. To me that just sounds like stuff happening.
The evidence is over hundreds of thousands of years, by a multitude of studies using a variety of proxies. A consensus exists on the 1,500 year cycle. Just one example -
Near Iceland, Maureen Raymo of Boston College found the Earth was undergoing Dansgaard-Oeschger's 1,500 year climate cycles more than a million years ago. Raymo and her research team retrieved a very long sediment core from the deep sea bottom south of Iceland. As the Raymo team wrote in Nature: "Here we use sediment records of past iceberg discharge and deepwater chemistry to show that such millennial-scale oscillations in climate occurred over one million years ago.... Our results suggest that such climate instability may be a pervasive and long-term characteristic of Earth's climate...."
​
M. E. Raymo et al., "Millenial-Scale Climate Instability during the Early Pleistocene Epoch," Nature, vol. 392, no. 6677, April 16, 1998, pages 699–702.​
Even if Singer's one to two thousand year cycles are real - that is, have some underlying physical cause - AGW could still exist. It's not one or the other.

They are not Singer's cycles. They have been noted by Dansgaard, Gerald Bond, Meter deMenocal, Maureen Raymo, Giancarlo Bianchi, Carin Anderson, Dennis Darby, Bettina Schilman, Boo-Keun Khim, F.S. Hu, Dirk Verschuren, and hundreds of other scientists. Singer has simply brought these various works together insofar so they relate to 1500 year cycles.

AGW of course could still exist. Relegated to a small, unimportant paragraph in the future textbooks on the history of science. Most likely the title of that chapter will be "Famous Scientific Frauds and Myths"

Singer's clutched straw doesn't define the amplitude any more accurately than it does the frequency. There's plenty of room for both an unrecognised mechanism of small amplitude and AGW over the last century. Even more over the last few decades.
There is room for both theories. There may be a small desk in the basement that Hansen, Mann, Gore, and Jones can share. You and AUP may visit them there and together discuss future planetary crises caused by the evils of man and his infernal combustion engines. By the way, would you take a can of roach spray down there for them? They have some work to do.

And do not forget the clear lack of actual scientific atmospheric experiments to prove or disprove the CO2 hypothesis.

Get over it. AGW is disproved by the historical evidence presented.
 
{snip}
And do not forget the clear lack of actual scientific atmospheric experiments to prove or disprove the CO2 hypothesis.

Would you care to be more specific here: what experiments, what hypothesis?

Get over it. AGW is disproved by the historical evidence presented.

That's cute, the way you just declared victory. Yet one might observe that the scientific community continues to publish it's disagreement.

You don't really think that the science of AGW is so settled, do you? I do intend that as a serious question.
 
Why Annan has an attitude. From Climateaudit.org -
Their revised version is the version that includes their confirmation of our result that MBH verification r2 was ~0 - although they and UCAR had issued a press release that our results were unfounded. As I reported previously, Wahl and Ammann withheld this information in their first draft and included the information in their revised version only after I filed an academic misconduct complaint against Ammann.
​
In simple terms "MBH verification r2 was ~0" means no hockey stick.

Ammann has been a bad boy.

Note that there is an "Annan" (James) and "Ammann" (Casper).
 
Yes, we should discuss the real world and the Artic Ice. Let's do that a bit. Obviously, dramatic and unprecedented climate change is based on a understanding of what is not dramatic and unprecendented. That is the reason Mann was so eager to get the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice age out of the graph, because they showed that current conditions were not at all "unprecedented".

The Mann et al reconstruction was an attempt to reconstruct a global climate history based on objective data. What the result demonstrates is that the MWP and LIA are represented in the record, but nowhere near as significant as the subjective European folk-history would suggest.

(I naturally don't accept your attribution of deliberate fraud and non-scientific motivations to the scientists involved.)

The actual "crime" of Mann et al and all the other scientists who have independently reproduced essentially the same reconstruction is that their reconstructions do not reflect the folk-history that ant-AGW populism - the sort of stuff that people like you lap up - is so dependent on.

Now Singer comes along and shows with a hundred citations to peer reviewed literature that the events such as the Medieval Warming Period are part of a cycle that has occurred for hundreds of thousands of years.

