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What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?

articulett-

You have yet to explain how I have misinterpreted the articles I have cited. It would be a lot easier for me to take you seriously if you didn't dismiss everything I cited out of hand as my misinterpretation of the data.

And Dawkins is biased. He has stated an opinion that runs contrary to the preponderance evidence. Yes, evolution is biased toward "what works" in the environment, and yes, evolution does sort out "bad" mutations. However, if genes are truly the entities that are selected, then evolution is truly probabilistic, because not every copy of a given allele is copied into the next generation.
 
articulett-

You have yet to explain how I have misinterpreted the articles I have cited. It would be a lot easier for me to take you seriously if you didn't dismiss everything I cited out of hand as my misinterpretation of the data.

And Dawkins is biased. He has stated an opinion that runs contrary to the preponderance evidence. Yes, evolution is biased toward "what works" in the environment, and yes, evolution does sort out "bad" mutations. However, if genes are truly the entities that are selected, then evolution is truly probabilistic, because not every copy of a given allele is copied into the next generation.

Even the people you quote aren't calling Dawkins wrong. And no...the genes can only be selected if they form a proper copying machine (organism) to copy them. And I think I've explained everything to the satisfaction of all people actually interested in the topic; ...as has Dawkins. I think it's hysterical that you called him biased and wrong without having a scintilla of a clue. I'll let you play you semantic games with yourself as I stifle a giggle.
 
Even the people you quote aren't calling Dawkins wrong. And no...the genes can only be selected if they form a proper copying machine (organism) to copy them. And I think I've explained everything to the satisfaction of all people actually interested in the topic; ...as has Dawkins. I think it's hysterical that you called him biased and wrong without having a scintilla of a clue. I'll let you play you semantic games with yourself as I stifle a giggle.

You have avoided and avoided and avoided every piece of evidence that I have provided about the stochastic modeling of evolution by natural selection from the academic literature and never explained at all why you thought I was misinterpreting what they said other than that Dawkins thought otherwise when he was writing in the popular media. Furthermore, you have not provided a shred of evidence from the academic literature that any scientist thinks that evolution by natural selection is non-random, claiming instead that no scientist would say such a thing.

You have also driven people away form this thread by your stubborn refusal to see that biologists are expanding out and using "random" or at least "stochastic" in ways Dawkins wouldn't. I suggest you revise your position by actually reading and discussing the literature I have cited and taking time to explain why I am wrong, and backing it with academic citations of your own.
 
No...even the other randomites understood that evolution is a 2 part principle--one fairly random, one that selects from the randomness. You are the only one who can't get it... Even when Dawkins explains it to you. Are there any other non creationists who can watch the Dawkins tape and come to the conclusion that you did that he is wrong to say "natural selection is not random"? I'm guessing there isn't anybody. You can say evolution is so random all you want. It just is as meaningless as saying "Algebra is a random equation because it has random variables." That's not exactly untrue...but it's just so vague -- like you.

Most people want to communicate something more than that. You don't have the capability. Most people can watch the Dawkins clip and clearly discern an answer to your OP question.

Flog the creationist that made you unable to do so.
 
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Uh....no. Now you are misrepresenting what other randomites have said on the thread. Jimbob has called evolution "probabilistic" and so has Meadmaker. Schneibster has repeatedly tried to explain to that even though natural selection is biased, it is not non-random by the definition I have provided. I understand what they have said and they have told me that what I was saying was correct.

I seems that once again you haven't been reading what people write.
 
Ah, that makes it true then.

Not really. However, the fact that you have not been able to describe a criterion or set of criteria that determine whether a gene is selected or not does not bode well for selection being deterministic.

If selection is deterministic, there should be some criteria that all individuals who possess them survive while all those who don't posses them perish.
 
The smart people saw his ploy and abandoned ship early in the thread. :)

He fooled the others for a tad... but now he's all alooooone....
and as impervious as ever...
la la la ... I can't hear you....
 
The smart people saw his ploy and abandoned ship early in the thread. :)

He fooled the others for a tad... but now he's all alooooone....
and as impervious as ever...
la la la ... I can't hear you....

Actually it is more likely that people saw your own recalcitrance in the face of reason and abandoned ship. I do remember Schneibster repeatedly trying to explain to you why you were wrong and you simply not listening, getting frustrated and leaving.
 
Actually it is more likely that people saw your own recalcitrance in the face of reason and abandoned ship. I do remember Schneibster repeatedly trying to explain to you why you were wrong and you simply not listening, getting frustrated and leaving.

