Changes To The Challenge

[Pinocchio]

I understood you meant "real-deal". Who would qualify as such in your book?

I guess we would have to find them. I did not have anyone specific in mind. Just don't know why anyone would try to make it harder for people with claims of apparent merit to apply, versus public clowns.

You can go to the claims section of the forum. Among the hundreds of claims there are about a dozen that had some potential.
Some other stuff that might be worth looking into:

1.CFR
http://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FauvarqueJabnormalex.pdf

2.Joe Cell
http://peswiki.com/index.php/OS:Bill_Williams'_Joe_Cell

3.Reed motor, Troy Reed
[from The Race to Zero-Point documentary]

4.Magnetic Gate, Howard Johnson [spintronics]
http://www.cheniere.org/misc/johnson.htm

I think he just means someone who really does believe they have paranormal powers (but is not hopelessly demented or obviously delusional), as opposed to someone who knows they do not have paranormal powers and is in it just to make money by defrauding people.

Or perhaps someone who actually does have them? Can't happen? Then why pretend you're looking for them? Put it like this: paranormal challenge, for all you deluded folks, apply now. We don't investigate real phenomena, because there is no such thing.

Sorry, after hearing mr. Randi complain about all the deluded/mentally ill applicants the JREF used to pour resources into, I got the idea he wanted to keep those to a minimum.

It should be noted that, although the primary purpose of the Challenge is publicity,

Okay, so how come we can't even read about the applicants and their applications online anymore? That was kind of fun. I think it's predominantly the Randi critics who often say the challenge is 'about publicity'. They seem to be right more and more often these days...

Pinocchio, you clearly do not understand the purpose of the challenge, or the mandate of the JREF. Since actual paranormal abilities do not exist, there are no "real-deal" candidates. There are only the deluded, and the fraudulent. The deluded have now been excluded, that leaves only the fraudulent to pursue - those who do the most harm.

The JREF has no interest in discovering, nor intention to investigate "real-deal" paranormal abilities. It's mandate is to educate the public about, and promote the furthering of critical thinking, so that fewer people are either taken in by the charlatans, or become deluded themselves.

Wow. Is that so? Because if that is so, I mean... the critics and dismissors of JREF have been right all along. How did this foundation legally managed to land 'educational' in their name is beyond me then.

It is itself a fraud. Purporting to be interested in testing people who MIGHT HAVE REAL abilites or have/think they have discovered a yet unknown fact of nature that turns science upside down [which has happened more than a couple of times during the last centuries], while in reality - you said it, not me - is TOTALLY BIASED and considers every applicant deluded or a fraud.

Why would you be testing frauds or deluded people? To increase your own influence? To do what other frauds do, create a following and spread it as much as possible?

Sorry, didn't know that's what it does. This is as educational as the church in the dark ages.



p.s.
Cannot believe any real scientist would want to be associated with such an organization.

 

[BillyJoe]

BillyJoe: I think he just means someone who really does believe they have paranormal powers (but is not hopelessly demented or obviously delusional), as opposed to someone who knows they do not have paranormal powers and is in it just to make money by defrauding people.

Or perhaps someone who actually does have them?

Well, "someone who actually does have them" falls into the first category: "someone who really does believe they have paranormal powers". All I'm doing here is contrasting the group who genuinely believe they have paranormal powers form those who only pretend to have them and know they do not.

Can't happen? Then why pretend you're looking for them? Put it like this: paranormal challenge, for all you deluded folks, apply now. We don't investigate real phenomena, because there is no such thing.

Well, don't put these words into my mouth. If you want to know what Randi/JREF attitude is, you'd better ask them. My impression is that, for the purposes of the challenge, they ostensibly accept that paranormal phenomena are possible, but privately they would be completely astounded if that turned out to be the case. In my opinion that attitude is justified by the darth of evidence in it's favour so far.

Sorry, after hearing mr. Randi complain about all the deluded/mentally ill applicants the JREF used to pour resources into, I got the idea he wanted to keep those to a minimum.

He wants to avoid the thankless, unrecognised, and ultimately unrewarding efforts dealing with "hopelessly demented or obviously delusional" (see first part of my post that you quoted). In a word, the nutcases.

 

[Jackalgirl]

I just wanted to jump in here and point out a couple of things:

1) The JREF Challenge rules are changing on April 1 of this year. Any "real-deal" and yet somehow mediapathic paranormal types can still get in an application before then.

2) After the JREF Challenge rules change, there are still plenty of opportunities for unknown "real-deal" people. Many skeptical groups (e.g., ASKE) offer challenges of their own. Maybe the lucre isn't the same, but winning any one of those challenges would undoubtedly result in media attention and, presto, the chops to apply for the JREF Challenge.

So it really isn't a shut-out for "real-deal" unknowns at all. They just have to become known, which is easy if their powers are the real deal.

