How To Build an A-Bomb

[Ziggurat]

Which of those countries (India, Pakistan, Libya) was subject to persistent UN weapons inspections, to the level where "uncooperation" consisted of not letting the UN take suspected scientists and their families completely out of the country for interrogation?

You think the sanctions and inspections could have been maintained indefinitely? No, they could not. The inspections were specifically designed to expire once he came into compliance - we never had the option of maintaining them indefinitely.

As for taking scientists outside the country, that was something we had to fight tooth and nail for, and Saddam only conceeded when he thought we really were going to invade. We could not maintain that level of threat indefinitely.

We aren't talking about trying to interpret satellite photos here, or guessing on escorted visits.

Which is EXACTLY where we'd be back to if Saddam ever chose to comply.

The UN and the IAEA had complete access to go whereever they wanted whenever they wanted.

Only nominally. He withdrew that cooperation in 1998, and faced no significant penalties because of it. And yet, even with all that access, the IAEA still never uncovered Saddam's crash program (he had more than one program to produce nukes) - it was only a high-level defector, Saddam's son-in-law, who tipped us off to its existence.

If they were held up, they were allowed to complain, at which point, they would get pulled from the country and we would bomb it (like Clinton did).

After which - what, exactly? Oh yeah, nothing.

 

[Ziggurat]

In case you've been in a comma for the past 15 years, he had no fissionable martial, and not even the tools to make the components of a bomb, thanks to agressive, and effective, sanctions.

In case YOU haven't been paying attention, he had plenty of raw uranium. And as I already mentioned, the sanctions were not designed to be, and never intended to be, permanent. Placing faith in them to prevent any future weapons activity makes absolutely no sense, since that was never their purpose.

 

[ImaginalDisc]

In case YOU haven't been paying attention, he had plenty of raw uranium. And as I already mentioned, the sanctions were not designed to be, and never intended to be, permanent. Placing faith in them to prevent any future weapons activity makes absolutely no sense, since that was never their purpose.

Assuming you're right, how exactly was he going to enrich it, and why would we go after Saddam rather than Kim, considering Kim was, and now clearly is, much closer? If the goal is to prevent nuclear profilferation, Iraw wasn't a priority target.

 

[Ziggurat]

Assuming you're right, how exactly was he going to enrich it,

You don't have to assume I'm right: you can look it up yourself on the IAEA's own documentation. He had hundreds of tons of uranium ore and yellowcake, mostly sitting at Al Tuwaitha, that the IAEA documented but never removed. And he would enrich it the same way almost everyone else does: centrifuges. Ten years down the road, with sanctions quite possibly expired many years before, how much confidence would you really have that Saddam wouldn't be back in the nuclear weapons game? Hell, look how badly the IAEA is doing with regards to Iran: if sanctions expired, we wouldn't be able to do much diplomatically even if we KNEW he was starting to enrich uranium.

and why would we go after Saddam rather than Kim, considering Kim was, and now clearly is, much closer? If the goal is to prevent nuclear profilferation, Iraw wasn't a priority target.

Because Saddam was a problem which could be solved by invasion. North Korea is a very different beast. We cannot invade it without cooperation from South Korea, South Korea has absolutely no interest in any such endeavor, and even if they were interested, the likely cost of such an invasion would be orders of magnitude larger. But unlike Iraq, there are other possible options for applying pressure to North Korea. They are dependent upon foreign aid for their survival. That gives us quite a bit of potential leverage, particularly if we can get China's support. But China won't support an invasion (and might even react by acting against Taiwan), and their support will take (and has taken) time to build up.

 

[geni]

How, exactly, do you figure that?

The fact of the matter is, we have no way of determining if a country is on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons. The IAEA has never, in its entire history, uncovered a calndestine nuclear weapons program. Our own intelligence agencies have been completely unreliable - you may want to point to Iraq as being an example of them overestimating capability, but they've UNDERestimated capabilities more often than the reverse (both Pakistan and India took us by surprise, and it was only serendipity which led us to stopping Libya's nuclear program). This was a problem that wasn't going away.

Both India and paskitan had outside assitance in makeing weapons grade materials.

