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Global warming

There will come a day - I have to believe - when you'll remove those items from your signature line. You'll be red-faced about it - and then you'll turn Green. And we'll welcome you, because the world needs as many folks who care about the future of humankind as we can get. The door is always open, you just c'mon in.

In the meantime get to it and read that August 2007 issue of Scientific American, the 10-page article starting on page 64. Promise? It's a start, and you've got a lot of work to do...

I'll be happy to read anything that you can link to on the web or as a pdf, but I'm not going to specially go out and get the issue to read the article. We've got thousands of articles on line, and commonly link to them and download them, etc.
 
You may not believe this (since it seem that you haven't followed this thread) but I do support whatever it takes to reduce fossil fuel emissions. But that's due to their polluting effect on human beings and the benfic effects it would have reducing dependency on hostile regimens, not fear about an inminent disaster.
What you advocated (more nuclear plans, research of alternatives to oil and so on) are OK for me. What's not ok is the science you call settled. It's not settled AFAICS, as seem in many Peer reviewed studies I posted in eralier pages here.
 
It's interesting.....you know, Intelligent Desing also relies in natural selection for development of most characteristics of specia. And it will be hard to sell that negating ID will mess natural selection.
You, on the other hand..............

You seem to have the thing entirely upside-down. And/or possibly sideways. Hard to tell. I'm kinda thrown by the introduction of ID.

ID has nothing to do with natural selection, it just concedes it as an extra. Natural selection would sail blithely on if ID fell under a bus tomorrow. Yeah, I can mix metaphor with the best of them. And I'm mustard at analogy, which you ain't.

Your contribution is specious. If AGW falls, greenhouse theory falls; if greenhouse theory falls, so does quantum physics and spectroscopy (thank you, mhaze). As to astrophysics, best not go there,eh?
 
On October 12, 2006, Peiser admitted that only one of the research papers he used in his study refuted the scientific consensus on climate change, and that study was NOT peer-reviewed and was published by American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

Well it does look like Peiser has revised his views, although I still see some significance to the fact that just 13 abstracts (less than 2%) *explicitly* endorsed what Oreskes said was the 'consensus view.' The vast majority of abstracts do not deal with or mention anthropogenic global warming at all.

And what about Dennis Bray's internet study? Nothing to say about that at all? You have to admit that direct polling of climatologists is more interesting than just sampling papers.

And what about reports like these:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/20/opinion/edjacoby.php "August 20, 2007 ... snip ... Scientists and other "serious people" who question the global warming disaster narrative are not hard to find. Last year 60 of them sent a letter to Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, urging him to undertake "a proper assessment of recent developments in climate science" and disputing the contention that "a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause." The letter cautioned that "observational evidence does not support today's computer climate models" and warned that since the study of climate change is relatively new, "it may be many years yet before we properly understand the earth's climate system." Among those signing the letter to Harper were Fred Singer, the former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service; Ian Clark, hydrogeology and paleoclimatology specialist at the University of Ottawa; Hendrik Tennekes, the former director of research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton; the University of Alabama's Roy Spencer, formerly senior scientist in climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, plus 55 other specialists in climate science and related disciplines."

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/...l?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4 "June 20, 2007 ... snip ... It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada. ... snip ... R. Timothy Patterson is professor and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton University.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA177.html "Another survey, conducted by American Viewpoint for Citizens for a Sound Economy, found that, by a margin of 44% to 17%, state climatologists believe that global warming is largely a natural phenomenon. The survey further found that 58% of the climatologists disagreed with President Clinton's assertion that "the overwhelming balance of evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but now fact, that global warming is for real," while only 36% agreed with the assertion. Thirty-six of the nation's 48 official state climatologists participated in the survey."

