Vladimir Putin, madman, genius, or both?

[The Atheist]

he seems pretty rational, pretty intelligent and pretty unsavory.....

Does the news out of Russia create waves in UK at all? Seems to hardly create a ripple in USA, yet here we get plenty of news. (mind you nothing ever happens here!)

 

[Ziggurat]

What makes you say that? The amount of money floating around in the wrong hands would suggest otherwise.

Like I said: the rotting carcass is going to give off a stink. But Russia is in the process of undergoing a slow collapse. Putin can do little to nothing to stop it, but he knows what the real problem (for Russia) is at least, and that's demographics. It's collapsing. Birth rates are FAR below replacement rates. Their population has already decreased, and it's going to decrease a lot more. There have been reports that the abortion rates are higher than the live birth rates. That is NOT the sign of a healthy society. With a shrinking population, how can they achieve anything other than shrinking influence? They cannot, and they will not. Demographics is destiny.

 

[The Atheist]

I'll take your word for that - I know lots of Russians are migrating, we get heaps coming over here to live.

 

[geni]

True enough. I get the sense the Russia is still trying to refind its feet. When she does, standby world.

DR

Not really. In the short term russia might be able to stablise as an oil and gas producer but I can't see russia being a player the size that it once was.

 

[geni]

No worries. China and NZ are best buddies - we are the country of "Three Firsts" with China - so all you'll need to do is be our friend and China will be yours!

Not so. In practice your geopolitical importance is sod all.

 

[geni]

Like I said: the rotting carcass is going to give off a stink. But Russia is in the process of undergoing a slow collapse. Putin can do little to nothing to stop it,

I don't know. He apears to be trying to put together some for of enconomy based on oil exports.

Demographics is destiny.

And nukes will buy you a place on the top table for a long time to come.

 

[Ziggurat]

I don't know. He apears to be trying to put together some for of enconomy based on oil exports.

How on earth will oil money stop a population implosion, it it's done nothing to slow it down so far? It won't.

And nukes will buy you a place on the top table for a long time to come.

Sure. Russia's decline is not going to be quick, that's true, but it's looking inevitable nonetheless.

 

[The Atheist]

Not so. In practice your geopolitical importance is sod all.

Bit like your sense of humour, I presume...

 

[peptoabysmal]

One of those areas where a real crystal-ball gazer would be helpful. Given that Putin has re-commenced spending on the Russian military and is trying very hard to get Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine re-assimilated into Russia, it'd be fascinating to think where Russia might be in ten years' time.

Think about a hypothetical scenario. USA's economy is not in good shape and Iraq is going to bleed it for several years yet, by the looks of the current situation, so where is the US going to be financially and militarily in ten years?

I just find it particularly interesting that very few people seem to notice or care that this is going on.

I've noticed, but couldn't get anyone interested. I think the cold war is alive and flourishing.

 

[PogoPedant]

Let's see.

Russia is a large nation with ample natural resources. The population is poor and unemployed, but many of them are proud of Russia's history, at least the part where Russia is the great and noble empire that most choose to remember. Moreover, Russia is currently a democracy, but the people see this as more of a transitional thing than a good system. (I wish I had references for that, but this is from interviews I've seen).

The People want a strong Russia. There's a strong and ruthless leader on the top. There are natural resources everywhere you look and enemies at just about every border.

Can anybody think of any parallells? Godwin, mayhaps?

I think Russia can become all kinds of bad news before it eventually collapses.

 

[The Atheist]

I've noticed, but couldn't get anyone interested. I think the cold war is alive and flourishing.

Yeah, well the number of posts tell the story of the interest level - not much. As was pointed out, if this was about Israel, Palestine or Iraq, it would be 29 pages, not 29 posts.

This Putin is a cunning b'stard, I feel, and he has an awful lot of firepower, including ICBMs. Also, he's ramped the spending on subs right up, which if you want strategic weapons, is quite smart.

Looks like it's you and me and not many others. It wouldn't surprise me if Western powers don't regret not being more interested in the future. Opinions like ziggurat's seem to be the rule rather than the exception and I see them as pretty naive when the coutry which is "collapsing" still holds the second-largest nuclear arsenal. Look at all the fuss about North Korea having one or two primitive nukes. Russia still has hundreds.

 

[geni]

How on earth will oil money stop a population implosion, it it's done nothing to slow it down so far? It won't.

It doesn't need to. You don't need a large population for an oil based economy.

 

[Ziggurat]

It doesn't need to. You don't need a large population for an oil based economy.

The economy isn't the problem. Security is.

 

[geni]

The economy isn't the problem. Security is.

