Can Lieberman win in 08?

[BPSCG]

Assume Lieberman loses the primary - not at all an unlikely outcome.

Assume further that most of his senate support - Hillary, et. al. - immediately evaporates, on the grounds that they have to support the candidate selected in the Democratic primary. Again, not at all an unlikely outcome.

Assume Lieberman runs as an independent - not at all an unlikely outcome.

Assume further that with the aid of Connecticut Republican voters, he wins in November - not at all an unlikely outcome.

Assume the Republicans continue to control the Senate after the election - not at all an unlikely outcome.

As Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), who will he caucus with when the Senate reconvenes in January, after the Democratic voters of his state threw him overboard and his Democratic colleagues in the Senate simply stood by and watched as he tried not to drown? Will he pull a reverse Jim Jeffords (I-VT), who went from Republican to Independent but caucuses with the Dems?

 

[hgc]

...
As Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), who will he caucus with when the Senate reconvenes in January, after the Democratic voters of his state threw him overboard and his Democratic colleagues in the Senate simply stood by and watched as he tried not to drown? Will he pull a reverse Jim Jeffords (I-VT), who went from Republican to Independent but caucuses with the Dems?

He swears up and down he'll stay a Dem and caucus with the Dems. I don't trust him much, but I don't think he'd say it so emphatically and then not stick to it.

 

[headscratcher4]

Apart from the moderate part, how does the above description distinguish Lieberman from any other Democratic senator?

Charisma? Look who the Democrats have made their standard-bearers in the last two elections: Al ("I'm Not Made of Wood, Honest") Gore and John ("If I Shout in My Hectoring, Declamatory Voice a Little Louder, I'll Have Tubs of Charisma") Kerry.

Okay, they hit the jackpot with Clinton (even a blind pig sometimes finds the trough), but before that, they gave us Mike Dukakis and Walter Mondale.

That's why they didn't give Screamin' Howard Dean the nomination last time out. Too much personality.

I predict the Dems'll nominate Adlai Stevenson in '08. Yeah, he's been dead for forty years and when he was alive had all the charisma of a mushroom. Sounds like the perfect candidate.

It doesn't ... so which other Democrat senator are you backing for President? Save for his willingness to Kiss-up to Bush ... what about Lieberman inspires any thought that he could/should be president or run anything? I suspect save for his moderate tone...and his kissing up to Bush...any investigation of Leiberman's record will reveal that he votes and supports most Democratic initatives most of the time...given what I know of your views especially on democrats, how could you want him to be president? Is it just the war...is it going so well that anyone who supported the war is Ok?

 

[hgc]

Emphasis mine. So you mean your joke was a large exaggeration?

That was no small diction error. My joke was hardly and exaggeration.

 

[BPSCG]

It doesn't ... so which other Democrat senator are you backing for President?

Ted Kennedy. He's one vast, oozing, pustule of personality.

 

[Rob Lister]

As Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), who will he caucus with when the Senate reconvenes in January, after the Democratic voters of his state threw him overboard and his Democratic colleagues in the Senate simply stood by and watched as he tried not to drown? Will he pull a reverse Jim Jeffords (I-VT), who went from Republican to Independent but caucuses with the Dems?

He will continue to caucus with the dems as it regards non-war issues...it is politically necessary; his play in the '08 ticket depends on it.

This is a major, major concern for the Dems...that's why they want him out now rather than later (my opinion). If he does not get the Dem nod for '08, he will run as a Ind and split both tickets. The biggest split will of course be the Dems. If I can figure out the game, I know he and they have too. They will have to find a way to either destroy him (as they are currently trying to do) or accept him back in the fold as if disagreements never happened.

He holds all the cards right now. They can not risk letting him run as an Ind in '08. He wouldn't win but he'd [all but] ensure a Rep win. Right now it's all 'fun and games' but when the big game starts the Dems know that it his ball.

This is politics at it's most interestingest! It just requires a nutural mindset to see it.

 

[BPSCG]

He will continue to caucus with the dems as it regards non-war issues...it is politically necessary; his play in the '08 ticket depends on it.

I don't realistically see him as a viable Democratic candidate in '08. He couldn't get the nomination in '04, when the field was wide open (i.e., no natural successor to the outgoing Democratic president); his numbers in the primaries were always in the Al Sharpton/Dennis Kucinich range. Why should he think he would do so much better in '08?

