EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Quite the opposite. The person or persons that are performing the randomisation part of this test should be isolated from the test area so they cannot know what canister edge has selected as the target during the test.
This setup also suits edge, since he has stipulated that the canisters should be stored 30ft from the test site anyway.
OK, I'll try to outline the process that I would have written for edge if he'd taken up my offer.
Person or persons doing the randomisation (person 1 and (added) 1a) are isolated from the test area.
Person 2 (transporter) stays near the test area.
edge and person 3 are isolated from both the test area and the randomisation area.
edge has said that the test area must be left vacant of targets for 3 or so minutes, so:
Process would be that canisters ready to be used are stored in a box with a lid. Randomiser 1 (Person 1) selects a number from 1 to 10 by some random means (balls in a bag, say). Person 1 will instruct person 1a (2nd randomiser I've just introduced and I'm going to call a Packer) to place the canister in the tin and record the order that these numbers come out for each trial.
Packer (person 1a) will also note the number of the canister and the order in which it is introduced to the test area.
After the test the records of 1 and 1a will be used to verify the number and the order that the canisters are introduced to the test area.
Person 1a, once the canister is placed in the sealed coffee "tin" will then set a kitchen time for 3mins.
When the timer alarm goes off, this will be the signal for person 2 (transporter) to come from the test site, and transport the "tin" from the randomiser area to the test site.
He'll then blow a whistle and remain at the test site.
The whistle will be the signal for person 3 (guide) to bring edge from his rest area into the test area. After edge has made his divination, persons 2 & 3 will note his selection. edge will initial each selection as they are recorded on person 3's record sheet.
After the test the records of 2 and 3 will be used to verify the selections that edge has made during the test.
edge and person 3 retire to their test area between each "pass" over the "tin".
Person 2 takes the coffee tin back to the randomising area and returns to the test area.
Person 1a will remove the canister from the "tin" and place it in a separate lidded box.
Person 1 (randomiser) will then restart the process for the next pass.
This way, the randomising team (1 & 1a) are kept separate from the test area AND edge.
Person 2 is kept separate from the RANDOMISING process and edge.
edge is kept separate from the randomising process AND the test area between passes.
All the above would have been much clearer if edge had taken up my offer to have written this up as a formal protocol - but he has declined that offer to date.
SezMe
post-pre-born
My protocol is a helluva lot simpler and easier to implement. Complete double-blinding can be done with only two people. And goes a lot quicker.
But, again, it doesn't matter because edge is not going to do a test.
But, again, it doesn't matter because edge is not going to do a test.
nathan
Zygoticly Phased
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2004
- Messages
- 3,477
Thanks -- I didn't realize that was undesired. You need each divination to take a fixed time. There's nothing to say that Edge needs to actually dowse during that time. If dowsing is physically draining to Edge, all he need do for canisters (X,10] is wait and simply say 'not the target'.
I'm not sure whether Edge's objection to dowsing all 10 cans was (a) it makes the test longer or (b) dowsing is tiring. Hm, but then, if it is tiring and Edge is expecting on average to dowse 5 canisters to reach the target:
a) he has an out, should he end up dowsing all 10, and
b) there are far too few trials for the expected average number of dowses-per-trial to be narrowly concentrated at 5.
BTW, thanks for taking the time to try and get an understandable and waterproof protocol!
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Quite true - but it doesn't test edge's claim, which is 70% success guessing 1 target hidden in 10. With the demonstration he did for you, for the MDC, he'd have to perform a minimum of 15 passes - and get 100%. And that's just for the Preliminary.
If edge agreed to that test and failed, it would merely give detractor ammunition to criticise JREF. It's in JREF's interest to test edge on the claim he makes.
Oh, time? Using the procedure above, at 10mins a pass (5mins to dowse, 3mins to "rest" the site, a couple to prepare the next sample), it would take a minimum 16hrs 40mins if done non-stop.
