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Lotto Probability

skeptigirl said:
Like I said, I guess you guys aren't prone to contemplating the Universe and making millions winning the lotto at 3 am.
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What else is there to do at 3am?

Haven't you ever taken a math or probability problem and played around with it, looking at it from different angles? All I did was calculate each of the 6 choices one at a time instead of calculating the odds of the next number coming up. You can take lists of winning numbers. Put them in columns so each row has 6 cells. Graph out all the numbers for column one, column two, etc. It has very interesting results.
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I have done this. Only I had charts where the numbers were in the order they were drawn, so the interesting result was that each number came up pretty much exactly as ofte nin every spot as you'd expect it.

While the lowest number that can be in column 6 is 6, results in that column are much more likely to be >20. And in the first column results are much more likely to be <20.
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Yes, now, very slowly it is beginning to make sense ...

I know it is an illusion. I've said that 3 times now. So I don't understand why all the claims are being made here of how stupid the idea is. It's as if you all think I'm saying it affects the real probability of the numbers. I'm only showing you a particular phenomenon that turns up when you look at how often numbers are in each position, rather than how often any single number comes up.
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I did not intend to suggest that you were stupid, or that you might have missed that you were talking about a stupid idea. I just didn't think it was very likely that people would look at it like you suggested they might - and I still don't think they would. Call me naive ...

If you just look at how many times each number has been chosen, you can see right away that the method of looking at the columns is flawed. But think how it looks at 3 am. It looks like you should space your choices out and avoid numbers <6 and >44.
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Yes, maybe ...

I'm sorry I brought it up.
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There certainly is no need for you to apologize.

Rasmus.
 
macgyver said:
Pick numbers? Why not just play 1,2,3,4,5,6 every time. It's bound to win eventually.
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Well, there are good reasons to pick numbers that only a few other people are playing; preferably numbers that nobody else is playing. (mind you, this is making a few assumptions. If one day the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 do come up, you'd still wish you had played those...)

And of course the problem with picking the same numbers every time means you can never stop playing.

http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2006/06/best_gift_ever.html

I do something similar: I ask people for the lottery numbers, and then I go and play the numbers they told me. That way, they will be the ones kicking themselves for the rest of their lives if I win. I am mean that way ....

Rasmus.
 
macgyver said:
Pick numbers? Why not just play 1,2,3,4,5,6 every time. It's bound to win eventually.
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That's true. If you just play the same numbers once a week for about 250,000 years then you're almost guaranteed to win.
 
skeptigirl said:
Like I said, I guess you guys aren't prone to contemplating the Universe and making millions winning the lotto at 3 am. Haven't you ever taken a math or probability problem and played around with it, looking at it from different angles? All I did was calculate each of the 6 choices one at a time instead of calculating the odds of the next number coming up. You can take lists of winning numbers. Put them in columns so each row has 6 cells. Graph out all the numbers for column one, column two, etc. It has very interesting results. While the lowest number that can be in column 6 is 6, results in that column are much more likely to be >20. And in the first column results are much more likely to be <20.
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http://mathworld.wolfram.com/OrderStatistic.html
 
Bob Klase said:
That's true. If you just play the same numbers once a week for about 250,000 years then you're almost guaranteed to win.
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Well, sure...but you could leave those numbers to your grandkids...and then their grandkids....essentially guaranteeing a winner in your bloodline...

Unless the sun explodes...that would suck...
 
I always wondered what would a lottery do if the following ever happened ... now this is very unlikely, but imagine ...

A person wins the lottery -- then does so again the next week -- and then the next -- and so on. How long do you think this would go on before someone of authority put a stop to it? Would people give up on the lottery sensing it was rigged and never play again?
 
Rasmus said:
I do something similar: I ask people for the lottery numbers, and then I go and play the numbers they told me. That way, they will be the ones kicking themselves for the rest of their lives if I win. I am mean that way ....
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A girlfriend of mine borrowed $10 and later told me it was for the office lottery pool. I told her to give me the $10 back. She said, "Okay, but if I win, you don't get any". I said, "Deal."

She didn't win.
 
Just thinking said:
I always wondered what would a lottery do if the following ever happened ... now this is very unlikely, but imagine ...

A person wins the lottery -- then does so again the next week -- and then the next -- and so on. How long do you think this would go on before someone of authority put a stop to it? Would people give up on the lottery sensing it was rigged and never play again?
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If you ran the Lotto, suspect you wouldn't have any problem getting an insurance policy to protect you from this....

