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What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?

Aw, shucks. How can I have a debate if everyone agrees with me? :blush:

I guess as a side question, what is everyone's favorite term to use when describing evolution/natural selection/speciation? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I try to avoid ambiguous terms such as "random", "non-random", and "chaotic" (even though I brought it up here). What do you like to use? I am always happy to add new ways of wording things to my vocabulary. Fair warning though, I will plagiarize anything I especially like. :)
 
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Aw, shucks. How can I have a debate if everyone agrees with me? :blush:

It is just an effect of that disturbing avatar you had. The new one is soothing and conducive to an inner peace.

Like any good hangover, this, too, will pass.
 
Aw, shucks. How can I have a debate if everyone agrees with me? :blush:

I guess as a side question, what is everyone's favorite term to use when describing evolution/natural selection/speciation? As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I try to avoid ambiguous terms such as "random", "non-random", and "chaotic" (even though I brought it up here). What do you like to use? I am always happy to add new ways of wording things to my vocabulary. Fair warning though, I will plagiarize anything I especially like. :)

I prefer Sagan's term "preferential survival"--
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-522726029201501667

I love this clip. It's easy for anyone to understand. It's just important to distinguish the selector (natural selection) from the selected (the organisms created by DNA --which is prone to change less than perfect fidelity in copying)

I think the most common explanation is "random mutation coupled with natural selection"--but creationists have hijacked that one to say that "scientists think we got here by chance" necessitating the need to to show how natural selection is not random or to find different descriptors of the process in order to address the claims of the creationists and questions like the OP. The selected are "more random" than the selector which brings order to the "randomness." And the best way to describe this is still evolving. It will depend on what works the best in conveying understanding to the most people and what new obfuscations creatonists come up with.

And I don't think it was a debate... it was an attempt to answer the OP...but because the word random can be used to mean so many different things it ended up being a semantic argument over the word "random" instead of clarifying the answer to the OP. Clearly, the answer depends on the definition you are using for random. If his question was only about what part of evolution can't be described by a probability distribution...then I guess there is no evidence that evolution is random. But nobody seems to be using random in such a manner in any peer reviewed literature and it's too vague of a definition to apply to natural selection--hence no scientist would call natural selection random and many have even said that natural selection is non-random.
 
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Yeah...Von...when you say one enzyme is superimposed upon another... it's sort of like saying that it was planned. ...
(no I said the data, the DNA, for the two enzymes are superimposed.)
If you think that suggests something planned, then that's fine with me.:D But my statement was just an observation that the string of codons transcribing enzyme A and the string of codons transcribing enzyme B are the same codons except for where they underlap. They are, in that sense, "overlaid" or "superimposed".

You are asking whether it is reasonable to expect random mutation and natural selection to be so lucky, versus to reason that this appears teleological. This string of code that transcribes to a useful needed enzyme at the time it evolved is reasonable to one who embraces evolution. And the fact that the same code also transcribes to a totally useless enzyme, at the time, is okay if it stays neutral. But learning that this second enzyme will be needed some 600,000,000 years in the future is what appears teleological, particularly in the way it so elegantly and efficiently overlays the other code.

All the bacteria has to do is start transcription of this wonderful dual-purpose (or N-purpose where N=2, 3, how many? we don't know.) string of code at the right place to dial up the needed enzyme. But how credible is the chance happening that there would evolve this code 600,000,000 years before it was needed? [disclaimer: I have no knowledge of course when this code appeared in the bacteria's genome, but we can assume some arbitrary time T before Nylon was invented by humans, so I'll use 600,000,000 years to put it into the pre-Cambrian, which is reasonable for an era when this bacteria needed the first enzyme, perhaps.]

By the way Art'... how did you discover bulls hit ? By accident? ...or did it come from some clever mind? :)
 
By the way Art'... how did you discover bulls hit ? By accident? ...or did it come from some clever mind? :)

Penn Jillette.