This is a major, major concern for the Dems...that's why they want him out now rather than later (my opinion). If he does not get the Dem nod for '08, he will run as a Ind and split both tickets.

Why would he do that?

I remember someone commented recently, "P!ss off both parties: Vote the McCain/Lieberman ticket in '08."

If Lieberman loses today and wins in November, the prospect of a McCain/Lieberman ticket in '08 suddenly becomes much more plausible, going from a 0.0001% chance all the way up to a 1.0% chance.

 

[Random]

I don’t think that Lieberman has a chance in an independent Senatorial run. Lieberman’s only real value to the Republican party is the fact that he’s got a “D” after his name. He keeps trying to reach across the aisle and provide the political cover of “bipartisanship” to the GOP in a misguided effort to be the great compromiser in an era of deliberately staged partisanship. Make the letter after his name an “I” and the GOP would drop their support of him in a heartbeat. After that, I think the GOP would try to get their Republican guy across the finish line in a three-way Connecticut Senate race.

 

[marksman]

The GOP candidate in Connecticut is a non-issue. If Lieberman were to lose the primary and choose not to run in the general election, Lister would easily beat the GOP candidate. If Lieberman runs, their best bet would be to run a negative campaign against Lister, and ignore Lieberman, allowing him to take the high moral ground by running an upbeat and non-negative campaign.

Lieberman is the GOP's best possible result in CT because a GOP Senator is not realistically possible.

 

[BPSCG]

If Lieberman were to lose the primary and choose not to run in the general election, Lister would easily beat the GOP candidate. If Lieberman runs, their best bet would be to run a negative campaign against Lister,

You getting all this, Rob?

Anyone think Lamont could win?

 

[marksman]

Oh crud. Lamont Lister is a fighter. I always get those names messed up!!!

Man, that is embarrassing. (Although it might explain the election of Jesse Ventura...)

 

[Rob Lister]

Damn, and I was just about to throw my hat in the ring.

 

[marksman]

Sadly, unless your first name is Lamont, I'd probably end up voting for the wrong guy.

 

[Lurker]

Lurker, polling data very strongly suggests that the Rep can't win, regardless. A dem is going to win...period. Splitting the Dem ticket in this case is not an issue because either lieberman or the Dem wins.

Hasn't Liberman threatened to run as an independent? That would have the Dem running, Lieberman runnign and the Republican running. Does the poll account for this possibility?

 

[SezMe]

One possible scenario is that Liberman loses the primary today and the Dem establishment leans hard on him to pull out. Liberman himself is so bitter about being turned on by the Dems that he wants to part of the electoral process again.

Then, as the Bush administration nears its end and jumping ship becomes a Republican pastime, Lieberman takes, say, the Secretary of Defense hoping to hold that position no matter which party wins in '08.

There, that opinion and a couple of bucks and off to Starbucks you go.

 

[FreeChile]

You getting all this, Rob?

Anyone think Lamont could win?

What has this guy Lamont actually done is the basic question? Is he someone from another planet like Ross Pero?

 

[marksman]

Hasn't Liberman threatened to run as an independent? That would have the Dem running, Lieberman runnign and the Republican running. Does the poll account for this possibility?

I believe they do

 

[Darth Rotor]

Ya know, ALL, I was kinda hoping to keep this thread focused on Lieberman and his potential for the 08 election. While the 06 election plays an important role in that debate, the [continuing ad nasum] debate about 'bush lied!'/'did not!' is a bit too tangental, dontchathink?

Stay focused gang. Let's see if we can put our left, right and middle brains together and near perfectly predict his/their strategy for both elections.

Lieberman in 08 as pres is a non starter.

No charisma.

DR

 

[SezMe]

What has this guy Lamont actually done is the basic question? Is he someone from another planet like Ross Pero?

When Shrub became President, he had more DUIs than the number of times he had been to a foreign country. What, exactly, had Bush done other than execute more prisoners than any governor in the nation's history?

ETA: Oh, and he had more admonishments from the SEC for insider trading than trips outside the country. He had also taken one company into bankruptcy.

Nice resume.

 

[hgc]

Hasn't Liberman threatened to run as an independent? That would have the Dem running, Lieberman runnign and the Republican running. Does the poll account for this possibility?

This has been polled. One recent polls showed Lieberman and Lamont tied at 40. I don't know how much of the other 20 went to the guy who counts cards AND loses money at the casino.