Russian rocket deliveries to Iran started

[firecoins]

Considering Russia's current problem with organized crime, Russia's current relationship with Tehran, Iran's propensity to employ terrorists, and western intelligence's poor performance overall recently as well as it's specific performance regarding non-state entities, I would think many more folks would be extremely concerned with terrorism involving WMDs.

yep

 

[Darth Rotor]

Forgotten Osirak so soon?

Nope. The assumption that such a raid will be successful (surprise and lousy IAD in Iraq and Saudi were contributing factors) strikes me as overly optimistic.

As to the "Persians/Arabs" matter, yes indeed, noted, however, the problem for Iran, once again at the political level, is that most of the powers in the Gulf region are indeed Arab, and the ripple effects of such an attack don't inlcude a lot of positive outcomes, not to mention risks of damage to Muslim holy sites in the Holy Land.

RL isn't a war game, it is a continuum. (An observation I often think was ignored in Washington in the run up to Iraq War.)

ETA: I want to clear something up here. I am not a fan of Iran, whoever is in charge or the front man, since about 1979 and the hostage deal. Iran has been the primary enemy of the USA in the Persian Gulf region for 27 years, the Ayatollah's have been consistent in their enmity with the US, and have been generally a royal pain in the arse to the US. They support Al Sadr with money, they sent Pasderan and agents provocateurs into the Balkans, they openly support a number of terrorist organiztions, to include Hezbollah, and are all around camel dung from my point of view.

I object to the Chicken Little approach to a point defense missile system, Tor 1, which has a range from 1-12 km, an operational envelope up to about 20,000 feet AGL, and is optimized for sub-sonic and helicopter type targets. The fire control system's ability to track and engage up to 48 targets is a nice selling point for a defensive missile system, designed to defend high value targets. (It is also jammable, spoofable, and other wise vulnerable to EW, as any radar guided missile system is.)

Conflating this capability, a legitimate upgrade of Iran's IAD network, with nuclear weapons is a red herring, it is sensationalism, and is as intellectually dishonest as the conflation between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda's 9-11 WTC operation. The context is wrong. The tactical and technical details are wrong. The attitude is hysterical.

IMO, the clear and present danger Iran poses to global security is mining the Straights and the Persian Gulf shipping lanes for the purpose of economic/political suasion versus US and Europe, and to a certain extent some of the Asian nations who rely on Gulf oil. Leverage. The noise about Israel is, as I see it, a smoke screen. The real damage they do to Israel is the style of political judo they achieved with the support for and arming of Hezbollah, and for that matter, the damage they still do to the US is the under the table support to some factions in Iraq, whose campaigns of violent power grabbing is a means of politically eroding US image, political influence, and stature in the Mid East. In the medium to long term, the nuclear matter is a letitimate concern, no question. What isn't a strategic concern is point defense.

If the Russians were selling Iran Scuds, Scud improvement packages, and-or extended range ballistic missiles, I'd be singing a different tune.

DR

 

[zenith-nadir]

...not to mention risks of damage to Muslim holy sites in the Holy Land. DR

The only holy site that means anything to muslims is the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. One could explode a small nuclear device in Haifa and not touch the Al-Aqsa Mosque 100 miles away in Jerusalem. One could explode a small nuclear device in Tel Aviv and not touch the Al-Aqsa Mosque 40 miles away in Jerusalem.

What I am trying to say is that there is no risk of damage to Muslim holy sites in the Holy Land if a terrorist targets either Tel Aviv, (pop 400,000), or Haifa, (pop 300,000) with a small nuclear device.

Ahmadinejad Predicts Collapse of Israel, U.S., U.K.

(Bloomberg) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted the collapse of Israel, the U.S. and Britain, attacking what he called their ``oppressive behavior.''

 

[Darth Rotor]

Ahmadinejad Predicts Collapse of Israel, U.S., U.K.

(Bloomberg) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted the collapse of Israel, the U.S. and Britain, attacking what he called their ``oppressive behavior.''

