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Threatening Petroeuro?

I guess you didn't get the point. They could invest into european stocks and buy large amounts of "real estate-Shares", "Medic-Shares" and "Software-Shares" - for example. I don't know what exactly the could do. We're speculating here since no one can predict when the Dollar will collapse and for what reasons. But it surely would be the end of the America you and me know.

You didn't get the reality.

Dollars don't just evaporate, someone will have to accept them when selling things to China. On top of that, China will have to first convert those dollars to Euros in order to invest in European stock markets. So someone will have to sell China Euros for dollars. Who do you think that will be?
 
The article says that Iran is threatening to stop trading in Dollars because of current US policies. If this is true, wouldn't it be economically advantageous for the US to reduce the pressure on Iran? How do you conclude that there is an economic incentive for the US to maintain its current hardline stance in the international arena?


I see you get closer to what you formerly called "I don't believe it".
What if the US loves the current course of Iran to annoy them economically - because this and the Nuclear Program (The "official" threat) would allow them to do the same as they did in Iraq:

Invade the country and switch back to the Petro-Dollar.

That's what happened in Iraq. (No woo here):
Saddam switched to Petro-Euro in 2000:

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begrün...itische_und_wirtschaftliche_Hintergr.C3.BCnde
Auch die Absicht Saddam Husseins, künftig nur noch den Euro anstelle des Dollars als Zahlungsmittel für Öllieferungen zu akzeptieren, soll nach der Petrodollar-Theorie maßgeblich die Kriegsentscheidung beeinflusst haben. Wären andere Länder diesem Beispiel gefolgt, so hätte dies fatale Konsequenzen für die USA gehabt. Im Mai 2003, nach dem Sieg der USA, verabschiedete die OPEC einen förmlichen Beschluss, die Ölrechnungen auch zukünftig in Dollar abzurechnen.

Source: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begrün...itische_und_wirtschaftliche_Hintergr.C3.BCnde

 
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You didn't get the reality.

Dollars don't just evaporate, someone will have to accept them when selling things to China. On top of that, China will have to first convert those dollars to Euros in order to invest in European stock markets. So someone will have to sell China Euros for dollars. Who do you think that will be?


I don't think that you have to change your money first to invest in the Euro-Market. But quite frankly - I'm not familiar with that and if this would be the share-buyers problem.

And concerning accepting them: Why wouldn't the Rice-Market (for example) accept the money to sell their Rice-shares? If the Shareholder makes profit, why should he care who buys the Shares?
 
I see you get closer to what you formerly called "I don't believe it".

I need evidence to believe in something.

What if the US loves the current course of Iran to annoy them economically - because this and the Nuclear Program (The "official" threat) would allow them to do the same as they did in Iraq:

Invade the country and switch back to the Petro-Dollar.

So, you're saying that the US is trying to provoke Iran into an action that will hurt the US economically, so that they in turn can invade Iran in order to remedy the situation they themselves brought about. What's missing, though, is the real motivation to invade Iran. Think it through: If the economical threats by Iran are provoked by the US in order to have an excuse for invading, then the real reason must lie elsewhere. Correct?

That's what happened in Iraq. (No woo here):
Saddam switched to Petro-Euro in 2000:

Again, if you think this does in any way constitute news you are mistaken. Yes, Iraq switched to trading oil in Euros in an economically irrational move to try and hurt the US. It didn't exactly bring the US economy down though.
 
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I don't think that you have to change your money first to invest in the Euro-Market. But quite frankly - I'm not familiar with that and if this would be the share-buyers problem.
Can you buy goods with dollars in your neighborhood?
And concerning accepting them: Why wouldn't the Rice-Market (for example) accept the money to sell their Rice-shares? If the Shareholder makes profit, why should he care who buys the Shares?
It's not a matter of who it's a matter of with what.
 
No, I think you didn't get the point. Money is a bit like energy: it isn't simply destroyed and has to go somewhere. If China buys stocks or real estate or whatever in Europe and pays in Dollars, then that also means that Europe buys Dollars and pays in stocks or real estate or whatever.


And? Is this Chinas problem what others do with their former dollars? I doubt that.
 
Can you buy goods with dollars in your neighborhood?

It's not a matter of who it's a matter of with what.


Seriously - I don't know all the possibilities to get rid of their Dollars. They could simply buy Oil from the Saudis because they only accept dollars for their oil.

Maybe there are thousands of ways to get rid of it but I'm no Oil-billionaire or something - but still learning about this complex issue.

@Tailgater: Opec "Petro-Dollar"-Oil might also be a good way for China, wouldn't it?
 
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Invade the country and switch back to the Petro-Dollar.

Oh and thanks for making a testable prediction: If Iran switches to trading oil in Euros, the USA is going to invade. Is that OK with you?
 
Seriously - I don't know all the possibilities to get rid of their Dollars. They could simply buy Oil from the Saudis because they only accept dollars for their oil.

Maybe there are thousands of ways to get rid of it but I'm no Oil-billionaire or something - but still learning about this complex issue.

Once again you ran around the point.

Answer my question, I'm trying to explain things to you: Can you buy goods with dollars in your neighborhood?
 
Again, if you think this does in any way constitute news you are mistaken. Yes, Iraq switched to trading oil in Euros in an economically irrational move to try and hurt the US. It didn't exactly bring the US economy down though.

That's something I was trying to get across earlier, but I guess it didn't sink in. It would take a lot more than one or even two countries going to euros to make an impact.
 
Oh and thanks for making a testable prediction: If Iran switches to trading oil in Euros, the USA is going to invade. Is that OK with you?


The Iranians are already getting rid of their dollars. This isn't an "if"-question.

