What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?

Mijo said:
Point taken about the non sequitur, the description of "non-random" truly does not follow from the constraints on evolution and its non-uniformity in distribution.
I disagree. What doesn't follow is to say that evolution is a "nonrandom process" or a "deterministic process." It is entirely reasonable to say that some aspects of evolution are nonrandom with respect to something else.

Let's say I have a box that accepts a number as input and echoes that number, without change, to its output. If I attach that box to a random number generator, the ensemble is a random process. However, the box's output is nonrandom with respect to its input. To call the box random would be quite misleading. In fact, in this case, it would be wrong.

~~ Paul
 
I am therefore willing to unconditionally grant that we do not know enough about selection to say for sure whether it is random or not. Thus, this whole argument seems a little silly now.

We do understand enough about selection to say that it is not random--at least not by your seeming understanding of the word Selection is the opposite of random--or at least on the opposite end of random as it applies to mutation. Your problem is the word "random". It really is. You don't want to understand selection...you want to understand how selection IS random. You don't want peer reviewed papers saying selection IS random (because you won't find those either)--yet, you want peer reviewed articles saying it is not. This just reveals your bias. You have a bizarre standard of evidence that allows you to see what you want.

If you were sincere in wanting to clear up creationist misunderstandings, you would be more curious as to what was meant by selection and what was meant by saying it is "the opposite of random"--not hell bent on saying that random components in selection make evolution itself random. It's not an argument. Facts can only be understood; they don't change via beliefs, semantics or arguments. Evolution can be understood. Start with the basics--"random mutation coupled with natural selection" and go from there. I deal with kids raised with standard creationist thinking and this is what works. Turn the airplane analogy into the fact that airplanes, themselves didn't whirl into being--they all have a common ancestor in the first plane--which has ancestors in prototypes and observations of birds, combined with ideas of humans and serendipity along the way--

Nothing complex starts in an instant...evolution is the key to understanding how all complexity arises.
 
Yeah, I guess it would.

However, I am still wondering why evolution cannot be discussed as an "ensemble mean" process, much like the way classical thermodynamics was built up from statistical mechanics when I took physical chemistry.


I agree with one caveat.

The critters are still individuals in a complex enviroment. There is an awful lot of chaos invoved. So while populations might tend to statistical norms, the change seems to happen when it involves individual success in an enviroment.

So while probabilities are useful to understanding the process there are causal relationships which the critter may encounter on a probabilistic basis.

I feel there are so many variables that probability will not be the sole solution to understanding. Chaotic and pseudo-random assemblies of interaction can occur from very simple causal relationships.
 
We do understand enough about selection to say that it is not random--at least not by your seeming understanding of the word Selection is the opposite of random--or at least on the opposite end of random as it applies to mutation. Your problem is the word "random". It really is. You don't want to understand selection...you want to understand how selection IS random. You don't want peer reviewed papers saying selection IS random (because you won't find those either)--yet, you want peer reviewed articles saying it is not. This just reveals your bias. You have a bizarre standard of evidence that allows you to see what you want.

You have all explained in great detail that evolution is not random because there are constraints and not every individual has an equal chance of having offspring. I have in turn explained that a random process need not be unconstrained or have uniformly distributed probabilities. Also, the fact that unfavorable alleles are culled from the population does not make evolution non-random. Culling can happen, albeit more slowly, if selection is inherently probabilistic. For instance, in a collection of 100 objects with a probability of being selected of .1 (I know this is an oversimplification, but I am only trying to demonstrate that a probabilistic process can cull), it is most likely that 10 of them will be selected. In the next iteration, it is most likely that only one of them will be selected, and in the next iteration it is almost certain that no individuals will survive. Thus, it only takes three iterations of the probabilistic process before the object are eliminated from the ensemble. I realize that his ignores reproduction and mutation, but individual must produce on average 1/p (i.e., the reciprocal of the probability of survival) times the number of offspring in order for its absolute numbers to remain constant.