Actually, Scneibster thought I was saying evolution was "non-random", and after I told him that it was "natural selection" that Dawkins referred to as "non random"--and he did so in response to the creationist meaning of "random"-- I don't think he heard me say on multiple occasions that nobody (including me) was denying the random aspects....it was just uninformative to call evolution random given the ambiguity of the term and creationist obfuscation--and it left out an understanding of natural selection. I don't recall Schneibster declaring Dawkins wrong and your stochastic model or anybody else's better. But I guess you just keep hearing what you want to hear. Let me know if you find any other credible person who thinks you are more explanatory than Dawkins--because to me your explanations are about as clear as Behe's--just so obfuscating and meaningless. But still--you can call Algebra a random equation if it makes you feel good and if you feel like you are smarter than Dawkins you can keep pretending it is meaningful and clear to say evolution is random and that (giggle) "85 years of research supports this claim"--actually not...you didn't even understand Kimura...the most recent claim, and he doesn't use the term "random" to mean "related to a probability chart". DNA stuff IS pretty random--but selection is no more random than in the nozzle example. If the info. doesn't build a replicating organism it cannot be "seen" by selection. Dawkins was clear. You are not. See if you can get other people to believe your silly crap. (I think it sucks that you are dishonest to the few people who haven't caught on to your shenanigans. You just never ever say anything of value while implying all sorts of anti-science crap.)

Did your religious training teach you that?

Is there anyone else who has listened to or read Dawkins regarding natural selection who thinks he is "wrong" and Mijo is "right" or more clear or knows what the hell he's talking about? Quick Mijo---run and get your supporters....maybe they can make a better case for summing up natural selection as a "random process" without implying "scientists think this all happened by chance".
 
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If selection is deterministic, there should be some criteria that all individuals who possess them survive while all those who don't posses them perish.
Isn't this what actually happens? After some period, all individuals who have bad genes have perished, while those who remain do not have them.

Of course, a single individual may survive to reproduction even though it has been born with a less-than-optimal lung or a stiff leg, but after some generations, these will have been weeded out. Can it get more deterministic than that?

I have a loaded die that preferentially gives a six when I throw it. But it does not always give a six. Do you really believe that if somebody tells me that I have to use a die that gives random results, I can just say this die is 'random'?
 
Isn't this what actually happens? After some period, all individuals who have bad genes have perished, while those who remain do not have them.

Of course, a single individual may survive to reproduction even though it has been born with a less-than-optimal lung or a stiff leg, but after some generations, these will have been weeded out. Can it get more deterministic than that?

I have a loaded die that preferentially gives a six when I throw it. But it does not always give a six. Do you really believe that if somebody tells me that I have to use a die that gives random results, I can just say this die is 'random'?

In the clip it showed how just the smallest bias can lead to huge changes in a less than 12,000 generations (such a short time compared to how long time life has been evolving)--

And if there were any doubts--look at the variety of dogs--just tweaking wolves for 10,000 years or so--and you get Chihuahuas and Great Danes. Without DNA, you couldn't guess they were even the same species from their skeletons. And nature isn't as kind as humans with her culling of runts and rejects. Random Selection? Hardly.

I think mijo is partly (and purposely) confused, because neutral and junk DNA will hang around forever--but anything that changes the phenotype (physical organism created by the DNA) will be acted upon by the environment and either selected or not...in a continual culling (honing) of the phenotype via random tweaks to the genotype. Natural selection can't read "DNA"--it can only "see it" if it creates an organism.

Genotype is information (like a computer code or a recipe)
Phenotype is the result that is acted upon (the program or nozzle or recipe result). Random mutations in the former can only be selected if they result in beneficial changes to the latter. Natural selection can't look at the recipe and tell if it "tastes good"-- you have to actually make the food before the recipe can be selected before or against. (You can have a little bit of yucky in a recipe without changing the fact that overall it's yummy.) Mijo just jumbles all the randomness together and decides it makes sense to say "evolution is random because each part can be described by a probability distribution." Yes, there's "random crap" in DNA--but that doesn't make the selection process random.

A loaded die will "select for" a particular number and this won't be a random result, and only one interested in obfuscating would call such a result a "random result" as opposed to a "biased result" or something else more explanatory.

It's almost as if he's saying, "well you still can't predict exactly how a loaded die will land every time--so it's still random". (Remember, his definition of random is that "it can be described by a probability distribution".) So, per his definition--the dice IS "random"--but that is uninformative as to the loaded nature of the dice and purposely misleading (Or so the Gaming Control Board would say.)

You can almost hear Dawkins annoyance at the creationist obfuscation of natural selection in his speech, but when you read mijo you can understand Dawkins' frustration completely, can't you? I mean, you just cannot have a dialogue with some people. They have a mental block that shuts out everything that negates what they are saying in the slightest way. It's like his brain can only register information that allows him to say, "evolution is random, evolution is random...85 years of research says evolution is random" like a crazed parrot.
 
Actually, Scneibster thought I was saying evolution was "non-random", and after I told him that it was "natural selection" that Dawkins referred to as "non random"--and he did so in response to the creationist meaning of "random"-- I don't think he heard me say on multiple occasions that nobody (including me) was denying the random aspects....it was just uninformative to call evolution random given the ambiguity of the term and creationist obfuscation--and it left out an understanding of natural selection.
Actually, you wouldn't accept the fact that your definition of "random" is the wrong one, that you've accepted the creationists' definition of random and ignored the one that applies in this case- the scientific one. I got tired of arguing with you, because you were behaving badly. Please don't misrepresent me.
 
A loaded die will "select for" a particular number and this won't be a random result, and only one interested in obfuscating would call such a result a "random result" as opposed to a "biased result" or something else more explanatory.