 

[geni]

You don't have to assume I'm right: you can look it up yourself on the IAEA's own documentation. He had hundreds of tons of uranium ore and yellowcake, mostly sitting at Al Tuwaitha, that the IAEA documented but never removed. And he would enrich it the same way almost everyone else does: centrifuges. Ten years down the road, with sanctions quite possibly expired many years before, how much confidence would you really have that Saddam wouldn't be back in the nuclear weapons game?

Fairly. With no outside help it would be very difficult and running centifuges on any scale without anyone finding out would be tricky.

Hell, look how badly the IAEA is doing with regards to Iran: if sanctions expired, we wouldn't be able to do much diplomatically even if we KNEW he was starting to enrich uranium.

So? A few cruise missiles and end of program. The reason little can be done about Iran is that most of the forces that could do something are somewhat busy.

 

[HeavyAaron]

My brothers have escaped you!

Stay a while and listen!

Aaron

 

[Ziggurat]

Both India and paskitan had outside assitance in makeing weapons grade materials.

And you don't think Saddam could get outside assistance once sanctions were lifted? Remember: the sanctions were NOT designed to last for ever. They were intended, from the start, to be finite in duration. If Saddam ever complied, we would be unable to keep the sanctions from being lifted.

 

[Ziggurat]

So? A few cruise missiles and end of program. The reason little can be done about Iran is that most of the forces that could do something are somewhat busy.

I'm sorry, but this is self-contradictory. Our cruise missiles are NOT busy in Iraq. They're quite idle at the moment. If cruise missiles were all it took to take care of the problem of a hostile country's nuclear weapons program, then having troops tied down in Iraq does not restrict us in acting against Iran's program.

 

[WildCat]

So? A few cruise missiles and end of program.

Only if the warheads on those cruise missiles are hydrogen bombs. That would end their program right quick, I imagine.

 

[geni]

I'm sorry, but this is self-contradictory. Our cruise missiles are NOT busy in Iraq. They're quite idle at the moment. If cruise missiles were all it took to take care of the problem of a hostile country's nuclear weapons program, then having troops tied down in Iraq does not restrict us in acting against Iran's program.

If your army is free you:

a) have a fall back plan

b) have a reasonable chance of threatening countries into allowing inspections.


The other issue is that while the cruise missile method is probably fairly effective against uranium enrichment as long as it is done on the surface it is like to have more problems dealing with plutonium based weapons.

 

[geni]

And you don't think Saddam could get outside assistance once sanctions were lifted?

Who from?

Remember: the sanctions were NOT designed to last for ever.

Well no sadam is nearly 70.

They were intended, from the start, to be finite in duration. If Saddam ever complied, we would be unable to keep the sanctions from being lifted.

Evidences suggest otherwise.

 

[ghost707]

Having schematics and assembly instructions for a Ferrari doesn't make you a race car driver.

You sure are trusting of a regime that used chemical weapons to kill 5000 of it's own citizens.

By the way, what did happen to all the chemical weapons that the U.N. inspectors cataloged?

 

[steverino]

Having schematics and assembly instructions for a Ferrari doesn't make you a race car driver.

Maybe not. But it MAY give you the ability to build a crappy Ferrari and drive it wildly.

 

[Ziggurat]

Who from?

How about North Korea? Or perhaps Pakistan? Or did you forget that AQ Khan's network got shut down in large part because of the Iraq war?

Well no sadam is nearly 70.

Yes, and Castro is 80 and only just giving up the reigns of power. And his sons would have replaced him. You think they were better?

Evidences suggest otherwise.

No, I'm afraid it doesn't. The inspections were explicitly to verify disarmament, at which point they were mandated to expire. They were not intended to MAINTAIN any sort of disarmament on a continuing basis, and there was no legal basis on which to do that. It was not part of the ceasefire agreement - any act to extend the sanctions indefinitely would have to be imposed unilaterally by the UNSC without any agreement from Iraq (in case you forgot, Iraq AGREED to inspections), and there's no way in hell China would agree to something like that (they get touchy about setting precendents that allow interference in the internal affairs of dictatorships).