If you were sincere in wanting to clear up creationist misunderstandings, you would be more curious as to what was meant by selection and what was meant by saying it is "the opposite of random"--not hell bent on saying that random components in selection make evolution itself random. It's not an argument. Facts can only be understood; they don't change via beliefs, semantics or arguments. Evolution can be understood. Start with the basics--"random mutation coupled with natural selection" and go from there. I deal with kids raised with standard creationist thinking and this is what works. Turn the airplane analogy into the fact that airplanes, themselves didn't whirl into being--they all have a common ancestor in the first plane--which has ancestors in prototypes and observations of birds, combined with ideas of humans and serendipity along the way--

If you can produce a definition of "non-random" that doesn't include as one of its underpinnings that evolution is a constrained system with non-uniformly distributed probabilities of survival, that organisms evolve, or that evolutionary algorithms work, I would be willing to consider it.

So what is your definition of "non-random"?

Nothing complex starts in an instant...evolution is the key to understanding how all complexity arises.

My argument was never that complexity arises instantaneously, but thanks for the mischaracterization.
 
I am therefore willing to unconditionally grant that we do not know enough about selection to say for sure whether it is random or not. Thus, this whole argument seems a little silly now.

I think it's best if you characterize it as YOU do not know enough about selection to say for sure whether it is random or not. The biologists know enough to say it is not. Mutations are random, selection drives the process. Biologists would say that saying "evolution is random" allows creationists such as yourself, to hear that evolution is a random process or whatever it is you hear.

You have demonstrated the exact misunderstanding you were supposedly trying to clear up with this thread. I'm not interested in explaining anything to you or going off in search of articles. All this conversation has boiled down to your idiotic conclusion:

I am therefore willing to unconditionally grant that we do not know enough about selection to say for sure whether it is random or not. Thus, this whole argument seems a little silly now


What's silly is your insistence on using words that analogy after analogy shows you is just misleading--it doesn't answer your question or clear up the creationist confusion over the word "random", "chance", etc. You are listening just to hear what you want to hear.

By your conclusion than we don't have enough information to determine whether artificial selection is random...since random factors will always come into play.
 
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If you think that I don't understand why natural selection is non-random, articulett, then explain it to me. I have given you the tool to find what I have read on the subject so that you can discern what I might be thinking about the topic, yet you seem not to have payed attention. Furthermore I just asked to provide a definition of "non-random" and you have yet to, but you still insist that I don't understand natural selection.
 
To be completely explicit:

How do you, the people who claim that evolution is "non-random", define "non-random"?

What makes mutation random with respect to the environment and natural selection non-random with respect to the environment?
 
If you think that I don't understand why natural selection is non-random, articulett, then explain it to me. I have given you the tool to find what I have read on the subject so that you can discern what I might be thinking about the topic, yet you seem not to have payed attention. Furthermore I just asked to provide a definition of "non-random" and you have yet to, but you still insist that I don't understand natural selection.

I'm sure Michael Behe has given everyone the tools they need to describe why things are not irreducibly complex. Kleinman has given us all the tools we need to come to his conclusion. I don't have conversations with creationist for this reason. This is why Dawkins refuses to debate them. I'll let those who actually think you are not a creationist answer the question that you really don't want answered--the answer you can't hear. Repeatedly you have been told that the problem is your word choice--not definitions--and your ignorance as to how selection chooses out from amongst the random. Every question you ask is smarmy and loaded and not in line at all with the supposed intention of your original post.

And Meadmaker, if this isn't an obvious demonstration of why random is a bad word and how creationists get hung up on it and spin their own stories, then you are missing the obvious as well.

Mijo asked a loaded question designed for a specific conclusion which he came to as highlighted above. No matter what words you use, his conclusion boils down to "evolution is random"-- he does not understand selection at all. Artificial selection is not random--no scientist would say so...humans choose which life forms live and reproduce--or at least help their favored varieties to do so...and thus we have various breeds of dogs, racehorses, agriculture, turkeys, bananas, etc. The environment does the same--often over eons. Predator and prey relationships are the primary driving force--but so is niche filling, symbiosis, having the right mutation at the right place at the right time and having what it takes to survive long enough to pass on your genes. Natural selection is as non-random as artificial selection, it's just that there are more possible components in the choosing, and it takes much longer (sometimes) to obtain observable results...

How does his idiotic definition and conclusion clarify this or anything for anyone--especially the fake creationists he alleges he's trying to address with his "academic" seriousness or whatever babble?