In frame shift mutations...all the codons can change...not just one. And we have no idea how many times it happened before it happened to happen on nylon where a bacteria could exploit such a mutation by converting synthetic material into energy. You just don't seem to understand frame-shift mutations...that's all. And we don't know if that was the trillionth time that mutation happened or the first...evolution doesn't show us the failures...the sperm that never fertilized an egg... only the winners. If it wouldn't have happened on nylon, then we'd never know anything about that mutation or how it could help or hurt and organism and where and why. Sure, lots of stuff is in our DNA... but it only matters to evolution is so far as it enhances success of replicator that is copying it. The sperm that didn't fertilize your mothers egg could have contained a gene for flying for all we know...or digesting nylon. We have no means of assessing the probability for such a mutation... nothing is superimposed or preplanned...but sometimes "accidents" in genomes lead to greater reproductive success--and thus beget more of the "accident" that that gave rise to the "accident" possessor.
 
I guess my problem with understanding your posts is that your analogies were originally brought up in reponse to Wings' question regarding how ID addresses nylonase. You have used the analogy of how two messages (or programs, or enzymes) can be encoded, but offer no explanation of how the decoding can happen. In your "message from aliens" example, you mention a frame-shift, and then when I question it, you say it doesn't matter. For an encoded message, some decoder would have had to work to discover the frame shift. This implies the decoding process is intelligently driven.

On the other hand, with this new programming example, you say you have a "data error", well, how does that happen? Is it just some random error that luckily transforms your spreadsheet to a word processor? That to me sounds like the standard evolutionary description of a mutation. The fact that it is useful to me, implies that my finding it useful represents the natural selection process. If the data error rendered the program useless, it would quickly be uninstalled. Unless you are suggesting that the data error itself is intelligently driven to force the new program to be useful.

To go back to the original question, with nylonase, if there are two options, why and how would one get shifted to another? To me, the simple explanation would be that you are describing a random mutation and it was lucky, or beneficial, or whatever you want to call it, that this particular shift is "good" for nylonase. However, the part I can't figure out is whether you are suggesting that this mutation does follow the standard explanation of evolution (random mutation ends up being beneficial and is propagated due to natural selection), or if you are suggesting that the shift from one enzyme to another is somehow directed by an outside intelligence, as would be required in the case of the alien transmission, or a data error that can only result in a shift from spreadsheet to word processor.

Transcription errors occur frequently enough inside cells. Whether I use certain words for it, such as mutation, or error, or accident, all seem to me fair words. Selecting one word preferable over the other, I don't understand to be something that would convey anything more precise between us in communicating the concept I'm attempting.

I think some people view this transcription starting point being at point A vs at point B to be the crux of the mechanism for creating this newly, much needed, enzyme for this bacteria that finds itself needing to digest Nylon in order to survive.

But I see that issue of transcription starting point as something different. It seems to me that the formula for Nylonase was already coded and the transcription merely needs to start in the right place to dial it up.

To think otherwise appears to me to be naive. Let me convey my meaning of why it is naive with a metaphor:
I will use a palindrome as an example in my metaphor. I would use a frame shift but I'm not nearly clever enough to invent a good frame-shift here. So please give me license here for the substitution. Let's say a child sees the sentence "A man, a plan, a canal: Panama." The child notices if you start at the end of the sentence and read backward, it says the same thing (albeit you must ignore punctuation, white space, and upper/lower case). The child says to his parents, "Look Mother, Father, I've invented this wonderful thing. Look! This sentence reads the same thing forward and backward."

Analysis: the child thinks, because he discovered on his own that the palindrome reads backward the same as forward, that he invented or created the backward sentence. He thinks the forward sentence already existed, but by mutating the way he looks at it, he gets the backward sentence.

Conclusion: the child does not recognize that "amanaplanacanalpanama" was invented on purpose. Certainly the child was clever to have noticed the palindromic characteristic -- but that's all that he did. The creator of the palindrome invented it and did so long before the child discovered it.

Analogy: the codons were already in the genome to express into nylonase. The bacteria didn't invent the coding for nylonase when nylon appeared on the scene. Again, the code was ALREADY THERE. It is naive to think it evolved in 1930 when it had been there for who knows how long.

