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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Jack by the hedge said:
I don't grasp what the issues are with this Korean POWs story.

S. Korea appears to have got all upset, said it was supposed to be a secret, and demanded an apology. Ukraine so far as I know has said nothing. S. Korea next threatened to withdraw their ambassador and expel Ukraine's. Ukraine so far as I know has said nothing.

That's just weird. It rather sounds as if the Koreans might be flexing for some domestic political purpose. On the other hand it seems odd that the Ukrainians didn't defuse the situation straight away by just saying "Oops, sorry".

There's something else going on and I have no idea what it is.
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My guess is because the US are proving so untraliable over the last decade, S. Korea are pivoting closer to China to save their own skins.

Another genius TACO 5D chess move.
 
Russian fuel for the USA!

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.
Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!
Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.
This is a very big and important announcement.
Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon!

Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP
 
Andy_Ross said:
Russian fuel for the USA!

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.
Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!
Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.
This is a very big and important announcement.
Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon!

Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Click to expand...

Trump is the most miserable ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ bastard alive. He's now using our money to fund the Russian war machine, and he's announcing it like we should be ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ thrilled? He's killing Ukrainians for fuel and expecting a round of ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ applause?

Any energy company that touches this oil should be boycotted. Loudly.
 
Mike! said:
I think Zelensky should see to it that not a drop of fuel leaves any Russian refineries.
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Go after exclusively diesel refineries, if possible. Just crank it up to 11.

I'm not at all surprised that Putin knew exactly how to play Trump. Putin knows Trump doesn't want to get steamrolled in the elections so he appealed to his desperation. If Putin has all of this extra diesel then why:
Russia extended its ban on diesel and gas oil exports through the end of October 2026 to protect domestic supply, stabilize local fuel prices during the agricultural harvest, and rebuild reserves
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They don't even have the means to keep diesel in their own gas stations but we expect they're going to send out billions of barrels? Not a single ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ spineless bitch of a Republican has the nerve to speak out against this? I can't believe how far this country has sunk with that orange sack of anal discharge took office.
 
Q
plague311 said:
They don't even have the means to keep diesel in their own gas stations but we expect they're going to send out billions of barrels?
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If they can't export diesel because they're short of it, then they won't, so allowing them to do what they're not capable of doing won't make any difference. If they can export diesel but they don't have enough for domestic supply, then exporting what they need is going to cripple them.
 
The US is normally the world's largest exporter of diesel fuel. Why would it import Russian diesel? If Trump needs more diesel to placate angry voters, he could just hint that the oil companies ought to be selling very slightly less of it to foreigners.

US exported 1.5m barrels per day averaged over the last year. This deal he says he's struck with Putin is for a small fraction of that. About 120,000 barrels per day, sold to "the US and the world". That's actually a bit less than Russia is currently exporting anyway.

So he's done a fantastic Trump deal where Putin has told him they're going to sell less diesel for export, but Trump's claimed it as a great victory to secure American fuel supplies. What a complete nothingburger.
 
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Jack by the hedge said:
The US is normally the world's largest exporter of diesel fuel. Why would it import Russian diesel? If Trump needs more diesel to placate angry voters just hint that the oil companies ought to be selling very slightly less of it to foreigners.

US exported 1.5m barrels per day averaged over the last year. This deal he says he's struck with Putin is for a small fraction of that. About 120,000 barrels per day, sold to "the US and the world". That's actually a bit less than Russia is currently exporting anyway.

What a complete nothingburger.
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Even Norway produces 3 million barrels of oil a day, if memory serves. I guess Dump just came up with numbers that sounded big and counted on his cult to not question him.
 
icerat said:
not at all. They're getting faster, longer range, more AI
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See, this confuses me. The Geran 3/4 may be new players on the scene, but the Tomahawk has already been around for forty years and flies twice as fast. And it's one of many long range, high-subsonic cruise missiles currently in service around the world.

Hell, Moscow already has jet powered Kalibr missiles.

Maybe I just don't understand what your analyst means by "obsolete".

Weapons are generally about trade offs, not about binary obsolete/not obsolete criteria.

Anti-Geran interceptor won't become obsolete if they force Moscow to rely more heavily on more expensive, faster weapons. In fact, forcing cheap, slow missile spam out of the conversation might be exactly the plan for these new interceptors.
 
Ziggurat said:
Q

If they can't export diesel because they're short of it, then they won't, so allowing them to do what they're not capable of doing won't make any difference. If they can export diesel but they don't have enough for domestic supply, then exporting what they need is going to cripple them.
Click to expand...

Take it up with Trump, buddy. I didn't make the statement. He did. Twist yourself into all the semantic pretzels you want to make it make sense. I don't care.

Usually by the time you're done you've essentially tried telling us the words he said isn't at all what he means.
 
theprestige said:
See, this confuses me. The Geran 3/4 may be new players on the scene, but the Tomahawk has already been around for forty years and flies twice as fast. And it's one of many long range, high-subsonic cruise missiles currently in service around the world.
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We're at multiple generations of Geran-5 now

theprestige said:
Anti-Geran interceptor won't become obsolete if they force Moscow to rely more heavily on more expensive, faster weapons. In fact, forcing cheap, slow missile spam out of the conversation might be exactly the plan for these new interceptors.
Click to expand...
If the interceptor top speed is 480km/h (which is what SPY does now) and your (relatively) cheap drone now does 600km/h (which is what Geran-5 does) then head on interception is the only real option (and they're reportedly already doing exactly that). That's hard and reqires a lot of additional tech ... similar to patriot systems and missiles.

Now add in better AI autonomy and sensors and the Geran predicts and dodges. Both SPY and Geran use AI already ... but one side improves, the other side matches and improves. This will continue. A big challenge at the moment is the gerans going high altitude (10km) and then diving. SPY's ceiling is 4km.

It's a really small window to intercept akin to patriot vs ballistic ... so will probably (hopefully) be made obsolete by Freya.
 
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