Ahmadinejad continues to broadcast his intentions...

There is enough seething hatred of Israel on this forum alone, one needn't look to the Iranian conference for more.
 
There is enough seething hatred of Israel on this forum alone, one needn't look to the Iranian conference for more.
I have a new word, which I will offer to one and all as "Irany." Irany is basically any utterance from Mahmoud on the topic of Israel, peace, relations with the US, or tolerance.

ETA: It is similar to irony, and similarly pronounced . . . emhpasis on the first: Ee-Rah-Knee. :) Than separates it from Irani, a person from Iran, stress on second syllable. It almost rhymes with tyranny, which is intentional. ;)

An example of Irany follows:
"Iran is your home and is the home of all freedom seekers of the world," Ahmadinejad said. "Here you can express your views and exchange opinions in a friendly, brotherly and free atmosphere."

"FACT-FINDING" COMMITTEE FORMED

He urged countries where Holocaust denial is a crime, to respect freedom of speech and not to take action against any of the conference participants on their return.

Human rights groups frequently number Iran as one of the world's worst violators of free speech, where scores of newspapers have been closed, journalists jailed, access to Web sites blocked and government critics hounded out of the country.
Too funny.

DR
 
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Irany. That's a pretty good term in this case. I did notice the same parts of the article you quoted, Darth Rotor. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

There's another recent thread here regarding Ahmadinejad's shenanignans, but it's turned towards the topics of the Holocaust and Zionism.

What I'm interested in addressing in this thread: Is Iran becoming an imminent threat to its neighbors? And if so, how will it affect us? I understand you've served in Iraq, Darth. I'd be interested to hear your take on this, since you have the first hand experience to weigh in on issues like this. Do you think war with Iran is inevitable?

As for me, I'd love for the USA to avoid another war since we're bogged down as it is, but Iran just seems to get scarier every day. I've found that optimism is an unrealistic position to keep, I just hope I'm wrong in this case.
 
Ahmadinejad's shenanigans

I love that. "Ahmadinejad's Shenanigans"

If and when the DR checks in, I would also like to know his opinion on whether this could be a viable band name for an Irish/Moslem group in the mold of the "Pog Mahones."

OK. Please resume thread continuity.
 
I love that. "Ahmadinejad's Shenanigans"

If and when the DR checks in, I would also like to know his opinion on whether this could be a viable band name for an Irish/Moslem group in the mold of the "Pog Mahones."
Too damned funny. It'd be a better band than Nirvana, and a better name. :D I, however, would prefer a band called Seamus O'Sama and the Oil Pints for the Irish Muslim band . . .
Irany. That's a pretty good term in this case. I did notice the same parts of the article you quoted, Darth Rotor. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

There's another recent thread here regarding Ahmadinejad's shenanignans, but it's turned towards the topics of the Holocaust and Zionism.

What I'm interested in addressing in this thread: Is Iran becoming an imminent threat to its neighbors? And if so, how will it affect us? I understand you've served in Iraq, Darth. I'd be interested to hear your take on this, since you have the first hand experience to weigh in on issues like this. Do you think war with Iran is inevitable?
No, I don't think war with Iran is inevitable, though my experience is only informed by partial experience in the war, two years ago. Some things have changed since then. Some things have not changed at all, like the difficulty in working with various factions in Al Anbar Province.

While I thank you for the nod, I personally think Garrette has a better handle on the situation than me, due to his work for the command in Bagdad, and the nature of his work.

I do think that if the US withraws post haste from Iraq, a war featuring Iran is likely, though not certain. That depends on the the responses from the Gulf States (including Saudi), Syria, and Jordan to any Iranian adventurism in Iraq as the US leaves the inevitable power vacuum. Also open is the question of what Pakistan does if Iran goes postal in the Persian Gulf.

If US bolts from Iraq quickly, temptation in Iran to take advantage of that might be too great, given the oil reserves in southeastern Iraq and Iran's finite reserves. (Predicted to go dry in 10-20 years.) I tend to think that Iran would work covertly, though Pasderan and agents, rather than overtly. Meanwhile, Iran continues its deliberate misdirection vis a vis Israel, Hezbollah, etc. Smoke screen to hide the real aims, in the Persian Gulf.

If the Sunni of the region choose to fight that, overtly or otherwise, US most likely comes in on the side of its clients, but perhaps purely in Maritime and Air action.

As the 8 ball says when I shake it each morning: "Future unclear, ask again tomorrow."

The number of variables is high. Some dominos can fall without upsetting the situation, but if some particular pieces fall, the snowball effect begins. Then, the Straights of Hormuz get mined. That gets the world's attention.

Consider: why is Al Sadr still alive? For one, he's not the leader of the Irani-centric Shia in Iraq. His problem is being too close to the Sunni for the two factions not to screw with one another.

I think that the US has a vested interest in a civil war in Iraq, Shia on Shia, and in backing Al Sadr's faction. Once that is done, the US interest is served by a follow on civil war in Iraq, Sunni on Shia, US backing the Sunni. That sequence of events would be to Iran's detriment.