To frame shift your decoder is trivial. But to invent something that has multiple meanings depending on how you decode it, is phenomenal! To place the phenomenal event at the decoding end is naive. The phenomenal event was that the data appeared in the first place.

So when Wings asks what is the ID take on nylonase, I bring up this viewpoint that nylonase is damn hard to explain from an evolutionary perspective. I have shown how it appears to invoke consideration of the plausibility of teleology.
 
I guess my problem with understanding your posts is that your analogies were originally brought up in reponse to Wings' question regarding how ID addresses nylonase. You have used the analogy of how two messages (or programs, or enzymes) can be encoded, but offer no explanation of how the decoding can happen. In your "message from aliens" example, you mention a frame-shift, and then when I question it, you say it doesn't matter. For an encoded message, some decoder would have had to work to discover the frame shift. This implies the decoding process is intelligently driven.

On the other hand, with this new programming example, you say you have a "data error", well, how does that happen? Is it just some random error that luckily transforms your spreadsheet to a word processor? That to me sounds like the standard evolutionary description of a mutation. The fact that it is useful to me, implies that my finding it useful represents the natural selection process. If the data error rendered the program useless, it would quickly be uninstalled. Unless you are suggesting that the data error itself is intelligently driven to force the new program to be useful.

To go back to the original question, with nylonase, if there are two options, why and how would one get shifted to another? To me, the simple explanation would be that you are describing a random mutation and it was lucky, or beneficial, or whatever you want to call it, that this particular shift is "good" for nylonase. However, the part I can't figure out is whether you are suggesting that this mutation does follow the standard explanation of evolution (random mutation ends up being beneficial and is propagated due to natural selection), or if you are suggesting that the shift from one enzyme to another is somehow directed by an outside intelligence, as would be required in the case of the alien transmission, or a data error that can only result in a shift from spreadsheet to word processor.

Transcription errors occur frequently enough inside cells. Whether I use certain words for it, such as mutation, or error, or accident, all seem to me fair words. Selecting one word preferable over the other, I don't understand to be something that would convey anything more precise between us in communicating the concept I'm attempting.

I think some people view this transcription starting point being at point A vs at point B to be the crux of the mechanism for creating this newly, much needed, enzyme for this bacteria that finds itself needing to digest Nylon in order to survive.

But I see that issue of transcription starting point as something different. It seems to me that the formula for Nylonase was already coded and the transcription merely needs to start in the right place to dial it up.

To think otherwise appears to me to be naive. Let me convey my meaning of why it is naive with a metaphor:
I will use a palindrome as an example in my metaphor. I would use a frame shift but I'm not nearly clever enough to invent a good frame-shift here. So please give me license for the substitution. Let's say a child sees the sentence "A man, a plan, a canal: Panama." The child notices if you start at the end of the sentence and read backward, it says the same thing (albeit you must ignore punctuation, white space, and upper/lower case). The child says to his parents, "Look Mother, Father, I've invented this wonderful thing. Look! This sentence reads the same thing forward and backward."

Analysis: the child thinks, because he discovered on his own that the palindrome reads backward the same as forward, that he invented or created the backward sentence. He thinks the forward sentence already existed, but by mutating the way he looks at it, he gets the backward sentence.

Conclusion: the child does not recognize that "amanaplanacanalpanama" was invented on purpose. Certainly the child was clever to have noticed the palindromic characteristic -- but that's all that he did. The creator of the palindrome invented it and did so long before the child discovered it.

Analogy: the codons were already in the genome to express into nylonase. The bacteria didn't invent the coding for nylonase when nylon appeared on the scene. Again, the code was ALREADY THERE. It is naive to think it evolved in 1930 when it had been there for who knows how long.

To frame shift your decoder is trivial. But to invent something that has multiple meanings depending on how you decode it, is phenomenal! To place the phenomenal event at the decoding end is naive. The phenomenal event was that the data appeared in the first place.

So when Wings asks what is the ID take on nylonase, I bring up this viewpoint that nylonase is damn hard to explain from an evolutionary perspective. I have shown how it appears to invoke consideration of the plausibility of teleology.
 