It's almost as if he's saying, "well you still can't predict exactly how a loaded die will land every time--so it's still random". (Remember, his definition of random is that "it can be described by a probability distribution".) So, per his definition--the dice IS "random"--but that is uninformative as to the loaded nature of the dice and purposely misleading (Or so the Gaming Control Board would say.)

It would be even more useful to say how the die is biased, "the die follows this distribution, if it were unbiased, you would expect a binomial distribution".

If you were only allowed to look at the dice results, one could perform statistical tests to show the probability that it actually was unbiased.

My loose definition of fitnes of an orgianism is some function of its probability of offspring that themselves reproduce, and of the probable number of reproducing offspring, and divided in two for sexual reproduction.

Mijo, do you now understand why ther are "gaps" in the fossil record? given the number of fossils and the number of species it would be hard not have gaps. Again it is down to very low probabilities, fof the remains bein g fossilised, and then, of being found.

Humanity is not more evolved than slime mould. It is more complex.

Lions are not more evolved than T-rexes, indeed, given the millions of years that T-rexes had to evolve into their environment, they might have been more evolved for their environment.

I still think mijo is being sincere, although I can see now why his fossil gap OP could have been misconstrued.
 
Isn't this what actually happens? After some period, all individuals who have bad genes have perished, while those who remain do not have them.

So, to say that selection is deterministic you have to determine what question you are interested in. Do you care about "fit" vs. "non-fit", or do you care about which specific genes, from among those that are "fit" will survive.

We know that only "fit" genes will survive, but the number of "fit" genes that will survive is less than the total gene pool of "fit" genes.


I have a loaded die that preferentially gives a six when I throw it. But it does not always give a six. Do you really believe that if somebody tells me that I have to use a die that gives random results, I can just say this die is 'random'?

The context of the person telling you to roll the die will tell you whether or not it is appropriate to use a load die. In most cases, dice are specifically chosen in order to generate a uniformly distributed integer, starting at 1 and going to the number of sides on a die. However, this is not always the case. There was a series of wargames published in the 70s and 80's that used "average dice". These dice, that were called for on certain tables, had sides labeled 2,3,3,4,4,5. I'm sure that there would be people who insist that those dice weren't random, but those people would be wrong.
 
Mijo, do you now understand why ther are "gaps" in the fossil record? given the number of fossils and the number of species it would be hard not have gaps. Again it is down to very low probabilities, fof the remains bein g fossilised, and then, of being found.

Humanity is not more evolved than slime mould. It is more complex.

Lions are not more evolved than T-rexes, indeed, given the millions of years that T-rexes had to evolve into their environment, they might have been more evolved for their environment.

I still think mijo is being sincere, although I can see now why his fossil gap OP could have been misconstrued.

Yes, I understand why fossils are widely spaced in time. What my question was really about, even though it was misleadingly stated, was how evolution can be portrayed in the popular visual media as being one continuous "morph" from one form to the next when the best evidence we have would make it appear extremely choppy. I understand from the posts in the other thread that speciation can occur extremely fast (even with in a generation in the case of polyploidy), but I thought that, if we were only going the fossil evidence, the continuous "morph" representation is inaccurate. However, as I write this, I also realize that I am using a unnecessarily restricted data set and that if the representation in the popular visual media were constucted off of sound scientific reasoning I see no reason to consider them inaccurate.

Note:

I would like to point out that in the Fossil and Evolution thread:

  1. I retracted my OP
    Ben-

    Thank you for your clearly written explanation. I think that it, along with Dr. Adquate's information about the forams, clears up a lot of questions I had about evolutionary time frame. I will give a more complete explanation of my reasoning later. Suffice it to say, I retract the questions (in so far as I asked any) in my OP.

    That is not say that I do not still have problems with the way in which my question was dealt from both a pedagogical/androgogical and a general human courtesy standpoint, about both of which I will also post later.

    Nonetheless, I reiterate the apologies that I have already offered about my ill-conceived and ill-posed OP and retract what I said in it.

    Sincerely,

    Michael
  2. I explicitly stated that I believed that no aspect of life was intelligently designed.
    To answer you directly, articulett: no, I don't believe that any aspect of life was intelligently designed.

    I guess the question would be: for those of you who have taught evolution, how did you explain to your students in a comprehensible way that the seemingly large gaps between transitional forms were not in fact large at all at least in relation to the time periods over which evolutionary changes were observed to occur? Or is there something I am missing in the very definition of an evolutionary time period?
  3. articullet apologized for accusing me of being an intelligent design proponent.

    Then I apologize. I hope you read the links above so that you can see why others may be quick to judge. I hope you are as offended by the fossil article in the conservative newspaper as I was. Especially in light of the evidence regarding dinosaurs and chickens..
 
As far as I see it, mijo's understanding of evolution and natural selection is perfectly conventional, and indeed not disimilar to articulett's, especially as both agreed with my earlier post . The only issue is about the use of the word random.

I happen to prefer mijo's definition, as 1) being technically correct in mathematics, statistics, and biology. And 2) as being more useful in making predictions, and explaining why not all faster wilderbeest survive (for example).

What one uses to describe natural selection to less numerate people is a seperate issue.
 

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