I don't care, personally, how many Iraqi's die before Iraq settles down. I'd like to see the number be low, not high, but I have no emotional investment in their longevity beyond a general wish that, per Rodney King, they all get along.

I care how many Americans die, or rather, don't.

But no one in Washington asked me, perhaps for a good reason.

DR
 
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Thanks for the thorough response, Darth Rotor! It might take a while for all that to sink in here before I can add anything else.
 
. . .
I think that the US has a vested interest in a civil war in Iraq, Shia on Shia, and in backing Al Sadr's faction. Once that is done, the US interest is served by a follow on civil war in Iraq, Sunni on Shia, US backing the Sunni. That sequence of events would be to Iran's detriment.
DR

Similar thoughts were posted on talkingpointsmemo today.

Another point, and one I'm not sure is widely appreciated. The folks who brought you the Iraq War have always been weak in the knees for a really whacked-out vision of a Shi'a-US alliance in the Middle East. I used to talk to a lot of these folks before I became persona non grata. So here's basically how the theory went and, I don't doubt, still goes ... We hate the Saudis and the Egyptians and all the rest of the standing Arab governments. But the Iraqi Shi'a were oppressed by Saddam. So they'll like us. So we'll set them up in control of Iraq. You might think that would empower the Iranians. But not really. The mullahs aren't very powerful. And once the Iraqi Shi'a have a good thing going with us. The Iranians are going to want to get in on that too. So you'll see a new government in Tehran. Plus, big parts of northern Saudi Arabia are Shi'a too. And that's where a lot of the oil is. So they'll probably want to break off and set up their own pro-US Shi'a state with tons of oil. So before you know it, we'll have Iraq, Iran, and a big chunk of Saudi Arabia that is friendly to the US and has a ton of oil. And once that happens we can tell the Saudis to f$#% themselves once and for all.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/011527.php

Interesting comment about most of the Saudi oil being in Shia dominated regions? So is the new way forward to back the Shiites in the ongoing Iraqi Civil War? Counting the militias, they (the Shia) already have a sizeable 'army' available (and willing) to stamp out the Sunni led insurgency.
 
Interesting comment about most of the Saudi oil being in Shia dominated regions? So is the new way forward to back the Shiites in the ongoing Iraqi Civil War? Counting the militias, they (the Shia) already have a sizeable 'army' available (and willing) to stamp out the Sunni led insurgency.

Given my distaste for any and all things Shia, thanks to my experiences in the Med, and in the Middle East, I still find the approach the US gov't took in Iraq confounding, considering the Shia nature of Iran as our major foe in the PG.

Funny old idea, though, is to check demographics and note that "Persian" is roughly 60% of Iran, and the Azeri in Iran are ALSo sitting on a bunch of oil.

Hm

DR
 
I hadn't really considered playing Iraqi religious factions off each other in order to weaken Iran. It might work in the short term, but how do we know we won't create more Osama Bin Ladens while we're at it? If memory serves, his "formative years" were spent in Afghanistan fighting the Russians, with the US bankrolling his operation.

The only definite reason I ever found for Osama turning on us was our presence in Saudi Arabia. As far as reasons for starting a global jihad goes, that seems to me a tad on the jumpy side. Osama was just itching for a reason, I think. If it wasn't our presence in Saudi Arabia, he would have declared jihad when Vanilla Ice started putting out albums. (That I could at least empathize with.)

Getting back on topic, how do we know the Shiites that we theoretically provide backing to won't turn on the "Great Satan" once their neighbors have been subdued? Conquering the Sunnis might give the Shiites the feeling of invincibility, and they'll push for radical expansion elsewhere. Look at the violent Islamic expansion happening in Somalia as a possible example.
 
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I hadn't really considered playing Iraqi religious factions off each other in order to weaken Iran. It might work in the short term, but how do we know we won't create more Osama Bin Ladens while we're at it? If memory serves, his "formative years" were spent in Afghanistan fighting the Russians, with the US bankrolling his operation.

The only definite reason I ever found for Osama turning on us was our presence in Saudi Arabia. As far as reasons for starting a global jihad goes, that seems to me a tad on the jumpy side. Osama was just itching for a reason, I think. If it wasn't our presence in Saudi Arabia, he would have declared jihad when Vanilla Ice started putting out albums. (That I could at least empathize with.)

Getting back on topic, how do we know the Shiites that we theoretically provide backing to won't turn on the "Great Satan" once their neighbors have been subdued? Conquering the Sunnis might give the Shiites the feeling of invincibility, and they'll push for radical expansion elsewhere. Look at the violent Islamic expansion happening in Somalia as a possible example.
That's why my suggestion is to try and nudge a Shia on Shia fratricide first, and then back the Sunni to put the Shia down again in Iraq. That leaves the Shia back in their standard position, at the short end of the pole. No, it isn't fair, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a more suitable outcome for US interests, and counter to Iranian interests.

I completely realize that the scenario I painted means a significant blood letting in Iraq, and a far greater refugee flow out of Iraq than is now happening.

Not pretty.

DR
 
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