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Fun in the casino

Hawk one

Emperor of the Internet
Hawk one
Joined
Nov 10, 2004
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Right below The Hat.
OK, so this fellow's coming into the JREF chatroom, claiming he can distort the odds in a game of roulette by paranormal means, which should be enough to win the Million Dollar Challenge. I'm therefore giving a link to where he's posted this claim (with his knowledge and approval), and will let you forum fellows have a look.

Hey, we can't keep all the fun in the JREF chatroom to ourselves (only the sexy parts). :D

Anyway, the link:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/2c9e36034bc685f8
 
Hawk one said:
OK, so this fellow's coming into the JREF chatroom, claiming he can distort the odds in a game of roulette by paranormal means, which should be enough to win the Million Dollar Challenge. I'm therefore giving a link to where he's posted this claim (with his knowledge and approval), and will let you forum fellows have a look.

Hey, we can't keep all the fun in the JREF chatroom to ourselves (only the sexy parts). :D

Anyway, the link:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/2c9e36034bc685f8
Click to expand...

Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.
 
Yoink said:
Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.
Click to expand...

Re-read it - no joke, I was in the chatroom, too. The guy is claiming he can influence the odds through his girlfriend.
 
Actually, his follow up just shows an inability to calculate odds properly, with no mention of the "lucky" penny. What is he on about?
 
Yoink said:
Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.
Click to expand...

When he entered the room, the first thing he said was:

<ChallengeBoy> I have created a scientific theory that may pass the million dollar challenge!

And he said some other stuff, and gave that link, and I have tried to give the gist of what -he- claimed in there. He wasn't joking. Well, maybe he was just trolling, but that's another issue.
My personal opinion on this should be apparent in the second paragraph; the one that ends in a smiley.
 
But disregarding his particular "betting scheme" he's quite right to say that if someone keeps giving you free money you can "beat the casino" (not that the casino will much care). That is, if you just keep betting with free money and then keep a percentage of your winnings--how could you lose?

I don't see where the paranormal comes in.
 
Terry said:
His follow-up: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/f022ed0371b26b2f

I have asked why he doesn't register and post himself.
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I can't make any sense at all of what he's on about.

Is he saying that you bet one penny on black and two on red? That way, if black is the winner I get one penny and lose two. But the "one penny" was a freebie, so actually I broke even. So now I can start again from scratch. But if red wins, I lose one and win two, so now I have another "freebie" coin, and start again.

Is that it? Where's he getting his bizarre "odds" from, though?
 
That is exactly my method of gambling. I make sure I never bet my own money and I haven't lost anything yet.
 
Probably played too many old casino video games where they have the odds like that. I thought the same thing until I actually went to a real casino and saw the real payouts for such things.
 
Yoink said:
I can't make any sense at all of what he's on about.

Is he saying that you bet one penny on black and two on red? That way, if black is the winner I get one penny and lose two. But the "one penny" was a freebie, so actually I broke even. So now I can start again from scratch. But if red wins, I lose one and win two, so now I have another "freebie" coin, and start again.

Is that it? Where's he getting his bizarre "odds" from, though?
Click to expand...
I read it differently, but his wording is so vague it is hard to tell.

My take:

Start with two pennies. Bet 1 on black.

If I win, then I am 1 penny ahead.

If I lose, I place the other penny on black. I can either lose or win. If I win, then I I'm back at my starting point, and I can play to win.

So there are three scenerios here, 2 that win, and one that loses. Thus, my odds are 66%
----

Of course, that is a completely incorrect way of calculating the odds and counting scenerios.
 
Actually, his odds are correct. If you always stop when you are 1 penny up, and you start with 2 pennies, you have a 2/3 chance of winning that one penny. However, the other 1/3 of the time you lose 2 pennies, so there is no net win over mulitple trials.

Of course in a real casino the odds of winning on red or black are not actually 50%, there are 2 (not 1) green sectors (0 and 00) making the odds 18/38 to win a bet placed on red or black. This is how the casino makes money.

IXP
 
2/3 + 3/4 = 5/7. And that's 71.42857%
Click to expand...

That's some great math right there!

Actually, I think I'm missing something in his explanation - how does the 50/50 relate to the "7 ways I can win and 5 ways I can lose" and to the 2/3 + 3/4 = 5/7?
 
Well, he's utterly disappeared. Probably got a sniff of our troll repellent. :D
 
These cases make it hard to ell who they are kidding: Others or themselves.



Man, the board is quiet these days.
 
Oh I can do WAAAAY better than that. What I do is sit down at the nickel slots, and very slowly, play. By the time I've spent 10 dollars, I've drank 20 dollars worth of beer. And Mr. Randi says you can't get something for nothing? Bah! (:
 
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