The insurance providers enjoy a "sure thing"...
 
skeptigirl said:
Like I said, I guess you guys aren't prone to contemplating the Universe and making millions winning the lotto at 3 am. Haven't you ever taken a math or probability problem and played around with it, looking at it from different angles? All I did was calculate each of the 6 choices one at a time instead of calculating the odds of the next number coming up. You can take lists of winning numbers. Put them in columns so each row has 6 cells. Graph out all the numbers for column one, column two, etc. It has very interesting results. While the lowest number that can be in column 6 is 6, results in that column are much more likely to be >20. And in the first column results are much more likely to be <20.

I know it is an illusion. I've said that 3 times now. So I don't understand why all the claims are being made here of how stupid the idea is. It's as if you all think I'm saying it affects the real probability of the numbers. I'm only showing you a particular phenomenon that turns up when you look at how often numbers are in each position, rather than how often any single number comes up.

If you just look at how many times each number has been chosen, you can see right away that the method of looking at the columns is flawed. But think how it looks at 3 am. It looks like you should space your choices out and avoid numbers <6 and >44.

I'm sorry I brought it up.
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I caught your point on the first pass.
You were demonstrating a trap that many would fall for if they didn't pay attention.

I would never suspect you to fall for it.

Cheers,
Dave
 
Bob Klase said:
That's true. If you just play the same numbers once a week for about 250,000 years then you're almost guaranteed to win.
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OK, let's look at this probability problem here and see how it pans out. You guys picked on me, now let me point out this fallacy as well.

Each time the numbers are drawn, each number theoretically has the same chance of being drawn.

So are the chances really greater of your numbers coming up if you play the same ones every time?

Or are the odds the same as any other numbers being drawn that day?

This is another one of those 3 am thought problems. This one can keep you awake for days. ;)
 
skeptigirl said:
OK, let's look at this probability problem here and see how it pans out. You guys picked on me, now let me point out this fallacy as well.

Each time the numbers are drawn, each number theoretically has the same chance of being drawn.

So are the chances really greater of your numbers coming up if you play the same ones every time?

Or are the odds the same as any other numbers being drawn that day?

This is another one of those 3 am thought problems. This one can keep you awake for days. ;)
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You are correct. It doesn't matter whether you play the same numbers or different numbers every time.

The other thing it misses is that, yes, you will most likely win after 250,000 years (assuming one game a week), but you will also be several million dollars behind when you do.
 
tsg said:
You are correct. It doesn't matter whether you play the same numbers or different numbers every time.
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Absolutely. It's the psychological appeal plus superstition that makes this counter-intuitive though. Try getting someone who's played the same numbers for years to change them even just once...
 
tkingdoll said:
Absolutely. It's the psychological appeal plus superstition that makes this counter-intuitive though. Try getting someone who's played the same numbers for years to change them even just once...
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And the fear that this is the time they'll hit. Because probability has a mean streak and a sense of irony. And it happened in that movie with that guy.
 
tkingdoll said:
Absolutely. It's the psychological appeal plus superstition that makes this counter-intuitive though. Try getting someone who's played the same numbers for years to change them even just once...
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I wouldn't change my numbers, either. Not because of the maths, but because if it was that day that my regular numbers would be drawn, I'd be kicking myself for the rest of all eternity. And since that wouldn't be any fun at all ...
 
Rasmus said:
I wouldn't change my numbers, either. Not because of the maths, but because if it was that day that my regular numbers would be drawn, I'd be kicking myself for the rest of all eternity. And since that wouldn't be any fun at all ...
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Exactly. Superstition. You don't do something because you fear something bad will happen.
 
macgyver said:
If you ran the Lotto, suspect you wouldn't have any problem getting an insurance policy to protect you from this....

The insurance providers enjoy a "sure thing"...
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For most lotteries, the prizes paid out are only a portion of sales taken in, so the company would ALWAYS have enough cash on hand to cover large wins.

However, yeah, after the same person won more than once or twice, someone would be getting VERY suspicious!

It has happened in the past that people have won more than one large lottery win, but they're usually years apart, and on different games.

Personally...I think it's unfair to keep playing after you've finally won! Give someone else a chance!


Even though I KNOW the odds are 1 in 13.9 million*, I still play almost every draw. I picked one set of numbers over 20 years ago, and I've been playing them every since. Yup, I think I'd be upset for months if that was the one time I didn't play, and my numbers finally came up. :(


Last point - people like to play "patterns". Even though they may THINK they're choosing at random, there's usually some sort of bias. Even if it's spacing the numbers out so they're evenly chosen! I guess if you're going to play, probably best to stick to Quick Picks!

ETA: * refers to standard 6/49 game
 
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