And no - I wouldn't be okay with an invasion in Iran if it would be for this reason: "We have to stay in Power - no matter what".

But if this would be a reason for an Invasion in contrast to the imaginary "Mushroom-Cloud -Propaganda" Iran allegedly poses for the world (which world?), it would at least an understandable reason for the US.
 
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Maybe there are thousands of ways to get rid of it but I'm no Oil-billionaire or something - but still learning about this complex issue.

The basic principles are actually not that complex. You are correct, there are probably thousands of ways to get rid of their Dollars. The problem is that throwing Dollars on the market would devalue the Dollar, which in turn means you need more Dollars to buy something. China would get less bang for the buck.
 
No, I think you didn't get the point. Money is a bit like energy: it isn't simply destroyed and has to go somewhere. If China buys stocks or real estate or whatever in Europe and pays in Dollars, then that also means that Europe buys Dollars and pays in stocks or real estate or whatever.
I think that Oliver misses what happens when someone dumps a commodity. Someone has to want it to get it in trade, or one is stuck holding it.

If China starts dumping dollars, the market will notice and a number of other events will take place, the first being a predictable lowering of dollar's relative value. This makes each successive dollar dumped as being able to get less stock or oil or euros or gold or coffee or tin ore, as it puts the seller in a position of relative advantage: since he sees China dumping, he tries to get more dollars as a hedge against devaluation.

Another effect, depending on the level of "valuation" drop, is that US foreign trade balance changes. Foreign goods become marginally or greatly more expensive. American products/grain/beer/cigarettes become cheaper. US foreign trade surplus rather than deficit.

On the other hand, domestically more dollars stay home. General purchasing of domestic goods look to increase, but there's a hidden problem of inflation or deflation, suddenly, which has the follow on effect of loss of consumer confidence and a recession, or worse, setting in.

And more.

Oliver is looking at single cause and effect chains, where it's a whole lot more complex than that. If China dumps about 1/3 of its dollars and the value drops, the 2/3 China has left start to feel pretty worthless, given their having caused a drop in relative value.

DR
 
The Iranians are already getting rid of their dollars. This isn't an "if"-question.

Great! So when is the US going to invade? Remember, you said previously that they would use this as a reason to invade.

And no - I wouldn't be okay with an invasion for Iran if it would be for this reason: "Stay in Power - no matter what".

Please try a bit harder to make sense of my posts. I didn't expect you to be OK with the invasion. I asked if you are OK with the prediction as I formulated it.
 
I think that Oliver misses what happens when someone dumps a commodity. Someone has to want it to get it in trade, or one is stuck holding it.

If China starts dumping dollars, the market will notice and a number of other events will take place, the first being a predictable lowering of dollar's relative value. This makes each successive dollar dumped as being able to get less stock or oil or euros or gold or coffee or tin ore, as it puts the seller in a position of relative advantage: since he sees China dumping, he tries to get more dollars as a hedge against devaluation.

Another effect, depending on the level of "valuation" drop, is that US foreign trade balance changes. Foreign goods become marginally or greatly more expensive. American products/grain/beer/cigarettes become cheaper. US foreign trade surplus rather than deficit.

On the other hand, domestically more dollars stay home. General purchasing of domestic goods look to increase, but there's a hidden problem of inflation or deflation, suddenly, which has the follow on effect of loss of consumer confidence and a recession, or worse, setting in.

And more.

Oliver is looking at single cause and effect chains, where it's a whole lot more complex than that. If China dumps about 1/3 of its dollars and the value drops, the 2/3 China has left start to feel pretty worthless, given their having caused a drop in relative value.

DR


And? What if China can afford it to have 2/3 of it's dollar stock being worthless?

Let's do the math here:

Right now, China buys 7.6 million bpd (Barrels of Oil per day)

How much money is 7.6 million barrels per day.
(I have to look up the current price...)

And they own about a Trillion Dollars. How long would it take to dump their dollars by buying their oil in Dollars, for example?
 
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Yes, post #69 (sweeeeet) touches on that.

That was in response to DR post, thread moved on me.
 
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And? What if China can afford it to have 2/3 of it's dollar stock being worthless?
You mean if in your hypothetical China is electing to commit economic suicide on a global scale? Well there will probably be a recession if not worse on, once again, a global scale.
 
This site says the Barrel Price is about 75 Dollars per Barrel.

75$ * 7.600.000 Barrels = 570,000,000 $
 
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And? What if China can afford it to have 2/3 of it's dollar stock being worthless?

Let's do the math here:

Right now, China buys 7.6 million bpd (Barrels of Oil per day)

How much money is 7.6 million barrels per day.
(I have to look up the current price...)

And they own about a Trillion Dollars. How long would it take to dump their dollars by buying their oil in Dollars, for example?
Did I did the math right? Because as far my math goes, they could dump their dollar-reserves in two days. Am I right here?
No, not even close. Don't ever offer to help me balance a budget. ;)

If you posit 70 dollars per barrel, 532 million dollars per day, it takes about 1800-2000 days to do that, during which time the price of oil can fluctuate considerably, and may if the dumping has any influence on price. (Not sure it would, but it might.) You forgot about the billions. Two days gets you a bit over a billion, a thousand billion is a Trillion. A bit under two thousand days, or about 5-6 years, if oil was the only way to dump dollars.

Then, whoever sold them that oil now has dollars. Dollars possibly worth less if China's dump drove the value down.

Now what? China has just undiversified its foreign currency holdings, and now has to pay commissions on any trade with the US, their biggest market, who work in dollars.

Does this make sense to you? Maybe it does.

Can China afford to do that?

I don't know.

DR
 
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