Fuel Prices...

[Nyarlathotep]

SO! we also export oil too. Im not saying oil should be free in the US. But I was enjoyong haveing a fairly stable cost. I WANT THAT BACK! Is the US even using more oil than we have inthe past???

And I want a motorcycle. Neither of us is getting what we want.

 

[Mark]

Okay, it appears Mark has decided to bail on this thread; he's given up not answering my questions in this thread in favor of not answering Manny's in a thread of his own.

Beeps, Beeps. I told you on that other thread that I had to go to work (I got back 5 minutes ago). I keep answering questions and you keep saying I didn't because you don't like the answers.

Is lying pathological with you? Or do I just bring out your worst?

 

[BPSCG]

Beeps, Beeps. I told you on that other thread that I had to go to work (I got back 5 minutes ago). I keep answering questions and you keep saying I didn't because you don't like the answers.

Well, there's a difference between saying you keep answering questions and actually answering them.

You claim some unspecified "destruction" will occur if we drill the ANWR. The post you just responded to showed that the area of "destruction," even if it were total (say we paved over the whole thing with concrete three feet thick), would in fact be a miniscule portion, leaving the vast majority of the ANWR in its "pristine" state.

I also showed in another post that wildlife that is able to survive some of the harshest climates on earth somehow manage to survive oil drilling just fine; in fact, they appear to thrive.

So, let's assume I was reading too hastily and glossed over your answer, and that you did indeed answer my query about the extent of the "destruction" drilling in the ANWR would cause. Please provide a link to that response, so I may read it and digest it.

 

[Rob Lister]

Please provide a link to that response, so I may read it and digest it.

I too would like to learn from the sage Mark.

 

[Tricky]

It is currently possible to crack hydrogen from bio-fuels, most notably bio-diesel. Small-scale recombiners are already on the market. Unfortunately, i'm not familar with the actual energy ecomony involved; so I can't say whether it's a net-gain or net-loss tech.

All I can say is that my company (an international major) is investing in it. When they showed us the PR slides on it, I asked just that question, and the speaker said he was pretty sure it was a net-gain, but he hadn't personally done the numbers. And while it is true that we are in the business to make money, it is also true that good PR can make money if we can convince the public we are forward-looking. And really, I think we are. Even if it turns out to be a bust, it must be investigated, even if it proves marginal or non-commercial.

Aside from the energy economy issue, I don't think hydrogen is a viable long-term solution simply because of the logistics issues. Unless there is a significant improvement in the storage and transfer technology; it's never going to be anything more than a niche product And that's not including the extensive re-tooling and replacement required. However, I do know that it's adding an extra step in the utilization process, with the energy losses that that entails; and thus reducing overall efficiency.

I mostly agree, although the transfer technology shouldn't be so difficult. It's a gas, so it can go in pipes like natural gas does now. Maybe they can even use the same pipes. (Just a wild thought, not based on any research.) But it is a problem because of the very low BTU content, on the other hand, it is much safer than natural gas for the very same reason.

TDP and bio-fuels, combined with nuclear, are a far more viable option, at least in the near term, for electricity generation and vehicle fuel; and bio-fuels require little to no re-tooling or replacement, so no major infrastructure changes are needed.

Perhaps. But if that is the case, you would think energy companies would be smothering them with cash, and I don't see that. Of course, nobody wants to touch nuclear because of bad PR.

Hydrogen's only advantage over bio-fuels is pollution; and looking at cradle-to-grave production and utilization even that's a very minor advantage. Although hydrogen itself is non-polluting, refining it creates pollution regardless of the process used; and bio-fuels created very little pollution in themselves. Certainly nowhere near the level created by fossil fuels.

The problem I see with bio-fuels is the availability of raw materials to extract it. Though it might seem we have mountains of garbage to use, most of it is not suitable for bio fuels. Still, I think cooking oil recycling plants should be on every corner. They could hook up a direct collection line to Taco Bell.

But as I say, if we could find a way of producing hydrogen without inputting more energy than it yields, it does have transportation and safety advantages. But one problem with hydrogen is that is is the smallest of all molecules. It is hard as hell to engineer high-pressure containment vessels and lines that don't leak like sieves.