How does his ridiculous conclusion clarify this simple scenario:

A virus that irritates the respiratory fact has developed a good trick for getting passed on. When you irritates the lungs of a vector, you have a good chance of being passed on in a cough. If you are a virus that causes mucous flow or sneezing, you've evolved a good trick too. This isn't random. This sort of virus is selected for by the environment--it's not even a life form but it continues on because it has evolved a great way to make more of itself. Lots of viruses are made, but they don't become anything or do anything or take off the way respiratory viruses do-- Calling this "random" or "non-random" is just asinine if you want to understand anything at all about evolution--calling it random will not do anything but make creationists hear what they want to hear...and that is the supposed "straw man" that mijo was trying to address in his opening post.

You all have been bamboozled by a dishonest creationist. I've already seen how this goes (See the Kleinman thread...read the Behe transcript...try talking to hammegk in an intelligent dialogue... You can not teach people stuff they have a vested interest in not hearing. Mijo has a vested interest in not clearing up the mistaken notion of the hypothetical creationists in his first post.)

Please, notice the highlighted words... notice what he ignored... notice the conclusions he reached. This is how all dialogue with creationists sound. They never go anywhere. It is a masturbatory exercise for them to hear what they want to hear. The clue was in the first post when he insulted swaths of people on another thread and then claimed no one answered his question until pressed on the audacity of such a claim. Really. This is exactly like his discontinuous fossil thread.

Just as he jumped to his murky conclusions about evolution and randomness and could only hear what he wanted to hear in that regard--so too did some of you give him the benefit of the doubt long after he spat upon your explanations and analogies or ignored them completely.

Meadmaker, you are just wrong--both about creationist abuse and the word random and mijo. You told him what he wanted to hear and he told you want you wanted to hear and neither of you furthered anyone's understanding on the topic question at all.
 
To be completely explicit:

How do you, the people who claim that evolution is "non-random", define "non-random"?

What makes mutation random with respect to the environment and natural selection non-random with respect to the environment?

My fly link wasn't explicit enough? All of Paul's writings? Non-random is not a scientific description-- random is...and we've all gone over that. Us people aren't making a claim about evolutions randomness except to say that the way you refer to it is just uninformative, misleading, and misses how NATURAL SELECTION is the chooser--the non-randomizer--the driver of the process. Get it? I thought not.

Meadmaker, read this from Behe at the Discovery Institute--the DI lie machine--you can be damn sure that mijo is doing what the author is doing:

http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/index.php?command=view&id=2539

In fact, except for the better writing of the DI article, I can't tell mijo from the author in this misleading muck. (gee willikers, it looks so purposeful and complex--how could it come about by random chance?). The author even says the technically correct "random mutation, coupled with natural selection"--but emphasizes the random aspect--just like mijo is doing....I dare you to find a difference in their babbling. Which one understands evolution better, if at all?
 
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Y
My argument was never that complexity arises instantaneously, but thanks for the mischaracterization.

Pardon me, I meant to imply that your argument was that complexity arises randomly. (It doesnt, btw).

(Oh, and why are you calling it an "argument"?--I thought you were trying to clarify a creationist misunderstanding in regards to the non-random aspects of evolution ...you must learn to keep better track of your deceptions.)
 
I have never claimed that just because evolution is random it can't have happened naturalistically and therefore every organism was purposefully desigjned by an Intelligent Designer or that there was some sort of plan behind life. In other words, I have never said, "[G]ee willikers, it looks so purposeful and complex--how could it come about by random chance?" either explicitly or implicitly, as you have tried to sum up my arguments.

I have however acknowledged that deterministic characteristics can arise from many iterations of stochastic processes. If you are going to make the claim that I have said what you claim I have said, articulett, you need to provide a verbatim quotation where I have actually expressed such a sentiment, rather than just your overall interpretation of what I have overall the threads in which we have interacted.
 
Mijo said:
What makes mutation random with respect to the environment and natural selection non-random with respect to the environment?
Mutation is "randomer" with respect to the environment because it can be affected by such events as cosmic rays. Also, possibly, copying mistakes are due to random chemical events. These sorts of events are not a part of, or dictated by, the Earth's environment.

Selection is "nonrandomer" with respect to the environment because the increase in information in the genome as a result of selection is a transmutation of information in the environment. The genome is carved by the environment.