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/m...limate_scientists_the_debate_is_not_over.html " “Consensus”? What “Consensus”?Among Climate Scientists, The Debate Is Not Over, Written by Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, Thursday, 19 July 2007"

I still find the complete dismissal of the dissenting opinion troubling and indicative of an agenda driven group (at least, no less an agenda than the petroleum industry). Let me see what you have to say about the questions I asked earlier:

How serious can it be if over the 20,000 years prior to today, the average loss in ice mass in Antarctica was equivalent to a 0.5 mm increase in the sea level each year ... more than the 0.4 mm increase claimed using the GRACE data? How serious could the loss of ice be if it's going to take 750 years to raise the sea level one foot.

And what about the huge uncertainty in that estimate? There are uncertainties in that estimate because to make it they had to make assumptions. Will you acknowledge those uncertainties?

A second even more recent study that I referenced claims satellite data shows an overall loss of ice so small that it would take 3800 years to raise the sea level even one foot. If true, is that something to get excited about and pass draconian tax legislation crippling our economy RIGHT NOW???

And finally, will you apologize for Al Gore and the global walarmists who had claimed antarctic ice was decreasing even at a time when study after study said the opposite?
 
Your contribution is specious. If AGW falls, greenhouse theory falls; if greenhouse theory falls, so does quantum physics and spectroscopy (thank you, mhaze). As to astrophysics, best not go there,eh?

Okay, if AGW falls, the entire world comes tumbling down.

But that's okay because then it's a nice world with no AGW!:)
 
You may not believe this (since it seem that you haven't followed this thread) but I do support whatever it takes to reduce fossil fuel emissions. But that's due to their polluting effect on human beings and the benfic effects it would have reducing dependency on hostile regimens, not fear about an inminent disaster.
What you advocated (more nuclear plans, research of alternatives to oil and so on) are OK for me. What's not ok is the science you call settled. It's not settled AFAICS, as seem in many Peer reviewed studies I posted in eralier pages here.

LR, I assume your post was in response to Conspir, but let me second all that.

Conspir, being a Greenpeace contributer, will probably be utterly opposed to the nukes of course.
 
Obviously, the thread is not about politics, and even if it were I am not sure I see obvious connections. Moreover, GW is a world-thing, not a US thing, right? China has already overtaken the US on GHG emissions, not even counting their one coal plant going into service every four days; Jakarta has (if I recall the number right) GHG emissions from all the 2 cycle motorbikes equal to 6 billion SUVS; etc.

For some rather technical reasons I agree with you about the rain forest issues. The best evidence I have seen indicates that forests are worthless for sinking carbon; the exception is tropical forests (actually there is a latitude band for this) and these sink about 3x what they source.

The reason Exxon was being discussed was because there was apparently an organized media campaign -

216 "regular starburst media campaign, eh?"
221 "Why exxon may have been anti-Kyoto"
228 "why Exxon is the good guys"
353 "Newsweek editor apology"

that brought back up the "Exxon funding anti-AGW conspiracy theory" as first promulgated by Greenpeace/Exxonsecrets.org, later by UCS. This campaign emerged right before the disclosure of the data errors in the NASA climate numbers by Steve McIntyre on 8-10-07.

It was the same old conspiracy theory that had already been discredited. And Exxon had given $100M to Stanford for climate research. So they were not the bad guys they had been depicted.

Post 353, the Newsweek editor concurred. I'm open to change my opinion on Exxon if you have any actual new evidence to consider. Otherwise, I consider this a closed issue. To me Exxon is just a company traded on the stock exchange and a gas station down the street.

Also please note that if carbon sequestreration plants are needed in the future, it will be a small group of heavy industry companies that build them. Basically, those will be built by the same companies that build powerplants. Not necessarily Exxon, but cohorts of them; and yes, Exxon could easily be involved. Same logic applies for nuclear powerplants - same heavy industry companies.

It's those heavy industry companies that can build the equipment that is a technological way out of any AGW problem that may be believed to be critical enough to require actions.

By contrast simple calculations shows that "behavior change", and "carbon neutral footprints" make negligible differences. I'm not convinced there is or will be a significant AGW impact, but that's another issue entirely.