Not if he insists on one target at a time, unless he agrees to a test similar to your demonstration.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
His objection is reasonable and logical, actually. Why bother dowsing the rest if he's already "found" the target? It's just that by halting a trial part way through SOMEONE can determine what choices he's making - so the test is no longer double-blind. Of course if all 10 canisters were placed and he did a pass over all of them, rather than placing them one at a time, double-blinding could be maintained
I have a personal vested interest in this being under bullet-proof double-blind conditions.
Dowsing doesn't work and this would be yet another data point to support my position on dowsing
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
I agree. So does JREF - that is why they changed the Challenge to *them* pursuing public figures. This Challenge is a perfect example of why they took this route.
That said, though, edge has applied under the original rules. JREF, to maintain their integrity, are obliged to attempt to test him.
Seconded.He was all smiles and happy confidence the first time he sat the prelim, and after that rude awakening he's been somewhat more reticent about formal testing since it shows up quite glaringly how it's all in his head. If by some miracle Edge actually sits the test I fear he will only be pushed into a deeper mental feedback loop. He'll end up exploding like Captain Kirk just talked him into destroying himself with his own logic.
May I also extend congratulations to GzuzKrzyt for his exceptionally well made points. Well put sir, you are now my personal robot-killing Captain.
Now here's a fun, but cruel, way to end my protocol. After the tests are completed, unknown to edge, return his dowsing rod to him with the fake dime taped to the head of the dowsing rod and let him go on his merry way. Then tell him a couple of weeks later to check his dowsing rod.
It like N-Rays were debunked. Oh, well, one can dream.
"cruel"Why do you need to be curel?
Remember what I said take the metal away and it reads for water.
That's the flaw with you're method.
EHocking say,
What might that be?
I'm sure that JREF will be on it and have that covered?
But please answer the question?
First off every time that I make a guess the have to change the target and put it in a new canister, that happens after I make a choice and or ten targets pass the one spot, and I really don't care what the order is.
By changing the target they will know and the person with them will know where it is and if I choose correctly.
I'm not reading minds.
When I took the test in the office after scanning the ten targets JREF told me whether I choose correctly or not so you’re point is moot and besides I like to know how I am doing.
In this way the person I choose to be with the recorder will know also and there can’t be any shicanery.
By changing the target they will know and the person with them will know where it is and if I choose correctly.
I'm not reading minds.
When I took the test in the office after scanning the ten targets JREF told me whether I choose correctly or not so you’re point is moot and besides I like to know how I am doing.
In this way the person I choose to be with the recorder will know also and there can’t be any shicanery.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Read the sentence that you snipped. I explained myself in the post you are partially quoting.
edge meet irony (bordering on hypocrisy)
irony meet edge
It seems to me that having the canisters get scanned by edge in a random order would remove any information person(s) 1 could gain if the tests were halted early, thereby preserving strict double-blinding.
I'd have to disagree with the math as well. My notes show that selecting 1 of 10 for 10 trials would put the odds of a 70% correct performance by chance at .0009% (7 correct trials out of the 10). At 10 minutes per trial, it seems well within the scope of an afternoon.
I'd have to disagree with the math as well. My notes show that selecting 1 of 10 for 10 trials would put the odds of a 70% correct performance by chance at .0009% (7 correct trials out of the 10). At 10 minutes per trial, it seems well within the scope of an afternoon.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
But the number on each of the canisters will be recorded by at least one person, if not two.
If a trial is halted part way through - someone will know that edge has selected a particular numbered canister and rejected the preceding ones. It doesn't matter that they've been selected randomly, someone *will* know the results of the test before the test is concluded.
Double-blinding is not preserved.
10 passes for each trial
(remember he's doing them one by one - not sweeping over all 10 for each trial).
10 minutes per pass.
10 trials.
1000 minutes minimum.
Ladies and gentleman, we have officially entered UCR scale territory.
Entering at a solid 65, between Tim Robbins pitching in "Bull Durham" and Ed Norton dunking in "American History X": Mike "Dr. Edge" Guuuuuuuuuskaaaaaaaaa."