I'm happy to abandon the term nonrandom completely if you can give me another term that characterizes the probabilistic results of selection in a way that is helpful for the novice.

~~ Paul
 
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Articulett said:
In fact, except for the better writing of the DI article, I can't tell mijo from the author in this misleading muck. (gee willikers, it looks so purposeful and complex--how could it come about by random chance?). The author even says the technically correct "random mutation, coupled with natural selection"--but emphasizes the random aspect--just like mijo is doing....I dare you to find a difference in their babbling. Which one understands evolution better, if at all?
I really don't think the comparison is all that apt. I haven't heard Mijo say "Gee willikers, I just don't see how random mutation and natural selection could have accomplished this." I've expressed my suspicions that there is more here than meets the eye, and I'm still feeling a bit suspicious, but I'm not ready to accuse Mijo of any specific subterfuge.

~~ Paul
 
I really don't think the comparison is all that apt. I haven't heard Mijo say "Gee willikers, I just don't see how random mutation and natural selection could have accomplished this." I've expressed my suspicions that there is more here than meets the eye, and I'm still feeling a bit suspicious, but I'm not ready to accuse Mijo of any specific subterfuge.

~~ Paul

I'm willing to be the only one. But go back to his first post. What was his question? Is he able to address the creationist canard he hoped to be able to address?

And look at his oblique way of saying nothing at all. Sexual selection is a major component of evolution--it explains the peacock's plumage; dimorphism in the sexes tells us much about selection...we know why we see what we see--why it isn't random...how female choice drives male competition...how the evolutionary arms races of competing for niches food and mates drives evolution in very "focused" way. How does insisting that it's random or even probabilistic mean anything or help clear up the question asked in the opening post? Why would biologist repeatedly say they do know enough to say that calling evolution random is wrong...it is misleading and makes for ready confusion in those eager to be confused and hear scientists think "complexity comes from randomness".

Look, the DI people sound sincere too. How does mijo sound different to you. How does his understanding of evolution sound different. What is being implied and why? Why does he keep coming to such vague and dismissive conclusions instead of "getting it"? Why does he miss the most important analogies or dismiss the best answers as "straw men", non-sequitars, and irrelevant.

And why does he avoid answering how he will now answer the creationist canard in his first post inquiring about non-random aspects of evolution. If he's not an "intelligent design proponent", he sounds exactly like them. Not as bad as kleinman, to be sure--but always leading the conversation back to the conclusion he wants to hear and praising those who allow him to do so with scientific nuanced understandings that he does not have.
 
Articulett said:
Look, the DI people sound sincere too. How does mijo sound different to you. How does his understanding of evolution sound different. What is being implied and why? Why does he keep coming to such vague and dismissive conclusions instead of "getting it"? Why does he miss the most important analogies or dismiss the best answers as "straw men", non-sequitars, and irrelevant.
Maybe he just really, really believes we should be perfectly technically accurate in our description of evolution.

As I say, I'm not yet satisfied that it's so simple, but I'm reserving judgement. I don't want to call creationist unless it's more obvious.

~~ Paul
 
Natural selection is not random in this way--every single time it weeds out the least fit--in fact, that is the definition of least fit. If you are a sperm with 2 tails, whatever genetic fluke factored in to making two tails will not get passed on--because that will be one slow sperm. The most fit genes are merely the genes that have the most likelihood of getting passed on barring random things like meteors, being stepped on, being a sperm trapped in a condom, etc. Every thing DNA comes up against is a selection process--does it survive?--can it still replicate?--every test gets rid of the least fit--every time. 100% assured... NOT random.

If he wants to be "technically accurate", he needs to get rid of the word random in his definition. Having a random component, does not a random factor make. Selection is not random in regard to the least fit--not ever. The least fit never make it. Whether it's a bacteria that can't divide because of some missing enzyme or a person with a genetic illness that makes them sterile.

And do you think Behe is obvious, Paul. He will even say that he is not a creationist. If you read the Discovery Institute it all sounds sort of true-ish--though it's misleading--especially if you are not educated in science or statistics. I mean there is a "controversy", but the controversy isn't among scientists in regards to whether evolution is random or whether evolution is a fact--those controversies are only among the "proponents of ID" and scientists.
Even the fellow "randomites" admit that calling evolution random is misleading--or uninformative or true only in a general sort of way--that is, it was "an accident" that we exist-- Unless, they are "intelligent design proponents"-- who pop in and out of these threads on occasion to speak of the skeptic conspiracy that doesn't allow their clever "argument" to be heard.