 

[Tricky]

I just wanted to jump in here and point out a couple of things:

1) The JREF Challenge rules are changing on April 1 of this year. Any "real-deal" and yet somehow mediapathic paranormal types can still get in an application before then.

2) After the JREF Challenge rules change, there are still plenty of opportunities for unknown "real-deal" people. Many skeptical groups (e.g., ASKE) offer challenges of their own. Maybe the lucre isn't the same, but winning any one of those challenges would undoubtedly result in media attention and, presto, the chops to apply for the JREF Challenge.

So it really isn't a shut-out for "real-deal" unknowns at all. They just have to become known, which is easy if their powers are the real deal.

That is exactly correct, Jackalgirl. Essentially, JREF is telling people to do the preliminary test locally. If you can pass it or get it publicized that you have passed it, then apply for the million. They simply don't have the resources to weed out all the mentally ill people. They need to focus on the totally sane people so they can weed out the charlatans. What will be left are those with true paranormal talents.

 

[BillyJoe]

They simply don't have the resources to weed out all the mentally ill people. They need to focus on the totally sane people so they can weed out the charlatans. What will be left are those with true paranormal talents.

 

[robinson]

So far, there are no changes to the challenge. Only changes on who can "apply".

 

[BillyJoe]

...not even that yet!


oh, hold on....requiring media coverage and academic endorsement is not a change???

 

[Tricky]

So far, there are no changes to the challenge. Only changes on who can "apply".

There is one significant change in that there is no "preliminary" test. Instead, you have to show that you have got enough people convinced that you are the real thing, including media people. This essentially substitutes for the preliminary test.

 

[The Atheist]

I must add this guy to the favourite paranormal guy thread.

You're not Sally's boyfriend are you, mate? She was going to stop the Iraq war to prove god's existence. That didn't work either.

 

[Gr8wight]

Pinocchio, you clearly do not understand the purpose of the challenge, or the mandate of the JREF. Since actual paranormal abilities do not exist, there are no "real-deal" candidates. There are only the deluded, and the fraudulent. The deluded have now been excluded, that leaves only the fraudulent to pursue - those who do the most harm.

The JREF has no interest in discovering, nor intention to investigate "real-deal" paranormal abilities. It's mandate is to educate the public about, and promote the furthering of critical thinking, so that fewer people are either taken in by the charlatans, or become deluded themselves.

Wow. Is that so? Because if that is so, I mean... the critics and dismissors of JREF have been right all along. How did this foundation legally managed to land 'educational' in their name is beyond me then.

It is itself a fraud. Purporting to be interested in testing people who MIGHT HAVE REAL abilites or have/think they have discovered a yet unknown fact of nature that turns science upside down [which has happened more than a couple of times during the last centuries], while in reality - you said it, not me - is TOTALLY BIASED and considers every applicant deluded or a fraud.

Why would you be testing frauds or deluded people? To increase your own influence? To do what other frauds do, create a following and spread it as much as possible?

Sorry, didn't know that's what it does. This is as educational as the church in the dark ages.



p.s.
Cannot believe any real scientist would want to be associated with such an organization.

You seem to have missed the actual word "educate" in my reply to you. I have bolded it so you might more easily find it. I did state quite clearly what the education part of the foundation is all about.

Again, you demonstrate your ignorance. The JREF has never claimed "to be interested in testing people who MIGHT HAVE REAL abilites." They are interested in testing people who claim to have real abilities. Their purpose in testing these people (be they charlatans, or simply deluded) is in order to show others that the claims of these people do not hold water. Their purpose is to educate (there's that word again, in case you missed it) the public so that fewer people are taken advantage of by those who ply their fraudulent trade for money.

Regarding your post script, many real scientists want to be associated with the JREF, because they share Mr. Randi's concern at the general public's astounding lack of understanding of reality. However, the JREF is not a scientific organisation, and has never claimed to be. Their mandate is not to "study" the paranormal. It is to promote the spread of critical thinking in our society.

Now stop! Before you click the reply button, go back and read this post again. Read it more slowly this time. Actually think about what it is I have said. Comprehension, that's what I'm looking for. Please try.

 

[CynicalSkeptic]

This is mostly just a rhetorical question. I don't think there's anyway to prove it without feeling like a research rat.

... When I can acheive a state of mind where I know that something will happen, feel deep inside that it will happen, have faith that it will happen, have conviction that it will happen, don't doubt that it will happen, then events or circumstances have always evolved as I desire them to do. If I just feel relatively sure that something will happen then it will most like occur, but sometimes it doesn't.

Can you will a coin to come up heads?

1. Before (this is absolutely critical to the test) you flip the coin, write down the state of mind. i.e. Do you have faith/conviction/knowledge that the coin will come up heads?
2. Flip the coin, and write down the result.