There seem to be a lot of people who think GW, and AGW particularly, is a crisis that will flood New York, Florida, etc., within a few decades. This is misinformation. It's pretty easy to back up this up with facts.

That has been also discussed at length here, there are various opinions on it of course. I'm defining "alarmism" as say, someone who takes the worst case scenario computed by the IPCC in their computer models for a 1000 year time frame and who asserts that that will happen within a few decades, not the 1000 year timeframe, and who conveniently forgets to mention that it was the computation of the "worst case scenario".

Don't you think that people should be informed of the facts?
Hi mhaze -

Just a few things because I've been up and down on this global warming issue ad nauseum. If not in this thread - many others. If not in this forum - others. And that's just the Internet.

This is a piece that caught my eye several weeks ago:
http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=284392

And IF ExxonMobil is now bending to pressure and backing off on denial - good. I'm for that. They've got a lot to answer for, and reversing course is quite effective.

Yes, people should be informed of the facts, as best we know them. No alarmism that is off the charts. No need. We're really talking about point of view of the observer here. How far back should we step? If NYC, for example, will be underwater in 1000 years, should we worry about it today? I think we should, but others may not. I'm less concerned about that scenario because there is so much to be concerned about this century, with AGW and its effects. The effects the young ones will see.

This is extremely tough to sell. I know that. How do you sell people on the notion of what MIGHT happen? And if our actions do head off bad effects of AGW, how do you prove that? Tough. You'll always have people saying that things would have worked themselves out anyway. This is projection science, partly. We can see some concrete effects, but many projected effects are shrouded in uncertainty. It's like betting on whether you should leave town, or not, with a hurricane coming to visit. It's like building an asteroid-deflection system - but then no asteroid comes to threaten the Earth. Would it be wasted effort to build the deflector? In my view - NOPE. Therefore I say we proceed as if AGW will negatively affect us, generally, if allowed to continue unchecked. That's what the preponderance of our current science tells us. Let's go with it.
 
You misused the word "waiving".

Don't tell me to join in. I joined JREF 10 years ago. And have been following the world of science a helluva lot longer than have you.

YOU do the work if you actually care about understanding just how we humans have been fouling our own nest concerning this particular issue of accelerated warming of the planet due to our activities. I've already done it. And I wouldn't even presume to point you to links, because how you conduct your research to discover the truth about AGW is your affair.

Okay I'll do this: There's a magazine called Scientific American, ever heard of it? Get the August 2007 issue. Go to page 64. Read that 10-page article entitled:

The Physical Science Behind Climate Change: Why are climatologists so highly confident that human activities are dangerously warming the Earth?

Wanna guess why I'm passionate about this? Why a sample of righteous indignation at deliberate ignorance is just exactly what is called for? Give up? A huge reason is my 7 nieces and nephews. Now I actually care a great deal about the preservation of humanity, collectively, but sometimes that's not quite personal enough. Kin - that's personal. My nieces and nephews (and if I ever do have kiddies of my own) are going to see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summertime, by about 2040 or 2050. And maybe sooner. That will speed the warming. They are going to see the scramble for freshwater. They are going to see the havoc wreaked by extremes of weather. They are going to see the disruption in the world of agriculture, a tenuous food supply. They're going to see the leading edge of coastal cities being affected by a rising ocean level. They'll see diseases that used to be isolated in the deep tropics move across the planet, infecting millions.

You've been following science longer than me? Hmm, an interesting statement. Where were you in 1970?

It's the same meaningless garble. Long speeches, no substantiating evidence along with the predictable political haranguing, logical fallacies and prophetic utterances.

I am not interested in magazine articles or opinions of scientists. We've been hearing over and over of the mountains of evidence supporting the CO2 hypothesis, yet the science behind it has yet to cited.

If you've done this before it shouldn't be a problem and if it's undeniable, certainly if CO2 is the main driver of climate, you can point us to the specific evidence supporting that hypothesis.