Inspections only lasted as long as they did because Saddam wanted to play a bluffing game by refusing to come into compliance. Had he ever decided to come into compliance, inspections and sanctions would have collapsed, and he (or his sons) could go right back to embarking upon his nuclear ambitions.

 

[geni]

How about North Korea?

Lack signifcant amounts of plutonium. NKs has been happy to sell technology not material.

Or perhaps Pakistan? Or did you forget that AQ Khan's network got shut down in large part because of the Iraq war?

No evidence of a link there.

Yes, and Castro is 80 and only just giving up the reigns of power. And his sons would have replaced him. You think they were better?

Perdicting political sucession isn't as straight forward as you try to make out.

No, I'm afraid it doesn't. The inspections were explicitly to verify disarmament, at which point they were mandated to expire. They were not intended to MAINTAIN any sort of disarmament on a continuing basis, and there was no legal basis on which to do that. It was not part of the ceasefire agreement - any act to extend the sanctions indefinitely would have to be imposed unilaterally by the UNSC without any agreement from Iraq (in case you forgot, Iraq AGREED to inspections), and there's no way in hell China would agree to something like that (they get touchy about setting precendents that allow interference in the internal affairs of dictatorships).

Inspections only lasted as long as they did because Saddam wanted to play a bluffing game by refusing to come into compliance. Had he ever decided to come into compliance, inspections and sanctions would have collapsed, and he (or his sons) could go right back to embarking upon his nuclear ambitions.

How exactly was he not compliening before the invasion. It would have been trival to keep throwing acusations around untill the heat death of the universe.

 

[Mephisto]

You sure are trusting of a regime that used chemical weapons to kill 5000 of it's own citizens.

By the way, what did happen to all the chemical weapons that the U.N. inspectors cataloged?

And you're very trusting of the regime that sold them those weapons.

 

[WildCat]

And you're very trusting of the regime that sold them those weapons.

Provide the country, and the evidence...

 

[Ziggurat]

Lack signifcant amounts of plutonium. NKs has been happy to sell technology not material.

But that, and time, are all that's needed. Iraq had plenty of raw uranium, and a lack of raw uranium has never been the important obstacle on the path to getting nukes.

No evidence of a link there.

What do you mean? That Saddam hadn't been a customer? So what? Doesn't mean he couldn't be in the future. Or do you mean no link between the Iraq war and breaking Khan's network? Well, that's simply wrong: Qaddafi spilled the beans on Libya's nuclear weapons program (a program that the IAEA believed did not exist, lest you forget) right after Saddam's capture, and Qaddafi stated that avoiding Saddam's fate was one of his motives. The information from Libya (which had been one of Khan's customers) is what forced Musharaff to confront Khan and shut down his network.

Perdicting political sucession isn't as straight forward as you try to make out.

Not with certainty, sure. But the risk was there, and almost certainly would have been there even if some other Ba'athist rose to the top instead. This statement is no more than a claim that maybe we wouldn't face this looming problem. Well, that wasn't good enough.

How exactly was he not compliening before the invasion.

I don't know how he wasn't "compliening", but if you want to know how he wasn't complying, look at the UN reports where they detail his continued non-compliance. That judgment wasn't being made by the US, it was being made by the inspectors. It included activities such as constructing ballistic missiles with ranges longer than permitted - that wasn't just an accusation, that was proven.

It would have been trival to keep throwing acusations around untill the heat death of the universe.

Are you suggesting that as a solution? Keep hurling charges against him, even if they're false, in order to maintain sanctions indefinitely?

 

[Darth Rotor]

Stay a while and listen!

Aaron

Our Farnham
Who art in Tristram
Drinking be thy game
Thy story done
More drinks to come
At Ogdens
As it is in Tristram

Give us this day
Your besotted head
And forgive us your headaches
As we forgive the headaches rum gives us

And lead us not unto the caves
But deliver us from lava maws

For thine is the whiskey
And the porter
Forever in Ogden's.

Yes, I admit, a few too many whacks on the head by Blood Knights, back in the day. That was a fun game to play drunk.

DR