Since when did truth need to be argued rather than understood? The adjectives we use to describe the evolution process does nothing to change the process itself--so why not aim for the most informative description?

Complexity may start from randomness--but it grows through selection-- Evolution is the growing of complexity--and the pruning of that complexity.
 
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Imagine someone from 100 years ago looking at the room you are in right now and seeing you surrounded by things and materials that didn't exist back then. Imagine them exclaiming--wow, that is so complex, I can't imagine how that came from chance. But it didn't come from chance--it came from selection. Sure randomness was involved--and we don't know all the twists and turns that lead to each item in the room--but we sure as hell know that they didn't occur randomly. They were selected. When you say evolution is random--you are as unclear as saying the stuff in your room appeared randomly. It's just so obfuscating.

Random components do not a random process make. Repeat. Apply analogy to evolution. It's not a straw man. It is true of all complexity. Some stuff stays and is expanded upon, other stuff dies out.

(aargh...why do I keep beating my head on the wall...it's not like he's going to say, "now I get why you are adverse to calling selection random -- thanks for finally helping me get it...here's what I would tell those creationists....")
 
So, here's a question that Articulett asked:

Why is Deepak wrong when he says this:

"To say the DNA happened randomly is like saying that a hurricane could blow through a junk yard and produce a jet plane."

It’s tempting to say “nothing”, because there’s a certain degree of merit in the analogy. Most people here probably know that it was originally attributed to astronomer Fred Hoyle, and it concerned the problem of abiogenesis. The first replicator really did come together randomly, and if it had to be as complicated as DNA, it couldn’t have happened.

(You can read the talkorigins comments about the analogy here:
http://www.talkorigins.org/indexcc/CF/CF002_1.html)

Therefore, the first replicating molecule was not DNA, but something simpler. That’s one thing that’s wrong with Deepak’s analogy. He’s acting as if DNA was a starting point in the process. In reality, DNA was quite a few steps down the road.

I say “in reality”, but that’s probably a poor choice of words, because we have no clue what that road looked like. We just know that somehow, it happened, and it didn’t happen by throwing together a bunch of amino acids and pulling out DNA. That would be about as likely as pulling a jet plane out after a tornado passed through a junkyard.

So, how did it happen? Well, there must have been an initial replicating thing. It had to come together randomly, and then through gradual modifications, slowly turn into DNA. Selection must have played a role.

Most people familiar with this debate would say that the failure to recognize the role of selection was the problem with Deepak’s analogy. The standard line would be that DNA did not come together randomly. Some very simple replicating molecule came together randomly, and then through a combination of random variation and selection, it gradually, over many generations, evolved into DNA. It could not be randomness alone; it had to be randomness combined with selection.

Let’s try it out. We’ll clear up the error and correct the analogy.

“To say that DNA came together through a combination of random assembly, random variation, and natural selection is like saying you could assemble a jet plane by starting with some parts in a junkyard. Then, you select parts at random and put them together. If you like what they do, you keep them, and build more of them with the parts you find. Once in a while, you might make a mistake and put the wrong parts together, but you’ll find that it does something nice, so you keep that and start making some of the new assemblies, too. Before you know it, you’ll be winging down to Cancun on your new jet airliner!”

Notice that it doesn’t help much. We’ve removed the “random” problem, and we still have something that sounds like a creationist argument, and one that creationists would accept. We haven’t fundamentally changed the argument.

Certainly one problem with the argument is that it suggests that the complexity of the airplane couldn’t come about randomly. Most people would recognize that the error in that argument is that all of the complexity wouldn’t happen at once. A random process can in fact gradually grow complexity. However, I don’t think that Mr. Chopra’s error is dependent on the complexity of the plane. We can see that if we present an alternate version of the argument.

“To say the DNA happened randomly is like saying that a hurricane could blow through a junk yard and produce a mousetrap."