Do this for 20 or so flips where you were sure that it would work. Post the results.

Hopefully, you can do this by yourself without feeling like a research rat.

 

[Jim_Mich]

When I was still a child I tried to use my 'powers' to beat my brothers when we played board games such a Monopoly and others. Usually I would beat them. But soon they would not play with me. So I chose to not use my power for such things.

I tried flipping a quarter like suggested. Each time I decided which coin face I wanted. Then I concentrated for a short time, about 30 to 60 seconds. I then flipped the coin into the air so it landed on a rug. I called heads the first two times and then tails for four times. I got all six correct. At this point I was mentally exhausted and I quit. I'll try again latter tonight and tomorrow. I know from past experience that after about a half dozen times the ability seems to fade. It's kind of like a genie giving a limited number of wishes. Or maybe the probabilities of the universe need to be maintained? Because the 'power' seems to fade with use I only use it when really needed.

I think the probability of correctly flipping six times in a row is about 1 in 64, IIRC.

Jim_Mich

 

[Jackalgirl]

I tried flipping a quarter like suggested. Each time I decided which coin face I wanted. Then I concentrated for a short time, about 30 to 60 seconds. I then flipped the coin into the air so it landed on a rug. I called heads the first two times and then tails for four times. I got all six correct. At this point I was mentally exhausted and I quit. I'll try again latter tonight and tomorrow. I know from past experience that after about a half dozen times the ability seems to fade. It's kind of like a genie giving a limited number of wishes. Or maybe the probabilities of the universe need to be maintained? Because the 'power' seems to fade with use I only use it when really needed.

This is a very good start, Jim. Your next step is to blind the test. Have someone help you out, and that person should be out of your sight (behind a cardboard screen, the couch, or something like that). You get into your mindset, then write down your call and say "ready". Your friend flips the coin, writes down the result, and says "done". Repeat this six times (or however many you feel you can do without being too exhausted), then compare your results. It's not very strict blinding, mind you, but it's the next increment in what you're doing.

 

[feldesq]

Yes, but don't forget that the Challenge has two other primary components to it: education and emphasis. That is, it is just one of the working tools the JREF uses to educate the public (the phrase "publicity tool" carries a certain pejorative element to it) and to emphasize the importance of the scientific method in evaluating claims (Occam's Razor, et al.). And the Challeneg is another powerful means of going on the attack against the perpetrators of flim-flam (Browns, Edward, et als). There are still other issues to be considered with respect to the modification the JREF has made to the Challenge; however, the history of the JREF's prior approach has demonstrated that very little was being accomplished under the old "rules" except for the creation of a potentially valuable compilation of woo woo assertions (psychologists might find this compilation worth a doctoral thesis someday).

 

[Jim_Mich]

JackalGirl,
Involving other individuals always makes it more difficult because they usually have some vested interest in the outcome. Like I said in my earlier post, "I think many people have 'border line' paranormal powers." As such, trying to affect the outcome of events when someone else is involved pits my 'powers' against the other persons 'powers' and is harder to do. Of course they usually don't 'know' that they can have 'powers' to affect events. I don't know how much having someone else flip the coins would affect the outcome, maybe very little?

In order to involve someone else I would have to explain why I want to do the test, which opens me up to ridicule and I start becoming a lab rat. I'll need to think about it.

-----------------
feldesq,
It seems that the JREF's main objective it to educate (or indoctrinate) people into thinking that paranormal things cannot happen and that all such claims are bogus. This is the main reason for the MDC. Obviously it it the JREF's thinking that all claim applicants are either loony or they are frauds. The frauds will never apply so that leaves only the loonies to be dealt with. So as far as the JREF is concerned I would be considered a loonie.

-----------------
Just before posting I flipped the coin four more times calling tails twice then heads twice. Four more correct flips. It took almost two minutes before I became confident for the third flip. So I rested a few minutes then flipped the fourth. I think the odds of 10 correct calls in a row would be about 1 in 1024. Each time I close my eyes and concentrate. I tumble the coin over a number of times in my hands so that I don't know which side is which. Keeping my eyes closed I wait until I feel real confident then with my eyes still closed I flip the coin in the air with my thumb and let it land on the floor. The coin I used is one I picked at random from the coins in my pocket; it happened to be a 1967 quarter.

Jim_Mich

 

[Jackalgirl]

JackalGirl,
Involving other individuals always makes it more difficult because they usually have some vested interest in the outcome. Like I said in my earlier post, "I think many people have 'border line' paranormal powers." As such, trying to affect the outcome of events when someone else is involved pits my 'powers' against the other persons 'powers' and is harder to do. Of course they usually don't 'know' that they can have 'powers' to affect events. I don't know how much having someone else flip the coins would affect the outcome, maybe very little?

