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Will "values voters" finally catch on?

IXP said:
As I understand it, the Republicans have managed, in the last few elections, to motivate a segment of voters who did not vote before with their "values" platform. Even before the Foley situation, they were losing these people because they were not delivering what these new voters thought they were voting for, i.e. abortion is still legal, no gay marriage amendement, not even a flag burning amendment.

IXP
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But then what would the pull out in election years?

You really have to respect how much the republicans have mannaged to be about pure naked power and little else at the moment
 
Hutch said:
I think that it will cause the religious conservatives who are now the backbone of the Republicans not to desert the party, but to take even stronger action to dominate it, to 'cleanse' it (my terminology) of those who corrupt it, both politically and morally, so that a truly Christian leadership can take over running the Republicans and restore true Moral and Christian leadership to the United States as the Founding Fathers had intended...

But that is how I think they will react. We shall see. IMHO as always.
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If what you predict does happen, I suspect the non gun owning urban elites will start to feel a bit nervous about sectarian violence in the US. The red staters tend to be armed. If the Jacksonian strain of US polity is aroused, it tends to calm down only after exacting a blood debt.

So, I am with you in desiring that continued polarization not accelerate. Per Rodney King: "Can't we all just get a bong (hit)?" (I don't think I got that right.) :p

DR
 
I suspect the non gun owning urban elites will start to feel a bit nervous about sectarian violence in the US. The red staters tend to be armed.
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dr,

Are you seriously suggesting America is on the brink of a civil war, with red staters using their guns against blue staters?
 
marksman said:
dr,

Are you seriously suggesting America is on the brink of a civil war, with red staters using their guns against blue staters?
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At present? No. There is some hope that American cultural schism over the past generation can be healed.

If the polarization continues without mitigation, however, I expect a civil war, or at least civil strife like a Rodney King riot X 10 in a number of large cities. I"d predict ruptures along predominantly ethnic-cultural lines. The ugliest of prospects is a multi sided, race/ethnicity based war on our soil.

The "red staters" would be less likely to slaughter the "urban elites" than such crooks already in the urban areas -- red state or blue state is irrelevant in this sense -- who have guns, and who will exploit their ability to use force if the "thin veneer" cracks. If you look at the thinly veiled racialism in the CT mindset, and the alleged appeal that holds on the storied "x % of the population" I'd say there is fertile mass psychological ground for a nasty acting out along those lines. What I can't fathom is what a catalyst, or series of catalysts, would be that line the factors up.

Hell, marksman, some street gangs already subjugate people via armed means in LA and Dallas now. Likewise in most major urban areas.

The information age seems to have had the effect of reinforcing tribal behavior -- generically -- and across the board social balkanization, an outcome at odds with the vigorous attempts to exploit the capacity to bring people closer together. The internet is a fascnating example of that dynamic in action each day.

Tipping point not yet reached in either direction, and I am not sure how far from one we are.

If civil strife turns to civil war, I suspect you'll see the US National Guard fracture the way the Iraqi National Guard and Army fracture, and dissolve as an effective fighting force. Mass desertions and AWOL counts would be the first symptom of that internal collapse. What would happen in the US regular Army would likely be what happened in the civil war: some would remain true to the colors, and some would take R. E. Lee's course, and return home.

DR
 
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Believe it or not, Rodney King was ten years ago and we haven't seen violence like than in half a decade. New York subways are as safe as they have been in a half-century on an absolute measure and are safer than they've ever been on a per capita basis.

The idea that America is falling apart socially at the seams is not evidenced anywhere except the fact that half the nation keeps voting for GOP candidates and half keep voting for Democrats and pundits for each side likes to fling mud.

America is not falling apart. Gangs are not tearing the country apart. Blue staters are not seceding from the Union. In two years there will be a new President, blue or red, for half the nation to despise. Life goes on. This is not 1972. Heck, its not even 1852.
 
marksman said:
Believe it or not, Rodney King was ten years ago and we haven't seen violence like than in half a decade. New York subways are as safe as they have been in a half-century on an absolute measure and are safer than they've ever been on a per capita basis.