I don't think there is any one magic bullet that is going to solve energy needs once fossil fuels are no longer viable. A truly long-term solution is going to require a combination of options which will vary by region. I think we're going to see a good deal more localization and "in house" production of fuels and power.

I am in total agreement.

 

[Jimbo07]

But as I say, if we could find a way of producing hydrogen without inputting more energy than it yields, it does have transportation and safety advantages.

I think somebody mentioned (some time ago) something about the usability of fuels. Compressed H2 is most likely energy inefficient. Even if we couldn't "find a way of producing" certain fuels "without inputting more energy than it yields" we might be turning lots of hard-to-use energy into a small amount of convenient energy. In the future, that may be a plus.

I am in total agreement.

Regarding no magic bullet? I'm also in total agreement...

 

[The_Serpent]

Grid free!

This has been a very interesting thread for me. Especially with Tricky's comments. Much of his information I have also been slowly Prying from my Father who is a manager for a company that makes large Turbines for the oil industry. I would be interested what you think about the 'peak oil' by word I have been hearing bandied about lately: i.e. have we reached it? if not when? What truly interests me though, is how little discussion there is of Solar and wind power. These are not trivial technologies IMO.

I personally recently priced a solar system for the home I am building here in Pennsylvania. To purchase and install a system that will slightly exceed my current yearly electrical power needs in the home I am renting now is around 20-25K US dollars depending on exactly what I have and who I have do it. My current rental home has Electric heat and all electric appliances and my electric bill averaged over the whole yearly cycle is approxmiately 200 US dollars per month. A loan for 25K would have me paying 250-300 per month for 5 years, which is slightly higher than my current electric bill BUT after those 5 years.. my energy is free!!

Add to this the fact that my appliances are 10yr old energy hungry appliances and newer models have dramatically increased in efficiency and you start to understand why I am starting to feel this is the only way for me to go. I wish it were more common: given economies of scale for larger size solar cells and batteries and we could have some seriously cheap energy independence.

Now if only I could buy a relatively good sized (civic/cavalier) commuter electric car with at least a 40 mile range and I could be living entirely free except for parts, which thankfully there are fewer parts to break down in such a vehicle. I have been considering doing my own lead acid electric conversion of a used car recently, again if only the larger li-ion batts were a bit cheaper.

 

[Rob Lister]

This has been a very interesting thread for me. Especially with Tricky's comments. Much of his information I have also been slowly Prying from my Father who is a manager for a company that makes large Turbines for the oil industry. I would be interested what you think about the 'peak oil' by word I have been hearing bandied about lately: i.e. have we reached it? if not when? What truly interests me though, is how little discussion there is of Solar and wind power. These are not trivial technologies IMO.

I personally recently priced a solar system for the home I am building here in Pennsylvania. To purchase and install a system that will slightly exceed my current yearly electrical power needs in the home I am renting now is around 20-25K US dollars depending on exactly what I have and who I have do it. My current rental home has Electric heat and all electric appliances and my electric bill averaged over the whole yearly cycle is approxmiately 200 US dollars per month. A loan for 25K would have me paying 250-300 per month for 5 years, which is slightly higher than my current electric bill BUT after those 5 years.. my energy is free!!

Add to this the fact that my appliances are 10yr old energy hungry appliances and newer models have dramatically increased in efficiency and you start to understand why I am starting to feel this is the only way for me to go. I wish it were more common: given economies of scale for larger size solar cells and batteries and we could have some seriously cheap energy independence.

Now if only I could buy a relatively good sized (civic/cavalier) commuter electric car with at least a 40 mile range and I could be living entirely free except for parts, which thankfully there are fewer parts to break down in such a vehicle. I have been considering doing my own lead acid electric conversion of a used car recently, again if only the larger li-ion batts were a bit cheaper.

I'm very skeptical of your claim. I think you may have miscalculated either the cost or the energy output of the solar panels.

 

[The_Serpent]

Of course

I'm very skeptical of your claim. I think you may have miscalculated either the cost or the energy output of the solar panels.

