I've already addressed this, but since you've ignored that post I'll repeat it, and hopefully make it clearer.
To do this I'll follow the logic of guided evolution to its inevitable ends.
There are two possible ways that evolution could be guided;
1. The first of these is intelligently, i.e. something watches how things progress and tweaks them if it doesn't like what's happening. This intelligence has two possible forms, natural and supernatural.
1a. The natural would be some form of being which exists within the physical laws of our Universe, i.e. aliens. This however raises the question of how the aliens got to be so intelligent as to play with evolution without leaving any traces of their tinkering. They must be at least as intelligent and advanced as humans, and if evolution by natural selection can't work then logically something must have guided the aliens' evolution. But whatever it was that guided the aliens evolution must also have been intelligent and advanced and......... well I could keep going forever, an infinite regression of intelligently evolved creatures. You seem fond of calculating probabilities, so would you care to work out the probability of an infinite regression?
1b. The supernatural explanation is some form of intelligence that exists outside of the physical laws of our Universe, and is thus undetectable by any means. That would be god, and since it is undetectable it leaves science and becomes philosophy and theology. At which point all scientific enquiry comes to a halt and we have a god of the gaps. This effectively defaults to "Nobody knows how evolution works, so god did it!" There are no possible answers, so we should give up asking questions.
2. The second form the guide can take is non-intelligent. This must be some set of rules or laws which govern how evolution progresses. Well we have some evidence (a heck of a lot, actually) of how evolution progresses from the fossil record, bacteria, viruses, vestigial structures, etc. and these seem to show that creatures adapt to their surroundings. The big question, of course, is, "how do they adapt? What mechanism allows the adaptation?" Well, investigation of DNA seems to show that DNA itself changes randomly with some of these changes helping organisms to adapt positively, and some causing negative adaptations. Those adaptations which are positive allow the organism to thrive, whilst the latter usually result in the organism dying out. So the guide for non-intelligently guided evolution would seem to be pressure on populations from their environment, i.e. evolution by natural selection.
I predict, however, that you will completely ignore this post.