And Donald Rumsfeld predicted that the US would be greeted as liberators, and that it would only cost three billion in US funds for reconstruction efforts.

So what?

I see your point on the matter of a suitcase nuke in Israel, and find your reasoning sound. The matter of dead Muslims then becomes a matter of weighing the ends and means, and the risks of what the Arab world (not to mention anyone else) will do in retaliation.

I find this a more interesting topic, germane to the matter at hand: a possible shift among the real power brokers, the Ayatollahs.

I don't see Mahmoud as much more than an opportunist, and a front man.

Extremist Vying To Become Top Ayatollah

Cleric supports suicide attacks against Israel

By Colin Freeman, London Sunday Telegraph

TEHRAN -- A hard-line cleric who opposes all dialogue with the West is a leading contender to become Iran's next supreme spiritual leader.

In a move that would push the country even further into the diplomatic wilderness, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, 71, who publicly backs the use of suicide bombers against Israel, is campaigning to succeed Grand Ayatollah Ali Khameini, 67, as the head of the Islamic state.

Considered an extremist even by fellow mullahs, he was a fringe figure in Iran's theocracy until last year's election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a fellow fundamentalist who views him as his ideological mentor.

He is known to many Iranians as "Professor Crocodile" because of a notorious cartoon that depicted him weeping false tears over the imprisoning of a reformist journalist.

DR

 

[Huntster]

Originally Posted by Huntster
Forgotten Osirak so soon?

Nope. The assumption that such a raid will be successful (surprise and lousy IAD in Iraq and Saudi were contributing factors) strikes me as overly optimistic.

Not if U.S. Stealth technology is used.

However, Iranian atomic assets are likely spread out and not centralized, if they learned a lesson from Osirak, but if decent intelligence is available outlining as many locations as possible, Russian SAMS won't be much of a factor.

What's more, U.S. technological intelligence in this area is much stronger than human intelligence.[/quote]

As to the "Persians/Arabs" matter, yes indeed, noted, however, the problem for Iran, once again at the political level, is that most of the powers in the Gulf region are indeed Arab, and the ripple effects of such an attack don't inlcude a lot of positive outcomes, not to mention risks of damage to Muslim holy sites in the Holy Land.

All true, however, if Ahmadinejad is as dangerous as some are suggesting, I'm not sure such factors are deal busters.

I want to clear something up here. I am not a fan of Iran, whoever is in charge or the front man, since about 1979 and the hostage deal. Iran has been the primary enemy of the USA in the Persian Gulf region for 27 years, the Ayatollah's have been consistent in their enmity with the US, and have been generally a royal pain in the arse to the US. They support Al Sadr with money, they sent Pasderan and agents provocateurs into the Balkans, they openly support a number of terrorist organiztions, to include Hezbollah, and are all around camel dung from my point of view.

I feel the same way.

Conflating this capability, a legitimate upgrade of Iran's IAD network, with nuclear weapons is a red herring, it is sensationalism, and is as intellectually dishonest as the conflation between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda's 9-11 WTC operation. The context is wrong. The tactical and technical details are wrong. The attitude is hysterical.

I agree with that, too. Ahmadinejad as a threat to Israel is a decoy and diversion, and it will catch some fish in the net. I don't think those are high-value fish.

IMO, the clear and present danger Iran poses to global security is mining the Straights and the Persian Gulf shipping lanes for the purpose of economic/political suasion versus US and Europe, and to a certain extent some of the Asian nations who rely on Gulf oil. Leverage.

That is indeed a threat, but I don't see it as a current threat, or one becoming more imminent because of Iranian nuclear ambitions. As long as western navies continue to keep the Gulf and Straits patrolled and safe, that threat will not likely manifest itself.

The noise about Israel is, as I see it, a smoke screen. The real damage they do to Israel is the style of political judo they achieved with the support for and arming of Hezbollah, and for that matter, the damage they still do to the US is the under the table support to some factions in Iraq, whose campaigns of violent power grabbing is a means of politically eroding US image, political influence, and stature in the Mid East.

