North Korea to Launch ICBM

I'm sure the ABM demonstration would be a good deterrent to NK. Just have the US generals ring up the NK generals and ask them exactly what time the missile will be launced, and which direction it will be heading. There will then be a chance it might hit the target.
 
All this chat about "the BEST defence" would be to "shoot the sucker down", where's our ABM, etc. What rubbish! The best defence is to not have it launch at all. Surely there are much easier ways of arranging that, than trying to pinpoint laser-blast, or rocket down an already supersonic NK ICBM headed your way. Geez! Just destroy the one remaining NK box of matches they have desgnated to light the fuse with!
 
BPSCG said:
Wait a minute, I thought you said it couldn't work, or at least that it was about as likely to work as monkeys flying out of your butt. And that any second-year physics student knows that. We can assume, can't we, that the NK's are at least as knowledgeable as your hypothetical second-year physics students?
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That's probably a reasonable assumption, but there is at least one group of people who might be considered relevant in this respect who are not, in general, as knowledgeable as second year physics students.

BPSCG said:
So the worst that would happen would be that we'd be confirming what is already widely known.
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And if you were Bush you'd just be dying to demonstrate that your prestige project was a waste of time and money. After all no politician would hesitate to admit that his previous policies were a failure and revise them if that's what's best for the country. No matter the political cost. In fact they particular like to demonstrate their failures in the most public way possible, and what more public way could they demonstrate that the ABM system doesn't work, than failing to shot down a NK missile.

BPSCG said:
And the best would be that nasty people would say, "Yikes, we were wrong; ABM defense is feasible, and the U.S. is the only country that's got it. Let's target somebody else!"
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Yes, at best.
 
For the USA-centric: I believe the maximum range of the NK missile is supposed to be the western Aleutian Islands in Alaska. Worst case scenario, Kim hits a noble caribou in the butt. I'd be much more worried if I were Japan or SK.

About a missle defense system: I once heard that a system is basically useless because it can be countered cheaply by sending up decoy missles along with live warheads. I don't know the reality of that claim.
 
KingMerv00 said:
About a missle defense system: I once heard that a system is basically useless because it can be countered cheaply by sending up decoy missles along with live warheads. I don't know the reality of that claim.
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That's an often-published statement in various official government reports. The decoy missiles are less effective during the boost phase (so again, if we could somehow get access to NK airspace during the test, we would be more likely to handle the dummy missile problem), but by the time the missiles are "on final approach," so to speak, dummy missiles are an all but unsoluble problem.
 
Jocko said:
That's a sign of intelligence and sanity? How much of either does it take to point a gun or pull a trigger?
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You have to kill the right people at least some of the time. You have control the plotting amoung your subordinates. You have to able to do the accounts to the degree required to pay your henchmen.


In the case of those didn't inhert thier power you have to have the skill to get thier in the first place.
 
KingMerv00 said:
For the USA-centric: I believe the maximum range of the NK missile is supposed to be the western Aleutian Islands in Alaska. Worst case scenario, Kim hits a noble caribou in the butt. I'd be much more worried if I were Japan or SK.

About a missle defense system: I once heard that a system is basically useless because it can be countered cheaply by sending up decoy missles along with live warheads. I don't know the reality of that claim.
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I wouldn't be too sure about the Continental United States being out of range. They have had the capacity to target the Alaska, Hawaii, and possibly the extreme US Western Coast(with a smaller warhead) since 1998. A modified version of their Taepo-Dong 2, with an extra stage would bring all of the US in their range. North Korea has reportedly already produced that, but it is as yet untested. I'm sure that NK has been working very hard at producing a weapon that can target the US. With the US distracted in Iraq, they have had a few years without attracting too much attention. We must also remember that China backs North Korea and will probably continue to do so regardless of how much the US yells and screams for international action against NK.
 
geni said:
You have to kill the right people at least some of the time. You have control the plotting amoung your subordinates. You have to able to do the accounts to the degree required to pay your henchmen.
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Please, I do that every day and I'm no genius, nor am I particularly sane. Ask around, you'll see.


In the case of those didn't inhert thier power you have to have the skill to get thier in the first place.
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Well, Kim was born under a rainbow crapped by a unicorn, remember. Or something like that.
 
Cleon said:
Theoretically, sure, an ABM system can work.

Theoretically, I could date Jessica Alba. However, realistically, given the vast difference in attractiveness levels ("hottie" versus "overweight, balding nerd"), social status ("more money than god" versus "reasonably middle class"), etc., my chances with Ms. Alba are slim-to-none.

Similarly, realistically, an accurate, functional ABM system simply is not going to happen any time soon. The difference is that the government has thrown billions of dollars at the idea, not to mention 20+ years of research both public and private, and they still haven't been able to get it to work.

Yet still, ABM backers keep trying to get more funding and to promote the idea. Even I finally gave up on Jessica after the third restraining order; at a certain point, you either accept the fact that it isn't going to happen, or you wind up needing psychiatric help.
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Great analogy ...

Charlie (3rd restraining order, hee hee) Monoxide
 
Jocko said:
At the rate they're going, they'll be back to sticks before you know it.
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I'm just a touch concerned that before they get to that point, they'll use some of those guns and missiles :(.
 
geni said:
Originally Posted by Huntster :
So, people like Kim, Saddam, Fidel, etc. can be considered prudent, responsible, and sensible?
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Mostly Kim isn't as smart as the other two who came to power through their own actions. In the case of Kim I suspect there are some smart people around him who keep things going.
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Kim is the perfect example to use to illustrate why taking Saddam out was a wise thing to do.

Imagine Uday leading Iraq...........
 
It will be interesting to see what Japan's long term reaction to a nuclear armed North Korea will be. Japan is the third biggest producer of refined reactor grade plutonium in the world. Their refining capability is variable, and can be made to produce weapons grade plutonium. They always keep a stockpile of 16.2 tons of refined plutonium at hand and export what they don't need. 16 tons of plutonium is enough material for about 2000 warheads. They also have the rocketry technology and experience to deliver nuclear weapons.

Japan has chosen to remain nuclear weapons free because of political reasons, but if it decided to join the nuclear club, it could do so in a very serious way. Even China would be quickly surpassed in numbers of warheads, as their production/refining capacity is much lower than Japan's.
 
Dcdrac said:
Japan has a nuclear reactor or two
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It has 53 reactors and actually makes reactors for other countries. Some of their reactors are considered to be at the very highest levels of current technology. They also are currently developing new technologies for future nuclear reactors.
 
Trantor said:
I'm sure that NK has been working very hard at producing a weapon that can target the US. With the US distracted in Iraq, they have had a few years without attracting too much attention.
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Unless you're claiming that we'd have to put a few hundred thousand troops in N. Korea to "pay much attention" this doesn't make any sense.
 
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