North Korea threatens US with nuclear strike!

[Flo]

He's the head of everything because he trusts no-one else to be the head of anything. Paranoid schizophrenic, I'm betting.

And I can't help but think that a few hundred thou' in the right military pocket in NK will bring about a very rapid regime change, and "Dear Leader" will vanish just as fast as his erstwhile detractors did. Then, perhaps, sensible talks may prevail.

Very interesting article on North Korea possible collape in the Oct issue of The Atlantic

 

[Beerina]

Whatever happened to that poster that used to take up for NK in a serious way...showed us a picture of NK's (only?) swimming pool, told us the satillite photo's of a dark NK was because they were doing an air-raid drill.

I liked that guy.

Back in the mid '80's, those of us old enough to troll political BBSs recall there was no shortage of communist apologists. You'd say something like, "Look at the Berlin Wall! The communists have to put up a wall to keep their own people from escaping"

And they'd respond with, "Oh, but our government prevents you from escaping to a communist country, too!"

It was purely text-based, so no irony meter explosions were allowed.

 

[headscratcher4]

The issue with nuclear proliferation has never been that a nuclear nation would itself launch a nuclear attack at another country, but that it would manufacture a bomb and then sell it clandestinely to a terror group who would detonate it in another country.

North Korea is desperate for funds.

If a suitcase nuke were to go off in London or Paris, against whom would we move? North Korea? Iran? Pakistan? Could it have been nuclear material that disappeared form the Soviet Union when the wall fell? What if the terrorists who took credit for the blast were all incinerated in the blast, the only evidence of their responsibility the videotape they sent to Al Jazeera just before destroying Rome, and leaving no evidence of how they got the bomb?

That's the nightmare scenario of rogue nuclear states.

Indeed...perhaps we just need a public statement...a bomb goes off from a terrorists...N.Korea and Iran cease to exist as livable landscapes.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Very interesting article on North Korea possible collape in the Oct issue of The Atlantic

Thanks for the link. Kaplan is so good at what he does.

Dr

 

[geni]

If a suitcase nuke were to go off in London or Paris, against whom would we move? North Korea? Iran? Pakistan? Could it have been nuclear material that disappeared form the Soviet Union when the wall fell? What if the terrorists who took credit for the blast were all incinerated in the blast, the only evidence of their responsibility the videotape they sent to Al Jazeera just before destroying Rome, and leaving no evidence of how they got the bomb?

That's the nightmare scenario of rogue nuclear states.

There is no evidence that anyone has ever made a suitcase nuke. The closest would be the W54 which would fit into a large backpack (however US tactics were to have two men to move it about. It is just about posible that the US could build a suitcase nuke as long as we are talking about a large suitcase. Russia might be able to do it. Britian got a lot of info from US nuclear tests so there is a faint posibilty that Britian could do it. North Korea? Iran? Pakistan? No.

 

[Skeptic]

Whatever happened to that poster that used to take up for NK in a serious way...showed us a picture of NK's (only?) swimming pool, told us the satillite photo's of a dark NK was because they were doing an air-raid drill.

I liked that guy.

IIRC, he also--in another thread--claimed to be an ultra-Orthodox jew who reduced a racist to tears after the latter shouted a racist slur at him in the stread by showing him the error of his ways.

Call me suspicious, but I suspect the number of pro-North-Korea ultra-orthodox jews with internet access is somewhat limited, and possibly he was pulling our leg...

 

[geni]

Whatever happened to that poster that used to take up for NK in a serious way...showed us a picture of NK's (only?) swimming pool, told us the satillite photo's of a dark NK was because they were doing an air-raid drill.

I liked that guy.

That would be Huzington.


We ran into a NK supporter on wikipedia. Someone managed to figure out who he was and yes he probably was recivieing payments from NK

 

[Rob Lister]

Thanks for the link. Kaplan is so good at what he does.

Dr

He does do what he does well. At risk of thread derail, I took note of this description of a NK attack on the south:

North Korea’s lone hope would be that the hourly carnage it could produce—in the time between the first artillery barrage on Seoul and the beginning of a robust military response by South Korea and the United States—would lead the South Korean left, abetted by the United Nations and elements of the global media, to cry out for diplomacy and a negotiated settlement as an alternative to violence.

It speaks for itself, IMNSHO.

 

[Correa Neto]

Suitcase bombs are out, if I understood the analysts (BBC, CNN et al.) NK would not yet be able to make a nuke small enough to be carried by a missile.

Lets suppose its about the size of Little Boy or even Fat Man (and of course, that it works). How could such device be deployed? One could put it inside a commercial airliner and detonate it when flying a city. Another possibility would be to moor a ship with the bomb at some port and detonate. If the winds are blowing from the sea, radioactive material could be spreaded over a large area (remember that underwater atomic test?). Both methods (as well as others) could be used either by a country or by some terrorist group in possesion of the weapon.

In both cases, even a fizzle would cause large casualities. Not to mention the damage to the economy of the targeted country and to the whole world(stock markets plunging, etc.).

 

[drkitten]

Suitcase bombs are out, if I understood the analysts (BBC, CNN et al.) NK would not yet be able to make a nuke small enough to be carried by a missile. How could such device be deployed?

You can't be serious. Simply wrap a bale of marijuana around it (or several bales around the components) and then take it anywhere you like.

 

[Correa Neto]

Uhm... Lousy posting of mine... I intended to talk about a larger device... Post edited.

Anyway, a nuke surrounded by marijuana would have an interesting fall out...

 

[Darth Rotor]

Uhm... Lousy posting of mine... I intended to talk about a larger device... Post edited.

Anyway, a nuke surrounded by marijuana would have an interesting fall out...

Pyongyang Green: one hit, and you glow.