The idea that America is falling apart socially at the seams is not evidenced anywhere except the fact that half the nation keeps voting for GOP candidates and half keep voting for Democrats and pundits for each side likes to fling mud.

America is not falling apart. Gangs are not tearing the country apart. Blue staters are not seceding from the Union. In two years there will be a new President, blue or red, for half the nation to despise. Life goes on. This is not 1972. Heck, its not even 1852.
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I sincerely hope your assessment is correct. :) I don't want the US to have another civil war, nor civil strife as I outlined.

Yes, this isn't 1972, but I don't find that any reason to applaud your optimistic assessment. It is difficult in the extreme to measure what is in people's hearts, and what symbols and stimuli they actually respond to. That is why I am both uncertain, and not sanguine, about prospects for healing some of the social rifts our society currently shows.

DR
 
hgc said:
The central theme of the Republican appeal to this block is homophobia.
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I don't think it is - sure, that element may occassionally be present, but that's really not at the heart of religious conservative support for Republicans. Which is why the religious right isn't going to abandon the Republican party over Folley, and why your speculation to that effect is really just wishful thinking on your part.
 
History serves as a pretty good guide and does not support the idea that the sky is falling. It took a lot to get America to enter a civil war, which was eighty years in the making. We didn't have a civil war over Viet Nam. We're not going to have one because the GOP have been controlling Congress for a mere 12 years.
 
Ziggurat said:
I don't think it is - sure, that element may occassionally be present, but that's really not at the heart of religious conservative support for Republicans. Which is why the religious right isn't going to abandon the Republican party over Folley, and why your speculation to that effect is really just wishful thinking on your part.
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Foley resigned. Whatever his ethical errors and crimes, at least he got that part right. He knew he was wrong, and rather than bluster or demand someone prove it, he mea culpa'd, tossed out some chaffe and flares via his shark (drink/abused by cleric) and went to ground in rehab.

I don't think (absent the chaffe and flares move, which I found pathetic) he could have done much more to say "my bad" and by resigning salvage a trace of his honor, after having behaved so dishonorably.

DR
 
marksman said:
History serves as a pretty good guide and does not support the idea that the sky is falling. It took a lot to get America to enter a civil war, which was eighty years in the making. We didn't have a civil war over Viet Nam. We're not going to have one because the GOP have been controlling Congress for a mere 12 years.
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How is the GOP in congress the issue? The silent majority has been around since before Nixon, and they began to find their voice with Reagan. Values voters are but an aspect of the fracture. I am as concerned by those so alienated (about 35% of the voting public) by the system that they place themselves outside of it. It only takes a small, violent minority to stir up serious trouble. (Note the problems the Islamic world is having with modestly sized, but vigorously active persons.) Sam Adams' Sons of Liberty, and for that matter the leaders of the Revolution, were hardly a majority, but were energetic and willing to use violent means.

Why do you assume that "it can't happen here?"

DR
 
Darth Rotor said:
How is the GOP in congress the issue? The silent majority has been around since before Nixon, and they began to find their voice with Reagan. Values voters are but an aspect of the fracture. I am as concerned by those so alienated (about 35% of the voting public) by the system that they place themselves outside of it. It only takes a small, violent minority to stir up serious trouble. (Note the problems the Islamic world is having with modestly sized, but vigorously active persons.) Sam Adams' Sons of Liberty, and for that matter the leaders of the Revolution, were hardly a majority, but were energetic and willing to use violent means.

Why do you assume that "it can't happen here?"

DR
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Can you inform me about this "silent majority"? Specifically, could you elaborate about the majority part?

Daredelvis
 
daredelvis said:
Can you inform me about this "silent majority"? Specifically, could you elaborate about the majority part?

Daredelvis
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No.

You are invited to look up Richard Nixon, and his remarks on the "Silent Majority" on your own time." Google is your friend.