The argument doesn’t lose much of its appeal, despite the fact that we have substituted a very simple system for a very complex one. As evidence that it doesn’t lose much of its appeal, consider that mousetraps are creationist celebrities these days, ever since Behe (I think) used them as an example of an “irreducibly complex” system.

The mousetrap and the plane don’t share complexity, but they share something else. They share function. They share purpose. They are both created for a reason.

When a creationist looks at a living thing, and especially the components thereof, he sees something with a purpose. Whether it’s an eye, or a kidney, or a cell wall, or a flagellum, he sees something that is there for a purpose, and he doesn’t see how something with a purpose could develop from a process that has no purpose. The key feature of the “random” process of evolution that Choprah referred to is not the uniform distribution, or the range of the probabilities involved, but rather the purposeless nature of it.

I think that’s the key error made in that argument. They are asserting that pieces of us, of living things, have purpose, and that the living things couldn’t exist without purpose, and that this purposeless, i.e. random, process could not produce something with a purpose.

To defeat this argument, you would have to demonstrate either that something with a purpose could emerge from a process that had no purpose, or demonstrate that something that appears to have a purpose does not really have one in a meaningful sense of the word. In my opinion, the latter task is easier, and emphasizing the randomness of evolution makes that task easier, not more difficult.


All right, I addressed that one. If there's another one you would like me to address, feel free to let me know. I know you've mentioned quite a few already, but one at a time, please, if you really want to hear my answer. I'll have a few for you as we go on, but for now I'm content to answer, not ask.
 
Meadmaker said:
When a creationist looks at a living thing, and especially the components thereof, he sees something with a purpose. Whether it’s an eye, or a kidney, or a cell wall, or a flagellum, he sees something that is there for a purpose, and he doesn’t see how something with a purpose could develop from a process that has no purpose. The key feature of the “random” process of evolution that Choprah referred to is not the uniform distribution, or the range of the probabilities involved, but rather the purposeless nature of it.
The creationist would do well to leave the word purpose out of the argument. A rock sitting on a leaf has a purpose: to keep the leaf from blowing away. A ditch has a purpose: to guide water in a certain direction.

To defeat this argument, you would have to demonstrate either that something with a purpose could emerge from a process that had no purpose, or demonstrate that something that appears to have a purpose does not really have one in a meaningful sense of the word. In my opinion, the latter task is easier, and emphasizing the randomness of evolution makes that task easier, not more difficult.
Or that anything at all has a purpose from some point of view.

~~ Paul
 
The creationist would do well to leave the word purpose out of the argument. A rock sitting on a leaf has a purpose: to keep the leaf from blowing away. A ditch has a purpose: to guide water in a certain direction.


Or that anything at all has a purpose from some point of view.

~~ Paul

Exactly. The first replicating molecules seem to have come from primordial soup washing over mineral surfaces such as rocks and evaporating--the stuff that sticks, looks like pretty good candidates for RNA-- we know that much of life has left chirality which allows for a kind of spiral-- spirals don't exist because they're pretty and crystals don't exist because they're ordered and globes don't exist because someone rolled the planets into balls (or water droplets)--but because of actual physical properties of the elements themselves interacting with the environment. Wind has no purpose--but it exists and blows dandelion seeds all over the place and so do kids making wishes... But there is no dandelion planting purpose...

Deepak is wrong because the airplane, itself, evolved... all airplanes have a common ancestor in the first airplane... that which works was built upon and honed--not necessarily the best-- but the least good was weeded out...they didn't fly...they crashed...and the survivors are honed. That is what evolution does too. The creationist in the example are wrong because scientist don't claim this all came from chance. We actually understand how it came to be, and it's been confirmed with every genome we decode. We have the big picture, and we can explain it to anyone who is interested. Chance plays a big role in "contenders"--but selection does the culling--it gets rid of the least fit every time...and refines and hones the keepers until they, too, become obsolete.

Selection IS the culling process--it drives evolution. It is the "anti-randomizer". It IS the elimination round. And it takes trillions upon trillions of experiments and modifications and elimination rounds and time to get the cobbled together complexity we see before us-- but that is the power of selection. Humans figured this out early on, and sped it up by artificially selecting traits we find useful.

And while Deepak might be more right to call DNA random--DNA would be the equivalent of a recipe for making metal in the 747 analogy. A human would be the 747 (speciesist that I am).
 

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