DR

 

[marksman]

Nuke North Korea if it happens. Use the "that's where the evidence points to" reasoning.

Indeed...perhaps we just need a public statement...a bomb goes off from a terrorists...N.Korea and Iran cease to exist as livable landscapes.

Russia and China would never agree to a policy like that. Heck, France might not even agree to a policy like that. I know you are both critics of Bush's "go it alone" diplomacy. I doubt you are serious that America should publicly declare it's intention to level two nations in case a third entity should detonate a nuke in a Western city.

There is no evidence that anyone has ever made a suitcase nuke.

Suitcase bombs are out, if I understood the analysts (BBC, CNN et al.) NK would not yet be able to make a nuke small enough to be carried by a missile.

Right. I apologize for the incorrect use of "suitcase." A nuclear device like the one possibly set off by North Korea could be placed on a tanker and set off in a port, such as London, New York, Sydney, Copenhagen or Los Angeles. As stated, even a misfunctioning nuke like North Korea has could kill tens of thousands.

How would the world respond if the organization claiming responsiblity for the bombing could not be directly traced to NK, Iran, Pakistan or any nation that might be thought to supply them with nukes. What if they claimed to have received the nuke on the black market, implying they got it from someone in the former Soviet Union? How are we to respond?

China and the Russians will not abide a policy in which America threatens to blow up any nation that feasibly has the ability to nuke a city.

 

[geni]

How would the world respond if the organization claiming responsiblity for the bombing could not be directly traced to NK, Iran, Pakistan or any nation that might be thought to supply them with nukes. What if they claimed to have received the nuke on the black market, implying they got it from someone in the former Soviet Union? How are we to respond?

Depends. Assumeing we are considering a senario where Iran has nukes then we do one of two things:

If the weapon is uranium based we nuke iran

If the weapon is plutonium based we nuke NK

China and the Russians will not abide a policy in which America threatens to blow up any nation that feasibly has the ability to nuke a city.

Russsia has it's own problems with islamic radicals and china is unlikely to do much in such a case.

 

[Darth Rotor]

China and the Russians will not abide a policy in which America threatens to blow up any nation that feasibly has the ability to nuke a city.

Isn't multi-polar deterrence fun? For each nation with nukes above 2, it isn't get additively or multiplicitavely harder, it becomes exponentially more difficult, IMO. Wny? Even with treaties and mutual bloc alignments, no party to an alignment foregoes sovereign action. Also, intentions are rarely understood with 100% fidelity.

With n = two players, deterrence is difficulty "X."
With n = three to however many players, the deterrence and policy fit has a difficulty of roughly

x^(N-1)​

Let the game theory experts commence in arriving at an 80% solution. What we have at the moment is rather lacking.

DR

 

[drkitten]

Let the game theory experts commence in arriving at an 80% solution. What we have at the moment is rather lacking.

Go for the trivial solution. Destroy all rival nuclear powers. Suffer no rival before your supreme might. Drive them before you. Hear the lamentations of their women and revel in the glory that is You.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Go for the trivial solution. Destroy all rival nuclear powers. Suffer no rival before your supreme might. Drive them before you. Hear the lamentations of their women and revel in the glory that is You.

OK, do I have a second to drkitten's motion? Show of hands? Anyone? Bueller?

DR

 

[Crowbot]

I think Kim Jong knows exactly how to psychologically provoke the U.S. into attacking him. I think this because as an American myself every time I read a news article about North Korea I feel this overwhelming need to choke Kim Jong to death with my bare hands.

 

[Vorticity]

Suitcase bombs are out, if I understood the analysts (BBC, CNN et al.) NK would not yet be able to make a nuke small enough to be carried by a missile.

Lets suppose its about the size of Little Boy or even Fat Man (and of course, that it works).

Just for reference, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_boy, we have the following:

"...The Mk I "Little Boy" was 10 feet (3 m) in length, 28 inches (71 cm) in diameter and weighed 8,900 lb (4000 kg)..."

How could such device be deployed?

How about this:

1. Load the "Little Boy" onto an 80 foot yacht off the shore of North Korea.

2. Cross the Pacific.

3. Under cover of darkness, run the yacht aground somewhere remote on the coast of Oregon, or perhaps Canada.

4. Your on-shore compatriots help you unload the nuke onto the back of a rented flat bed truck, surround it with hay bales, and cover it with a tarp.

5. Abandon (or scuttle?) the boat.

6. Stock up on coffee and make a nonstop, high-speed highway journey to downtown New York (or the city of your choice).

7. Press button.

8. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Plausible?

 

[Darth Rotor]

Just for reference, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_boy, we have the following:

"...The Mk I "Little Boy" was 10 feet (3 m) in length, 28 inches (71 cm) in diameter and weighed 8,900 lb (4000 kg)..."

How about this:

1. Load the "Little Boy" onto an 80 foot yacht off the shore of North Korea.

2. Cross the Pacific.

3. Under cover of darkness, run the yacht aground somewhere remote on the coast of Oregon, or perhaps Canada.

4. Your on-shore compatriots help you unload the nuke onto the back of a rented flat bed truck, surround it with hay bales, and cover it with a tarp.

5. Abandon (or scuttle?) the boat.

6. Stock up on coffee and make a nonstop, high-speed highway journey to downtown New York (or the city of your choice).

7. Press button.

8. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Plausible?

While the open ocean bit comes right out of Bernard Cornwell's novel 'Scoundrel" and is plausible, your run into a snag on the cross country journey: truck weighing scales present a way to get nabbed. Your scenario has a higher probability of success on the West Coast, by reducing probability of unintended snags like an open scale on the way to a west coast city.

Note: If you press the button from too close to the ground zero, you don't get to lather, nor to rinse, nor to repeat. You are as one with the cosmos.

DR