If you go back over my posts you will see that I have basically been arguing this point.

As such it rather puts a dent in the argument being made by people here who want to call evolution random as randomness does not have to represent a fundamentally different type of thing (that is to say one can explain the acausal causally and vice-versa - there is no more descriptive power in either one).

I don't see them getting that point of course.
I jumped in and didn't read much of this thread, so I'm sorry if I re-stated something on which you had already made a good argument, without acknowledging it.

Anyway, I agree that no consensus will be forthcoming in this thread on "what is randomness". Not just the fault of this thread, but due the general incompleteness of human understanding of randomness and complexity, yes?
 
Aack... Von... you are doing that backwards thing. You think because it was there it was intended. Suppose a kid was reading every book she came across backwards...eventually she'd find something cool that wasn't intended. Most of what she read would be crap...but we'd never know of the crap... we'd see her discover something new and think her brilliant or we might think the author was sending a hidden message... Backmasking is all about that kind of fooling of people. Humans see meaning and design where this is none intended all the time. We don't know how many times the nylonase mutation appeared when it wasn't on nylon.... We don't know which synthetic polymers will be able to be digested by similar mutations or when or if it will happen. We just know that bacteria multiply like crazy and it only take one mutations to give one of these bacteria an advantage so that it thrives when others don't. We don't see the trillions of failed experiments. This is just such a common human error. Something happens after the fact and we are amazed at the odds. But in a world with the chaos of our own, it would be bizarre if coincidences didn't happen regularly...and if humans who evolved to see meaning and patterns and ask themselves how things work...didn't see design where there was none. If I say, I predict you will see the license plate GHT504 tomorrow that would be extremely unlikely. But your conjecture is like saying, "hey I just saw the license plate GHT504... what are the odds of that"? The odds are you will see all sorts of license plates in your life and confer meaning to some of them--but that is not amazing. In the millions of years of life on this planet copying itself and dividing and occasionally fusing with varying degrees of success--a winner only has to come up once to spread through a population...as in the butterfly link. The mutation was random...but the way it spread is not. It spread because the butterfly that survived the parasite spawned the generation of male butterflies with the protective mutation.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19733274

It's not that humans have an incomplete understanding of randomness and complexity--it's that we know how it can produce such amazing results. We never see the failures. We never know all the people who could have formed if a different sperm fertilized the egg. We only see the successes... and of course they look marvelous because we don't have access to the eons of failures and successes to see how miraculous that particular mutation was. But now we know why all the descendants of that butterfly will carry that mutation. Every genome is a history of that organisms ancestor's repeated successes. And speaking of amazing...AIDS is one tricky little virus that has accumulated some mutations to get itself copied much faster than the measly nylonase mutation. Amazing? Part of a design? No, nature has no feelings towards what can get copied before dying and what does not. It just ensures the best replicators beget more replicators.

And rttjc--most mutations are neutral because most of our DNA is junk that gets passed along in the genome of the most successful replicators. They don't change the information that is expressed or the reproductive success of the organisms that possess them. But a mutation that makes an organism just 1% more reproductively successful than it's peers and is autosomal dominant--will be in 100% of the population in less than 12,000 generations.

Lots of things look amazing in retrospect--but that's because we don't see all the experimental failures resulting in the successes we do see except when we look at genomes.

Because junk DNA can accumulate changes and mutations without harming the organism, they do so regularly--and it's these stretches of DNA that we use for Forensic and Paternity testing because there is much more variety in populations. Not only that, we can trace ancestry back by figuring out when and where humanity picked up these mutations...based on who has them and where and how widespread they are.

We do understand both the randomness involved and how the complexity comes about Von--it's because the best mutations get themselves multiplied exponentially. And our genomes are evidence of this. Here is an amazing fact. We have a mutation in our gene that normally makes vitamin C in mammals. Ours doesn't work. And humans, gorillas and chimps have the exact same mutation. You'd think this was harmful, right...and it is... but it isn't so bad if you eat fruit and other foods with vitamin C. And it's really not so bad if such a mutation rides along in a genome that has genes that give it a reproductive advantage. Why, it can spread widely. Is that amazing that Chimps, humans, and gorillas have this same mutation--a non-working vitamin C gene? Indicative of some grand design? Who'd have predicted this? Or is it because we share a common ancestor whose genome had plenty of advantages along with the vitamin C mutation? An ancestor who ate fruit so the mutation wasn't deleterious.