Happy reading.

DR
 
Ziggurat said:
I don't think it is - sure, that element may occassionally be present, but that's really not at the heart of religious conservative support for Republicans. Which is why the religious right isn't going to abandon the Republican party over Folley, and why your speculation to that effect is really just wishful thinking on your part.
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Hard to prove one way or the other. "The central theme" was probably a little hyperbolic on my part. But I wouldn't downplay the importance to many, many people. And there's no doubt that the party plays it up -- witness the gay marriage constitutional amendment attempt.

My speculation is certainly wishful thinking, but it may also may coincide with real impact. Lots of noises of disappointment are being made. Where else where they go? They could stay home. That's not my most preferred outcome, but it'll do in a pinch.
 
Darth Rotor said:
How is the GOP in congress the issue? The silent majority has been around since before Nixon, and they began to find their voice with Reagan. Values voters are but an aspect of the fracture. I am as concerned by those so alienated (about 35% of the voting public) by the system that they place themselves outside of it. It only takes a small, violent minority to stir up serious trouble. (Note the problems the Islamic world is having with modestly sized, but vigorously active persons.) Sam Adams' Sons of Liberty, and for that matter the leaders of the Revolution, were hardly a majority, but were energetic and willing to use violent means.

Why do you assume that "it can't happen here?"

DR
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And why would you assume that current gun ownership patters would matter in such a situation?

The idea that people need guns to fight off the government is the dumbest arguement I have heard for handgun and such issues. Look at Iraq, there is a real successful war with the government there and the prime weapons are suprisingly not handgund and small arms. They are bombs and RPG's.

Anyone who really believes in that as an arguement must believe that I should be able to have RPG's and claymore mines in my posession to defend myself from the government.
 
ponderingturtle said:
And why would you assume that current gun ownership patters would matter in such a situation?

The idea that people need guns to fight off the government is the dumbest arguement I have heard for handgun and such issues. Look at Iraq, there is a real successful war with the government there and the prime weapons are suprisingly not handgund and small arms. They are bombs and RPG's.

Anyone who really believes in that as an arguement must believe that I should be able to have RPG's and claymore mines in my posession to defend myself from the government.
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I think you mistake people fighting each other, civil strife, with people fighting the government. Your post doesn't fit what I am talking about. You seem to assume an insurrection "against the government." I am positing a different problem. At some point, you run out of national guard units and cops, some of whom have deserted or gone AWOL.

DR
 
ponderingturtle said:
Please show that this majority makes up more than 50% of the american populace.
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Please tell me why your pointless semantic distinction makes a bit of difference? Majorities aren't required for political action, energetic minorities are. The sheep then follow, get shorn, or slaughtered.

While you are at it, educate yourself on Nixon's context in framing that remark, oh deliberately obtuse one. You are old enough to do your own homework, get reading.

ETA: Here's an example of what I am talking about:

The Texas 2005 - Special, November (Constitutional Amendment election)
Registered Voters 12,577,545
Voting Age Population (VAP) 16,351,396
Percentage of VAP Registered 76.9
Turnout 2,260,695
Percent of Turnout to Registered Voters 17.97
Percent of Turnout to VAP 13.8

Texas found out what a minority felt about those 8 Amendments (including the much discussed "marriage is one and one woman" bit) but about 80% of those eligible, a silent majority, remained silent. What happens if and when they speak up, or act out?

DR
 
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hgc said:
I am wondering if one of the significant outcomes of the Foley fiasco is if religiously motivated (from the Christian "right" evangelical point of view) Republican voters will finally figure out that they've been played for fools by the Republican party.

The central theme of the Republican appeal to this block is homophobia. But the religious nutters have often been suspicious that their agenda is not priority one. Now that their eyes are being opened to the gay men in the Republican ranks, and the moves by the leadership to protect same, will they come to think that they've been used and abused?
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Yes, the House leadership clearly screwed up by not bashing the gay within their ranks as soon as they became aware of his existence.
 
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