I couldn't have written it better myself.

In the medium to long term, the nuclear matter is a letitimate concern, no question.

And the Iranian nuclear matter, as much the concern that it is, is beginning to become old hat, after the Pakistani and Indian nuclear situations.

This situation worried me greatly:

U.S. intelligence agencies failed to detect any signs that India was preparing for the underground nuclear weapons blasts carried out yesterday and were embarrassed by New Delhi's extensive efforts to hide the tests.
The Indians engaged in elaborate "denial and deception" of U.S. satellites and other spying in the weeks leading up to the three tests at the nuclear center near Pokhran, in the northwestern state of Rajasthan bordering Pakistan.
"We had zero warning," said an administration official close to the CIA.
The intelligence failure has heightened concerns among U.S. officials about the ability to monitor cheating on a proposed international nuclear testing ban being considered for ratification by the Senate.
"There were three tests, and none were detected," said a Senate aide. "If our satellites can't tell us what was happening, what does that say about their ability to verify the [Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty]?"....

 

[zenith-nadir]

I see your point on the matter of a suitcase nuke in Israel, and find your reasoning sound.

DR

I'm not a nutcase, just wary of Ahmadinejad because he is so similar in the way he's telegraphing his intentions much like Hitler telegraphed his intentions in Mein Kampf.

I don't see Mahmoud as much more than an opportunist, and a front man.

DR

Definitely. He's the public face of the Mullahs, and those dudes are wack.

iranpressnews - "The world is presently at its most wicked. It is beyond human help. It requires only a nudge to implode and prepare for the divine ruler, the Saheb-ul-Zaman (the Mahdi, the Lord of the Age) to come and set it aright. It is the sacred duty and privilege of every Muslim to do all he can to hasten the death of the old world and the birth of the global Islamic Ummeh. Thus goes the thinking of Iran’s ruling mullahs and their hand-picked president Mahmood Ahmadinejad."

It's total David Koresh. That is why I feel they would have no problem, once armed, to send a terrorist proxy off to Tel Aviv or Haifa with a dirty bomb. They are that insane. They would never fire off a missle because everyone between Iran and Israel would [SIZE=-1]track that missile launch.[/SIZE]

 

[firecoins]

would anyone agree leaders who do thing in the name of God are wack jobs? Yes I include Bush but especially the Ayatollahs and both have their hands on the red button.

Yes I agree US intelligence has been a disaster which only increases my concern that Iran may use a nuke not caring about mutual destruction.

Don't tell me something stupid like I don't care about poor people while telling me I am using scare tactics.

 

[Darth Rotor]

I'm not a nutcase, just wary of Ahmadinejad because he is so similar in the way he's telegraphing his intentions much like Hitler telegraphed his intentions in Mein Kampf.

Definitely. He's the public face of the Mullahs, and those dudes are wack.

iranpressnews - "The world is presently at its most wicked. It is beyond human help. It requires only a nudge to implode and prepare for the divine ruler, the Saheb-ul-Zaman (the Mahdi, the Lord of the Age) to come and set it aright. It is the sacred duty and privilege of every Muslim to do all he can to hasten the death of the old world and the birth of the global Islamic Ummeh. Thus goes the thinking of Iran’s ruling mullahs and their hand-picked president Mahmood Ahmadinejad."

It's total David Koresh. That is why I feel they would have no problem, once armed, to send a terrorist proxy off to Tel Aviv or Haifa with a dirty bomb. They are that insane. They would never fire off a missle because everyone between Iran and Israel would [SIZE=-1]track that missile launch.[/SIZE]

Mein Kampf, Mein Schmampf: the generic level of anti Semitism was an enabling factor. Antipathy towards Jews was hardly confined to Germany in the interwar period. Why else the energy, and urgency, of the Zionist movement of the late 19th/early 20th century, that led to a successful outlet for those who feared the worst?

Letting Godwin go is good, and again, I found your original Koresh analogy far more worthy.

DR