Not really. The various surounding countries can be held of with nukes or bribed into towing the line. As for other threats there are only a few hundred thousand chechen left.

 

[Ziggurat]

Not really. The various surounding countries can be held of with nukes or bribed into towing the line.

And that's worked to stop Islamic radicals - when?

The security problem isn't state actors, it's non-state actors. Especially among immigrant populations. And believe me, with an imploding population, Russia is going to get immigrants. Where are they going to come from? Not Europe, that's for sure. They're going to come from the Stans.

 

[geni]

And that's worked to stop Islamic radicals - when?

Objectively Islamic radicals are not that big a problem. They so rarely kill more than a few hundred people.

No russia has enough conventional force on hand to keep the problem of islamic radicals down to a reasonable level.

The security problem isn't state actors, it's non-state actors. Especially among immigrant populations. And believe me, with an imploding population, Russia is going to get immigrants. Where are they going to come from? Not Europe, that's for sure. They're going to come from the Stans.

Not so far and in any case you are only going to get imigrants if you have jobs

 

[Ziggurat]

Objectively Islamic radicals are not that big a problem. They so rarely kill more than a few hundred people.

Uh... no, that's not true. They kill a LOT of people, on a fairly regular basis. It's just easy to ignore because most of the time, it's other muslims (or Africans) that they're killing, not westerners.

No russia has enough conventional force on hand to keep the problem of islamic radicals down to a reasonable level.

Troop numbers aren't enough when the radicals infiltrate your own population centers. Sure, they won't get conquered any time soon. But think: what's Russia going to look like in 50 years? The ethnic Russian population will have decreased significantly, and it will be older too. There will probably be lots of immigrants from the Stans, and they will be much younger and their numbers will be growing. If these guys get radicalized successfully, what exactly can the Russian military do about it?

Not so far and in any case you are only going to get imigrants if you have jobs

There will be jobs. Russia's oil wealth, along with an aging population which creates a heavier and heavier welfare burden on a shrinking workforce, will see to that.

 

[geni]

Troop numbers aren't enough when the radicals infiltrate your own population centers. Sure, they won't get conquered any time soon. But think: what's Russia going to look like in 50 years? The ethnic Russian population will have decreased significantly, and it will be older too. There will probably be lots of immigrants from the Stans, and they will be much younger and their numbers will be growing. If these guys get radicalized successfully, what exactly can the Russian military do about it?

Win. At least if they have someone like Putin in charge. It wouln't be pretty (see Grozny) but if you are prepared to accept civilian casulties the problem can be delt with with only limted diffifulty..

There will be jobs. Russia's oil wealth,

You can exploit that with a fairly small workforce.

along with an aging population which creates a heavier and heavier welfare burden on a shrinking workforce, will see to that.

Russia also has a falling life expectancy.

 

[Ziggurat]

You can exploit that with a fairly small workforce.

The oil itself, yes. The economy as a whole, no.

Russia also has a falling life expectancy.

I don't think that improves things for them, and because of the fantastically low birth rate, I don't think it stops the average age from drifting upwards either. Rather, I think it's a sign that, despite the oil wealth, they aren't doing very well even now.

 

[peptoabysmal]

Yeah, well the number of posts tell the story of the interest level - not much. As was pointed out, if this was about Israel, Palestine or Iraq, it would be 29 pages, not 29 posts.

This Putin is a cunning b'stard, I feel, and he has an awful lot of firepower, including ICBMs. Also, he's ramped the spending on subs right up, which if you want strategic weapons, is quite smart.

Looks like it's you and me and not many others. It wouldn't surprise me if Western powers don't regret not being more interested in the future. Opinions like ziggurat's seem to be the rule rather than the exception and I see them as pretty naive when the coutry which is "collapsing" still holds the second-largest nuclear arsenal. Look at all the fuss about North Korea having one or two primitive nukes. Russia still has hundreds.

Honestly, I think the US government is fully aware of the chess game they are playing, but hasn't been forthcoming with information because it would just be more bad press. "...not only has the Bush administration blah blah, but they have re-ignited the cold war blah blah blah..."

The second document (CMPC-2004-001117) is a typed account, signed by Deputy Foreign Minister Hammam Abdel Khaleq, that states that the Russian ambassador has told the Iraqis that the United States was planning to deploy its force into Iraq from Basra in the South and up the Euphrates, and would avoid entering major cities on the way to Baghdad, which is, in fact what happened. The documents also state "Americans are also planning on taking control of the oil fields in Kirkuk." The information was obtained by the Russians from "sources at U.S. Central Command in Doha, Qatar," according to the document.
Did Russian Ambassador Give Saddam the U.S. War Plan?

I want a good explanation for this, but it's like no one cares...