Just be aware that in order for the test to be acceptable to the JREF for Challege purposes, it's going to /have/ to be blinded. You yourself ask: "I don't know how much having someone else flip the coins would affect the outcome, maybe very little?" Well, one way to test this is to try it out. If the results don't come out the way you expect, start figuring out reasons why that might be so and then control for them. If having humans flip the coins is a problem, for example, try to figure out a mechanical solution or an electronic one (e.g., a randomizer that results in a result of 1 or 0). Try them both out and see if any of them works better. I am fairly certain that the JREF will not accept a test in which you're alone in a room (even with videocameras running) flipping a coin yourself. So definitely play around some and see if you can figure out a way to (at least) conduct a blinded test.

In order to involve someone else I would have to explain why I want to do the test, which opens me up to ridicule and I start becoming a lab rat. I'll need to think about it.

I think that if you ask around enough, you'll easily be able to find someone who believes in these types of abilities. In other words, I don't think you'll experience quite the ridicule you think you will. Try your local New Age shop, for example. You might even want to purposefully involve someone who claims to have similar powers just to see if you can discern an effect.

This type of exercise -- properly designed and executed -- /should/ be welcome by any self-respecting teacher of the scientific method, IMHO. If I had a student who was seriously trying to design a solid test, I would not ridicule that person for believing in psychic powers (because that person is willing to actually /test/ that belief). I'd be thrilled. It would make a good experiment project.

I wouldn't sweat the ridicule. If you can do what you say you can do, and you can do it under controlled conditions, then ridiculers will have to eat their words. Who cares what anyone else thinks? And as for being a lab rat: if you can come up with a solid test, then you should be the first person to publish your findings in a peer-reviewed journal. In that case, you'd be the first person to actually discover proof and method -- you'd be the discoverer of an entirely new branch of science. That alone should more than make up for the fact that you'll probably be in the lab doing demonstrations (that, and the shiny new Nobel Prize you'll probably have). So don't sweat it. Pursue it like a rabid pitbull -- damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. It's worth it.

 

[Jim_Mich]

Thanks for the encouragement, Jackalgirl. I'll need to think about this a little and test a few things.

Jim_Mich

 

[Jackalgirl]

Thanks for the encouragement, Jackalgirl. I'll need to think about this a little and test a few things.

Jim_Mich

No sweat -- good luck, and if you need any suggestions or idea-bouncing, please let us know. : ) I'm looking forward to reading more about what you find out!

 

[BillyJoe]

I tried flipping a quarter like suggested. Each time I decided which coin face I wanted. Then I concentrated for a short time, about 30 to 60 seconds. I then flipped the coin into the air so it landed on a rug. I called heads the first two times and then tails for four times. I got all six correct...I think the probability of correctly flipping six times in a row is about 1 in 64...

Just before posting I flipped the coin four more times calling tails twice then heads twice. Four more correct flips. It took almost two minutes before I became confident for the third flip. So I rested a few minutes then flipped the fourth. I think the odds of 10 correct calls in a row would be about 1 in 1024.

Each time I close my eyes and concentrate. I tumble the coin over a number of times in my hands so that I don't know which side is which. Keeping my eyes closed I wait until I feel real confident then with my eyes still closed I flip the coin in the air with my thumb and let it land on the floor...

Did you modify your technique between the two trials?

First trial: Decide H or T -> concentrate 30 - 60 seconds -> flip coin
Second trial: Decide H or T -> close eyes; concentrate; tumble coin around in hand a few times; wait till I feel really confident -> flip coin with eyes still closed

Or did you just add in detail the second time?

Test Target : HHTTTT TTHH
Result of flip: HHTTTT TTHH

That's an obvious pattern which is far less likely than a less recognisable pattern (because there are many more of them). So it seems you affected the outcome.

All were correct. This is a probability 1 in 1024, provided there were no flips between the two trials.
That is pretty impressive.
Is there any reason why you don't concentrate on getting all heads?
I assume you are not trying to predict the outcome because you say you can affect the outcome, so why not try for all heads?
That would look even more impressive!

BillyJoe

 

[The Atheist]

It seems that the JREF's main objective it to educate (or indoctrinate) people into thinking that paranormal things cannot happen and that all such claims are bogus. This is the main reason for the MDC. Obviously it it the JREF's thinking that all claim applicants are either loony or they are frauds. The frauds will never apply so that leaves only the loonies to be dealt with. So as far as the JREF is concerned I would be considered a loonie.

Now, having got that far, ask yourself why NONE of the prospective challengers has ever passed the preliminary. Not one. Ever. Not even close.

Every single loony who has turned up for a preliminary test has gone away with their heads down.

(Of course it's because of all the negative energy being put out by the sceptical community. We learn how to do that as part of our training.)