Frameshifts are happening in all kinds of cells all the time... They can give advantages or disadvantages or just be neutral in all the organisms in which they occur whether we find it amazing or not. There are a near infinite amount of cells undergoing copying and division all the time and it only takes one "lucky" mutation to drive evolution one step forward in whatever organism it is occurring in... whether it's a tumor, bacteria, dog, tree, butterfly or human being. It would be amazing if such things as nylonase didn't occur. And once a mutation occurs that allows something to digest a new food source such as nylonase...then it will spawn descendants that will evolve as well as organisms that can utilize the bacteria for it's own food or survival/reproduction purposes. Once information gets a toehold in the game of life, there's no telling how far that information will evolve and how it will effect the other organisms in it's environment. We can say for certain, however, that it will do both. And we can use such mutations for our own purposes and attempt to create other organisms that thrive off our synthetic waste.
 
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Transcription errors occur frequently enough inside cells. Whether I use certain words for it, such as mutation, or error, or accident, all seem to me fair words. Selecting one word preferable over the other, I don't understand to be something that would convey anything more precise between us in communicating the concept I'm attempting.

I think some people view this transcription starting point being at point A vs at point B to be the crux of the mechanism for creating this newly, much needed, enzyme for this bacteria that finds itself needing to digest Nylon in order to survive.

But I see that issue of transcription starting point as something different. It seems to me that the formula for Nylonase was already coded and the transcription merely needs to start in the right place to dial it up.

To think otherwise appears to me to be naive. Let me convey my meaning of why it is naive with a metaphor:
I will use a palindrome as an example in my metaphor. I would use a frame shift but I'm not nearly clever enough to invent a good frame-shift here. So please give me license for the substitution. Let's say a child sees the sentence "A man, a plan, a canal: Panama." The child notices if you start at the end of the sentence and read backward, it says the same thing (albeit you must ignore punctuation, white space, and upper/lower case). The child says to his parents, "Look Mother, Father, I've invented this wonderful thing. Look! This sentence reads the same thing forward and backward."

Analysis: the child thinks, because he discovered on his own that the palindrome reads backward the same as forward, that he invented or created the backward sentence. He thinks the forward sentence already existed, but by mutating the way he looks at it, he gets the backward sentence.

Conclusion: the child does not recognize that "amanaplanacanalpanama" was invented on purpose. Certainly the child was clever to have noticed the palindromic characteristic -- but that's all that he did. The creator of the palindrome invented it and did so long before the child discovered it.

Analogy: the codons were already in the genome to express into nylonase. The bacteria didn't invent the coding for nylonase when nylon appeared on the scene. Again, the code was ALREADY THERE. It is naive to think it evolved in 1930 when it had been there for who knows how long.

To frame shift your decoder is trivial. But to invent something that has multiple meanings depending on how you decode it, is phenomenal! To place the phenomenal event at the decoding end is naive. The phenomenal event was that the data appeared in the first place.

So when Wings asks what is the ID take on nylonase, I bring up this viewpoint that nylonase is damn hard to explain from an evolutionary perspective. I have shown how it appears to invoke consideration of the plausibility of teleology.


In all of your examples, the decoding step is not trivial. If the child cannot read a sentence in English, is does not matter at all how it was designed. It still means nothing to the child.
 
Aack... Von... you are doing that backwards thing. You think because it was there it was intended. .
Cripe, Art'. You must type as fast as I do. It's a curse! It makes it easy to say too much. Too much work for the other person to have to read.

I'm not doing the backwards thing... you are.:p

I'll have to get back to you later.... but you (not just you; ...all) don't have a clue what is randomness... but you don't know you don't know.
 
