North Korea to Launch ICBM

So, depending on what system we deploy, it is possible that deniability is an option?

Possible, but unlikely. For example, if we have a conventional (i.e. not bomb-pumped) X-ray laser, tightly focused enough and fired from a ground-based platform, then if we miss, we'd basically just be firing a huge burst of X-rays into space. The atmospheric results would likely be anomolous (that kind of ionization doesn't just happen for the hell of it), and the timing would be suspicious, but although a lot of people would guess that we had tried and failed to knock the missile down with an X-ray laser, no one would really have proof.

The problem, of course, is that for military purposes, suspicion is almost as good as proof. In particular, the kind of facilities (particular power generation) necessary to fire one of these devices more or less requires a dedicated, land-based facility (probably based in a friendly country like Japan, due to the need for access to the boost phase.) You could never fit such a beast onto a sub or an aircraft. Once the NKs know that the US has deployed such lasers, they're an obvious espionage or sabotage target -- again, we've basically blown our cover.

A more conventional system, such as the Patriot, will rely on kinetic-kill missiles. These can be deployed by mobile units, but are very easy to track on radar, and the kinetic-kill (or, more likely,
the kinetic failure-to-kiill) will be obvious to any observers.
 
....Either people start behaving rationally and reasonably towards one another, or we'll all die.

Do you have some secret method of avoiding death?

Rational behavior and reason aren't the answer. I've known some very rational and reasonable people who have died.
 
Well, what's the chance that NK will fire its first missile hot?
 
Well, what's the chance that NK will fire its first missile hot?

Considering how stupid Kim is, it's an even bet.

Now, who might that target be? Los Angeles, Honolulu, Tokyo, or Anchorage?

I'll speculate that if he does, it would be their last missile launch.
 
Considering how stupid Kim is, it's an even bet.

Now, who might that target be? Los Angeles, Honolulu, Tokyo, or Anchorage?

I'll speculate that if he does, it would be their last missile launch.

Well, stupid, insane and powerful is a really bad combination.

You left out Seattle, Portland, and other obvious sites I won't mention.

But if it was his last launch, well, his country is starving, he is broke, nobody but some third-world religious nutcases will deal with him...
 
Originally Posted by Huntster :
Considering how stupid Kim is, it's an even bet.

Now, who might that target be? Los Angeles, Honolulu, Tokyo, or Anchorage?

I'll speculate that if he does, it would be their last missile launch.

Well, stupid, insane and powerful is a really bad combination....

Yup.

Looks like this bud needed nipping before it got the nukes and ICBM capabilities, huh?

....But if it was his last launch, well, his country is starving, he is broke, nobody but some third-world religious nutcases will deal with him...

So, stupid, insane, powerful, and desperate really add up to possible trouble, don't they?

Think he'd like to sing a few bars of Lennon's "Give Peace a Chance" with us?
 
Maybe it will blow up shortly after launch, and we can claim credit. ;)



But it would be funny if after the launch we fired a ICBM that had no warhead, but would stick on the roof of Kim's palace like a giant lawn dart. :p
 
But it would be funny if after the launch we fired a ICBM that had no warhead, but would stick on the roof of Kim's palace like a giant lawn dart. :p

The destruction of Seoul would probably reduce the humor.
 
Originally Posted by Huntster :
Evidence, please?
Their ability to stay in power.

Stupid:

Main Entry: stupid
Part of Speech: adjective
Definition: irresponsible
Synonyms: brainless, dazed, deficient, dense, dim, dodo, doltish, dopy, dotterel, dull, dumb, dummy*, foolish, futile, gullible, half-baked*, half-witted*, idiotic, ill-advised, imbecilic, inane, indiscreet, insensate, irrelevant, irresponsible, laughable, loser*, ludicrous, meaningless, mindless, moronic, naive, nonsensical, obtuse, pointless, puerile, rash, senseless, short-sighted, simple, simple-minded, slow, sluggish, stolid, stupefied, thick, thickheaded, trivial, unintelligent, unthinking, witless
Antonyms: prudent, responsible, sensible


So, people like Kim, Saddam, Fidel, etc. can be considered prudent, responsible, and sensible?
 
So, people like Kim, Saddam, Fidel, etc. can be considered prudent, responsible, and sensible?

Mostly Kim isn't as smart as the other two who came to power through their own actions. In the case of Kim I suspect there are some smart people around him who keep things going.
 
They will continue to get a free pass. We are tied up dealing with the real WMD threat in Iraq.
 
China and SK would probably object ot being hit by large amounts of fallout.

I would also object. I hate wearing NBC gear as it is. Plus I just bought a new computer and they probably wouldn't let me take it back to the states from a contaminated area. I'd like to play with it a little before it gets irradiated.

In any event, this is just typical North Korea crap. I wouldn't get too spun up about it.
 
As much as I'd like to see it done, I'm pretty sure that shooting it down would be construed as in open act of war.

Didn't a NK missle test a few years ago have a flight path directly over Japan? IIRC, they weren't too thrilled about that.
 

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