If you don't know Bill Simmons yet and you like reading a sports guy with a fetish for facial hair, reality shows and the WNBA who writes unpretentious and funny sports columns, give it a try.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Then it is not a double blind test and therefore YOUR protocol does not meet the conditions of the MDC and will be rejected.
{this is an edit after I checked the facts}Tough. In a double-blind test you should not get any feedback during the test. Also, this is not the same Challenge as you took previously, so will not be run in the same manner.
{update}You misremember, edge (and I'm being *very* polite here, I could have been a lot more, er, "sceptical" of your statement).
During your first MDC Preliminary trial you were not told whether you chose correctly during the test. I will put your claim that you were, down to your less than perfect memory....
For the rest - here is JREF's account of the test
edge, please note my self-control on giving you the benefit of the doubt on your recall of this test and that I have not directed any accusations of anything but poor memory...
You really don't know what a double blind protocol is, do you?
NO ONE will know whether the canister you selected is or is not the target during the duration of the ENTIRE Challenge.
This is what double-blind means: Neither you nor those testing you, know the result of the test until it's conclusion.
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There is no magic.
And you need to read how they run the test for dowsing, go back to what happened in the office and if you want please put up the link so that all of you can see what the double blind test is and how they ran it.
My choice is my choice, and that ends the round of ten, random order of the containers takes care of that.
As soon as the first ten is over they have to move the target for the next set of ten, they Will know.
If I miss the first four then what reason would JREF have to go on at that point why would they or I waste time with it and I might be in you’re camp then.
That would save a few hours then.
When they were on the ground, all ten containers, in the office I could start in any order that I choose.
It's either there or it's not.
You said save time and now you are being anal.
The people that hide the target are nowhere in my sight, only the person that JREF has stay with me is, and he has the same knowledge as I do NONE where the target is concerned.
If he sees that I haven’t cheated then he can’t either, or give me clues of any kind.
The people that record and hide the target are totally alienated from us……………
If JREF says it’s good enough then what’s your problem?
Again the only differences are the target will pass onto one spot and all of the containers empty or full.
And that I’m using a scale to aid me in my choices They will stipulate anything else they want like I have to scan all the containers.
They only want the metal picked out 7 of ten tries of ten.
If you can’t understand this, Kevin then it is you who is illiterate?
In the final I have to then get 8 of ten correct.
Because of the scales I can go to them or there can be volunteers to come here If I can set that up with the owners of the resort.
Which means I’ll be ready in September, if I go to Florida then I will be ready in October.
Man what the {****rule8} don’t you understand?
Petre says;
I agree.
May be two if I get tired and cramps in my hands and arms.
One afternoon would be great though and possible that way.
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EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
Do you actually read posts here before responding?
JREF's account of the test
Oh, and it's poor form to edit your post without saying why. I note that your original bullspit comment has been removed. Have you remembered just how the first Preliminary was run, finally?
1. I'm not Kevin.
2. I have never made any accusations of illiteracy towards you.
It seems the other metal you cannot dowse is iron
.Delusions_O_Grandeur
Unwilling Skeptic
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2007
- Messages
- 236
Even though this thread has been around for over a year I only just really noticed it. I'm probaly asking an obsolete question but I don't wish to read back 1400 posts. Did Edge double blind test himself already before applying?
I was there when it was being recorded, we all of us. I remember just fine as I seen the look in James’ eyes, it was the first pick that I made that was correct.
For the next test one of my friends will be with them so I don’t know till the end.
This is better for me.
But once again it doesn’t matter except the time but I may get 6 out of ten which means something is occurring.
But that doesn’t win the million does it?
This is what they believe will occur.
Now I know what the flaws were, all metals and magnetic fields are picked up.
After, though they will say not.
Delusions_O_Grandeur
Unwilling Skeptic
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2007
- Messages
- 236
How about carrying out the whole experiment in a cage of fine conducting (iron, copper etc) mesh? This should stop all electromagnetic waves with wavelengths longer than the diameter of a mesh hole, and cancel out any static electric field. This will leave you with only static magnetic fields to deal with.