In all of your examples, the decoding step is not trivial. If the child cannot read a sentence in English, is does not matter at all how it was designed. It still means nothing to the child.
I'm not sure if you are saying the transcription of DNA to protein is what you are defining as "decoding". In the metaphor, I think I see you are talking about the intelligent decoding of reading and understanding.

Nevertheless, it appears to me you dwell on moot points. The striking thing about this nylonase thing is the coding of the information. That is what I am pointing to. To me, I'm not impressed by the frame-shift "mutation" because at the time of "mutation" there was no significant change in the DNA coding.

So I am befuddled why you dwell on this end of the whole issue. Do you deny that the coding for nylonase was already coded before the frame-shift mutation (or transcription error, whichever you prefer) happened?

If you accept that, then the coding for nylonase preceded the "selection" event, by some unknown period of time. However, this unknown period of time must be the same period of time for which the bacteria possessed the "normal" enzyme coding, since it is, after all, the same code.

As far as natural selection causing nylonase, the relationship is lost due to the effect coming BEFORE the cause. The frame shift did not write the code, it merely opened the door for this code that had been waiting for opportunity to be expressed. The code had been waiting, probably, for half a billion years.

Do I have an answer to suggest how this can be? No, I don't. But I volunteered to answer a question someone posted about how someone might answer this from the ID perspective. I've never read what the ID answer would be. I conjured this myself but I think this is pretty obvious. The causal relationship is pretty dim for making the case for frame-shift being an example of "fast evolution".

Worse (from the darwin perspective) if someone was looking for teleology in evolution, I would say this mysterious thing should be looked at. But, in fact, no one is looking for teleology in Ev.:)
 
I'm not sure if you are saying the transcription of DNA to protein is what you are defining as "decoding". In the metaphor, I think I see you are talking about the intelligent decoding of reading and understanding.


No, I am suggesting that the "decoding" as translated from your metaphor is expression in the end result, the bacteria that can consume nylonase. In other words, once natural selection has finished its job, there is a new species. This would be your a) second set of blueprints in your alien message analogy b) a fully functional word processor in your programming analogy and c) a child's comprehension of the anagram. It is the full process I am interested in, not just one step. Without the selection of the successful mutations, any mutation can either persist, or be removed within a generation. Without successful selection, it really doesn't matter how the information is packaged.

Nevertheless, it appears to me you dwell on moot points.


Then stop making poor analogies.

The striking thing about this nylonase thing is the coding of the information. That is what I am pointing to. To me, I'm not impressed by the frame-shift "mutation" because at the time of "mutation" there was no significant change in the DNA coding.


In which case I don't believe you understand the significance of a frame-shift.

So I am befuddled why you dwell on this end of the whole issue. Do you deny that the coding for nylonase was already coded before the frame-shift mutation (or transcription error, whichever you prefer) happened?

If you accept that, then the coding for nylonase preceded the "selection" event, by some unknown period of time. However, this unknown period of time must be the same period of time for which the bacteria possessed the "normal" enzyme coding, since it is, after all, the same code.

As far as natural selection causing nylonase, the relationship is lost due to the effect coming BEFORE the cause. The frame shift did not write the code, it merely opened the door for this code that had been waiting for opportunity to be expressed. The code had been waiting, probably, for half a billion years.


Ack! Do I sense a reference to mammalian ear bones and reptile jaws?

Do I have an answer to suggest how this can be? No, I don't. But I volunteered to answer a question someone posted about how someone might answer this from the ID perspective. I've never read what the ID answer would be. I conjured this myself but I think this is pretty obvious. The causal relationship is pretty dim for making the case for frame-shift being an example of "fast evolution".

Worse (from the darwin perspective) if someone was looking for teleology in evolution, I would say this mysterious thing should be looked at. But, in fact, no one is looking for teleology in Ev.:)


* Sigh *

I believe articulett addressed this better than I could.
 
By eliminating unfit genes without exception.