Feel free to be skeptical of my 'claim', sheesh you'd think I just said I was going to power my home from goddam ectoplasm. Go look up prices for yourself then, I'm not about to do it for you, especially after you imply I don't know how to do math. GE makes them, as well as BP solar and quite a few others now. Output is not steady and varies a lot dependant on time of year and sun exposure, etc.. but that's why it's good to have an on-grid system that draws power when you need it and pumps power back to the utility when you don't.

ETA: Does it annoy anyone else when someone quotes an entire post to insert a one sentence response at the end?

 

[WildCat]

A loan for 25K would have me paying 250-300 per month for 5 years, which is slightly higher than my current electric bill BUT after those 5 years.. my energy is free!!

Depends on the life expectancy of the solar panels, and whether or not they get less efficient over time.

 

[Jocko]

Depends on the life expectancy of the solar panels, and whether or not they get less efficient over time.

And how prone his area is to hailstorms. Think it sucks when your power lines go down? That's nothing compared to finding 20 grand worth of pulverized silicon in your gutters.

 

[BPSCG]

ETA: Does it annoy anyone else when someone quotes an entire post to insert a one sentence response at the end?

No. You're the only one.

Welcome to the forum!

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

This has been a very interesting thread for me. Especially with Tricky's comments. Much of his information I have also been slowly Prying from my Father who is a manager for a company that makes large Turbines for the oil industry. I would be interested what you think about the 'peak oil' by word I have been hearing bandied about lately: i.e. have we reached it? if not when? What truly interests me though, is how little discussion there is of Solar and wind power. These are not trivial technologies IMO.

The so called oil peak is not quite the "drop off the cliff" moment that may have been bandied about. As concern over future oil supplies grows then the price goes up which increases the viability of more marginal fields thus increasing the supply. If there is a small measure of success in switching to non-carbon energy (solar, wind, hydro, even nuclear) then that "peak" goes even further into the distance.

Just to give you an idea, Exxon's current reserves (73 billion barrels) would allow it to pump oil at the current rate for 49 years. (figures from last weeks Economist Magazine) - hardly an impending disaster.

The current round of oil prices have nothing to do with current world demand they are driven mainly by risk concern about Iran and Nigeria and somewhat by Venezuela.

ANWR should be developed the current opposition to it is uninformed twaddle that is not based on preserving wilderness or the overabundant Caribou but instead is based (IMHO) on opposition to industrial society in general.

I personally recently priced a solar system for the home I am building here in Pennsylvania. To purchase and install a system that will slightly exceed my current yearly electrical power needs in the home I am renting now is around 20-25K US dollars depending on exactly what I have and who I have do it. My current rental home has Electric heat and all electric appliances and my electric bill averaged over the whole yearly cycle is approxmiately 200 US dollars per month. A loan for 25K would have me paying 250-300 per month for 5 years, which is slightly higher than my current electric bill BUT after those 5 years.. my energy is free!!

If you figure in the amortization costs for your equipment there will be a cost but it will be way lower than your electricity grid supplied electricity. You will also benefit from the dropping prices for Solar equipment so your replacement costs are likely to be much lower than your initial ones.

Here in Colorado I believe it should be mandatory (by code) for all new buildings to incoporate solar heating and energy - we have 300 sunny days a year here it is nuts that we do not take advantage of it.

Add to this the fact that my appliances are 10yr old energy hungry appliances and newer models have dramatically increased in efficiency and you start to understand why I am starting to feel this is the only way for me to go. I wish it were more common: given economies of scale for larger size solar cells and batteries and we could have some seriously cheap energy independence.

I totally agree with you

Now if only I could buy a relatively good sized (civic/cavalier) commuter electric car with at least a 40 mile range and I could be living entirely free except for parts, which thankfully there are fewer parts to break down in such a vehicle. I have been considering doing my own lead acid electric conversion of a used car recently, again if only the larger li-ion batts were a bit cheaper.

Not sure about your point here

 

[Rob Lister]

Feel free to be skeptical of my 'claim', sheesh you'd think I just said I was going to power my home from goddam ectoplasm. Go look up prices for yourself then, I'm not about to do it for you, especially after you imply I don't know how to do math. GE makes them, as well as BP solar and quite a few others now. Output is not steady and varies a lot dependant on time of year and sun exposure, etc.. but that's why it's good to have an on-grid system that draws power when you need it and pumps power back to the utility when you don't.