Melting ice, warming of earth, rising sea levels, all of which are well within natural variation, are not evidence for AGW. Appeal to Authority, news headlines, polar bears, inventing new terminology, ignoring contrary research, ad hom attacks, cutting trees down, and climate models using preconceived conclusions and fitting/manipulating data to those conclusions are not evidence for AGW either.

That models (i.e. IPCC) exclude several factors (e.g. cloud cover, precipitation, solar) in their conclusions whether purposely, the inability due to complexity or for lack of knowledge, climate models (the Holy Writ of AGW) are in essence the numerical expression of the opinions of the programmer are they not? And since observational evidence does not support climate models, hence the AGW hypothesis, what basis do you have to make such statements?

Is it your position climate models are indeed reliable? Provide the evidence.

If you can provide direct evidence explaining how CO2 drives climate, feel free to do so.
 
Come to think of it...

would you like your reading list now, later or bit by bit?:jaw-dropp
Hey mhaze -

You'll hate me because I'm a member of Greenpeace, but here goes:
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/

And I typically make at least one daily visit to this site:
http://www.environmentalhealthnews.org/

I regularly visit the Scientific American page, but also get the mag:
http://www.sciam.com/

I've been a subscriber to essentially every science type magazine at one time or another, and have found, over the years, Scientific American to be the best of the lot. Lots of honing, believe me.

I'm a subscriber to Skeptics magazine, and visit their site:
http://www.skeptics.com/

I joined JREF just as soon as I found out that J. Randi had established it. Had to wait, actually wanted it to happen sooner than 1996.

Science is my thing. Well, one of them. I have many things. I've been heavily into it for more than 25 years. But I am NOT a scientist, and apparently won't be. No time for the schooling...
 
Hi mhaze -

Just a few things because I've been up and down on this global warming issue ad nauseum. If not in this thread - many others. If not in this forum - others. And that's just the Internet.

This is a piece that caught my eye several weeks ago:
http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=284392

And IF ExxonMobil is now bending to pressure and backing off on denial - good. I'm for that. They've got a lot to answer for, and reversing course is quite effective.

Yes, that was one of the ones in the media blitz I mentioned.

Yes, people should be informed of the facts, as best we know them. No alarmism that is off the charts. No need. We're really talking about point of view of the observer here. How far back should we step? If NYC, for example, will be underwater in 1000 years, should we worry about it today? I think we should, but others may not. I'm less concerned about that scenario because there is so much to be concerned about this century, with AGW and its effects. The effects the young ones will see.

This is extremely tough to sell. I know that. How do you sell people on the notion of what MIGHT happen? And if our actions do head off bad effects of AGW, how do you prove that? Tough. You'll always have people saying that things would have worked themselves out anyway. This is projection science, partly. We can see some concrete effects, but many projected effects are shrouded in uncertainty. It's like betting on whether you should leave town, or not, with a hurricane coming to visit. It's like building an asteroid-deflection system - but then no asteroid comes to threaten the Earth. Would it be wasted effort to build the deflector? In my view - NOPE. Therefore I say we proceed as if AGW will negatively affect us, generally, if allowed to continue unchecked. That's what the preponderance of our current science tells us. Let's go with it.

Sounds like we are pretty much in agreement on the risk analysis. Post 333 Armstrong's analysis and 411 Nordhaus are relevant to risk analysis of future scenarios.

I would be curious as to your opinion of these articles. The basic documents referenced would be IPCC Chapter 8 and the Summary for Policymakers.
 
If you can provide direct evidence explaining how CO2 drives climate, feel free to do so.
Psst. Hey guess what.

The planet Venus (Earth's "twin") has an atmosphere that is about 95% CO2.

Estimates are that the surface temperature on Venus is about 900 degrees Fahrenheit, thereabouts.

Estimates are that atmospheric pressure is 90 times greater than Earth's. So that would be roughly like me lying on my side, and then somebody very gently places a 16-ton weight on the side of my head.

Would you say that CO2 drives climate?
 