Suddenly Singer "shows" with citations attached (relevance uncertain) that current events "are" part of a cycle that can be precisely recognised from the very noisy data of the last few glacial cycles by statistical means, with the period of the cycle varying between one and two thousand years and the amplitude being whatever it takes to declare the turn of a "cycle". Data-mining or what?

Here is why that is important.

As you may have picked up, I don't think it is important. Which it isn't.

Assume ...

You started with "Yes, we should discuss the real world". Notice the dissonance?

What I meant by "real world" is more precisely "empirical world". The world around us. From which there's no refuge in history or well-racked statistics. Your Medieval Warm Period has convinced you of its star status, but it didn't persuade its contemporary permafrost to melt as today's is. That's what's going on in the real world. And there's no refuge from it in the past.
 
Would you care to be more specific here: what experiments ...

No fair. You're asking mhaze to describe something he clearly hasn't seen :) .

... what hypothesis?

Good question.

That's cute, the way you just declared victory. Yet one might observe that the scientific community continues to publish it's disagreement.

Nor are the seismic repurcussions in the scientific world at all evident. Nor in the world in general. A storm in a Forum, apparently.
 
There is room for both theories. There may be a small desk in the basement that Hansen, Mann, Gore, and Jones can share.

Gore, eh? What a basement guy. He's the poster-boy of basement guys. Plotting away out-of-sight of any that lack your insight and appreciation of the real world.

Are you claiming the penthouse for Singer? Poster-boy for a small and sorry audience? I can see how that might be some sort of compensation.

... evils of man ...

The Law of Unintended Consequences exonerates, it doesn't condemn. AGW is an unintended consequence of human ingenuity.

... and his infernal combustion engines.

"Infernal", "evil", Gore (of course) - where's the objective real world in all this? Is this the actually the real world as you perceive it? The evidence points that way.

By the way, would you take a can of roach spray down there for them? They have some work to do.

So the imaginary cabal is not only subterranean but vermin-infested. I can clearly see how you haven't been subject to propaganda.
 
From DR's link-

Abstract

"We explore the daily evolution ..."

Not so much a climate issue then.

... of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in satellite-observed tropospheric temperature, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and cloud properties. The warm/rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system, with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase. The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds, potentially supporting Lindzen's “infrared iris” hypothesis of climate stabilization.

Helllooo???....

"Potentially supporting" Lindzen's Iris. Not much, is it? What it does get is a Google-hit for mentioning Lindzen's Iris Theory and 2007. Which is where DR summoned up these links from - with no added comment.

Lindzen himself has given it up. The experiment has been run, and observations have shown the assumed - because then unobserved -parameters to be wildly inaccurate. Plus the fact that the "infrared iris", while designed to explain why AGW wasn't going to happen, also explains why the current interglacial never happened. Which is at odds with the evidence.

Lindzen's smart enough to dissociate himself from a failed project.
 
From DR's link-

Abstract

We explore the daily evolution of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in satellite-observed tropospheric temperature, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and cloud properties. The warm/rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system, with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase. The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds, potentially supporting Lindzen's “infrared iris” hypothesis of climate stabilization.

Helllooo???....

Fixed it for you.
 
Shame really, it was so well reasoned.
You can't knock the craftsmanship. IMO Lindzen stands above the contrarian crowd, intellectually. Tasked with producing an explanation for why an as-yet projected observation would not occur because it was - and is - unwelcome, Lindzen did a damn' fine job.

What he didn't - and couldn't, by the evidence - do is make it specific to a CO2 forcing. Which is what it was for, and where it broke down when tested generally. Lindzen's Iris Theory was as much a negative feedback during the glacial/interglacial shift as it might have been recently. So much so that it wouldn't have happened.

Lindzen has become poitively delphic in his more recent pronouncements. Not yet jumping ship, but close to the lifeboats.
 
The evidence is over hundreds of thousands of years, by a multitude of studies using a variety of proxies. A consensus exists on the 1,500 year cycle. Just one example -
Near Iceland, Maureen Raymo of Boston College found the Earth was undergoing Dansgaard-Oeschger's 1,500 year climate cycles more than a million years ago. Raymo and her research team retrieved a very long sediment core from the deep sea bottom south of Iceland. As the Raymo team wrote in Nature: "Here we use sediment records of past iceberg discharge and deepwater chemistry to show that such millennial-scale oscillations in climate occurred over one million years ago.... Our results suggest that such climate instability may be a pervasive and long-term characteristic of Earth's climate...."​

M. E. Raymo et al., "Millenial-Scale Climate Instability during the Early Pleistocene Epoch," Nature, vol. 392, no. 6677, April 16, 1998, pages 699–702.