Actually this doesn't appear to happen when you look at the population as a whole, rather than just a sample that you have collected in the field. Rouzine and his coworkers (Rouzine and Coffin 1999, Rouzine et al 2001, Rouzine et al 2002, Rouzine and Coffin 2005) have found that, at least for simulated, haploid, asexually reproducing populations where the effective population size is larger the inverse of the mutation rate, a deleterious mutation will never completely disappear. Instead, its frequency will fluctuate around the ratio of the mutation rate and the selection coefficient.

The thing to note about this research (and please actually read it before you denounce me for misinterpreting it) is that evolution by natural selection is modeled throughout it as a stochastic process which only becomes quasi-deterministic at "sufficiently large" effective population sizes as a result of the limit behavior of the stochastic processes used to model it. Thus, while the assumption of the model may not make it a perfect match for all evolution by natural selection (and a deleterious may actually disappear form a population), it demonstrates rather conclusively that ordered behavior can arise form a random/stochastic process.
 
Cripe, Art'. You must type as fast as I do. It's a curse! It makes it easy to say too much. Too much work for the other person to have to read.

I'm not doing the backwards thing... you are.:p

I'll have to get back to you later.... but you (not just you; ...all) don't have a clue what is randomness... but you don't know you don't know.

Perhaps, but it seems to me you "intelligent design proponents" are missing how the order comes from the randomness because you only notice the "hits" and ooh and ahh over it. You are the proverbial lottery winner thinking that it was their lucky socks or their prayers or their visualization that brought them the luck and saying "what are the odds I'd win??!!??" after the fact... before the fact, the odds were astronomical that that particular person would win, but it was more likely than not that someone would win, as well. After the fact, as amazing as it is to the winner--it just reflects the way randomness works. (And the way winners almost always think it was something they did just reflects the way the human mind works.)

Evolution has something extra that lotteries don't have though--because the winner passes on the very information that aided her "winning" in the first place... often exponentially. The winner may get "chosen" at random...but it preferentially passes on its' winning combination to the next generation.

Look at the butterfly link. The mutation was random for all practical purposes. But the fact that all the males now carry that mutation most certainly is not random. That is the answer to the OP. That is what Dawkins et. al. are saying when they say selection is not random. The butterflies carry the mutation because without it they would cease to exist. Organisms are always competing to pass on the information that made them in the environment they are in just as their genes have programmed them to do--and no intelligence or thought or plan is necessary...just the algorithm that "success begets success exponentially".

Do you have a will to live? How nice... because those who have such a thing are more likely to pass on their genes including ones involved in a will to live.
 
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Thus, while the assumption of the model may not make it a perfect match for all evolution by natural selection (and a deleterious may actually disappear form a population), it demonstrates rather conclusively that ordered behavior can arise form a random/stochastic process.

The most deleterious mutations never even give rise to an organism, mijo. And it's not people who decide what is or isn't deleterious. The only "decider" is the environment and which information build replicators that copy the information in them most. Everything on the information level can be construed as "random" in that it does not "care" if it it's good for the organism or not--everything in the environment (including other organisms and natural disasters) determines which mutations stick around. Most deleterious mutations are neutral unless paired up with the same mutation which is why there are taboos against inbreeding (the more closely related you are, the more recessive mutations you'll share.) The neutral get passed along with the advantageous if they are part of a genome that successfully reproduces.

Your papers are NOT saying that natural selection is random or any synonym thereof. Your papers are show how increasing or decreasing selection pressures and increasing or decreasing population sizes drives evolution. Stronger pressures just cull more and accumulate beneficial changes more rapidly. (See butterfly example).

With a rapidly changing environment like climate change, the stuff that reproduces the fastest has more experiments going on and such genomes are likely to get a lucky adaptation that allows it's descendants to preferentially survive in the "high pressure" environment.

Your papers are most definitely not saying evolution IS random nor are they saying "there is no evidence that evolution is non-random". And just because you use stochastic as a synonym for random doesn't mean anybody with any credibility including the people you cite are doing the same. Try to find a paper saying exactly what you are saying, Mijo...the way I provided a paper explaining why natural selection is not random. Or provide one that defines random as nebulously as you do. Or admit, that random is a piss-poor way to define evolution and leads to confusion on par with the 747 from a junkyard tornado analogy.
 
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