Excellent stuff, CD. I'm a boomer myself, '57. And I've had no kiddies but won't say that I never will. Probably won't. If I meet that right woman? Who can say.

If I breed, there's a clinic on Goodge Street that's gonna get sued witless. Trust me on that, I know some lawyers socially and the paperwork's been peer-reviewed.

But I do have the offspring of my brothers and sisters and I absolutely don't want them to suffer. We were discussing AGW when I visited them and the 10-year-old girl said: "Why? Why are they doing that?". I really had no good answer. How do you tell a 10-year-old that things may get worse for her because of greed, power, deception?

At our age, there's the offspring of old friends to care about as well.

My mother was ten in 1939, my father nine; how did their elders explain what "a State of War with Germany" meant? Just putting things in perspective here :) .

To my mind, there's nothing wrong with promoting cynicism in the young, judiciously. They get the point very quickly, at any age. It's a tricky path; you don't want to take the magic and idealism away, but you want them to be wary at all times.

Kin just personalizes it. In reality - I don't want anybody to lose because of this. Not a single person - or animal or plant, for that matter.

Me neither, but waddaya gonna do? The best for your kith and kin, because that's the best you can do in reality. It angers me, at a deep level, that there will be no justice involved in what happens. But I'm into both history and science, so I've become inured to injustice. I just try not to be part of the problem. Pity the young whipper-snapper that blames me for not being part of the solution.
 
Yes, that was one of the ones in the media blitz I mentioned.

Sounds like we are pretty much in agreement on the risk analysis. Post 333 Armstrong's analysis and 411 Nordhaus are relevant to risk analysis of future scenarios.

I would be curious as to your opinion of these articles. The basic documents referenced would be IPCC Chapter 8 and the Summary for Policymakers.
Hi mhaze -

You'll notice that I tend to speak of this issue more in concept, than point for point. My preference is to cast a wide net, gather info, analyze, gather info, think, adjust, cast another net, analyze and so forth. It's why I don't do a lot of links. Screw links. I show you my link that backs up a particular point, you show me one backing up yours. It becomes tedious. I've been following global warming for years, before the Internet, and it's the main reason for my deep disappointment at Gore not getting the Prez Job in 2000. I knew we needed someone dialed into this stuff. But what I wanted, and what happened, were chasms apart. And we've lost about 8 years trying to get ahold of this thing.

I just wrote a Western screenplay. But I first purchased 8 books on various aspects of the Old West. I did go to some Internet links. Then I went out west, visited, interviewed, took pictures. Basically I cast a very wide net on this subject and pulled everything in. At some point, I was ready to write and it took me only 3 weeks to complete the actual writing of the script. It almost wrote itself. It's how I do things. Next screenplay, same routine. I'm in the info gathering and analysis phase and will be for quite some time. I'll get everything I can, from different angles. That's how I like to do science too. My conclusions about AGW are not haphazard.
 
Hi mhaze -

You'll notice that I tend to speak of this issue more in concept, than point for point. My preference is to cast a wide net, gather info, analyze, gather info, think, adjust, cast another net, analyze and so forth. It's why I don't do a lot

My conclusions about AGW are not haphazard.

Fine. let me guess.

2035 The Northwest Passage
Standoff Between Finland and Canada Could Escalate
My conclusions about it not happening are not haphazard.
But it's a good plot basis.
 
Psst. Hey guess what.

The planet Venus (Earth's "twin") has an atmosphere that is about 95% CO2.

Estimates are that the surface temperature on Venus is about 900 degrees Fahrenheit, thereabouts.

Estimates are that atmospheric pressure is 90 times greater than Earth's. So that would be roughly like me lying on my side, and then somebody very gently places a 16-ton weight on the side of my head.

Would you say that CO2 drives climate?

Nice point!

Whaaaw Whaaan, I want a cite for the science behind CO2 causing climate change.

Hey, any freshman astronomy text that discusses planetary weather of the solar system will do.

Get thee to your local library, we are not here to spoon feed you.

You must feed your head!

Only the first comment was for you craider!
 

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