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Reincarnation data & modelling

T'ai Chi

Penultimate Amazing
T
Joined
May 20, 2003
Messages
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I was thinking about how to assess claims of reincarnation that we often read about. A bonus is that examining claims of reincarnation could also be used to examine claims of Near Death Experiences, stages of reincarnation (hell, purgatory, etc.), if certain people get priority, and if there is one god or many gods.

The timeline of a person claiming to be reincarnated once is like:

past person birth date
(time elapses, past person's age)
past person death date
(time elapses, time between being 'born again')
present person birth date
(time elapses, present person's age)
present person death date

I think models, using queing theory (the branch of probability theory that looks at various aspects of waiting in lines), might be able to be constructed to model claims of reincarnation.

Out of the analysis, one could get things like:
-the average number of people in the system
-the average number of people waiting in the queue
-the average amount of time a person spends in the system
-the average amount of time a person spends waiting in the queue

Some possible models are:

M/M/1
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution exponential
-single server

M/M/1 having finite capacity
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution exponential
-single server
-Note: same as previous model, except there is a limit on the number of people in the system at the same time- there can be no more than N people in the system at any time. So if someone 'dies' and there are already N people in the system, then that person does not enter the system. Maybe they go back to living, and this could help examine claims of Near Death Experiences.

M/M/1 with bulk service
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution exponential
-single server
-Note: server is able to serve two people at the same time

M/M/1 x2: an open system
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution exponential
-single server
-Note: person exits one M/M/1 system to enter another M/M/1 system. This might help examing claims of moving through different stages; purgatory, hell, etc.

M/G/1
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution is general
-single server

M/G/1 with random-sized batch arrivals
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution is general
-single server
-arrival consists not of a single person but of a random number of persons

M/G/1 with priority queues
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution is general
-single server
-persons are classified into types and given service priority according to type
-Note: priority could be used to examine claims of priority given to those who do good works, or to those who are religious

G/M/1
-arrival distribution general
-service distribution is exponential
-single server

M/M/k
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution is exponential
-k servers
-Note: perhaps the single server models can examine claims of a single god and the multi-server models can examine claims of many gods

G/M/k
-arrival distribution general
-service distribution is exponential
-k servers

M/G/k
-arrival distribution exponential
-service distribution is general
-k servers

Could be fun. :)

Is there any database of persons claiming reincarnation?
 
Given that all reincarnation tales are post-hoc anecdotes, where the re-born and the family have had plenty of time to make up anything they want, what is the purpose of collecting these fairytales?

It sure isn't for "fun": When you dress up such fantasies in statistical lingo, you are assigning credibility to something that has no credibility at all.
 
I'm not a statistician, but what do you do when two living people claim to have been the same person in the past?

Your database would seem to need to keep track of that for anything to be meaningful.

And then you would eventually need a methodology to determine who was the real reincarnation of Napoleon, Cleopatra, etc.

Without that, isn't it just nonsense?
 
What's the point of models without any data to fit to them? Until you come up with a meaingful way of determining that someone really has been reincarnated and isn't just making things up, the entire thing is just a complete waste of time.

In fact, I'll rephrase that. The entire thing is just a complete waste of time.
 
Kopji said:
..what do you do when two living people claim to have been the same person in the past?
Click to expand...

That doesn't seem to be too big of a problem. It might even be able to be used as an argument against reincarnation if enough people claim to be the same person.

And then you would eventually need a methodology to determine who was the real reincarnation of Napoleon, Cleopatra, etc.
Click to expand...

Well obviously! If this could be done there would obviously be no need to do anything in the first place.
 
T'ai Chi said:
Well obviously! If this could be done there would obviously be no need to do anything in the first place.
Click to expand...

But you will have to determine this, before you start collecting the data. Otherwise, how will you know that you aren't counting the same incarnation more than once?

Another nail in the coffin.
 
Damn, you all are good! I ran thru the OP's list and just sat here scratching my head saying, "huh?"
 
I suppose if there are people out there drawing up complex design schematics for ships that were featured on one episode of Voyager from the second season, this is as good a use of your time as any.

Since homo sapiens did not have a start date but instead eveloved from other hominids, how do you model the population? How far back do you go? Is there a single date in pre-history where we know the population of the planet with any accuracy? And what do you do about the fact that population has not steadily increased but sometimes decreased and decreased drastically. For example, between 1347 and 1357, one out of every three Europeans died.
 
T'ai Chi said:
That doesn't seem to be too big of a problem. It might even be able to be used as an argument against reincarnation if enough people claim to be the same person.

...Well obviously! If this could be done there would obviously be no need to do anything in the first place.
Click to expand...

A lot of people seem to claim to be reincarnations of famous people. I'm not sure this kind of data disproves anything about reincarnation, just that we need better data than personal stories if it is to be meaningful.

Also, the raw data could support other conclusions, perhaps something like genetic memory or unusual dream states. Maybe plausible, maybe not - but we can't really make conclusions about our data yet. Reincarnation is a conclusion.
 
Kopji said:
Also, the raw data could support other conclusions, perhaps something like genetic memory or unusual dream states. Maybe plausible, maybe not - but we can't really make conclusions about our data yet. Reincarnation is a conclusion.
Click to expand...

Or the already well-known psychological tendencies people have of overestimating their own importance and wanting to have power over their own lives as well as the brain's ability to create memories to justify current beliefs.
 
Loss Leader said:
I suppose if there are people out there drawing up complex design schematics for ships that were featured on one episode of Voyager from the second season, this is as good a use of your time as any.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure why my use of my free time should be any of your concern.
 
logical muse said:
And I'm the reincarnation of an alien. From the future.
Click to expand...

And if you report that in a real print venue with your real name and testify to its seriousness I'd be glad to include your details in the database of people claiming such things.
 
T'ai Chi said:
And if you report that in a real print venue with your real name and testify to its seriousness I'd be glad to include your details in the database of people claiming such things.
Click to expand...

How many cases do you have in your database so far?
 
When Claus rationalizes emotional bias with statistics and probability, Tai Ch'i rationalizes statistics and probability with emotional bias. Thus the wheel is turned.
 
Who's to say that a person can't be reincarnated into multiple beings at the same time? Ergo, multiple people claiming to be the same person in reincarnated form might be telling the truth. So I would think the first step is to prove that reincarnation exists before one goes applying Poisson processes to model it...
 
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