ETA: Does it annoy anyone else when someone quotes an entire post to insert a one sentence response at the end?

I was being generous. I actually think your claim is complete and utter bunk. I estimate you'll 37 panels (at $700 ea) just to break even on the best of days and only for about four hours a day (unless you intend on buying some sort of pointing mechinism). If you want to break even over an entire 24 hour period you'll need 6 times that number.

Now we're up to about $150,000.

Factor in rainy days, snowing days, cloudy days, the occasional hail storm and you can probably double that number again, depending on where you live.

This excludes the cost of the DC/AC converter/phase matcher you'll need to sell the excess back to power company.

This also excludes the useful life of the cells (est. 10-15 years avg)

Just sayin, maybe you should buy a windmill instead. :/

 

[The_Serpent]

Snipped the snark

I estimate you'll 37 panels (at $700 ea) just to break even on the best of days and only for about four hours a day (unless you intend on buying some sort of pointing mechinism). If you want to break even over an entire 24 hour period you'll need 6 times that number.

What size panel? Made by whom? Whats the peak output of the cell?

try this link on for size. ://256.com/solar/

These people had a 16K grant to help them bring a 36K cost down to a more manageable 19K, but their power needs are also 40% greater than mine. They also paid 3,000 for install which I won't need as I am an experienced electrical engineer. I will also likely do all the wiring inside the house for on-grid myself as well.

far cry from 150,000 bucks.

Oh and actually, I was planning on building a windmill turbine also, mostly as a for-fun type of project, but we do get a lot of wind in my part of PA so it might contribute significantly to our power as well (actually there are commercial power generating windmills on a ridge I can see from my office building).

 

[BPSCG]

Still waiting, Mark.

 

[Jocko]

Snipped the snark

What size panel? Made by whom? Whats the peak output of the cell?

try this link on for size. ://256.com/solar/

These people had a 16K grant to help them bring a 36K cost down to a more manageable 19K, but their power needs are also 40% greater than mine. They also paid 3,000 for install which I won't need as I am an experienced electrical engineer. I will also likely do all the wiring inside the house for on-grid myself as well.

far cry from 150,000 bucks.

Oh and actually, I was planning on building a windmill turbine also, mostly as a for-fun type of project, but we do get a lot of wind in my part of PA so it might contribute significantly to our power as well (actually there are commercial power generating windmills on a ridge I can see from my office building).

If it's such a great deal, why a grant instead of a loan? Surely it could be repaid with excess electricity? Generally people don't give you free money so you can save more money... at least in my experience.

 

[The_Serpent]

If it's such a great deal, why a grant instead of a loan? Surely it could be repaid with excess electricity? Generally people don't give you free money so you can save more money... at least in my experience.

Are you telling me you'd refuse a grant if offered? I sure as heck wouldn't Apprently MIT was offering one for Solar house projects and the people above (who live in MASS), gratefully accepted. I don't know if they took a loan out for the rest of it. I am figuring I'll see if I can get it included in the cost of building my home and just bump up my home loan from 130 to 155 or 160..etc. We'll see, I am in the early stages of planning here as my house project is likely a good 3 yrs away from breaking ground.

 

[Mark]

Still waiting, Mark.

I answered you, Beeps. The fact that you do not like the answer doesn't mean squat. I realize that to you if someone doesn't follow your script, that means they didn't answer...but the fact is you are a liar and I did answer. I just didn't give the answer that would allow you to parrot something in response.

Although it is true that you never answered mine...

But that is typcial and I didn't expect it.

 

[BPSCG]

I answered you, Beeps.

I acknowledged that possibility, Mark, when I wrote:

So, let's assume I was reading too hastily and glossed over your answer, and that you did indeed answer my query about the extent of the "destruction" drilling in the ANWR would cause. Please provide a link to that response, so I may read it and digest it.

The fact that you do not like the answer...

Mark, the problem is not that I don't like your answer. It's that I can't find your answer. So this is the third time I'm asking you to link to your own answer. Is that so terribly difficult?