​

One example does not a consensus make, and you've chosen one from Iceland. The sort of place - right over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge - that is going to have a very noisy data record. What with all that volcanic activity that is entirely independent from any climate effects.

Nobody can resolve 1500-year cycles from a million years ago. Sorry, but there it is.

They are not Singer's cycles.

Why then the challenge to undermine and belittle "Singer's Hypothesis"? Which is apparently that there's a "cycle" that "happens" and it happens every "one or two thousand years" to an unspecified degree for no reason other than it's a "cycle" that "happens" according to some statistical analysis.

Simply defining Singer's Hypothesis is a sufficient vehicle for ridicule.
 
Would you care to be more specific here: what experiments, what hypothesis?

What Hypothesis?
The OP initial post of this thread was "Has anyone actually proved that CO2 causes global warming (going from memory, it may have slightly differed).

It was then asserted that Arrhenius in the last century asserted the "greenhouse effect", and I corrected that to reflect the "Callendar Effect". But had this been proven in any fashion? Plass 1957 seems to have been a cite, but why nothing more recent? Laboratory spectrographic measurements of the absorption of CO2 tend to prove the hypothesis that CO2 acts in the upper troposphere to form a "hot spot". But there have been no actual atmospheric experiements that acquired data from the various layers of the atmosphere, which in turn were then able to calculate the effect of CO2 and prove or disprove the initial question of OP.

What experiments?
Ground based temperature measurements have traditionally been done with a thermometer that shows min and max. This doesn't work for determining GW because you need to know the rate of rise of the temperature when the sun comes out and begins the warming process. And you need that rate of rise for the layers of the atmosphere. Then it is possible to integrate the warming of the layers of air over an entire daily cycle. That must be done not globally, but in a local area.

Satellite and ground measurements of the atmosphere do not show the trends that would be expected under the theory of CO2 warming in the tropics, which is the most important area of this effect.

A dozen autonomous Predator aircraft (I'm using these as an example that people are familiar with but there are better UAVs for this, including some that are effectively disposable) flying at 1000 meter intervals from 1,000 meters above sea level to 11,000 meters above sea level -
  • clear sky and reasonably calm weather conditions
  • equatorial region
  • over open water
Data logging temperature for several 12-20 hour periods would provide the required data set. Releasing that data set to the entire climate community would be quite interesting, and advance the discussion considerably. From the measured hotspot in the troposphere, the resulting amount of actual "greenhouse effect" could be calculated. Note that word actual.

Other experiments may be possible, this comes to mind offhand.

The CO2 hypothesis as I used the words refers to the theory that manmade CO2 emissions have caused the recent warming of the planet, and (IPCC) will have the effect of causing 2.5-6 C warming within the next theory. Generally, the CO2 hypothesis holds that man's output of CO2 is the only (Alarmist), or the major, factor in warming (IPCC).

Does that answer your question? By the way, I am quite fine with being proved wrong in any of this and will correct anything that is found that is inaccurate or unduly biased, unlike numerous other posters here who have a True Religion.
 
LOL apparently losing half the ice in the arctic is a laughably insignificant indicator.
​
We really should discuss the real world more.

We're about at the turning-point now, of course, so expect the next interesting news in a few months time.
We really should discuss the real world more.

​
Absolutely, we should. Not the fantasy worlds of AGW; in which

  • man's infernal combustion engines and industrial dooms major cities underwater after an 80 foot sea level rise
  • trillions of dollars of taxes are demanded for urgent (ineffective) action based on arguments of fear on false premises
  • there is no consensus in the scientific literature.
  • worse case scenarios of highly questionable computer models are used to produce newspaper and media headlines
Yes, we need to discuss the real world.

For a rational explanation of how the natural 1,500 year cycle can cause things like the recent warming, and the recent melting of arctic ice, here is an interesting 10 minute video clip (and transcript) of Singer and Avery being interviewed on TV.

http://www.eenews.net/tv/transcript/503

Here is a link to Rigor's Polar Science Page, with a fascinating animation of arctic sea ice, and his published articles.

http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/
 

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